Mart Price Tracker

TooOldBoots · 28-08-2018 05:52PM

I did Fresians one winter, turnned out well, but I had 2 issues. One they just kept growing the frame and ended up holdng them till nearly October the following year. The Other issue is while in the shed I don't think they took their head back from the feed barrior all winter. Just constantly eating and eating!
I just find the whitehead lays down a the layer of fat a bit easier

marathon · 28-08-2018 07:02PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I would not let the price of ration stop me from over wintering stores if I had enough fodder. Reading todays indo we have not seen the borttom yet. Bigger finishers are selling silage rather than filling sheds and buying ration. Big difference between feeding 3kgs/day and 10kg/day to finishing cattle. On stores higher ration prices add 15-25c/head/day. On a 80 day winter asssuming you stop 40 days before turnout to benefit from compensatory growth it is about 16 euro/head over the winter. Personnelly I never feed stores meal over the winter.

The issue with overwinter this year is if you do not have fodder. Bales at 40 to 50 euro delivered into your yard will leave no margin especially if you end up buying poorer quality silage. If it was me I be looking at friesian stores which are trading in the 1-1.2/kg bracket. A 450 kg store for 500 euro. If he put on 220kg like the WH bullocks he weight 670 kgs next May/June

WH bullock 430kgs costing 700 euro. 650 kgs next May KO=335kgs O+ @4.2/kg=1407 euro. Gross margin=707 euro

Friesian 450 cosing 500 euro. 670kgs next May/June KO= 325kgs O-@ 3.9/kg=1267 euro. Gross margin= 767 euro.

I actually expect the Friesian to gain more weight than the WH if both were treated exactly the same.

Would u buy in friesains now or wait n put straight into shed?

Danzy · 28-08-2018 07:37PM

TooOldBoots wrote: »

I think farmers have become over pessimisstic. Brexit is Brexit but the 70 million people over there still have to eat. Australia is suffering from its worst drought in history with no sign of any rains there and they are entering their summer. The Chinese are buying up all the excess south american beef. The US can hardly supply their own needs. Where are the British going to get their food from?
Ground is in great condition, dry and warm and by the looks of things ground conditions will at the very worst case hold up for another 10 weeks and with a good autumn we could be looking at having cattle out until mid December.

I've decided to stock up on those cheap stores, I sourced 12 lovely wh stores bullocks 17 month old 430kg €700 euros, cheap as chips and still a full year away from 30 months. I'll take more when I get them too!

People are being pessimistic and they have had lots of reasons to be for the last 14 months, in many places.

Pockets and confidence have taken a battering and people are retrenching, get over this winter and move on a fresh next year.

I agree that there is grounds for optimism on beef prices, demand is rising and many key global suppliers have had a hard year. We are the 6th largest exporter of beef.

Brexit will I suspect be resolved, too much to loose on all sides but if it does not, then WTO rules will apply and that means our beef being up to 4 euro a KG dearer than Australian or Brazilian beef when sold in Britain.

It is a blessed year for those who have a yard full of feed.

Bass Reeves · 28-08-2018 09:51PM

marathon wrote: »

Would u buy in friesains now or wait n put straight into shed?

The advantage of buying now is that cattle (this is just not particular to friesians) bought now will have 50+ kg put on by housing. The other advantage is if you have grass any cattle bought now may have a bit of compensatory growth on them this is better handled at grass rather than in a shed. A 400-450 kg store bought now will be 450-500+ at housing and if you have plenty of grass the hungry edge will be gone off them by housing.

But it is all related to prices. Cattle more than likely will still fall another bit in price, however it is likely that cattle that are really cheap now will not drop as much as cattle that are holding there value. For instance bucket fed weanlings are very bad value compared to store prices.

marathon · 28-08-2018 10:26PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The advantage of buying now is that cattle (this is just not particular to friesians) bought now will have 50+ kg put on by housing. The other advantage is if you have grass any cattle bought now may have a bit of compensatory growth on them this is better handled at grass rather than in a shed. A 400-450 kg store bought now will be 450-500+ at housing and if you have plenty of grass the hungry edge will be gone off them by housing.

But it is all related to prices. Cattle more than likely will still fall another bit in price, however it is likely that cattle that are really cheap now will not drop as much as cattle that are holding there value. For instance bucket fed weanlings are very bad value compared to store prices.

Have grass I think ul b investing next week cheers

marathon · 28-08-2018 10:27PM

marathon wrote: »

Have grass I think ul b investing next week cheers

Il

coolshannagh28 · 28-08-2018 10:27PM

The blood will be on the street in late feb ,early march buy cheap ,turnout ,maximise compensatory growth and sell July.

