After Hours Presidential Election Poll

weldoninhio · 25-10-2018 11:25AM

Lilly Fat Below wrote: »

Why is the poll on this thread so completely out of kilter with national polls, media predictions etc.

Are Boards.ie members a complete anamoly?

Last national poll was taken 9 days ago. Paddy Power, who conduct their own polls, odds is probably the best indicator at the moment.

25-10-2018 11:27AM

Odds on Casey have fallen drastically from 500/1 to 10/1 within a week. That's what happens when you rattle the cage, he's going to take a sizable chunk out of Higgins tomorrow.

c68zapdsm5i1ru · 25-10-2018 11:27AM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

When was the last national poll, Bella?

I dunno. But the media are predicting a landslide for Michael D.

25-10-2018 11:30AM

Lilly Fat Below wrote: »

I dunno. But the media are predicting a landslide for Michael D.

In 2011 there were two polls collating data from the last week of the election. This time the media for whatever reason has decided that they don’t want any information since Casey made his comments.

Opinion Polls for 2018 & 2011. Date is the last day of polling NOT published date.

2018 https://en.m.wikipedia...ntial_election,_2018
1) 24 August
2) 16 September
3) 10 October
4) 12 October
5) 16 October

2011 https://en.m.wikipedia...ntial_election,_2011
1) Poll taken before final list of candidates confirmed.
2) No date given in Irish Times report.
3) 5 October
4) 12 October
5) 20 October
6) 21 October

poppers · 25-10-2018 11:32AM

heard on Pat kennys show the Journal.ie (i know) had casey on over 30% in a poll of over 20000. actually thought they would have had him higher up than that.

FrancieBrady · 25-10-2018 11:33AM

Lilly Fat Below wrote: »

I dunno. But the media are predicting a landslide for Michael D.

I think it is the 'polls' that have predicted a landslide for Higgins. The 'media' have just interpreted the polls that put Higgins at appox 70% of the vote.

Sean O'Rourke panel ALL predicting that will change based on the events of the week. No conspiracy there then.

Conservative · 25-10-2018 11:34AM

Lilly Fat Below wrote: »

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

When was the last national poll, Bella?

I dunno. But the media are predicting a landslide for Michael D.

Let's prove them wrong for a third time.

Fair play to Pat Kenny, he has read out a lot of texts in Casey's favour and had somebody talk about his surge this morning without qualifying himself or talking about how terrible his comments were.

omega man · 25-10-2018 11:34AM

No recent official poll may work in caseys favour in that many who support Higgins may not bother voting as they believe he’s so far ahead.

Conservative · 25-10-2018 11:36AM

omega man wrote: »

No recent official poll may work in caseys favour in that many who support Higgins may not bother voting as they believe he’s so far ahead.

The lower the turn out the better.

FrancieBrady · 25-10-2018 11:43AM

Conservative wrote: »

The lower the turn out the better.

Good lord, I have heard it all now. :rolleyes:

McMurphy · 25-10-2018 11:43AM

Higgins odds have increased now to double what they were to 1-25.

Handy grand to be made if you've a spare 25k lying around :pac:

On a more serious note, any one think it could eventually lead to Casey and Higgins both on even money?

25-10-2018 11:46AM

According to the Nationalist Newspaper, Casey is way ahead. Is it possible that there might be an upset on the cards?

https://www.nationalist.ie/news/nationalist/343915/landslide-for-peter-casey-in-iconic-newspapers-poll.html

"Landslide for Peter Casey in Iconic Newspapers poll
Readers of the Iconic Newspapers websites, which includes Nationalist.ie, voted overwhelmingly for Peter Casey in the Presidential Election Poll that has been running over the past few days.
Just under 10,500 votes were cast in the Presidential Election poll that ran on all 13 websites in the Iconic Newspaper group with Peter Casey winning the overall poll with 51.2% of the votes cast.
This was not a scientific poll, readers were just asked who they intended to vote for in Friday’s poll and Mr Casey was the resounding favourite.
Sitting President Michael D Higgins received 28.2%, although all the national polls suggest that Mr Higgins will be returned to the Áras for a second seven year stint.
In third place was Liadh Ní Riada with 8.3% of the vote while Sean Gallagher came in fourth place with 5.4%.
Joan Freeman polled just 4.2% while Gavin Duffy came last with 2.4%.
63% of Nationalist.ie readers voted for Peter Casey. Others voted Michael D Higgins (19%), Sean Gallagher (5%), Liadh Ní Riada (5%), Gavin Duffy (4%) and Joan Freeman (3%) respectively.
“We do not expect Peter Casey to win the Presidency on Friday based on the national polls,” Sheila Reilly, Head of Digital with Iconic News explained.
“However judging by the number of readers who voted on our websites, it would be no surprise if Mr Casey performed a lot better than he has been polling until now.”
The polls was carried on the 13 websites in the Iconic Newspaper group on Monday until earlier today. Websites in the group include: limerickleader.ie; kilkennypeople.ie; leinsterexpress.ie; offalyexpress.ie; leinsterleader.ie; longfordleader.ie; leitrimobserver.ie; donegaldemocrat.ie; tipperarystar.ie;nationalist.ie; dundalkdemocrat.ie;carlowlive.ie and waterfordlive.ie."
"

diceyriley · 25-10-2018 11:52AM

This is gas. Casey is going to win I can feel it. The best efforts of the media to tarnish him will actually work in his favour. Goes to show we were not given anything from any of the candidates including miggildy, that we are going with him for having one honest answer.

