Is a Bad Brexit good for Ireland?

Zubeneschamali

Bit cynical wrote: »

Yet the EU report suggest that Ireland pays an economic price much much the same as the UK for Brexit. You were asking for figures. Shall I try to find the ESRI report?

2.25 is supposed to be the pessimistic UK figure by 2030? Pull the other one.

The UK government were saying 6% was pessimistic before the referendum, but they meant an organized withdrawal.

Crashout next March without preparation will cost them more than 2% just next March, never mind by 2030.

Bit cynical

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

2.25 is supposed to be the pessimistic UK figure by 2030? Pull the other one.

The UK government were saying 6% was pessimistic before the referendum, but they meant an organized withdrawal.

Crashout next March without preparation will cost them more than 2% just next March, never mind by 2030.

I agree. There will be significant short term disruption but remember that the forecast is over a period up to 2020.

However I'm just trying to answer the OP's question about the impact on Ireland. I'm not an economist so I have to go on what the economic reports say.

Madd Finn

Help!!!! wrote: »

Unfortunately Varadkar & Coveney are all out for punishing the UK

Explain, pray, the logic and/or evidence underlying that conclusion.

you don't have to believe everything the deranged Eoghan Harris writes on the subject, you know. Unless of course......;)

Bit cynical

Madd Finn wrote: »

Explain, pray, the logic and/or evidence underlying that conclusion.

you don't have to believe everything the deranged Eoghan Harris writes on the subject, you know. Unless of course......;)

Personally I think it is more the EU out to punish the UK and Ireland more or less has to go along with it, at least in public.

Madd Finn

Help!!!! wrote: »

I for one would be keen to see the break up of the EU in its present form. We signed up for a single market not to be told by those in Brussels how our country should be run

Even the British government in its first White Paper on Brexit (after the vote) said "Parliament has remained sovereign throughout our membership to the EU" although, it added, some people "may not have felt that".

THat's HM Government itself, sworn to deliver on the referendum result demanded by its electorate.

Brussels does not "tell us how our country should be run" It sets ground rules on inter (and indeed extra) community trade, and issues very general directives on matters like environmental policy and workers rights but all essential legislation is very much in the hands of individual sovereign governments.

If some of the more disgruntled Brits (and it appears quite a few disgruntled Paddies as well) felt that the reason for their general happiness was a "feeling" that they were being told what to do in every aspect of their lives by a bunch of "unelected Brussels bureaucrats" then maybe what they need is a good of old-fashioned peppery advice from a renowned right winger like Ben Shapiro who is fond of the adage "the facts don't care about your feelings!"

The EU is the best model yet for peaceful co-existence between European nations. A major hostile rival (which Britain is showing signs of becoming) is a threat to all that is good about Europe.

Which is not the same as saying that everything about Europe is good. But Brexiteers are bad. Very very bad!!!

ancapailldorcha

Off topic posts deleted. Posters wanting to discuss the merits of Ireland leaving the EU are welcome to start a new thread.

briany

Madd Finn wrote: »

The EU is the best model yet for peaceful co-existence between European nations. A major hostile rival (which Britain is showing signs of becoming) is a threat to all that is good about Europe.

When people advocate against the EU, it shows a certain ignorance about world politics. As it stands today, there are powers with spheres of influence like the USA, China and Russia. When the Trump's USA and Putin's Russia speak favourably about a weakening EU, they're not championing European freedom - they're attempting to create ground to extend their influence upon. It's funny to me when someone like Farage talks about how leaving the EU will be great on one hand, and on the other talks about getting into bed with the United States. Does he think that will in any way be a relationship of equals?

As many have stated, the EU is not perfect, but pondering the alternatives would keep you awake at night.

Jim2007

Help!!!! wrote: »

Well wouldn't it have been better to try rather than come out all guns blazing 'punish them'?
I bet we would have gotten a better deal than the one we end up with

Based on your posts you obviously got your own little agenda going here, but is not based on reality.

Nobody has set out to punish the UK, there is no need to because they are doing it to themselves, by their failure to understand how the EU works and the consequences of their decisions. The EU is a rule based organization and has done nothing but seek to follow the agreed rules and procedures.

Get out A50 and read it. It very clearly states the every treaty right and obligation terminates with the invocation of A50, that means out of everything from pets passports to EURTAOM.

And as for your betting about a better deal, if you do another bit of digging in the treaties while you have them out, you’ll understand why there is not the remotest possibility of that.

badtoro

Help!!!! wrote: »

Speaking to people around the country, Dublin may be pro EU. There are many outside that are not so much

I'm as far outside Dublin as you can get, I'd agree there are euro sceptics. Some have decent gripes like fishermen, others are tbh ignorant, but they still get to vote! I am pro EU more because it's not in my interests to let Dublin have 100% say in my life than anything else. We are a corrupt country, I like having another level to go to if necessary.

oscarBravo

briany wrote: »

As many have stated, the EU is not perfect, but...

