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Leo says "Immigrants 'more likely' to work and pay tax than average Irish person"

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    #182
    Rubberchikken
    Registered Users Posts: 5,083 ✭✭✭Rubberchikken


    Leo can back up his inane statements with every statistic he can throw at us and i still wouldnt have any confidence in this muppet.
    Hes a disgrace of a politician and is showing no respect for Irish citizens, some of whom, granted stupidly, elected him to his cushy job.


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    #183
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users Posts: 20,816 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Irish people going abroad were always well regarded for their willingness to work and pay their own way. It is good to see that people coming here are the same.


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    #184
    CeilingFly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,378 ✭✭✭CeilingFly


    Some people don't seem to understand what was said.
    Immigrants in most countries will be more likely working that the indigenous population.

    Irish emigrants will have a lower level of unemployment in comparison to those indigenous to the countries they work in.


    Basically, immigrants taken as an overall group are net payers into the tax system generally.


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    #185
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Do the stats include the 'black market and illegal migrants'?
    Or even students at 'language schools' whom overstay their visa.

    Sure, 'highly-skilled migrants' are welcome nearly everywhere, only this week T.May echoed this:
    "high-skilled workers would be prioritised with no preferential treatment for people from the EU compared with those from the rest of the world".

    Post-brexit UK, will have tiers and even min salary requirements. Also require a solid job offer.
    Workers won't be able to bring in their family, unless sponsored by the employer.

    So in talking about migrants you do have to consider quality, rather than quantity.
    Bear in mind 50% of current roles (mainly low skilled) will be replaced by automation 2025-30.


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    #186
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users Posts: 20,816 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    As the world becomes ever more middle class, it will be low skilled workers doing the jobs the middle classes won't do, who will be in demand. And as existing roles are extinguished, others forms of work will emerge. There are 150,000 low paid workers cleaning up the internet before it reaches our eyes. Not too long ago they would have been telephone operators in telephone exchanges.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6227745/A-new-global-majority-Half-world-middle-class-richer-study-finds.html

    For the first time, the majority of the world’s population is not poor or vulnerable to poverty and the middle class accounts for the globe's largest economic group. As of September, an estimated 3.8 billion people are now middle class or rich.


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    #187
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Middle class or not (more of phenomenon only in the developing world anyway, not in the EU), jobs will be certainly be lost.
    Sure new roles 'may/might' be created. But new roles will require significant (and constant) upskilling and training.
    Not something that can be done fresh off the boat, or by those jumping out of ferry trucks in Co Laois.

    Original estimates were that 50% of all roles will be lost by 2030.
    But the WEF reckons it will be by 2025.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6175599/Machines-handle-half-workplace-tasks-2025.html

    Automation (ai-self learning) might even include current complex skilled web-based roles, such as searching for and removing fake news, or spotting fraud attempts.


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    #188
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users Posts: 20,816 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    I'm thinking more of the thousands of shop workers who are behind the counters at 8 o'clock on a Sunday morning. The middle class youngsters will still be in bed, after the exertions of a Saturday night out. And being catered for by immigrant workers in the restaurants, bars and clubs on their night out.


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    #189
    CeilingFly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,378 ✭✭✭CeilingFly


    Faith Blue Macaw wrote: »
    Middle class or not (more of phenomenon only in the developing world anyway, not in the EU), jobs will be certainly be lost.
    Sure new roles 'may/might' be created. But new roles will require significant (and constant) upskilling and training.
    Not something that can be done fresh off the boat, or by those jumping out of ferry trucks in Co Laois.

    Original estimates were that 50% of all roles will be lost by 2030.
    But the WEF reckons it will be by 2025.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6175599/Machines-handle-half-workplace-tasks-2025.html

    Automation (ai-self learning) might even include current complex skilled web-based roles, such as searching for and removing fake news, or spotting fraud attempts.

    With respect, the daily mail is an absolute and utter rag that rarely gives an unbiased view.

    Never ever believe anything in that rag


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    #190
    Grayson
    Registered Users Posts: 16,161 ✭✭✭✭Grayson


    CeilingFly wrote: »
    Some people don't seem to understand what was said.

