Is a Bad Brexit good for Ireland?

B-D-P-- wrote: »

Following on from David Davis' resignation, I'm starting to ponder.
Taking out the "we don't like to see England succeed" attitude.

Looking at our own road, Is a bad Brexit (not to be confused with hard) good for Ireland.
Now that the "British Bulldog" has up and gone from his seat, Britain have lost a strong negotiator.

Brexit itself is not going to be good for our economy, however does this make it less bad?

SNIP. No name calling please.
We could have got a great deal out of the situation because we should have told the EU that the border etc affects only Ireland. We should have had our own unique deal with our oldest trading partner without the interference from the EU.
Unfortunately Varadkar is an EU yes man so will never have the cojones to stand up for whats best for his OWN country

There is one way in which Brexit could be good for at least some Irish people - a hard Brexit could lead to the end of the UK with Scotland leaving to rejoin the EU. If the recession/inflation/devaluation/disinvestment/unemployment in the UK is particularly harsh, and the Republic within the EU continues to thrive, the middle ground in Northern Ireland may shift to thinking a United Ireland is a better idea than remaining handcuffed to the Sick Man of Europe.

That said, there isn't a lot of middle ground in NI to begin with, and not everyone in the Republic would welcome a United Ireland, especially since the only way this happens if if NI itself gets hammered economically and is thus an even less inviting partner than they are today.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

There is one way in which Brexit could be good for at least some Irish people - a hard Brexit could lead to the end of the UK with Scotland leaving to rejoin the EU. If the recession/inflation/devaluation/disinvestment/unemployment in the UK is particularly harsh, and the Republic within the EU continues to thrive, the middle ground in Northern Ireland may shift to thinking a United Ireland is a better idea than remaining handcuffed to the Sick Man of Europe.

That said, there isn't a lot of middle ground in NI to begin with, and not everyone in the Republic would welcome a United Ireland, especially since the only way this happens if if NI itself gets hammered economically and is thus an even less inviting partner than they are today.

Will we still be thriving when the EU force us to raise our corporation tax to be more in line with France/Germany?
The EU cares very little about Ireland, they are just using us to punish the UK.

Help!!!! wrote: »

Unfortunately Varadkar & Coveney are all out for punishing the UK so they will get a pat on the head from their EU masters
We should be pushing for our own unique deal with the UK over the border, trade etc. We have done enough for the EU, taking on majority of banking debt for example to be allowed to do this.

Theres no easy solutions here.

Do you think a grateful England will give little old Ireland a wonderful deal? They will in their sh*te!

I kind of feel the OP is some milder and / or more cogent version of the below nonsense ultimately:

Help!!!! wrote: »

We could have got a great deal out of the situation because we should have told the EU that the border etc affects only Ireland. We should have had our own unique deal with our oldest trading partner without the interference from the EU.
Unfortunately Varadkar is an EU yes man so will never have the cojones to stand up for whats best for his OWN country

But let's work on this basis:

troyzer wrote: »

I think what the OP means is that regardless of what the outcome is vis a vis hard vs soft. Does Ireland in general benefit from an objectively bad Brexit in terms of job losses, wage stagnation, recession etc. This can happen regardless of whether it's hard or soft and all parties would agree it's a "bad" Brexit.

The softest possible Brexit would be Britain moving to the Norway model, technically out of the EU but with no discernible economic impact. That is off the table because of the political drivers in Britain. And so, we end up with a range of Brexits that become ever more damaging or objectively "bad" up to the no agreement crash out Brexit that could cause economic calamity in the short term. That is what every credible economic prediction says on the matter. There is hand waving about global trade deals and milk and honey from afar but that has failed to be quantified in a realistic timetabled way.

Therefore the simple answer is that Ireland - as a country beside the UK with whom and through whom we do a large volume of trade - will suffer negatively. There will be some offset from business setting up here that would otherwise have pitched their tents within the UK but, in a similar way that Britain is not prepared for a Hard Brexit, we don't have the infrastructure and capacity to take over enough of that business to compensate for trade difficulties, movement of labour difficulties and so on.

But that does not mean that it would be in our long term interest to play our cards differently than we have been doing. Once Britain decided to Brexit, we had to accept some sort of economic impact. Playing the long game, it is not in our interest to try and mitigate that by closer alignment with Britain. Right now they are not the horse to back over the 27 member EU with its associated International trade deals. They have a long way yet to go on this round of political instability and face a very uncertain economic future. Certain Brexit scenarios could involve a transition to a low tax low regulation low workers rights economy that we want no part of.

To those that would counter by arguing that we could have played a major role in advocating for a bespoke British deal, I'd ask them to consider the long term effect that the larger EU nations angling for bespoke deals might have on a small open economy like ours? The expansion and strengthening of the EU is "good" for us; economic nationalism and destabilisation of our largest overall economic partner could only be "bad".

Help!!!! wrote: »

Will we still be thriving when the EU force us to raise our corporation tax to be more in line with France/Germany?

That is not within the EUs power.

But yes, if we volunteered to raise our on-paper rate to be the same as France/Germany, we could still thrive.

My concern would be more that some new 2008/PIIGS/banks etc. crisis within the EU hits us. (Of course any such will hit the Brexited UK harder, but it would make us a less attractive partner for NI folks.)