It is a phrase I've seen a lot lately. And, while it's true (in fact, it's basically a truism - who has ever claimed that the EU is perfect?), it's actually a slightly strange thing to have to say.

What would a "perfect" EU even look like? Is there an optimum version of the EU that would make every EU citizen completely happy? The question basically answers itself.

Everyone who responds to an anti-EU screed feels the need to defensively preface their remarks with something like "there are a lot of areas where the EU could improve, but..." - but are there, really? That is to say: there are areas where I think the EU could better conform to my personal ideals, but if it were to change to suit me, it would suit other people less, and vice versa.

The EU is a construct of that most implausible of things: a consensus between half a billion people. The idea of it being "perfect" is so inherently ridiculous that nobody should ever have to reflexively defend the fact that it isn't.

What the EU definitely is, is better than the alternative - except by one metric, and that's the fetishisation of national sovereignty.

maninasia

Help!!!! wrote: »

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Yes, to some extent. What about all the things that have yet to happen?

The bolded colours (I could say poisons) the rest of your views. Brexit is driven by the same hard edge, it wants chaos no matter the economic cost. Those driving it stand to profit by certain types of Brexit, ideologically or financially where an agenda of low regulations / low rights could be more easily pursued outside of the EU. They have captured a coalition of racists, jingoists, older people and the economically desperate all for whom (for different reasons) "Brexit" can be twisted to be well worth the economic pitfalls.

For the racists, that the majority of the immigration they fear / loathe comes from outside the EU doesn't seem to matter. For the jingoists, that Brexit will significantly reduce Britain's influence and reputation in the world doesn't seem to matter. For the older people looking backward who have secured the end of their life no negative outcome probably does matter. And for the economically desperate, I can't personally blame them gambling on something / anything different after eight years of savage austerity in a failing society.

I for one want no part of any of this mess. Our democracy is as strong and as robust as it has ever been, able to navigate the challenges of Brexit and Repeal despite a minority government. For the social problems we face with regards to housing and homelessness, you'd have some job convincing me that throwing in with the Conservatives and their war on the poor of British society would be a movement in the right direction.

There were many of migrant backgrounds who voted. Many who went to live in the 50s/60s etc who went for a better life to see that their better life was turning into the country they left because of the recent immigration.
The conservatives & labour are as bad as each other. The same way as FF/FG/SF are all the same. They care nothing for the people that elected them
Give it a few years & people will start to revolt here the same as what they did in the UK

That's your spin.

A lot of subcontinent Immigrants voted against EU membership cos they think the Europeans were getting preferential treatment and hoped theirnkot could then get in easier.

They were wrong.

maninasia

Bit cynical wrote: »

Madd Finn wrote: »

Explain, pray, the logic and/or evidence underlying that conclusion.

you don't have to believe everything the deranged Eoghan Harris writes on the subject, you know. Unless of course......;)

Personally I think it is more the EU out to punish the UK and Ireland more or less has to go along with it, at least in public.

I don't buy it.

Baby UK throws toys out of the pram saying they don't want of the obligations ..Paying money in, freedom of movement, open borders , shared regulations and European court of Justice.

Spends years blaming all the 'bad' stuff in the UK on the EU and foreign immigrants.

Then asks for same benefits of membership.

Bit cynical

maninasia wrote: »

I don't buy it.

Baby UK throws toys out of the pram saying they don't want of the obligations ..Paying money in, freedom of movement, open borders , shared regulations and European court of Justice.

Spends years blaming all the 'bad' stuff in the UK on the EU and foreign immigrants.

Then asks for same benefits of membership.

But we (Ireland) pay quite a stiff price if no deal is made. Most of the other countries don't. It is far more in our interests that a deal is made than, say, Austria.

rn

There'll be individuals and certain groups and organisations that will benefit from a bad brexit. But overall, any brexit is bad for Ireland and Western Europe in medium to long term.

EdgeCase

Overall it’s bad for Ireland, bad for Europe and just bad generally and really terrible for the UK. We can and will make the best of a bad situation and some sectors of the economy may well benefit, while others may disproportionately lose out. It’s far from ideal and it fundamentally alters our relationship with the UK and a very negative and toxic way.

The UK-Irish relationship has grown into a very strong two way trade partnership and relations are (or were) better than probably at any time in the last few centurie, but there’s nothing we can do about the UK deciding to go down this path. It’s their choice, all we can really do is mitigate as best we can against the consequences.

