Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Seth Brundle

trellheim wrote: »

I wonder if power sharing in NI returning would change anything. Karen Bradley on QT last week was as useless as it gets

Aah come on. She needs a bit more time to get used to the role. Sure it's not that long ago when she learnt that nationalists and unionists don't vote outside their own groupings!

An Ciarraioch

Seth Brundle wrote: »

trellheim wrote: »

I wonder if power sharing in NI returning would change anything. Karen Bradley on QT last week was as useless as it gets

Aah come on. She needs a bit more time to get used to the role. Sure it's not that long ago when she learnt that nationalists and unionists don't vote outside their own groupings!

Of course, NI SoS has always been the UK equivalent of a Mongolian ambassador role - Tom King, Peter Brooke and Shaun Woodward, anyone?

Rhineshark

https://news.sky.com/story/pm-visits-wales-and-ni-at-start-of-frantic-fortnight-to-sell-brexit-deal-11564670

May is in for possibly the most gruelling two weeks yet. None of that sounds like it's going to be fun. Especially in light of the current pro-/anti-deal numbers.

She's going to get pilloried in Scotland. And the May/Corbyn debate will be full of irony but utterly lacking in use.

serfboard

Rhineshark wrote: »

She's going to get pilloried in Scotland.

Yeah - even the Scottish Tories aren't in favour of her deal.

Water John

Her tour is aimed at the public putting pressure on their MPs to reduce the number voting against the Deal. If she can keep the differential low, even while losing, that will determine future direction. So, the differential is what everyone is watching.

serfboard

Water John wrote: »

Her tour is aimed at the public putting pressure on their MPs to reduce the number voting against the Deal. If she can keep the differential low, even while losing, that will determine future direction. So, the differential is what everyone is watching.

From The Guardian article posted earlier, the differential is currently 186.

She'll be some woman if she gets a substantial number of them to flip.

Project Fear? I think she'll be preaching Project Catastrophe.

Tell me how

serfboard wrote: »

From The Guardian article posted earlier, the differential is currently 186.

She'll be some woman if she gets a substantial number of them to flip.

Project Fear? I think she'll be preaching Project Catastrophe.

I agree. Is there anything that could happen on a global or national scale which would cause people to look favourably on the deal?

I wonder does she think she is on a fools errand at this point but has to play the part?

RobMc59

Water John wrote: »

Her tour is aimed at the public putting pressure on their MPs to reduce the number voting against the Deal. If she can keep the differential low, even while losing, that will determine future direction. So, the differential is what everyone is watching.

She seems to be in denial-the flack she's taking and still persisting with the same plan despite not one agreeing with her is ridiculous.

Rhineshark

RobMc59 wrote: »

She seems to be in denial-the flack she's taking and still persisting with the same plan despite not one agreeing with her is ridiculous.

While yes, there's not much else she can do.

Sam Russell

Well, she cannot reduce expectations.

If she loses by 'only' 50 votes, it will give her mission the chance to win at the second go.

igCorcaigh

I have to feel sorry for TM.
Well, as sympathy for Tories goes.

Anthracite

RobMc59 wrote: »

She seems to be in denial-the flack she's taking and still persisting with the same plan despite not one agreeing with her is ridiculous.

Yeah, but she's been in this ridiculous situation for quite a while now. I wonder why she ever boxed herself (and the UK) with her ridiculous red lines.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why would EFTA allow Britain to join on a temporary basis? There is nothing for them to gain and Norway has already said they would be against temporary membership. Also, it's not a simple matter of signing up - it would take a year to sort out the legalities. It also requires acceptance of the four freedoms and doesn't fully address the Irish border question.

EFTA members have their own red lines. In more detail here.

And there's 38 trade deals all over the place to sort out, including Mongolia.

And the Southern African Customs Union , the UK spent a few billion to get that one.

BonnieSituation

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Of course, NI SoS has always been the UK equivalent of a Mongolian ambassador role - Tom King, Peter Brooke and Shaun Woodward, anyone?

Mo Mowlem, Peter Hain, Patrick Mayhew...

Dymo

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I have to feel sorry for TM.
Well, as sympathy for Tories goes.

Why?
She enacted Article 50 when she didn't have too
Didn't have a plan when she did.
She called a general election when she didn't need too
Invited the DUP as a coalition partner
Appointed 2 Brexit secretaries who didn't know anything about the EU and strategies who both stabbed her in the back
Appointed Boris Johnson to foreign sectary, one of the highest posts in the land and constantly made fun of her polices.
Chequers!!!
Created her own red lines and wouldn't change
Doing every thing to appease Hardline Brexiters ERG
Constantly contradicts her self and even last weekend in her letter committed herself to the huge Brexit dividend for the NHS

There the points I can think off the top of my head, the woman is a career politician who knew what the role of Prime Minister was before taking the post.

And this is what she gets by saying okay to both sides, a deal no one is happy with.

A Dub in Glasgo

serfboard wrote: »

Yeah - even the Scottish Tories aren't in favour of her deal.

There is no separate party known as the Scottish Tories... they are the Tories in Scotland and only a couple will rock the boat against May (and totally ignore the wishes of those in Scotland!)

Water John

It looks like close to 100 Tory MPs voting against. Some suggestion that it might not even be put to a vote, from Tom Newton Dunn.