Welding Rod · 30-08-2018 03:32PM

Good R grade heifer weanlings with the stars are great value now for a person with enough fodder.
Winter them well. Bull them. Sell as springers Feb / March 2020.

Danzy · 30-08-2018 10:20PM

A group of 5 Friesian bullocks,352kg, born circa March last year, went for .91 a kg in Thurles, so 320 a head.

Maybe they are Holsteiny, the year that is in it and all that but .91 a kg is a low floor for anything.

Bass Reeves · 31-08-2018 12:30AM

Danzy wrote: »

A group of 5 Friesian bullocks,352kg, born circa March last year, went for .91 a kg in Thurles, so 320 a head.

Maybe they are Holsteiny, the year that is in it and all that but .91 a kg is a low floor for anything.

Holstein or no holstein, considering it is late August there is money to be made on them. I would be slow to buy outside a mart at present. too much value there. Killing 325 kgs next year( july/august)@3.5/kg you are looking at 1150 euro. For any lad willing to look long term there is value there.

Danzy · 31-08-2018 06:50AM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Holstein or no holstein, considering it is late August there is money to be made on them. I would be slow to buy outside a mart at present. too much value there. Killing 325 kgs next year( july/august)@3.5/kg you are looking at 1150 euro. For any lad willing to look long term there is value there.

Completely agree, they are the ones to buy.

There is many a lad who bought a Charolais in the same mart and laughed at those cattle who'll never see anything like what the ones above could leave.

cute geoge · 31-08-2018 09:35AM

Danzy wrote: »

A group of 5 Friesian bullocks,352kg, born circa March last year, went for .91 a kg in Thurles, so 320 a head.

Maybe they are Holsteiny, the year that is in it and all that but .91 a kg is a low floor for anything.

That is a dire price but any farmer selling at that price must not have much of a head on him ,prices poor in listowel but a lot of stock not sold ,you would think the end of the world was near listening to the tanglers and them telling you prices will be worse next week.
IMO mart prices have only one way to go!!!!

mahoney_j · 31-08-2018 09:47AM

cute geoge wrote: »

That is a dire price but any farmer selling at that price must not have much of a head on him ,prices poor in listowel but a lot of stock not sold ,you would think the end of the world was near listening to the tanglers and them telling you prices will be worse next week.
IMO mart prices have only one way to go!!!!

Dairy bred beef stock and fr bulls only going one way ,the market is dead for them and the big flush hasn’t even come out yet ,lack of feed ,cash flow ,turkey situation and lesser extent brexit has a floor on market that may not be even reached yet .i could in no way justify keeping such ainmals till next March/April even with adequate feed in yard it simply won’t pay this year

Willfarman · 31-08-2018 10:00AM

There are no bargains in marts in the south east which got the absaloute brunt of the drought. Plain dairy cattle are only realistic but putting for talks sake 250€ to them for what they’ll need to carry them to the spring grass and taking a rough guess at their liveweight and value they are not that cheap.

A few narrow Holstein cross aa 17 born 430kg enniscorthy €640. The guy selling thought he was being rode in a sand pit but truth is the buyer will have f all out of them.
€640 + €10 commission +€10 transport +€50 for grass and dose till housing.
€250 for feed till March. Realistic liveweight at this point 550kgs max. Value.? 900 to 1000?
Or graze them for 3 months and put some meal into them.. another €100. Into slaney meats where they will grade p= to o+. Lucky if they clear €1100.

patsy_mccabe · 31-08-2018 10:15AM

And still at Ennis mart last week, saw a lot of quality weanling bulls go over the €1000 mark. In fact saw a few sell at €1200 and the odd exceptional one one go to €1400.

Danzy · 31-08-2018 10:18AM

cute geoge wrote: »

That is a dire price but any farmer selling at that price must not have much of a head on him ,prices poor in listowel but a lot of stock not sold ,you would think the end of the world was near listening to the tanglers and them telling you prices will be worse next week.
IMO mart prices have only one way to go!!!!

They are only going one way and that is down.

Mart sales for May, June, July were near half of what they were normally, all that is still in the pipeline, along with the numbers coming now.

As you say the stock not sold as well, that will be back in the Mart door in a bit, along with all the rest.

Add in severe shortages of fodder, Ration at 300, feed lots stepping back from it this year.

Danzy · 31-08-2018 10:20AM

mahoney_j wrote: »

Dairy bred beef stock and fr bulls only going one way ,the market is dead for them and the big flush hasn’t even come out yet ,lack of feed ,cash flow ,turkey situation and lesser extent brexit has a floor on market that may not be even reached yet .i could in no way justify keeping such ainmals till next March/April even with adequate feed in yard it simply won’t pay this year

If it is a bad Brexit, ie no deal of any kind then the breed won't matter, they'll be for nothing.

7 35 a KG to a shop in Britain, at current prices, in that scenario.

