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So Michael D IS running again!

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    #1532
    batgoat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,423 ✭✭✭batgoat


    jmcc wrote: »
    Like this?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnKClJcW4AA_Mb8.jpg:large

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnJlLsHXcAALZXl.jpg:large

    Regards...jmcc

    Since there is no sign of Michael D doing anything improper, I can't see that having any substantial impact.


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    #1533
    Alan_P
    Registered Users Posts: 264 ✭✭Alan_P


    batgoat wrote: »
    Since there is no sign of Michael D doing anything improper, I can't see that having any substantial impact.


    Exactly, what's any of that got to do with Michael D ? And for the record, it wasn't the incorrect Tweet allegation that destroyed Gallagher, it was his reaction to it.


    This poll confirms my suspicion that this election is a waste of time.I will not be surprised if there are withdrawals. SF haven't formally nominated yet, have they ? 7% does them no good at any level. I wonder if there are party insiders suggesting they find some reason not to.


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    #1534
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,267 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    jmcc wrote: »
    SF never do things for the sake of it. Labour has completely underestimated SF and its motivations. It would be funny to see SF win given that it is now the main party of the Left and 6 out 7 Labour TDs are millionaires. SF is also a lot better at working Social Media than either FF or FG so there will be an uptick in SF activity on Social Media in the next few weeks that Labour and Higgins supporters will find difficult to match. After all, Labour is the party of "Ashbourne Annie" and Ashbourne Annie was a real account on Twitter.

    Regards...jmcc

    Sinn Fein don't have a chance.

    They are down to 14% in the latest poll.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0915/993987-opinion-poll-politics/

    Given they have consistently performed better in opinion polls than in elections, Ms. Ni Riadha will be doing well to keep her deposit, especially when her rather strange views of vaccinations are probed.

    She is not a Martin McGuinness, capable of appealing beyond the traditional vote, she is a normal Shinner public representative, beholden to the boys in Belfast.


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    #1535
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    jmcc wrote: »
    Like this?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnKClJcW4AA_Mb8.jpg:large

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnJlLsHXcAALZXl.jpg:large

    Regards...jmcc

    That is only going to harm Gallagher not help him. It raises the whole doubt about him again.


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    #1536
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    SBP Presidential Poll data:

    Higgins 67%
    Gallagher 16%
    SF 7%
    Duffy 6%
    Freeman 3%
    Casey 1%

    https://twitter.com/sundaybusiness/status/1041023844847239168/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1041023844847239168%7Ctwgr%5E373939313b636f6e74726f6c&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcedarlounge.wordpress.com%2F2018%2F09%2F15%2Fan-end-of-summer-poll%2F

    Just re-enforces my opinion that FG and FF were too afraid to openly run someone for the position.


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    #1537
    jmcc
    Registered Users Posts: 7,329 ✭✭✭jmcc


    It raises the problem of Higgins being the RTE president. It will damage the legitimacy of his 2011 election and the electorate does not like being taken for fools.

    Regards...jmcc


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    #1538
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    SBP Presidential Poll data:

    Higgins 67%
    Gallagher 16%
    SF 7%
    Duffy 6%
    Freeman 3%
    Casey 1%

    https://twitter.com/sundaybusiness/status/1041023844847239168/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1041023844847239168%7Ctwgr%5E373939313b636f6e74726f6c&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcedarlounge.wordpress.com%2F2018%2F09%2F15%2Fan-end-of-summer-poll%2F

    Just re-enforces my opinion that FG and FF were too afraid to openly run someone for the position.

    O'Cuiv was the only FF person to express an interest, and he'd have struggled to reach double digit percentages.


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    #1539
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    jmcc wrote: »
    It raises the problem of Higgins being the RTE president. It will damage the legitimacy of his 2011 election and the electorate does not like being taken for fools.

    Regards...jmcc

    Still six weeks to go, however, so even in the event there was a slight impact, it wouldn't suffice to sustain an entire campaign cycle.


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    #1540
    Henryhill2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 171 ✭✭Henryhill2


    jmcc wrote: »
    It raises the problem of Higgins being the RTE president. It will damage the legitimacy of his 2011 election and the electorate does not like being taken for fools.