Joining the UK in this venture into jingoistic politics would be utterly stupid and self-destructive and it’s clear that we are well aware of that. So, we are really stuck with a situation that isn’t of our making and that is beyond our control. I can’t really see any positive outcome for the UK and that will inevitably have consequences here. All we can do is batten down the hatches and prepare for rough waters ahead, put Irish interests first and just get on with it.

My view of it is, while we shouldn’t gloat or unnecessarily antagonise, we need to ensure we get any economic benefits we can to counteract the inevitable costs of Brexit to the Irish economy. That means ensuing we grab as many UK based business as we can and it also means cutting ties wheee necessary.

blanch152

oscarBravo wrote: »

It is a phrase I've seen a lot lately. And, while it's true (in fact, it's basically a truism - who has ever claimed that the EU is perfect?), it's actually a slightly strange thing to have to say.

What would a "perfect" EU even look like? Is there an optimum version of the EU that would make every EU citizen completely happy? The question basically answers itself.

Everyone who responds to an anti-EU screed feels the need to defensively preface their remarks with something like "there are a lot of areas where the EU could improve, but..." - but are there, really? That is to say: there are areas where I think the EU could better conform to my personal ideals, but if it were to change to suit me, it would suit other people less, and vice versa.

The EU is a construct of that most implausible of things: a consensus between half a billion people. The idea of it being "perfect" is so inherently ridiculous that nobody should ever have to reflexively defend the fact that it isn't.

What the EU definitely is, is better than the alternative - except by one metric, and that's the fetishisation of national sovereignty.

Absolutely agree with this.

And if the EU was perfect for one country, that would mean it was an effective colonisation of Europe by one country. It isn't perfect for Germany, it isn't perfect for Ireland, it isn't perfect for the UK, that is why there is always some group, large or small of Eurosceptics in every country but as you point out, it is better than any alternative.

Look at the list of preferable outcomes for Ireland from the current situation:

1. A reversal of Brexit
2. A soft Brexit
3. A hard Brexit
4. Join the UK in leaving the EU

Completely clear from that that the EU is better than all alternatives.

EdgeCase

Option 4. is a total non-starter, both for practical reasons; we'd lose all our FDI which his only here to be an EU location and for historical reasons, a lot of Irish people would be totally opposed to the concept of rejoining the UK.

Capt'n Midnight

Yes Brexit will be bad for us. But it's already been bad for the UK
Brexit Has Already Slowed U.K. Growth by 2.1%

A new analysis has found that the U.K.’s decision to exit the European Union has already slowed the nation’s economic growth by a cumulative 2.1% as of the first quarter of 2018, compared to likely results had Brexit been rejected two years ago. The study also found that the referendum vote is now costing the British government £440 million ($584 million) per week in lost tax revenue,

Irish growth is expected be 5.6% this year and 4% next year.

blanch152 wrote:

Look at the list of preferable outcomes for Ireland from the current situation:

1. A reversal of Brexit
2. A soft Brexit
3. A hard Brexit
4. Join the UK in leaving the EU

Option 1 should read - Reversal of Article 50.
Brexit hasn't happened yet.


Option 4 is a complete non starter.
Lots of small EU countries are worried about big neighbours. Even the big ones apart from the UK, still have bad memories about WWII and Yugoslavia, and Russia isn't exactly a million miles away.

We've had consensus and partnerships, the sort of stuff the Conservatives are trying to pull off in the UK re health and welfare and education would be beyond the pale even for FG. So we're not going to row in behind them.

blanch152

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Yes Brexit will be bad for us. But it's already been bad for the UK
Brexit Has Already Slowed U.K. Growth by 2.1%

Irish growth is expected be 5.6% this year and 4% next year.



Option 1 should read - Reversal of Article 50.
Brexit hasn't happened yet.


Option 4 is a complete non starter.
Lots of small EU countries are worried about big neighbours. Even the big ones apart from the UK, still have bad memories about WWII and Yugoslavia, and Russia isn't exactly a million miles away.

We've had consensus and partnerships, the sort of stuff the Conservatives are trying to pull off in the UK re health and welfare and education would be beyond the pale even for FG. So we're not going to row in behind them.

The reason it is option 4 is because of the list of things you mention. Nevertheless, there were some who originally opined we should follow the UK out. They were on the fringes of Irish politics, but they were there. Have largely gone quiet since, but there were a few posters on here advocating it for a while.

Madness, but so is Brexit.

noodler

Euro barometer.

Regular survey of citizens attitudes to eu.

Always quote positive.

daingeanrob

i against the popular opinion would believe that us leaving within 36 months is next. we wont have our near neighbors and cultural similarity in Europe anymore/ .

BonnieSituation

daingeanrob wrote: »

i against the popular opinion would believe that us leaving within 36 months is next. we wont have our near neighbors and cultural similarity in Europe anymore/ .