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I kind of feel the OP is some milder and / or more cogent version of the below nonsense ultimately:



But let's work on this basis:



The softest possible Brexit would be Britain moving to the Norway model, technically out of the EU but with no discernible economic impact. That is off the table because of the political drivers in Britain. And so, we end up with a range of Brexits that become ever more damaging or objectively "bad" up to the no agreement crash out Brexit that could cause economic calamity in the short term. That is what every credible economic prediction says on the matter. There is hand waving about global trade deals and milk and honey from afar but that has failed to be quantified in a realistic timetabled way.

Therefore the simple answer is that Ireland - as a country beside the UK with whom and through whom we do a large volume of trade - will suffer negatively. There will be some offset from business setting up here that would otherwise have pitched their tents within the UK but, in a similar way that Britain is not prepared for a Hard Brexit, we don't have the infrastructure and capacity to take over enough of that business to compensate for trade difficulties, movement of labour difficulties and so on.

But that does not mean that it would be in our long term interest to play our cards differently than we have been doing. Once Britain decided to Brexit, we had to accept some sort of economic impact. Playing the long game, it is not in our interest to try and mitigate that by closer alignment with Britain. Right now they are not the horse to back over the 27 member EU with its associated International trade deals. They have a long way yet to go on this round of political instability and face a very uncertain economic future. Certain Brexit scenarios could involve a transition to a low tax low regulation low workers rights economy that we want no part of.

To those that would counter by arguing that we could have played a major role in advocating for a bespoke British deal, I'd ask them to consider the long term effect that the larger EU nations angling for bespoke deals might have on a small open economy like ours? The expansion and strengthening of the EU is "good" for us; economic nationalism and destabilisation of our largest overall economic partner could only be "bad".

You really think we are going to benefit from companies coming here? What about when the EU force us to raise corporation tax?
We could have angled for a bespoke deal because of the position we are in, the history, location etc. The rest of the EU does not need a bespoke deal.
I for one would be keen to see the break up of the EU in its present form. We signed up for a single market not to be told by those in Brussels how our country should be run

Economically generally bad. It is predicted that Ireland will experience more of an economic hit than the UK due to brexit, however neither country will experience anything like the financial crisis.

The hit will affect Ireland differently to the UK. We will probably see some gains in the multinational sector whereas the UK will lose in that same area as some multinationals seek to move their headquarters. The hit in Ireland will be felt more in the smaller companies particularly agribusiness. These employ a lot of people in Ireland.

I can understand the EUs reluctance to make exceptions for the UK however it has to be remembered that the UK is merely exercising its right to leave. Leaving the EU and leaving the single market is not breaking any rules.

Where the EU is being unreasonable is insisting that there can be no deal whatsoever that involves any sort of border in the North even though a border of some sort is inevitable. It is simply a consequence of the UK leaving the single market, something it is fully entitled to do. I believe the EU are using this as an excuse not to do a deal with the UK. I don't think Ireland, were it free to do its own deal, would act in this way.

The EU talks a lot of standing behind Ireland, but I think in reality Ireland is standing behind the EU on this. It will backfire on us. No deal will lead to the hardest of hard borders, the thing we are supposedly against. In addition our economy will suffer. The EU can much more afford to take the hard line as the economic impact in most EU countries is negligible, unlike Ireland.

Contrary to what some believe, in a no deal scenario, I don't think the UK will be back looking to reenter the EU a few years later. We will have a hard border with the North (built by the EU) and difficult trading conditions with the UK and that will be a permanent condition.

I think the problem for Varadkar as with all taoiseachs is that he needs to project an image of influence in Europe to the electorate back home. There fore if the EU takes a strong line on something that affects Ireland, Varadkar has to back it or otherwise look weak. We are too small to have any influence in reality. Look at our attempt to get some compensation for the bank bailouts which was quietly dropped after a few years.

Of course if the UK back down and stay in the single market, then the hard line will have paid off. But it is Ireland taking the risk here, not the EU as a whole.

Bit cynical wrote: »

It is predicted that Ireland will experience more of an economic hit than the UK due to brexit

The Irish Government estimated Brexit would knock 0.5% off our growth, the UK Government estimated 3-6% off theirs.

WinnyThePoo wrote: »

Can't see this happening at all. Ireland is pro Europe for the right reasons.

Irish people are pro Europe, yes.... pro EU, not so much anymore.
There is a growing number of EU sceptics. We joined for a single market, not an EU army, not to be told that we must raise out corporation tax because its unfair to Germany/France etc

Help!!!! wrote: »

Irish people are pro Europe, yes.... pro EU, not so much anymore.
There is a growing number of EU sceptics. We joined for a single market, not an EU army, not to be told that we must raise out corporation tax because its unfair to Germany/France etc

No there is not, Do you have any remote evidence to back up your claim.

I dont know maybe some official survey , stats or actual details ?

Help!!!! wrote: »

Irish people are pro Europe, yes.... pro EU, not so much anymore.
There is a growing number of EU sceptics. We joined for a single market, not an EU army, not to be told that we must raise out corporation tax because its unfair to Germany/France etc

Evidence please.

listermint wrote: »

No there is not, Do you have any remote evidence to back up your claim.

I dont know maybe some official survey , stats or actual details ?

Maybe if you left Dublin you would not hear the from the same EU echo chamber
Outside of Dublin there are many EU sceptics