A Dub in Glasgo

Apparantly May is in Glasgow city centre tomorrow, what are the chances that she wonders around the streets looking for feedback on her deal? I am in Glasgow city centre tomorrow and I doubt I will get anywhere near her entourage

See this response to her letter

https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1067481661867257856

Mr.Nice Guy

Watched Newsnight as they discussed with the Icelandic foreign minister how EFTA would work for the UK.

Seems they're still arguing amongst themselves over what they would like, and are content with wishing away the backstop.

An Ciarraioch

A laughable Daily Mail poll question: "Would staying in the EU be humiliating?"

http://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1067543861134848000

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A laughable Daily Mail poll question: "Would staying in the EU be humiliating?"

http://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1067543861134848000

Ha! The question seems to be if the deal is better than crashing out as that is what is on offer, her deal or no deal. There is no remain on offer so I would be astonished if the public is of the opinion that no deal is the best thing to do. I have not read the article so it may be that remain was offered, but the wording seems curious on the front page at least.

prinzeugen

Peregrinus wrote: »

France has six "overseas countries and territories" which are in a special relationship with the EU, though not part of it. Spain has one. The UK has thirteen.

Where are the thirteen UK territories on the back of a €50 note? And the French territories are EU members. They use the Euro and EU citizens don't require a visa to visit them.

You should really check that one out..

Anthracite

prinzeugen wrote: »

Where are the thirteen UK territories on the back of a €50 note? And the French territories are EU members. They use the Euro and EU citizens don't require a visa to visit them.

You should really check that one out..

Um...you've been proven completely wrong on this. Best to move on, I'd suggest.

prinzeugen

Anthracite wrote: »

Um...you've been proven completely wrong on this. Best to move on, I'd suggest.

I suggest you should read..

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_member_state_territories_and_the_European_Union

Sorry for upsetting the echo-chamber with facts.

"
According to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, both primary and secondary European Union law applies automatically to these territories, with possible derogations to take account of their "structural social and economic situation (...) which is compounded by their remoteness, insularity, small size, difficult topography and climate, economic dependence on a few products, the permanence and combination of which severely restrain their development".[4] All form part of the European Union customs area, however some fall outside of the Schengen Area and the European Union Value Added Tax Area."

6 French, 1 Spanish, 2 Portuguese, Zero British.

A Dub in Glasgo

prinzeugen wrote: »

I suggest you should read..

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_member_state_territories_and_the_European_Union

Sorry for upsetting the echo-chamber with facts.

"
According to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, both primary and secondary European Union law applies automatically to these territories, with possible derogations to take account of their "structural social and economic situation (...) which is compounded by their remoteness, insularity, small size, difficult topography and climate, economic dependence on a few products, the permanence and combination of which severely restrain their development".[4] All form part of the European Union customs area, however some fall outside of the Schengen Area and the European Union Value Added Tax Area."

6 French, 1 Spanish, 2 Portuguese, Zero British.

What is your point?

prinzeugen

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

What is your point?

Go back a few pages. I am not going to repeat myself.

McGiver

trellheim wrote:

While the EU project causes many problems for member states ( see EU Army and increased Federalism , long list, take your pick) somehow the other 27 don't have a problem staying in. If a condition of staying in was driving on the right ( for example - I was going to say Schengen but rolled back from that lol ) can be the screeching from the Dail would be long and loud . But would we leave the EU over it ? Also leaving with no say and becoming a rule taker - and no matter what anyone says I just cant see them getting a fabulous trade deal cos why doesnt Norway get that ?

EU army and federalism aren't problems but solutions And they are theoretical and hypothetical respectively as of now.

And EFTA members in fact have their own FTAs, but what is important, and I mentioned it in the past, is that EFTA members are de iure (LI, NI, IS) and de facto (CH) part of the EEA and their regular regimes are aligned with the EU via the EEA. So they can make FTAs but these FTAs are highly aligned to the EU regulatory regime not undermining it or diverging from it. Whereas UK would like diverge and create their own regulatory regime, which would be expected to be generally looser than that of the EU - and that's the problem.

prinzeugen

McGiver wrote: »

EU army and federalism aren't problems but solutions And they are theoretical and hypothetical respectively as of now.

And EFTA members in fact have their own FTAs, but what is important, and I mentioned it in the past, is that EFTA members are de iure (LI, NI, IS) and de facto (CH) part of the EEA and their regular regimes are aligned with the EU via the EEA. So they can make FTAs but these FTAs are highly aligned to the EU regulatory regime not undermining it or diverging from it. Whereas UK would like diverge and create their own regulatory regime, which would be expected to be generally looser than that of the EU - and that's the problem.

I can predict that the EU will tell Ireland that it must join Schengen in Britex+2 years.

That will kill off the UK-Ireland CTA and will mean a real bricks and mortar border with the north.

And the Dail will no doubt roll over to the EU demands and blame the British.

Capt'n Midnight

Just in case anyone was wondering
Food warehouses 'almost full' ahead of Brexit

Which leaves the question of what will happen to the less prepared companies with four months to go.

prinzeugen

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Just in case anyone was wondering
Food warehouses 'almost full' ahead of Brexit

Which leaves the question of what will happen to the less prepared companies with four months to go.

Considering the amount of fresh food brought in by air these days.. Not much. Warehouses would be full at this time of year anyway. Its called Christmas!!