    Some people don't want to.


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    #191
    Mr. teddywinkles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,009 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    dxhound2005 wrote: »
    As the world becomes ever more middle class, it will be low skilled workers doing the jobs the middle classes won't do, who will be in demand. And as existing roles are extinguished, others forms of work will emerge. There are 150,000 low paid workers cleaning up the internet before it reaches our eyes. Not too long ago they would have been telephone operators in telephone exchanges.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6227745/A-new-global-majority-Half-world-middle-class-richer-study-finds.html

    For the first time, the majority of the world’s population is not poor or vulnerable to poverty and the middle class accounts for the globe's largest economic group. As of September, an estimated 3.8 billion people are now middle class or rich.

    Load of ****e. You keep making up theses makey up bollixoligy jobs that low skilled workers will do. Jesus.no automation system involved at all. No one knows how advanced automation will be. Rich ya mean be able to maintain a non ****e standard of living just bearly


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    #192
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    CeilingFly wrote: »
    With respect, the daily mail is an absolute and utter rag that rarely gives an unbiased view.

    Never ever believe anything in that rag

    The previous poster seemed happy to link to the world's most read online newspaper, perhaps more selective smaller niche media {e.g. the lefty guardian rag} would that be better?...

    They also merely quoted from the World Economic Forum. The views are very similar to many economists, consultancies and analyists regarding the rise of automation, and implications on job replacement.

    So don't blame the messenger just because you don't like the news.


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    #193
    Niles Crane
    Closed Accounts Posts: 537 ✭✭✭Niles Crane


    Rubberchikken wrote: »
    Leo can back up his inane statements with every statistic he can throw at us and i still wouldnt have any confidence in this muppet.
    Hes a disgrace of a politician and is showing no respect for Irish citizens, some of whom, granted stupidly, elected him to his cushy job.

    Agreed.

    He strikes me as someone that has contempt for the average irish person and only has an interest in special interest groups in this country.


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    #194
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users Posts: 20,816 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    It will need a lot of human workers to look after the old people in rich societies. And there will be plenty of old people. Not the sort of work the middle classes want, after doing their degrees and PHD's.


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    #195
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    dxhound2005 wrote: »
    I'm thinking more of the thousands of shop workers who are behind the counters at 8 o'clock on a Sunday morning. The middle class youngsters will still be in bed, after the exertions of a Saturday night out. And being catered for by immigrant workers in the restaurants, bars and clubs on their night out.

    Shop workers? Surely they're a dying breed now in retail.
    50,000 have been lost just in the 1st half 2018 in the UK.
    House of Fraiser looks like a Sports Direct firesale now.

    All the youngsters have to do is Prime their web orders (processed by an auto-warehouse) then collect from their depot of choice.

    tAMpdON.png


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    #196
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    dxhound2005 wrote: »
    It will need a lot of human workers to look after the old people in rich societies. And there will be plenty of old people. Not the sort of work the middle classes want, after doing their degrees and PHD's.

    Rich societies such as Japan? Tokyo’s Shin-tomi nursing home, uses 20 different robot models to care for its residents.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-ageing-robots-widerimage/aging-japan-robots-may-have-role-in-future-of-elder-care-idUSKBN1H33AB

    The Japanese government hopes it will be a model for harnessing the country’s robotics expertise to help cope with a swelling elderly population.

    Specalised care won't be as fast to replace as many other genres, but once it makes sense on a care home's balance sheet, it will happen.


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    #197
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users Posts: 20,816 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Faith Blue Macaw wrote: »
    Shop workers? Surely they're a dying breed now in retail.
    50,000 have been lost just in the 1st half 2018 in the UK.
    House of Fraiser looks like a Sports Direct firesale now.

    All the youngsters have to do is Prime their web orders (processed by an auto-warehouse) then collect from their depot of choice.

    tAMpdON.png

    Am I reading it wrong or does that graphic only show categories which total less than 40% of the workforce. Would a large number of the rest be in hospitality and medical?