    Regards...jmcc

    Nonsense


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    #1541
    batgoat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,423 ✭✭✭batgoat


    jmcc wrote: »
    It raises the problem of Higgins being the RTE president. It will damage the legitimacy of his 2011 election and the electorate does not like being taken for fools.

    Regards...jmcc

    Since Higgins has done a good job as president, you've been saying that would kill his prospects for ages. So far no impact. The public were well aware that rte misreported with tweet etc and that RTE paid out to Gallagher.


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    #1542
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    O'Cuiv was the only FF person to express an interest, and he'd have struggled to reach double digit percentages.

    You can be sure they did their own polling/research and saw those figures for Higgins.


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    #1543
    blackwhite
    Registered Users Posts: 8,544 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    jmcc wrote: »
    It raises the problem of Higgins being the RTE president. It will damage the legitimacy of his 2011 election and the electorate does not like being taken for fools.

    Regards...jmcc

    This seems like you repeatedly stating what you hope will happen, despite there being zero indication, commentator, or any of the other candidates making such a claim


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    #1544
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    So while one poll is far from definitive, I should hope this torpedos the flimsy narrative of a seething public enraged over Higgins "lying" about a 2nd term, while implying some dirt by association through RTÉ's ineptitude in 2011 is clutching at straws. Leads tend to dwindle as campaigns mature, but that's a pretty spectacular difference - reignites the whole need for this election in the first place.


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    #1545
    blackwhite
    Registered Users Posts: 8,544 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    pixelburp wrote: »
    So while one poll is far from definitive, I should hope this torpedos the flimsy narrative of a seething public enraged over Higgins "lying" about a 2nd term, while implying some dirt by association through RTÉ's ineptitude in 2011 is clutching at straws. Leads tend to dwindle as campaigns mature, but that's a pretty spectacular difference - reignites the whole need for this election in the first place.

    Sure the polls are obviously being manipulated because Higgins is the media/RTÉ/FG/FF/LAB/lizard people candidate, and it couldn’t possibly be because the majority of people think he’s doing a half-decent job


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    #1546
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,083 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Interesting that neither her nor Adi Roche ever gained much traction in their respective presidential races, and Joan Freeman doesn't seem to be this time either.

    Not much 'seems' about it after that poll. Very bad poll for SF too, not even in the running for second on those figures. Wonder will they be desperately seeking a celeb candidate like Frances Black or Robert Ballagh at the last minute...


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    #1547
    marieholmfan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,744 ✭✭✭marieholmfan


    jmcc wrote: »
    It raises the problem of Higgins being the RTE president. It will damage the legitimacy of his 2011 election and the electorate does not like being taken for fools.

    Regards...jmcc
    Absolute nonsense. Gallagher attempted to deceive the people of Ireland about just how deeply he was dug in to Fianna Fail . He proved unable to think on his feet and was caught in a 'which lie did I tell' moment like a rabbit in the headlines.


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    #1548
    expectationlost
    Registered Users Posts: 11,772 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    heres the article its just the producer Michael Hughes trying to absolve himself of blame and shift it to the Ken O'Shea editor https://www.businesspost.ie/news/behind-frontline-presidential-debate-425631

    interesting to read this article from way back about how Ken O'Shea had no direct access to PK https://www.herald.ie/news/rte-chief-in-tweetgate-is-scapegoat-for-scandal-pals-28003061.html no but he apparently told his producer what to tell PK. anyway Ken O'shea subsequently was moved to RTE after the mission to prey screw up

    Ken O'Shea is still working for RTE on rte2 https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-o-shea-4018071/

    pat kenny says RTE didn't reveal enough about what happened with the tweet in its reports
    https://www.businesspost.ie/news/behind-the-frontline-425599


    nothing about the general unfairness referred to in the sindo last week, that might be more interesting


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    #1549
    alaimacerc
    Registered Users Posts: 7,224 ✭✭✭alaimacerc


    jmcc wrote: »
    As I've said repeatedly [...]

    That's putting it mildly.


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    #1550
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Has Higgins actually said he won't do or limit debates or is this just a cheap shot at creating a perception that he won't or is running scared?

