Buying bitcoins

makeorbrake wrote: »

This (the SEC decision) was known about a long time ago....so how is it suddenly a dramatic piece of news the last few days..

Well, there are two possible outcomes - ETF/No ETF - both mean profit for the wealthy or those with the means to trade news earlier (Bloomberg Pro users get news earlier than anybody else as it can be used to set alerts for pre-defined keywords or combinations thereof, like a fancy instantaneous finance RSS feed, costs ~$25k a year for a terminal).
There's no point buying in and causing a run up too soon before the date, might as well let the market lay entrenched in suicidal despair and buy at cheaper spot prices. If ETF is confirmed there'll probably be typical crypto movements selling the news and they can take advantage of that again. Or maybe they start that movement themselves because they're patient and know how stupid the average crypto trader is ("These guys sure like buying back higher!"). They can sell a portion of whatever they've bought and cause mass panic, $1b of a BTC sell-off would drive it back under $6k in a day or two, there's not that much buy pressure and bulls will pull their buy walls to make sure they're not getting their longs minced if they're leveraged.
If the ETF fails they'll sell before average crypto users have a chance to.
Win/Win. For them. And ultimately hodlers. Anybody trading this kind of news based on TA and without inside info is well past "borderline retarded".

Trading based on the barely-there fundamentals of crypto is gambling. Day-trading crypto based on memelines is an extra layer of gambling on top, margin on top of that multiplies the risk. Trading news in a game that wealthy people explicitly do not want you to win is like a coinflip kamikaze mission.

Also, there's a CME futures expiration date tomorrow, there's a good chance we could see a pull-back in the next day or two depending on who wins that gamble.

makeorbrake wrote: »

Well, there's a third category - they can just delay the decision and kick the can down the road for another 45 days or so. Not sure how that news is likely to be interpreted...i guess a mixed unclear reaction?...no different to what the thoughts are right now..

Option 'No ETF' is always a temporary thing so includes the Option 3 can-kick to my eyes. I can't see how they can keep it from happening at this stage - their regulatory cconcerns have to be met at some point, just a matter of when.

makeorbrake wrote: »

What I'm wondering is - is a run up or down already more or less formed by the time they're done? Is there an opportunity to get in before other amateurs in time to gain on a price run up?

The rails for an up or downswing are set up but these millionaires and billionaires putting their private money in before anything happens will have quants and traders analysing every tick and repositioning of walls, they'll be alert. They're used to a market dominated by small percentage gains so the ease with which they can flip for 5-10% gains with big money on the table is like a dream for them.

makeorbrake wrote: »

On TA, despite all the warnings, I'm taking a look at it. It doesn't claim to read tea leaves but it's totally disconnected from 'the news'. It's an indicator of 'probabilities' rather than a set of analysis tools that claims to predict anything. It most certainly can't be any worse than following the garbage 'news'. Additionally, there's an element of self fulfilled prophecy with it as if people use it, then it reinforces all of these resistance and support lines, etc.
That said, I'd be more about approaching this decision in a 'if-then' type of way.

TA works fine until it doesn't, it only works when the market acts kind of normally (well, as normally as it can). Every dump or mooning destroys it and leaves you sad for watching the charts so closely.
Case in point, me looking at charts - I could have made a decent sum of money with GoChain recently if I'd only held, instead it was moving sideways and I got bored of watching bots push the price up and down - at the same exact time every couple of hours ffs, how could I resist?
Instead of a 500% gain I ended up with a paltry 30% gain and a heavy heart.

makeorbrake wrote: »

...you seem to have a better process in terms of primary fundamental analysis that works for you. I have not been able to muster this together in a way that I'd have confidence in it. Then again, it may be that I'm lacking a background in the tech generally that serves you well in carrying out that analysis..

1. I got lucky. I've also been unlucky and have been burnt. No exit-scams (yet) but product delays and impatient dumpers have hobbled some of my litany of shítcoins. The craziest/best thing about this market is you can have 1 good hit out 10 with the other being 9 relatively dismal failures and that one good pick can have you in profit.

makeorbrake wrote: »

I still don't understand how futures are affecting the market. Basically isn't it a case that it's the amount between long and short futures at the settlement stage that is relevant? If this amount isn't all that sizeable, how does it affect the actual market? I'm not seeing it.

The futures don't directly affect the market but traders can affect the market to affect the outcome of the futures in order to skim more profits. I'd be surprised to learn talented traders/quants/whales weren't taking advantage. Maybe they aren't.
It's a case of them having their cake and eating it in my eyes. Or the futures are the icing to their cake. Whatever the case, they're having cake & it's tasty and it scares me, because while I'm a glutton I hate leveraging my cake and then having my cake taken away from me. I'd much rather hold onto my cake (which - unreasonably enough for cake - has somehow gotten tastier with time. Could be an Xmas cake?) and sell it to someone else who's hungry for it in the future just like every other property owner who waits for their market to heat up before selling.

Bonus cake pic.

An illuminating post as always Grindle....particularly the confectionery section

In essence, you're saying that you can't really get particulary comfy in doing any type of short term trade except maybe hitting upon a diamond amongst some turd coins at the ICO stage.

I was always of a mind to stay long for the most part. I just have cause to move some $ out of an exchange and back through crypto ...so is the only reason that's brought me to checkout a few shorter term plays. Have gotten away with it this time but may not be so lucky next time....but then at previous prices, i was happy to hold it. Wouldn't be so sure about right now as I feel it will drop down again just yet.

The futures thing I guess i was only looking from one side of the equation and not the other.

grindle wrote: »

Option 'No ETF' is always a temporary thing so includes the Option 3 can-kick to my eyes. I can't see how they can keep it from happening at this stage - their regulatory cconcerns have to be met at some point, just a matter of when.

