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So Michael D IS running again!

realdanbreen

So when Michael D was campaigning for president and said it would be a one off term he was lying?
Many voted for him because he was only going for one term and wasn't trying to hog the job for 14 years.

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batgoat

jmcc wrote: »

Like this?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnKClJcW4AA_Mb8.jpg:large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnJlLsHXcAALZXl.jpg:large

Regards...jmcc

Since there is no sign of Michael D doing anything improper, I can't see that having any substantial impact.

Alan_P

batgoat wrote: »

Since there is no sign of Michael D doing anything improper, I can't see that having any substantial impact.

Exactly, what's any of that got to do with Michael D ? And for the record, it wasn't the incorrect Tweet allegation that destroyed Gallagher, it was his reaction to it.

This poll confirms my suspicion that this election is a waste of time.I will not be surprised if there are withdrawals. SF haven't formally nominated yet, have they ? 7% does them no good at any level. I wonder if there are party insiders suggesting they find some reason not to.

blanch152

jmcc wrote: »

SF never do things for the sake of it. Labour has completely underestimated SF and its motivations. It would be funny to see SF win given that it is now the main party of the Left and 6 out 7 Labour TDs are millionaires. SF is also a lot better at working Social Media than either FF or FG so there will be an uptick in SF activity on Social Media in the next few weeks that Labour and Higgins supporters will find difficult to match. After all, Labour is the party of "Ashbourne Annie" and Ashbourne Annie was a real account on Twitter.

Regards...jmcc

Sinn Fein don't have a chance.

They are down to 14% in the latest poll.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0915/993987-opinion-poll-politics/

Given they have consistently performed better in opinion polls than in elections, Ms. Ni Riadha will be doing well to keep her deposit, especially when her rather strange views of vaccinations are probed.

She is not a Martin McGuinness, capable of appealing beyond the traditional vote, she is a normal Shinner public representative, beholden to the boys in Belfast.

FrancieBrady

jmcc wrote: »

Like this?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnKClJcW4AA_Mb8.jpg:large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnJlLsHXcAALZXl.jpg:large

Regards...jmcc

That is only going to harm Gallagher not help him. It raises the whole doubt about him again.

FrancieBrady

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

SBP Presidential Poll data:

Higgins 67%
Gallagher 16%
SF 7%
Duffy 6%
Freeman 3%
Casey 1%

https://twitter.com/sundaybusiness/status/1041023844847239168/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1041023844847239168%7Ctwgr%5E373939313b636f6e74726f6c&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcedarlounge.wordpress.com%2F2018%2F09%2F15%2Fan-end-of-summer-poll%2F

Just re-enforces my opinion that FG and FF were too afraid to openly run someone for the position.

jmcc

It raises the problem of Higgins being the RTE president. It will damage the legitimacy of his 2011 election and the electorate does not like being taken for fools.

Regards...jmcc

An Ciarraioch

FrancieBrady wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

SBP Presidential Poll data:

Higgins 67%
Gallagher 16%
SF 7%
Duffy 6%
Freeman 3%
Casey 1%

https://twitter.com/sundaybusiness/status/1041023844847239168/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1041023844847239168%7Ctwgr%5E373939313b636f6e74726f6c&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcedarlounge.wordpress.com%2F2018%2F09%2F15%2Fan-end-of-summer-poll%2F

Just re-enforces my opinion that FG and FF were too afraid to openly run someone for the position.

O'Cuiv was the only FF person to express an interest, and he'd have struggled to reach double digit percentages.

An Ciarraioch

jmcc wrote: »

It raises the problem of Higgins being the RTE president. It will damage the legitimacy of his 2011 election and the electorate does not like being taken for fools.

Regards...jmcc

Still six weeks to go, however, so even in the event there was a slight impact, it wouldn't suffice to sustain an entire campaign cycle.

Henryhill2

jmcc wrote: »

It raises the problem of Higgins being the RTE president. It will damage the legitimacy of his 2011 election and the electorate does not like being taken for fools.

Regards...jmcc

Nonsense

batgoat

jmcc wrote: »

It raises the problem of Higgins being the RTE president. It will damage the legitimacy of his 2011 election and the electorate does not like being taken for fools.

Regards...jmcc

Since Higgins has done a good job as president, you've been saying that would kill his prospects for ages. So far no impact. The public were well aware that rte misreported with tweet etc and that RTE paid out to Gallagher.

FrancieBrady

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

O'Cuiv was the only FF person to express an interest, and he'd have struggled to reach double digit percentages.

You can be sure they did their own polling/research and saw those figures for Higgins.

blackwhite

jmcc wrote: »

It raises the problem of Higgins being the RTE president. It will damage the legitimacy of his 2011 election and the electorate does not like being taken for fools.

Regards...jmcc

This seems like you repeatedly stating what you hope will happen, despite there being zero indication, commentator, or any of the other candidates making such a claim

pixelburp

So while one poll is far from definitive, I should hope this torpedos the flimsy narrative of a seething public enraged over Higgins "lying" about a 2nd term, while implying some dirt by association through RTÉ's ineptitude in 2011 is clutching at straws. Leads tend to dwindle as campaigns mature, but that's a pretty spectacular difference - reignites the whole need for this election in the first place.

blackwhite

pixelburp wrote: »

So while one poll is far from definitive, I should hope this torpedos the flimsy narrative of a seething public enraged over Higgins "lying" about a 2nd term, while implying some dirt by association through RTÉ's ineptitude in 2011 is clutching at straws. Leads tend to dwindle as campaigns mature, but that's a pretty spectacular difference - reignites the whole need for this election in the first place.

