Cheltenham Antepost

Francie Barrett · 30-11-2018 2:27pm #1

Not usually a fan of antepost betting, especially this far out from Cheltenham, but I can't help but have a bet on Samcro at 9/2 for the Champion Hurdle. With a run under its belt and some cut in the ground (but not too much), I think it comes on from that run and wins tomorrow in the Fighting Fifth against rival Buveur D'Air who is out for the first time since Cheltenham and is after a first time wind op. Have a small bet on it to win tomorrow to cover my Cheltenham bet too.

TheMilkyPirate · 30-11-2018 2:28pm

I'm firmly on board the Buveur d'air train tomorrow. Samcro hasn't done anything to convince me that he can beat him.

krustydoyle · 30-11-2018 9:02pm

Blow by Blow at 25s for the 4 miler

(backed it a few weeks ago)

bludcrazetiger · 30-11-2018 11:51pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

I'm firmly on board the Buveur d'air train tomorrow. Samcro hasn't done anything to convince me that he can beat him.

B d'air beat melon by a neck...
Samcro would have beat melon if he didn't fall by a lot more than a neck....if he didn't fall....

samcro also race fit for the clash.

Samcro wins it for me.

krustydoyle · 01-12-2018 1:55am

Just to add a few I've done a while back

Santini (RSA 9/1)
Mengli Khan (Arkle 20/1)
Summerville Boy (Champion Hurdle 14/1)
Getaway Katie Mai (Mares Novices 20/1)
Shattered Love (Gold Cup 25/1)

lemush · 01-12-2018 9:20am

bludcrazetiger wrote: »

B d'air beat melon by a neck...
Samcro would have beat melon if he didn't fall by a lot more than a neck....if he didn't fall....

samcro also race fit for the clash.

Samcro wins it for me.

They both fell 3 out so you cannot state that as fact.

gazza1 · 01-12-2018 9:48am

Won't be having a bet on the race but will watch with great interest.
Backed Summerville Boy @14s for the CH so hopefully gives a good account today.

RivetingRoger · 01-12-2018 12:11pm

BD beat Mick Jazz by a small margin, Elliot probably using that as a form line and thinking Samcro would bury a horse like Mick Jazz
With that in mind, the ground being softer than anticipated and BD's first run of the year, I too am in the Samcro camp

As for AP betting

Lalor/Malone Road would get my AP money except the prices are disgusting for AP betting in December

Slattsy · 01-12-2018 2:09pm

Decent start for Santini's ante post RSA backers

Into 7/2 now!!

madmoose · 01-12-2018 2:13pm

Love Santini but the market antepost is pathetic at that price. Plus we haven’t seen many for the RSA like Next Dest and Black Op.

BumperD · 01-12-2018 2:13pm

He made one mistake but loved the way he galloped to the line. Big stamp of a beast, surprised how weak a frame kilbricken storm looked beside him.

carq · 01-12-2018 2:16pm

gazza1 wrote: »

Won't be having a bet on the race but will watch with great interest.
Backed Summerville Boy @14s for the CH so hopefully gives a good account today.

Hoping he gives a poor account so his price gets back up to 14/16. Think he will be my horse for tge champ hurdle

Gringo180 · 01-12-2018 2:36pm

Bauvair Dair is a few lbs better when fresh I dnt expect him to see the whip in beating Samcro today.

Gringo180 · 01-12-2018 3:13pm

Thats why hes the champ

Slattsy · 01-12-2018 3:19pm

Think it's time to start giving BD some credit! And maybe Samcro is simply overhyped.

BumperD · 01-12-2018 3:23pm

BD was super today.

Auroras_encore · 01-12-2018 3:24pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Think it's time to start giving BD some credit! And maybe Samcro is simply overhyped.

What do you mean maybe overhyped? His neptune was ****e and got stuffed by bedrock the other day

carq · 01-12-2018 3:29pm

carq wrote: »

Hoping he gives a poor account so his price gets back up to 14/16. Think he will be my horse for tge champ hurdle

Just got sb at 24 on the exchange. Expect him to go off around 8/1 on the day

Fanny Wank · 01-12-2018 4:27pm

Auroras_encore wrote: »

What do you mean maybe overhyped? His neptune was ****e and got stuffed by bedrock the other day

The 2nd and 3rd from the Neptune both won Grade 1s the next time out.

He was hyped, end of. Maybe time will show people got very much carried away

EICVD · 01-12-2018 10:05pm

Auroras_encore wrote: »

What do you mean maybe overhyped? His neptune was ****e and got stuffed by bedrock the other day

He was hyped to win a Gold Cup though not a champion hurdle, if they had of just stuck to a novice at Punchestown in April he’d probably be odds on for the Drinmore tomorrow. Yes I’m bitterly disappointed how he was hammered today but I’m not giving up hope on him winning a Gold Cup, just got to wait an extra year now after this right off of a season.