That's your solid foundation for us, one of the most Europhilic nations in Europe will bow out of the EU on the basis that the absolute shambles across the Irish Sea is what we'd rather just so we can not be lonely as an Ebglish-speaking nation in the EU?

I can't wait to tell that to my kids as we wait in passport control in Kastrup and getting grilled while watching fellow Europeans wander through practically unhindered.

And just today I was booking a trip for later this year that will take me to Amsterdam, then Hamburg and finally Aarhus before flying back home from Denmark to Ireland. And that will happen a week after I get back from Paris.

Why the hell would I and any other Irish person (and I know I'm solely relating this to travel, but it's quantifiable for most...), but why would we want to give that life up to ensure we can get a ferry to Liverpool and go to Rhyl and Pontins?

Mad talk!

badtoro

blanch152 wrote: »

1. A reversal of Brexit
2. A soft Brexit
3. A hard Brexit
4. Join the UK in leaving the EU

Yikes, no to prop 4! They'd treat us like USA will treat UK.

_Brian

Have to be brutal but I’m not sure if enough poaching of U.K. firms is happening.

I doubt Brexit is going to be reversed, lots of business will relocate outside the U.K. I sometimes think our government are too nice to be openly poaching business, I’m confident if the roles were reversed the U.K. would be very vocal.

I think overall it will be a negative for Ireland so whatever business we can relocate here will ease the effects.

blanch152

_Brian wrote: »

Have to be brutal but I’m not sure if enough poaching of U.K. firms is happening.

I doubt Brexit is going to be reversed, lots of business will relocate outside the U.K. I sometimes think our government are too nice to be openly poaching business, I’m confident if the roles were reversed the U.K. would be very vocal.

I think overall it will be a negative for Ireland so whatever business we can relocate here will ease the effects.

This is a concern.

The secondary concern, and a reality, is that any jobs poached from the UK will be different jobs and in different places to the jobs lost as a result of Brexit. We may well see Ireland continue to enjoy economic growth overall, while there are pockets, particularly near the border, that will be enduring economic collapse-like situations.

ancapailldorcha

The IMF has weighed in:

BBC wrote:

Ireland's economy could suffer a 4% hit if the UK and the EU fail to reach a deal following Brexit, the International Monetary Fund has said.

The IMF said that because of the highly integrated nature of the Irish and UK economies, Ireland could face economic consequences as sharp as the UK's.

Across the whole of the EU, the consequences of a "no deal" could be up to 1.5% of economic growth, it says.

Its report looks at possible fall-out from a "cliff-edge" break with the EU.

Unfortunately, I think this talk of poaching business is pure fantasy. Ireland simply hasn't the infrastructure for most of them IMO. Pharmaceutical companies like their R&D plants to be near elite universities like Oxford and Cambridge while Ireland is already a manufacturing hub. Paris and Frankfurt are miles ahead in terms of the financial sector.

Inquitus

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

In long term the Irish food exporters should start a campaign of "clean/organic/quality" food, imports of chlorinated chicken and GMO food will help, i fully expect a decade of food standards scandals are EU quality rules are dropped and gates open to imports from likes of US.

The EU population values the food quality standards we have, and as such I can see no appetite (pun not intended) for lowering those standards and allowing the crap from the US into our countries.

ArthurDayne

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The IMF has weighed in:



Unfortunately, I think this talk of poaching business is pure fantasy. Ireland simply hasn't the infrastructure for most of them IMO. Pharmaceutical companies like their R&D plants to be near elite universities like Oxford and Cambridge while Ireland is already a manufacturing hub. Paris and Frankfurt are miles ahead in terms of the financial sector.

I think the talk of 'poaching' business has been treated somewhat more imaginatively by the general public and the media than it has been treated by the business community. The vista of well-established firms in the Square Mile just upping the sticks of their huge offices from the megalopolis of London into Dublin was and is, for now anyway, a pipe dream.

But I don't think this was ever the vista that the Dublin business community envisaged. Ireland's success over the years has been founded on its position as a business conduit rather than a business centre. Investment funds / asset management are a fairly good example of that, whereby the investment managers continue to reside in Manhattan and Chelsea but use Ireland as the conduit for the domiciliation of assets. This has driven massive growth in the funds support sector domestically -- for the lawyers, accountants, administrators, custodian banks etc.

So where Ireland was previously successful in being a conduit for American businesses driving their business into the EU, that position arguably strengthens as we now become an even more important conduit for English-speaking business all over the world and firms who wish to retain a common law jurisdiction through which to do business in the EU.

Crucially of course, this rings true for businesses dealing with easily transferable assets such as money. It's a different story entirely for those dealing in exports etc .