Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

28-11-2018 02:02PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting Scottish poll today - EU support up to 73%, and every constituency would vote Remain.

Interesting though that the no to independence camp lead by 10 points currently (if thats accurate), excluding the don't knows. How much do the Scots really love the EU I wonder as against a fall-back position re Brexit?

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#line

Professor Moriarty · 28-11-2018 02:02PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting Scottish poll today - EU support up to 73%, and every constituency would vote Remain.

Those levels are approaching Irish numbers!

The Telegraph has a poll today from Survation. Surprisingly, it's an argument against The Telegraph's own pro-Brexiteer line. Faced with a choice of May's deal, Remain or No Deal:

16% of voters would support May's agreement
28% would support No Deal
43% would support continued EU membership

josip · 28-11-2018 02:02PM

My concern for a crash out Brexit would be that the EU will be blamed by British media and politicians for "punishing the UK".
We've already seen that more than 50% of the population can be swayed by vacuous populism and I fear that with the harsh economic reality of a crash out Brexit that percentage will increase.
External countries who want a weak Europe, will be looking to take advantage of this in the event of a no deal Brexit.
I expect that the rift between the EU and the UK will only get larger and as things continue to deteriorate, the majority of the population will become even more entrenched, leading to a downward spiral of further deterioration.

Podge_irl · 28-11-2018 02:06PM

First Up wrote: »

As I understand it, the claim is that there are three routes in CDG; an open one for flights between Schengen countries, and two passport check routes - one for non-Europe flights and another for flights from non- Schengen/EEA countries.

I'm familiar with the first two but not the third.

Not different routes for different flights, for different passengers. You can funnel non-Schengen and non-EU flights into the same control route but most airports I have been in will have dedicated lanes for EU passengers. I assume that is what is being referenced.

ancapailldorcha · 28-11-2018 02:15PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I was listening to Brexitcast last night, and although they all commented on the fact that all EU leaders were adamant that the deal was the only one on offer, they all still said that nobody knows what the final deal will be until March.

Whilst of course there is a grain of truth to that, it just strikes me as the UK are still of the view that everything is still to play for.

They took this view of the December agreement, that it was nothing really. But the deal TM has brought back includes all of the December agreement. It seems to me that the EU have taken the view that the UK need to be slow walked through this process, allow them the time and space to come to terms with each part of it, whilst maintaining the central premise throughout.

This deal is now the basis for any future negotiations. If the deal is rejected in the HoC, TM won't be starting from a blank piece of paper. The EU will ask which parts are the problem, what TM needs to change and what is she willing to give up to get it.

Many MP's seem to be talking as if this deal can simply be thrown out and they start all over again.

How are you finding the Brexitcast? Remainiacs is the only one I listen to which is obviously horrendously biased but excellent nonetheless.

I think part of this is posturing on the EU's part. Not unreasonably of course but there's only so much silly Brexiteer antics they'll stomach.

The deal needs to be ratified by at least 28 parliaments and possibly some regional assemblies. All the while March 2019 draws nearer.

The EU holds all of the cards and it's basically the Brexiteers' who got the country into this position. So much for nationalism.

An Ciarraioch · 28-11-2018 02:15PM

Deleted User wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting Scottish poll today - EU support up to 73%, and every constituency would vote Remain.

Interesting though that the no to independence camp lead by 10 points currently (if thats accurate), excluding the don't knows. How much do the Scots really love the EU I wonder as against a fall-back position re Brexit?

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#line

It's notable that Sturgeon has been canny not to go all in, promoting SM and CU if May's deal is defeated, a People's Vote if that doesn't gain traction, with Indyref 2 only occurring once Brexit has been concluded.

briany · 28-11-2018 02:20PM

josip wrote: »

My concern for a crash out Brexit would be that the EU will be blamed by British media and politicians for "punishing the UK".
We've already seen that more than 50% of the population can be swayed by vacuous populism and I fear that with the harsh economic reality of a crash out Brexit that percentage will increase.
External countries who want a weak Europe, will be looking to take advantage of this in the event of a no deal Brexit.
I expect that the rift between the EU and the UK will only get larger and as things continue to deteriorate, the majority of the population will become even more entrenched, leading to a downward spiral of further deterioration.