Sure the polls are obviously being manipulated because Higgins is the media/RTÉ/FG/FF/LAB/lizard people candidate, and it couldn’t possibly be because the majority of people think he’s doing a half-decent job

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Interesting that neither her nor Adi Roche ever gained much traction in their respective presidential races, and Joan Freeman doesn't seem to be this time either.

Not much 'seems' about it after that poll. Very bad poll for SF too, not even in the running for second on those figures. Wonder will they be desperately seeking a celeb candidate like Frances Black or Robert Ballagh at the last minute...

marieholmfan

jmcc wrote: »

It raises the problem of Higgins being the RTE president. It will damage the legitimacy of his 2011 election and the electorate does not like being taken for fools.

Regards...jmcc

Absolute nonsense. Gallagher attempted to deceive the people of Ireland about just how deeply he was dug in to Fianna Fail . He proved unable to think on his feet and was caught in a 'which lie did I tell' moment like a rabbit in the headlines.

expectationlost

heres the article its just the producer Michael Hughes trying to absolve himself of blame and shift it to the Ken O'Shea editor https://www.businesspost.ie/news/behind-frontline-presidential-debate-425631

interesting to read this article from way back about how Ken O'Shea had no direct access to PK https://www.herald.ie/news/rte-chief-in-tweetgate-is-scapegoat-for-scandal-pals-28003061.html no but he apparently told his producer what to tell PK. anyway Ken O'shea subsequently was moved to RTE after the mission to prey screw up

Ken O'Shea is still working for RTE on rte2 https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-o-shea-4018071/

pat kenny says RTE didn't reveal enough about what happened with the tweet in its reports
https://www.businesspost.ie/news/behind-the-frontline-425599

nothing about the general unfairness referred to in the sindo last week, that might be more interesting

alaimacerc

jmcc wrote: »

As I've said repeatedly [...]

That's putting it mildly.

FrancieBrady

Has Higgins actually said he won't do or limit debates or is this just a cheap shot at creating a perception that he won't or is running scared?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/sean-gallagher-no-presidential-election-debates-if-michael-d-higgins-wont-join-in-shzl9xz5b?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1537058600

Beechwoodspark

Sean g hasn’t a hope.

All any of his opponents have to do is raise the issue of him collecting envelopes on behalf of ff

And that’s all they have to do to turn ppl away from him.

Capt'n Midnight

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Hardly examples of senior party members by the time of their respective elections.

I suppose GM is questionable, although his role in Lisbon 1 should surely have solidified his peripheral significance.

Gay's a self publicist. Any chance of getting into the headlines and he's there.

Alan_P

jmcc wrote: »

It raises the problem of Higgins being the RTE president. It will damage the legitimacy of his 2011 election and the electorate does not like being taken for fools.

Regards...jmcc

Okay, then. Explain how a sitting candidate, with 50 years worth of electoral exposure, who is at 67% at the start of his reelection campaign, manages to lose ?

Please explain it, in actual demographic terms.

Capt'n Midnight

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Has Higgins actually said he won't do or limit debates or is this just a cheap shot at creating a perception that he won't or is running scared?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/sean-gallagher-no-presidential-election-debates-if-michael-d-higgins-wont-join-in-shzl9xz5b?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1537058600

'Never argue with an idiot.
They will only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

There's no benefit in Higgins answering stuff like "what would you bring to the role ?"
Especially when the others can promise anything they like.

And besides it's Seanie who's scared of too much air-time.

expectationlost

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Has Higgins actually said he won't do or limit debates or is this just a cheap shot at creating a perception that he won't or is running scared?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/sean-gallagher-no-presidential-election-debates-if-michael-d-higgins-wont-join-in-shzl9xz5b?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1537058600

short article in the Irish Times the other day saying he would do debates https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/presidential-election-higgins-likely-to-take-part-in-tv-debates-1.3627252

Capt'n Midnight

Alan_P wrote: »

Okay, then. Explain how a sitting candidate, with 50 years worth of electoral exposure, who is at 67% at the start of his reelection campaign, manages to lose ?

Please explain it, in actual demographic terms.

67% and attracted two and a half times as many transfers from the other candidates last time round.

Henryhill2

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Sean g hasn’t a hope.

All any of his opponents have to do is raise the issue of him collecting envelopes on behalf of ff

And that’s all they have to do to turn ppl away from him.

Don't agree with that

He's already carrying that baggage ,raising the issue wont change much.

Unlikely it will be raised by anyone except SF imo if at all

Henryhill2

I can't envisage any way MDH loses

Age is actually an advantage for the job

I think SG and Duffy (if he's helping SG) will take low-key potshots at MDH to little effect

Gallagher will have spin about expanding the role

Loafing Oaf

Just wondering, if we are talking about a race for second, is it only first preferences that are counted if MDH is elected on the first count? You'd think Ni Riada would pick up a lot of his surplus, but that won't be taken into account right?

pixelburp

The only scenario I can see Higgins pipped at the post is that the inevitably low turnout favours another candidate through voter apathy and engaged rival.

There's little doubt the animation of debate here is not reflective of the broader enthusiasm for this election. But that same logic could also default Higgins to success too, the average voter sticking with the safe, default preference - Higgins.

With the final tally of candidates in front of me, I find myself looping back to the line of thinking that this election is a colossal waste of time and money. Businessmen trying to indulge in state funded nepotism, under the guide of the democratic principle.

Henryhill2

The media and spin is Duffy's game so he will be clever about it if he's assisting Gallagher in any way.

I'm not following the financial side of things but I assume the likes of Duffy and Gallagher are not throwing their own money away here?