ON ZEE BRIDLE · 02-12-2018 6:07pm

Samcro just doesnt have the gears to compete with BD, not sure why Elliot is still sticking with the CH route.Melon looks the only worthwhile contender but Mullins said he won't run him until softer ground over xmas.Laurina looks a good mare but she won a really weak race at the festival and this is a big step up in class, be interesting to see where she runs next.

Francie Barrett · 02-12-2018 10:54pm

ON ZEE BRIDLE wrote: »

not sure why Elliot is still sticking with the CH route.

When you listen to the comments that Elliot has made, it seems pretty clear to me that it's Eddie who's calling the shots as to where Samcro runs.

lemush · 03-12-2018 3:40am

Before anyone says it, Jezki has absolutely no chance of winning the country hurdle off close enough to top weight.

longshotvalue · 03-12-2018 8:38am

lemush wrote: »

Before anyone says it, Jezki has absolutely no chance of winning the country hurdle off close enough to top weight.

Too Late ive said it a few times already now. All in need now is someone to say i wouldn't back it with stolen money and i'm all in.

Backstreet Moyes · 03-12-2018 9:34am

Anybody have one horse they are backing weekly.

My friend told me to look at Never Adapts race last time and to back him for the Triumph.

I was very impressed and if he learns to settle he could be a very good horse.

Slattsy · 03-12-2018 9:44am

Nuts102 wrote: »

Anybody have one horse they are backing weekly.

My friend told me to look at Never Adapts race last time and to back him for the Triumph.

I was very impressed and if he learns to settle he could be a very good horse.

Not weekly, but consistently enough. It was Santini at mostly 9s & 8s.

I'll leave him off now at current price and see what happens come March. Hopefully Nico knows how to ride him properly now!!!

Slattsy · 03-12-2018 9:51am

Monalee for the Ryanair at 14s. Fairly strong on him. Bit of a risk, but I think if he lines up in March he's sub 4/1.

Blow by Blow for the marathon. On at 25s. I think his only aim this season is this race.

Paloma Blue for the Arkle. Few bob on at 20s. Disappointed with him the other day but I'll keep the faith. Henry knows what he's doing.

Jumped on the Annamix hype train at 16s.

I think Presenting Percy wins the Gold Cup fwiw. But no bets on him!

I think that's my lot.

kiers47 · 03-12-2018 10:21am

Just a general question on AP bets. Do people have no problem getting on antepost at this time of year? If so who is the best place to go with.
I wouldn't usually place an antepost bet until February. Or at least i haven't done for a few years. Went in to have a bet a few weeks ago in PP and they would only take 50 of a 100 quid bet i wanted.

Slattsy · 03-12-2018 10:34am

aidankkk wrote: »

Too Late ive said it a few times already now. All in need now is someone to say i wouldn't back it with stolen money and i'm all in.

I can see the Jezki angle. And as we all know, this horse is a stone better on proper spring ground. And still shoes a lot of ability.

I'd like to see him drop a few lbs, so hopefully Jessica places him well, a few no shoes in Grade 1

or look at putting up a good claimer on board in March.

Backstreet Moyes · 03-12-2018 11:20am

Slattsy wrote: »

Monalee for the Ryanair at 14s. Fairly strong on him. Bit of a risk, but I think if he lines up in March he's sub 4/1.

Blow by Blow for the marathon. On at 25s. I think his only aim this season is this race.

Paloma Blue for the Arkle. Few bob on at 20s. Disappointed with him the other day but I'll keep the faith. Henry knows what he's doing.

Jumped on the Annamix hype train at 16s.

I think Presenting Percy wins the Gold Cup fwiw. But no bets on him!

I think that's my lot.

Palonma blues run was too bad to be true and Henry's horses usually are better chasers than hurdlers.

Doesn't look a strong renewal would like to see him have another run before backing him but 20s could be big.

posturingpat · 03-12-2018 11:34am

aidankkk wrote: »

Too Late ive said it a few times already now. All in need now is someone to say i wouldn't back it with stolen money and i'm all in.

I wouldnt back it with stolen money.

EICVD · 03-12-2018 12:21pm

Nuts102 wrote: »

Anybody have one horse they are backing weekly.

My friend told me to look at Never Adapts race last time and to back him for the Triumph.

I was very impressed and if he learns to settle he could be a very good horse.

She’d be my fancy for the triumph right now anyway. Was over there for the weekend & Henderson mentioned in the course preview that she might run away with Barry. She blew her chance on the way to the start never mind bolting away from the field after the first! Have to be impressed how she still ran on for 3rd.

Kauto · 03-12-2018 12:34pm

Malone Road gone. Knee injury.

03-12-2018 12:48pm

Kauto wrote: »

Malone Road gone. Knee injury.

Has it been announced?

Thats a shame if true as he looked like a fine bumper and racing prospect.

Gavin "shels" · 03-12-2018 1:18pm

TheTorment wrote: »

Has it been announced?