Of course Brexiteers are not going to admit any real fault on their part if and when Brexit becomes a disaster that even Nigel Farage can't put a brave face on. That's about as much of a given as you can get.

But the relationship has to bottom out at some stage. It can't just keep spiralling down and down, unless you're talking war, whether civil in the UK or between the UK and EU nations.

Leroy42 · 28-11-2018 02:36PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

How are you finding the Brexitcast? Remainiacs is the only one I listen to which is obviously horrendously biased but excellent nonetheless.

It is as biased as Remainiacs but with less wit or information.

It seems far more interested in the reality TV show of Brexit rather than a more serious look a the implications. They seem very biased in favor of the UK spin on everything. Never questioning ust how the hell did it come to all this and asking the real questions about how TM, Davis et al have made such a complete hames of the whole thing.

Still, I like to listen to it to get some other perspective

trellheim · 28-11-2018 02:37PM

Theory

Intro
1) Hammond saying all options are worse than remain.
2) TM knows this will never get through the House
3) Clock is ticking
4) EU will not budge on the deal
5) No deal is not an option

So :
If you wanted to put money on a bet : the only thing left to do is vote to revoke A50 ! but it will happen on the 25th March or some stupidly short timeline ( Chaos before and after of course ).

Assuming they are allowed do so of course

Now I can't help but wonder if this is the game thats being played unless TM is playing 4d chess and knows the tories and enough Labour will roll over when push literally comes to shove.

An Ciarraioch · 28-11-2018 02:42PM

Latest Survation poll indicates 50% of Tory voters now support May's deal, and 62% want their MP to approve it:

http://twitter.com/Survation/status/1067593501066575872

http://twitter.com/Survation/status/1067593937412677632

Strazdas · 28-11-2018 02:57PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Latest Survation poll indicates 50% of Tory voters now support May's deal, and 62% want their MP to approve it:

http://twitter.com/Survation/status/1067593501066575872

http://twitter.com/Survation/status/1067593937412677632

Those figures would only be broadly in line with where Tory MPs are at the moment though. Virtually the only MPs going to vote for the deal are about 200 Conservative MPs, so the poll doesn't tell us a huge amount, only that Tory voters and MPs are split on roughly similar lines.

LuckyLloyd · 28-11-2018 02:58PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Latest Survation poll indicates 50% of Tory voters now support May's deal, and 62% want their MP to approve it:

http://twitter.com/Survation/status/1067593501066575872

http://twitter.com/Survation/status/1067593937412677632

What's the trend on that?

An Ciarraioch · 28-11-2018 03:04PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Latest Survation poll indicates 50% of Tory voters now support May's deal, and 62% want their MP to approve it:

http://twitter.com/Survation/status/1067593501066575872

http://twitter.com/Survation/status/1067593937412677632

What's the trend on that?

13% straight swing with Q1, no indication with Q2.

Strazdas · 28-11-2018 03:07PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

What's the trend on that?

Here you go, support for the deal up 10% among the general public (but support still only at 37%)

Dyr · 28-11-2018 03:08PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Latest Survation poll indicates 50% of Tory voters now support May's deal, and 62% want their MP to approve it:

http://twitter.com/Survation/status/1067593501066575872

http://twitter.com/Survation/status/1067593937412677632

Shows how mental polling is:

15% don't like the deal but want their MP to approve it.

RobMc59 · 28-11-2018 03:14PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yes, we'll fight them on the beaches etc. ad nauseam.

Why would what is considered patriotic to some make you feel nauseous?

BonnieSituation · 28-11-2018 03:26PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Why would what is considered patriotic to some make you feel nauseous?

The "whoosh" from your question is making me nauseous.

---

But to answer, I'd say a lot of people and especially a lot of Irish would find British nationalism in almost any form particularly sickening. I don't think it requires any leap of faith to come to that conclusion.