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    #198
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    dxhound2005 wrote: »
    Am I reading it wrong or does that graphic only show categories which total less than 40% of the workforce. Would a large number of the rest be in hospitality and medical?

    Obvs no single category makes up 40% of the workforce...

    But retail would be one of the largest of all groups around 15%, with 40%+ risk.

    Human heath fields 12% approx have lower risk at 20% risk of replacment.

    Here's the article/chart: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/mar/24/millions-uk-workers-risk-replaced-robots-study-warns

    The safest industry would be (advanced) 'education', as everyone will be so busy trying to cross/up-skill, to try to hold on to their jobs. Thus, will always be a need for specalist skills trainers.

    The study (by PWC) also classes 'unskilled' as the most at risk group with 45% risk of replacment by 2030.
    So like the UK, importing the unskilled will be a wasted effort going forward.
    The only real current exception is some(seasonal harvest) agriculture sectors.


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    #199
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users Posts: 20,816 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    That is the problem solved, if it ever was a problem. If there is no unskilled work available here, no immigrants will arrive to take up non existent work. Just as Irish people would not go to Australia or America unless they wanted to work there.

    I meant that all the categories you showed originally were well under 40% of 100% when totaled together.


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    #200
    s7ryf3925pivug
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,007 ✭✭✭s7ryf3925pivug


    There was an area in Limerick city populated mainly by Polish people. It was fine. When Dell scaled back its operations there, it has a knock-on effect on satellite businesses too. Most of the Polish people lost their jobs. Most of them moved to find new jobs. The people who replaced them were mainly Irish mainly unemployed, and it was no longer a safe place to live.

    From what I’ve seen, most legitimate immigrants here are decent and hardworking.


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    #201
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    dxhound2005 wrote: »
    That is the problem solved, if it ever was a problem. If there is no unskilled work available here, no immigrants will arrive to take up non existent work. Just as Irish people would not go to Australia or America unless they wanted to work there.

    Generally the Irish that currently go to Australia (even on WHV's) are well educated, fiscally secure, fluent and often take up 'skilled employment'.

    People don't 'go to America' these days unless they have employer sponsorship.

    There will still be a need for migrants, everywhere. But in developed nations it will really only be for highly skilled variety in the next decade.
    dxhound2005 wrote: »
    I meant that all the categories you showed originally were well under 40% of 100% when totaled together.

    The PWC figure varies by country, but 40 total replacement by 2030 is a fair estimate in W.Europe. WEF has this by 2025, so up to 40-50% might also be fair by 2030.

    Bear in mind the young (unexperienced), males (less uptake in H&FE than females), will be most at risk of all demographics. Their figure would be +/- 50%. Young males might also be the most vocal, and difficult to assimilate.


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    #202
    Mr. teddywinkles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,009 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    Zendaya Sharp Stove wrote: »
    There was an area in Limerick city populated mainly by Polish people. It was fine. When Dell scaled back its operations there, it has a knock-on effect on satellite businesses too. Most of the Polish people lost their jobs. Most of them moved to find new jobs. The people who replaced them were mainly Irish mainly unemployed, and it was no longer a safe place to live.

    From what I’ve seen, most legitimate immigrants here are decent and hardworking.

    Let me guess they moved back to Poland where dell relocated haha :)


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    #203
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users Posts: 20,816 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Faith Blue Macaw wrote: »
    Generally the Irish that currently go to Australia (even on WHV's) are well educated, fiscally secure, fluent and often take up 'skilled employment'.

    People don't 'go to America' these days unless they have employer sponsorship.

    There will still be a need for migrants, everywhere. But in developed nations it will really only be for highly skilled variety in the next decade.



    The PWC figure varies by country, but 40 total replacement by 2030 is a fair estimate in W.Europe. WEF has this by 2025, so up to 40-50% might also be fair by 2030.

    Bear in mind the young (unexperienced), males (less uptake in H&FE than females), will be most at risk of all demographics. Their figure would be +/- 50%. Young males might also be the most vocal, and difficult to assimilate.