Thats a shame if true as he looked like a fine bumper and racing prospect.

https://twitter.com/RacingPost/status/1069530219340591105

Charlie George · 11-12-2018 3:06am

What race will getabird run in Cheltenham, dropped in price for the Arkle but looked as if 2 mile 4 will be right up his street, hard to know with mullins but he has draconien for the arkle as well.

madmoose · 11-12-2018 7:06am

Charlie George wrote: »

What race will getabird run in Cheltenham, dropped in price for the Arkle but looked as if 2 mile 4 will be right up his street, hard to know with mullins but he has draconien for the arkle as well.

Draconian out for the season

piplip87 · 11-12-2018 7:20am

I can see Getabird missing the festival all together and maybe placed in a few grade ones at tracks he suits...

seoirsem · 11-12-2018 9:06am

I agree, Getabird going left handed is a no-no. They hinted that they might look for something at Limerick over Christmas and then maybe Punchestown in the Spring.

piplip87 · 13-12-2018 12:57am

Had my first nibble today.
I did Didtheyleaveuoutto for the Supreme. Hugely impressed in his bumpbers last season, didn't go according to plan in the Champion Bumper. Two from two this season and at 20s I hope it's a bargain.

Motivator · 13-12-2018 1:55am

piplip87 wrote: »

Had my first nibble today.
I did Didtheyleaveuoutto for the Supreme. Hugely impressed in his bumpbers last season, didn't go according to plan in the Champion Bumper. Two from two this season and at 20s I hope it's a bargain.

Is Quick Grabim likely to go for the Supreme rather than the Ballymore? I think the penny has dropped with this horse and if he puts in a similar performance to Fairyhouse at Christmas then he’ll be all the rage for March. He has a good turn of pace and if he rocks up to the Supreme he’ll have more experience on his side than any other horse in years in the Supreme. Look at all the winners of the Supreme for the last 10 years - I remember working it out last year and if I recall correctly the winner has had an average of 7 runs in their career inc. points runs. 16/1 is a terrible price but for an interest for the next few months he’d be the one I’d be backing. The unknown quantity of Annamix plus 90% of the rest of the horses in the Antepost market are of course the worry but what harm!

BumperD · 13-12-2018 2:14am

Plenty of good judges suggest Quickgrabim might struggle as the season progresses as good as he seemed in the Bar One. I tend to agree

madmoose · 13-12-2018 8:16am

piplip87 wrote: »

Had my first nibble today.
I did Didtheyleaveuoutto for the Supreme. Hugely impressed in his bumpbers last season, didn't go according to plan in the Champion Bumper. Two from two this season and at 20s I hope it's a bargain.

I fancies him for the bumper last season big time but the ground was poor as we know and he still ran well seeing he would have hated the conditions.

krustydoyle · 17-12-2018 8:15pm

Bet 365 just went NRNB BOG on these

Champion Hurdle
Champion Chase
Ryanair Chase
Stayers Hurdle
Gold Cup

Slattsy · 17-12-2018 8:53pm

krustydoyle wrote: »

Bet 365 just went NRNB BOG on these

Champion Hurdle
Champion Chase
Ryanair Chase
Stayers Hurdle
Gold Cup

Interesting..

IAMAMORON · 17-12-2018 9:13pm

This is my first post. However I have been perving this forum for a few years now.

Personally I love to get on, but I think Ante Post for Cheltenham is really for mugs. The festival is still 10 weeks away and there are still an awful lot of fences to be jumped in the mean time. Given what can happen to NH horses over the winter between training, stable bugs etc .,it does not make sense to me to be backing them at this stage, especially considering you do not get your money back if it fails to run.

Furthermore, the amount of waffle that gets bandied about in the next ten weeks about which novice hurdle such and such Gigginstown good thing is running in, has now become pedantic in my view. They don't even know themselves. I would rather save the € 10 or € 20 per week I am going to blow on some 33-1 fancy, which might not even run, and then have a good honest to be Jaysus bet of € 200 or so quid on a third favourite at 4-1 on the day. At least I know it is running and I can roar at the tv in peace for 5 minutes and get a bit of value for my bet.

NaiveMelodies · 17-12-2018 9:21pm

You prefer the short term buzz, that's fair enough.

I'd say most people posting their picks understand what an ante post bet involves though. 33/1 includes the risk of a NR etc..
Check out last years AP thread, some savage calls.

bludcrazetiger · 18-12-2018 12:42am

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

You prefer the short term buzz, that's fair enough.

I'd say most people posting their picks understand what an ante post bet involves though. 33/1 includes the risk of a NR etc..
Check out last years AP thread, some savage calls.

The 50/1 Labaik shout from a few years ago still haunts me.

Gringo180 · 18-12-2018 8:59am

bludcrazetiger wrote: »

The 50/1 Labaik shout from a few years ago still haunts me.

:cool:

Charlie George · 18-12-2018 3:24pm

krustydoyle wrote: »

Bet 365 just went NRNB BOG on these

Champion Hurdle
Champion Chase
Ryanair Chase
Stayers Hurdle
Gold Cup

What does bog mean.

BumperD · 18-12-2018 3:29pm

Best odds guaranteed

So if sp on day bigger you get that. Not a great concession as odds will likely contract on all bigger priced ones

Cheltenham Antepost

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