Water John · 28-11-2018 03:29PM

Nigel Dodds supports Keith Starmer in looking for the Govn't to honour the instruction of Parliament and release the full legal advice.

LuckyLloyd · 28-11-2018 03:45PM

What do they think the legal advice will say? Is there any leaks / informed speculation on how it helps the Brexiteer case?

Peregrinus · 28-11-2018 03:47PM

trellheim wrote: »

In a no-deal scenario they crash out of the CTA or do I have that right . Albeit the CTA legislation does go back to 1920 on both sides.

Nope. Couple of misconceptions:

1. There is no "CTA legislation"; it rests on policy and administrative agreements.

2. The CTA as we now have it only goes back to the 1950s.

3. But, nevertheless, it's not dependent on EU membership or EU legislation on either side. So a no-deal crash-out by the UK doesn't automatically end the CTA.

4. But it could put it under pressure, depending on what the UK chooses to do with their newly-taken-back "sovereignty". If they impose visa requirements or similar on any (or all) EU citizens then the CTA with Ireland becomes problematic for them, since it provides an easy route for EU citizens to evade visa checks.

5. How much this matters, though, depends on how much the UK decides to rely on visa checks at borders. For which, see below.

keane2097 wrote: »

Slightly off topic but maybe someone can give me the five line version of what the downsides to Schengen are that kept Ireland and the UK out of it in the first place?

Most countries on the mainland have relatively light border controls, but relatively extensive internal controls (population registration, identity papers, that kind of thing). This has been the way for a long time.

By contrast, the UK and Ireland have taken advantage of their island status to mostly control migration at borders, and haven't needed to introduce internal population controls.

So there was a concern that if we joined Schengen there might be a mismatch between the relatively lightly-controlled borders of Schengen countries and the absence of internal controls in the UK and Ireland. People could get into the Schengen area relatively easily, and they travel to the UK or Ireland where their lack of long-term residence rights would not be easily detected or enforced.

Basically, we got to keep the Common Travel Area, which was seen as its own a mini-Schengen, with tougher border controls but lighter internal controls than big Schengen next door. It was accepted that it worked better for us because we are islands.

Ironically, over the past few years the UK has in fact been moving more to a mainland model, with the "hostile environment" policy of requiring people to demonstrate their residence/employment rights internally, when taking up employment, renting accommodation, registering at schools or GP practices, etc. So, if the UK were staying in the Union, the case for the two of us having our own mini-Schengen would be getting somewhat weaker. The more mini-Schengen looks like big Schengen, the less case there is for having the two separate.

With the UK leaving, though, this move by them to a continental model of enforcing migration controls probably won't lead to pressure to end the separate CTA. There'll be no question of the UK joining Schengen, and with the priority according to keeping the Irish border open the EU will not put pressure on Ireland to join Schengen and end the CTA. So this would only happen if (a) the UK ended the CTA, which seems unlikely, or (b) the UK changed its mind about Brexit and in a fit of euro-enthusiasm decided to join Schengen, which seems even more unlikely.

Professor Moriarty · 28-11-2018 03:54PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Why would what is considered patriotic to some make you feel nauseous?

It's important not to confuse patriotism with nationalism.

Peregrinus · 28-11-2018 03:59PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Why would what is considered patriotic to some make you feel nauseous?

Well, that depends on what they consi8der patriotic, surely? In this case we are discussing people who might think that there was some meaningful parallel between (a) the UK leaving the EU and as a result being treated as a non-Member, and (b) an armed invasion by Nazi troops. That parallel would make me feel pretty nauseous, but perhaps you have a stronger stomach than I do.

First Up · 28-11-2018 04:10PM

Podge_irl wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

As I understand it, the claim is that there are three routes in CDG; an open one for flights between Schengen countries, and two passport check routes - one for non-Europe flights and another for flights from non- Schengen/EEA countries.

I'm familiar with the first two but not the third.