    The saboteurs and the Luddites broke up the machines when their trades went. Economies used to be mainly agricultural. After that many of the jobs from the industrial revolution came and went. There are jobs now which would were undreamt of in the past. I am not pessimistic about the future. Even if it means machines doing all the work, it will generate the riches for humans to live as they want.


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    #204
    Princess Consuela Bananahammock
    Registered Users Posts: 33,241 ✭✭✭✭Princess Consuela Bananahammock


    Johnny Dogs wrote: »
    I don't think so.

    Leo has come out declaring that immigrants are more likely to be working and paying taxes than the average Irish person.

    I would say that Irish people make up the vast majority of the Irish workforce, not immigrants.

    It does not require a Venn diagram to show how Leo was talking from his hoop..

    Two completley different statements: are you talking quantity or comparative percentage?

    Everything I don't like is either woke or fascist - possibly both - pick one.



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    #205
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    dxhound2005 wrote: »
    The saboteurs and the Luddites broke up the machines when their trades went. Economies used to be mainly agricultural. After that many of the jobs from the industrial revolution came and went. There are jobs now which would were undreamt of in the past. I am not pessimistic about the future. Even if it means machines doing all the work, it will generate the riches for humans to live as they want.

    You can't compare the 4th Industrial Reveloution to the previous three.

    Folks were mainly self-sufficent (if poor) in earlier times. Some would say many had richer fuller lives, than the young screen based workaholics of 2018 barely getting sunlight, social interaction, family time or fresh air.

    The 4th isn't about just techincal/physical, but also 'cognitive replacement'.
    The hollowing out will also arrive with greater gusto than previously.

    Yes quality or standards of life in the material sense will improve. There will also be some new roles (requiring special skills), but there is also a dark side with major technological revolutions, when adaption can't meet the pace of change.


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    #206
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users Posts: 20,816 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    I remember the hard times, and life was not richer and fuller. Some might try to tell me it was, but it wasn't. And in the generations before it was a lot worse again.


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    #207
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    dxhound2005 wrote: »
    I remember the hard times, and life was not richer and fuller. Some might try to tell me it was, but it wasn't. And in the generations before it was a lot worse again.

    It's entirely subjective and every country and group is different.

    One example might be the Native Indian population, they generally enjoyed centuries of chasing bison/buffalo, singing and dancing around the fire, living in harmony with nature, leisurely smoking and procreation in their teepee. These days they're become generally unhealthy, apathetic and alcoholic.

    There are upsides to the next advancement, but like the Indians there will come a point when AI superseeds human cognative ability, at which point unemployed humans (as a collective) may well question their very existance.


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    #208
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users Posts: 20,816 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    What will Leo say then?


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    #209
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,140 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    This remark splits me, I feel like Leo is finally standing up to the many welfare cheats and trying to make the true working class see that, but I also feel he's trying to legitimise the arrival of mass uneducated and culturally unintegratable immigrants (for the most part and while I'm a majority).


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    #210
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    dxhound2005 wrote: »
    What will Leo say then?

    He won't care: chillaxing on a beach somewhere with a comfy pension.

    But if still around might take a note from the chief economist of the Bank of England (Warning that their country will need a 'skills revolution') - to avoid 'large swathes' of people becoming 'technologically unemployed' as artificial intelligence revolutionises the workplace...

    "We are in the midst of an extreme data literacy deficiency and, like the Bank of England, we believe that organisations need to upskill employees fast to achieve a sustainable level of growth in the next 5-10 years.


    The dilema of course is even if you 'upskill' or import the 'highly skilled' (not the general masses), not everyone is suited towards endless education leading to compiling complex functions, testing variables and debugging information systems to a standard higher than AI can. All this on zero-hour contract gigs, long-hours with very little rights.


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    #211
    s7ryf3925pivug
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,007 ✭✭✭s7ryf3925pivug


    Mr. teddywinkles wrote: »
    Let me guess they moved back to Poland where dell relocated haha :)
    Probably! They all had jobs though - that's the point really.

    I heard that their manufacturing operations were subsequently moved again, once an incentive by the Polish government was exhausted. Dont know if that's true or not.


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