Bass Reeves · 31-08-2018 11:32AM

cute geoge wrote: »

That is a dire price but any farmer selling at that price must not have much of a head on him ,prices poor in listowel but a lot of stock not sold ,you would think the end of the world was near listening to the tanglers and them telling you prices will be worse next week.
IMO mart prices have only one way to go!!!!

There are two issues facing farmers. One silage is worth 40/bale and anyone selling should and will insist of payment up front. With ration prices wintering will be up on 2 euro/day if you take the cash value of the silage into account. Turkey is nearly closed because of lira value. Lads are unwilling to finish cattle this winter because of costs and getting burnt over last couple of years. Processors are unwilling to to issue contracts for cattle and as well are only paying 1.7/kg for AA and HE bulls and bullocks for there own feedlots.

If you had 250 bales of good dry silage would you buy cattle or take the 10K+ that a dairy farmer will give you for it.

patsy_mccabe · 31-08-2018 11:57AM

If you sell all your silage, what do you do next year? Do you restock again and at what price? What will cattle prices be like next year? What are the tax implications?

Danzy · 31-08-2018 12:13PM

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

If you sell all your silage, what do you do next year? Do you restock again and at what price? What will cattle prices be like next year? What are the tax implications?

I think that Cattle prices will be soft, to one degree or another till next April.

An early turn out would help that though.

No idea for the implications.

Buy Wagyu Cows and a bull.

a dozen of them will tie up a fortune.

patsy_mccabe · 31-08-2018 12:22PM

I'd be very slow to destock when prices are low. I know guys are short of fodder and all that, but trying to restock again if prices lift and you'll get hit with even more losses. Cattle may get sold cheap this autumn, but for every seller there will be a buyer.

grassroot1 · 31-08-2018 01:09PM

Danzy wrote:

7 35 a KG to a shop in Britain, at current prices, in that scenario.

Where are you coming up with those figures from?

Danzy · 31-08-2018 01:28PM

grassroot1 wrote: »

Where are you coming up with those figures from?

Under WTO trade rules, countries that do not have a trade deal in place automatically have to use WTO rules, nearly every country in the world is a member of the WTO.

In relation to beef, there is a 3 euro tariff per KG and a 12.5% tariff on the value of that KG.

So at 3.85 a KG for a base steer, the rest is tariffs and that is before the factory or anyone else after have made a red cent.

Personally I think a deal will be done, even if it is only agreeing to leave things for a few years till a deal is done.

A complete no deal brexit will do wreck to Irish farming, and lot of other parts of economies in Britain and in the EU.

pat73 · 31-08-2018 03:47PM

I was talking to a factory agent yesterday and was asking him about prices now and next year as you do.He thinks that alot of winter finishers will not finish this winter as we all know they wont be money in it.No secret there.They will feed them away with silage and try to finish them off grass next year if they keep cattle.His worry was that they wont be able to source cattle early next year but they will be a glut of them next summer when all the usual cattle finished in the winter come out with the usual summer cattle.

Cavanjack · 31-08-2018 06:17PM

pat73 wrote: »

I was talking to a factory agent yesterday and was asking him about prices now and next year as you do.He thinks that alot of winter finishers will not finish this winter as we all know they wont be money in it.No secret there.They will feed them away with silage and try to finish them off grass next year if they keep cattle.His worry was that they wont be able to source cattle early next year but they will be a glut of them next summer when all the usual cattle finished in the winter come out with the usual summer cattle.

I think it's the same story every year with people saying that nobody will finish cattle out of sheds this winter. There is always a steady supply out of sheds every year imo

pat73 · 31-08-2018 07:02PM

Has anyone in the winter finishing game made up what the daily costs could be of finishing cattle and the factory price they need to make a profit this winter.with feed price going up and maybe some have to factor in buying in expensive silage or other types of feed is it a case of been a busy fool this winter at best.

Willfarman · 31-08-2018 07:03PM

The usual suspects around here are buying away as usual anyway.

patsy_mccabe · 31-08-2018 07:17PM

For as long as I can remember, I've been reading in the Journal how winter finishers need a much higher price to make a margin. This year will be no different......and still cattle will be bought and sold.
If you get out when prices are low, how do you get back in when they are higher?

grange mac · 31-08-2018 07:39PM

Willfarman wrote: »

The usual suspects around here are buying away as usual anyway.

Just back from Gortalea mart, unlike my local mart. Loads buyers up there buying contential bullocks at proper prices. Prices b shocking only for the northern buyers-just a pity local tanglers have local marts wrapped up.

leoch · 31-08-2018 07:59PM

Were are the northern buyers from.do u mean northern ireland i thought there was some kind of tarrif or export duty on cattle going into northern ireland

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