Dr Brown · 25-10-2018 11:53AM

Lilly Fat Below wrote: »

I dunno. But the media are predicting a landslide for Michael D.

The same fake news media said that Hillary Clinton had a 98% chance of winning the 2016 presidential election.

Zubeneschamali · 25-10-2018 11:58AM

Dr Brown wrote: »

The same fake news media said that Hillary Clinton had a 98% chance of winning the 2016 presidential election.

Hillary Clinton got 3 million more votes than Trump, exactly in line with the polls.

It is the oddities of the Electoral College system which gave it to Trump, not some error in the polls.

fergus1001 · 25-10-2018 12:00PM

Because the role of president is only a ceremonial one and has no power i seriously want Casey to win to give the Government a timely reminder that we are looking at them fail on housing homelessness and broadband and that they have to come before the people at some point

PlaneSpeeking · 25-10-2018 12:00PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Hillary Clinton got 3 million more votes than Trump, exactly in line with the polls.

It is the oddities of the Electoral College system which gave it to Trump, not some error in the polls.

Except that's nonsense as the polls were state by state and therefore included the vagaries of the EC.

troyzer · 25-10-2018 12:04PM

Gonna be a lot of butthurt Casey fans here on Saturday.

PlaneSpeeking · 25-10-2018 12:04PM

troyzer wrote: »

Gonna be a lot of butthurt Casey fans here on Saturday.

Butthurt ?

Oh sweet Jesus.

troyzer · 25-10-2018 12:06PM

PlaneSpeeking wrote: »

Butthurt ?

Oh sweet Jesus.

Yeah, I hate the word butt. But butthurt seems appropriate here.

Would you prefer arsehurt? That doesn't chime as well.

PlaneSpeeking · 25-10-2018 12:07PM

troyzer wrote: »

Yeah, I hate the word butt. But butthurt seems appropriate here.

Would you prefer arsehurt? That doesn't chime as well.

No I'd prefer actual language not nonsense ripped from the Big Book of Bannonisms.

troyzer · 25-10-2018 12:08PM

PlaneSpeeking wrote: »

No I'd prefer actual language not nonsense ripped from the Big Book of Bannonisms.

Fair enough, my point stands though. Some people here are completely delusional.

Michael D will win by a landslide.

PlaneSpeeking · 25-10-2018 12:10PM

troyzer wrote: »

Fair enough, my point stands though. Some people here are completely delusional.

Michael D will win by a landslide.

I imagine so.

I'll just collect my "betting without MDH" winnings and go on about my day!

Med101007 · 25-10-2018 12:11PM

troyzer wrote: »

Fair enough, my point stands though. Some people here are completely delusional.

Michael D will win by a landslide.

Casey has gone into 10/1 now with Paddy Power.
Is it time to lump on?

B-D-P-- · 25-10-2018 12:12PM

I think alot who doesnt vote for MDH or Casey, would have Casey as #2, This could be a hugh factor.

Zubeneschamali · 25-10-2018 12:13PM

B-D-P-- wrote: »

I think alot who doesnt vote for MDH or Casey, would have Casey as #2, This could be a hugh factor.

No, MichaelD will win on the first count and #2s won't matter.

troyzer · 25-10-2018 12:16PM

Med101007 wrote: »

troyzer wrote: »

Fair enough, my point stands though. Some people here are completely delusional.

Michael D will win by a landslide.

Casey has gone into 10/1 now with Paddy Power.
Is it time to lump on?

That's just Paddy taking money from the stupid frequents who frequent this thread

McMurphy · 25-10-2018 12:17PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, MichaelD will win on the first count and #2s won't matter.

With a lack of any real opinion poll in over a week, I'm going to be keeping an eye on paddy power odds.

Higgins odds have doubled.

I'm not sure of the predicted landslide, if them odds continue to rise, and with the assumption that PP conducts it's own polls, I'll be even less sure of it.

25-10-2018 12:20PM

troyzer wrote: »

Gonna be a lot of butthurt Casey fans here on Saturday.

I don't think so. While many of us are glad that he brought the issue of travellers to the fore, I for one, don't see him as Presidential material.

c68zapdsm5i1ru · 25-10-2018 12:22PM

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

With a lack of any real opinion poll in over a week, I'm going to be keeping an eye on paddy power odds.

Higgins odds have doubled.

I'm not sure of the predicted landslide, if them odds continue to rise, and with the assumption that PP conducts it's own polls, I'll be even less sure of it.

Sorry if this is stupid, but does his odds doubling mean he's twice as likely to get in as was predicted before?

After Hours Presidential Election Poll

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