Not different routes for different flights, for different passengers. You can funnel non-Schengen and non-EU flights into the same control route but most airports I have been in will have dedicated lanes for EU passengers. I assume that is what is being referenced.

For intra- Schengen flights there are no passport checks. It doesn't matter where the passengers are from.

For flights arriving from outside Schengen there are passport checks for everyone. Most airports have EU and non-EU queues but everyone gets checked.

For flights from Ireland and the UK into Schengen, everyone gets checked. There may be EU and non-EU lines but these are the only intra-EU flights for which passport checks apply.

RobMc59 · 28-11-2018 04:12PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, that depends on what they consi8der patriotic, surely? In this case we are discussing people who might think that there was some meaningful parallel between (a) the UK leaving the EU and as a result being treated as a non-Member, and (b) an armed invasion by Nazi troops. That parallel would make me feel pretty nauseous, but perhaps you have a stronger stomach than I do.

I think bonniesituations reasonings are closer the mark,which is unfortunate as it makes reasonable discussion difficult.

flatty · 28-11-2018 06:06PM

I wonder whether a second referendum is actually becoming a possibility.
Mcdonnell has suggested as much today. That's both of jc's right hand men in favour.

flatty · 28-11-2018 06:08PM

I only say this, as snp, lib dems, and several tory rebels would support one. If Labour whipped it, there would be the vast majority of Labour mp's, and it would, in fact, offer the dup a ladder out of the hole they've dug themselves into.

Leroy42 · 28-11-2018 06:14PM

flatty wrote: »

I wonder whether a second referendum is actually becoming a possibility.
Mcdonnell has suggested as much today. That's both of jc's right hand men in favour.

I really cannot see it happening. Quite apart from the lack of MP's calling for it, I think it sets a dangerous precedent going forward.

Each government gets it power from the vote of the people, they are pretty much allowed to get away with anything during the time as people voted for them. This would basically be admitting that the HoC cannot govern the country.

What is the knock on effect of that?

I mean this only in the context of the UK, normal democracies could see the value. Its akin to the POTUS, once voted in it is almost impossible to remove them due to going against the vote of the people.

The voters in the UK decided to leave, the HoC now need to inact that wish.

Podge_irl · 28-11-2018 06:15PM

First Up wrote: »

For intra- Schengen flights there are no passport checks. It doesn't matter where the passengers are from.

For flights arriving from outside Schengen there are passport checks for everyone. Most airports have EU and non-EU queues but everyone gets checked.

For flights from Ireland and the UK into Schengen, everyone gets checked. There may be EU and non-EU lines but these are the only intra-EU flights for which passport checks apply.

Peregrinus wrote: »

Since the checks that Schengen countries carry out on non-Schengen EU/EEA citizens are quite different from the checks that they carry out on third-country citizens, many (most?) international airports have separate queuing/processing for the two groups. So choose the right airport, and this shouldn't be too big a problem.

Yes. None of which contradicts what I said above or what was said by Peregrinus. There is separate queuing for EU passengers which mitigates (though obviously does not eliminate) the issue with long haul flights coming in at the same time as you.

Leroy42 · 28-11-2018 06:18PM

Mark Carney has just released the BoE report into the possible effects of Brexit. Jebus, he ain't pulling any punches!

GDP drops 8%
House Prices fall 30%
Commercial Property price fall 48%
Sterling fall 25%
Unemployment rise to 7.5%
Inflation to 6.5%

Not sure of the timeline of these.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/28/brexit-pmqs-may-corbyn-hammond-economic-analysis-confirms-that-leaving-eu-will-make-uk-poorer-politics-live

LeinsterDub · 28-11-2018 06:19PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Mark Carney has just released the BoE report into the possible effects of Brexit. Jebus, he ain't pulling any punches!

GDP drops 8%
House Prices fall 30%
Commercial Property price fall 48%
Sterling fall 25%
Unemployment rise to 7.5%
Inflation to 6.5%

Not sure of the timeline of these.

Do you have a link? What kind of brexit?

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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