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/sean-gallagher-no-presidential-election-debates-if-michael-d-higgins-wont-join-in-shzl9xz5b?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1537058600


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    #1551
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users Posts: 15,353 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Sean g hasn’t a hope.

    All any of his opponents have to do is raise the issue of him collecting envelopes on behalf of ff

    And that’s all they have to do to turn ppl away from him.


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    #1552
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,854 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »
    Hardly examples of senior party members by the time of their respective elections.

    I suppose GM is questionable, although his role in Lisbon 1 should surely have solidified his peripheral significance.
    Gay's a self publicist. Any chance of getting into the headlines and he's there.


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    #1553
    Alan_P
    Registered Users Posts: 264 ✭✭Alan_P


    jmcc wrote: »
    It raises the problem of Higgins being the RTE president. It will damage the legitimacy of his 2011 election and the electorate does not like being taken for fools.

    Regards...jmcc


    Okay, then. Explain how a sitting candidate, with 50 years worth of electoral exposure, who is at 67% at the start of his reelection campaign, manages to lose ?

    Please explain it, in actual demographic terms.


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    #1554
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,854 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Has Higgins actually said he won't do or limit debates or is this just a cheap shot at creating a perception that he won't or is running scared?

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/sean-gallagher-no-presidential-election-debates-if-michael-d-higgins-wont-join-in-shzl9xz5b?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1537058600
    'Never argue with an idiot.
    They will only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'


    There's no benefit in Higgins answering stuff like "what would you bring to the role ?"
    Especially when the others can promise anything they like.


    And besides it's Seanie who's scared of too much air-time.


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    #1555
    expectationlost
    Registered Users Posts: 11,772 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Has Higgins actually said he won't do or limit debates or is this just a cheap shot at creating a perception that he won't or is running scared?

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/sean-gallagher-no-presidential-election-debates-if-michael-d-higgins-wont-join-in-shzl9xz5b?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1537058600


    short article in the Irish Times the other day saying he would do debates https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/presidential-election-higgins-likely-to-take-part-in-tv-debates-1.3627252


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    #1556
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,854 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Alan_P wrote: »
    Okay, then. Explain how a sitting candidate, with 50 years worth of electoral exposure, who is at 67% at the start of his reelection campaign, manages to lose ?

    Please explain it, in actual demographic terms.
    67% and attracted two and a half times as many transfers from the other candidates last time round.


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    #1557
    Henryhill2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 171 ✭✭Henryhill2


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    Sean g hasn’t a hope.

    All any of his opponents have to do is raise the issue of him collecting envelopes on behalf of ff

    And that’s all they have to do to turn ppl away from him.

    Don't agree with that

    He's already carrying that baggage ,raising the issue wont change much.

    Unlikely it will be raised by anyone except SF imo if at all


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    #1558
    Henryhill2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 171 ✭✭Henryhill2


    I can't envisage any way MDH loses

    Age is actually an advantage for the job

    I think SG and Duffy (if he's helping SG) will take low-key potshots at MDH to little effect

    Gallagher will have spin about expanding the role


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    #1559
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,083 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Just wondering, if we are talking about a race for second, is it only first preferences that are counted if MDH is elected on the first count? You'd think Ni Riada would pick up a lot of his surplus, but that won't be taken into account right?


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    #1560
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    The only scenario I can see Higgins pipped at the post is that the inevitably low turnout favours another candidate through voter apathy and engaged rival.

    There's little doubt the animation of debate here is not reflective of the broader enthusiasm for this election. But that same logic could also default Higgins to success too, the average voter sticking with the safe, default preference - Higgins.

    With the final tally of candidates in front of me, I find myself looping back to the line of thinking that this election is a colossal waste of time and money. Businessmen trying to indulge in state funded nepotism, under the guide of the democratic principle.


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    #1561
    Henryhill2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 171 ✭✭Henryhill2


    The media and spin is Duffy's game so he will be clever about it if he's assisting Gallagher in any way.

    I'm not following the financial side of things but I assume the likes of Duffy and Gallagher are not throwing their own money away here?


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