Sure - it's an inevitability - especially with the demand rising from their side of the fence - but it certainly doesn't have to be over the next few weeks.

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Absolutely.

You have to share, any projects outside (or inside) the top 200 you have your eye on? obviously out of the ICO stage

Sometimes a coin will gnaw away at me, I just have to buy it, even a tiny amount (personally I hold, I don't dare attempt buying/selling)

I still have my eye on GoChain but waiting to enter at or under 0.0001

That buy may never hit but I know there are a ton of people who've bought at 0.00004 so there's still a lot of potentially impatient people waiting to dump and the sell wall currently looks much more imposing than the buy wall. Maybe that's part of somebody else's game?
Could easily be 60% loss or up 500% within a week so this is obviously not advice either way.
Their Telegram seems small enough, #8.9k - until you see that they had an airdrop in China and they've got 36k+Chinese on their own separate Telegram.
It's literally an unabashed ETH clone with far fewer nodes based out of separate businesses as a means of decentralisation (KuCoin being one of those nodes).

As an ETH clone any current ETH devs can copy/paste their code to GoChain and have their DApp working as if stage 2 of Casper had arrived, even if only as a temp measure until ETH's scaling is in place. Every update ETH gets, GO gets and they'll be keeping it that way - they want to be a scaling solution alongside ETH, not a blatant competitor.
They've got a couple of ICO's coming their way which could affect the price enormously - a $30m cap ICO on ETH barely dents ETH's cap, a $30m cap ICO on GO (if the ICO is popular) would drive the price up enormously, it would require an enormous coordinated effort for it not to. If people want GoldenShítTokenX and need $30m worth of GO to fund it while GO's cap is currently $33m... If they get a big ICO to launch on their platform then GO is a veritable moon mission in itself.

Neufund. A community funded VC firm, your tokens entitle you to a share of any profits and I'd think "eh, anybody could do that or pretend to do that" until I saw Binance are involved (though they still aren't listed there yet) and their list of contributors (for picking firms/companies to fund) is a who's who list of shít-hot devs and tech bigwigs (scroll down).

Aeon if privacy coins don't get crippled by regulations. Works like Monero but faster and cheaper, Smooth (XMR Core dev) is the lead dev here but it is slow moving, sometimes gets used to test ideas which aren't considered to be appropriate for XMR yet. Litecoin to XMR's Bitcoin in a way but this market is so small that a bull market could see developers and a community swarm towards it if they deem it to be a more appropriate concern while XMR's fees get higher (high fees aren't useful to those terrible markets privacy coins get used on, absolutely awful...are you hearing me, FBI? Really terrible use-case, eugh! Why on earth should people want fungible, usable money, to be able to spend as they wish, so gross, I mean... Makes me sick. Privacy and freedom, makes me sick.) Not saying it could or should overtake XMR but it could easily hit 1/10 of it's cap.

Metronome. Kind of like WAN, has blockchain interoperability as it's focus. May work, may not. Has J.Garzik as head dev - he's a bit of a slime but he's also a hard worker and one of the few BTC devs who isn't a maximalist. ICO distribution was obscene though, basically 50% of the tokens lay in the hands of 3 buyers, stupid Dutch auction ICO.

There are other shítcoins which are much riskier and appear dead if you were to look at their charts but I'm speaking with those devs a bit and check their gits often enough to know that they're just working and don't care about price at all right now, but I couldn't in good conscience mention them because the devs could kill the projects tomorrow as failures and there would be absolutely no liquidity left to save your hard-earned.

makeorbrake wrote: »

Sure - it's an inevitability - especially with the demand rising from their side of the fence - but it certainly doesn't have to be over the next few weeks.

It could easily be a shorting game for them. Buy billions-worth OTC at low prices, pump a bit into the big exchanges, set those buy walls and push the price up, sell at peak once enough buy walls exist ahead of their own. Who knows? Even fairly large characters like Novogratz or Arrington speak of crypto-whales as manipulative phantoms who're working against their own wishes, but they could just be poker-facing.

I'd love to know how coordinated these feckers are. Makes my foil hat tingle.

Following on from discussion re. the SEC - earlier today they knocked back another application from the Winklevii for their ETF citing concerns over market manipulation. I doubt very much the other one will be approved. They will knock it back and eventually we will have one approved either very late 2018 or early 2019.


The price will be driven down sufficiently first - and clear out some more amateurs before old money finally gets it's mitts on it.

So the SEC kicked the can down the road - decision deferred to next month.

Bob24 wrote: »

And that seems to have triggered a serious dip for all coins!

What's the return policy on a Lambo?

This is potentially interesting: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/fidelity-launches-trade-execution-and-custody-for-cryptocurrencies.html

Fidelity Investments, which administers more than $7.2 trillion in client assets, announced a new and separate company called Fidelity Digital Asset Services Monday.
The firm will handle custody for cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, and will execute trades on multiple exchanges for investors like hedge funds and family offices.
Other crypto companies have debuted similar products but Fidelity is the first Wall Street incumbent to officially provide cryptocurrency solutions like custody.
“Our goal is to make digitally-native assets, such as bitcoin, more accessible to investors,” Fidelity Investments Chairman and CEO Abigail Johnson says.

cnocbui wrote: »

Coinbase is opening an office in Dublin due to brexit fears.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-15/coinbase-opens-office-in-dublin-as-brexit-contingency-plan?srnd=premium-europe

Collect our lambos in person

Grumpypants wrote: »

Collect our lambos in person

Or if it all goes to sh1t just call in and demand your money back

Morgan Stanley confirm what has been clear for a while now. i.e. the big money is moving into crypto.