Is a Bad Brexit good for Ireland?

Nothing in David Davis' tenure as "Brexit" Minister indicated he was a strong negotiator.

What do you mean by a "bad" Brexit? "Hard" and "Soft" are arguably relatively objective terms; but "good" or "bad" are totally subjective.

ancapailldorcha

I've purchased a copy of Tony Connelly's Brexit & Ireland but have yet to get to reading it.

I can't see it being a good thing unless the UK agrees to remain within both the single market and customs union. It is an important trading partner for Ireland. According to RTÉ, the EU goods which are exposed to risk from Brexit are Irish.

The CSO has published a document here for anyone who is interested.

I don't think that Ireland has the infrastructure necessary to hoover up much in the way of British business. I work in science and that is most definitely the case. It's tragic but it is what it is.

By bad Brexit, I presume you mean no deal in which case I have no idea how the border will work. Presumably it will have to be manned which is a disaster in my opinion.

troyzer

I think what the OP means is that regardless of what the outcome is vis a vis hard vs soft. Does Ireland in general benefit from an objectively bad Brexit in terms of job losses, wage stagnation, recession etc. This can happen regardless of whether it's hard or soft and all parties would agree it's a "bad" Brexit.

B-D-P-- wrote: »

Following on from David Davis' resignation, I'm starting to ponder.
Taking out the "we don't like to see England succeed" attitude.

Looking at our own road, Is a bad Brexit (not to be confused with hard) good for Ireland.
Now that the "British Bulldog" has up and gone from his seat, Britain have lost a strong negotiator.

Brexit itself is not going to be good for our economy, however does this make it less bad?

SNIP. No name calling please.
We could have got a great deal out of the situation because we should have told the EU that the border etc affects only Ireland. We should have had our own unique deal with our oldest trading partner without the interference from the EU.
Unfortunately Varadkar is an EU yes man so will never have the cojones to stand up for whats best for his OWN country

Leonard Hofstadter

Well I can only speak for myself, but I have no desire to see England or the rest of the UK 'fail', or be 'punished' for leaving the EU.

It's such a petty minded and narrow minded attitude to have. I lived there for five years and loved it, and I've gone back twice already this year and had a fantastic time again. There's still an awful lot to love about the UK (despite Brexit).

What cannot be allowed happen, though is for the UK to be able to have all the benefits of the EU and the single market, and none of the drawbacks. They especially cannot be allowed welsh out on the commitments they made to Ireland in terms of the border (but in fairness May seems to be committed to this).

Otherwise there's no point in being in the EU at all, and the remaining EU countries are more than three times more important to us (in terms of trade) than the UK is, and then there are other countries, such as Canada, which we have free trade deals with as well (as part of being in the EU).

If they are willing to be more flexible and turn some of their red lines pink, the least we can do is to push the EU to reciprocate.

The best outcome for Ireland (and the UK as it happens) is that as little as possible changes, especially around the border. It's up to the UK Government to decide on that.

There is one way in which Brexit could be good for at least some Irish people - a hard Brexit could lead to the end of the UK with Scotland leaving to rejoin the EU. If the recession/inflation/devaluation/disinvestment/unemployment in the UK is particularly harsh, and the Republic within the EU continues to thrive, the middle ground in Northern Ireland may shift to thinking a United Ireland is a better idea than remaining handcuffed to the Sick Man of Europe.

That said, there isn't a lot of middle ground in NI to begin with, and not everyone in the Republic would welcome a United Ireland, especially since the only way this happens if if NI itself gets hammered economically and is thus an even less inviting partner than they are today.

captainspeed wrote: »

Well I can only speak for myself, but I have no desire to see England or the rest of the UK 'fail', or be 'punished' for leaving the EU.

It's such a petty minded and narrow minded attitude to have. I lived there for five years and loved it, and I've gone back twice already this year and had a fantastic time again. There's still an awful lot to love about the UK (despite Brexit).

What cannot be allowed happen, though is for the UK to be able to have all the benefits of the EU and the single market, and none of the drawbacks. They especially cannot be allowed welsh out on the commitments they made to Ireland in terms of the border (but in fairness May seems to be committed to this).

Otherwise there's no point in being in the EU at all, and the remaining EU countries are more than three times more important to us (in terms of trade) than the UK is, and then there are other countries, such as Canada, which we have free trade deals with as well (as part of being in the EU).

If they are willing to be more flexible and turn some of their red lines pink, the least we can do is to push the EU to reciprocate.

The best outcome for Ireland (and the UK as it happens) is that as little as possible changes, especially around the border. It's up to the UK Government to decide on that.

Unfortunately Varadkar & Coveney are all out for punishing the UK so they will get a pat on the head from their EU masters
We should be pushing for our own unique deal with the UK over the border, trade etc. We have done enough for the EU, taking on majority of banking debt for example to be allowed to do this.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

There is one way in which Brexit could be good for at least some Irish people - a hard Brexit could lead to the end of the UK with Scotland leaving to rejoin the EU. If the recession/inflation/devaluation/disinvestment/unemployment in the UK is particularly harsh, and the Republic within the EU continues to thrive, the middle ground in Northern Ireland may shift to thinking a United Ireland is a better idea than remaining handcuffed to the Sick Man of Europe.

That said, there isn't a lot of middle ground in NI to begin with, and not everyone in the Republic would welcome a United Ireland, especially since the only way this happens if if NI itself gets hammered economically and is thus an even less inviting partner than they are today.

Will we still be thriving when the EU force us to raise our corporation tax to be more in line with France/Germany?
The EU cares very little about Ireland, they are just using us to punish the UK.

CrabRevolution

Help!!!! wrote: »

Unfortunately Varadkar & Coveney are all out for punishing the UK so they will get a pat on the head from their EU masters
We should be pushing for our own unique deal with the UK over the border, trade etc. We have done enough for the EU, taking on majority of banking debt for example to be allowed to do this.

It's amazing how 45 years after joining the EC and 2 years after the brexit vote, people still can't seem to grasp the fact that individual EU members can't negotiate trade deals.

[Deleted User]

Help!!!! wrote: »

Unfortunately Varadkar & Coveney are all out for punishing the UK so they will get a pat on the head from their EU masters
We should be pushing for our own unique deal with the UK over the border, trade etc. We have done enough for the EU, taking on majority of banking debt for example to be allowed to do this.

Theres no easy solutions here.

Do you think a grateful England will give little old Ireland a wonderful deal? They will in their sh*te!

PeadarCo

Help!!!! wrote:

Unfortunately Varadkar & Coveney are all out for punishing the UK so they will get a pat on the head from their EU masters We should be pushing for our own unique deal with the UK over the border, trade etc. We have done enough for the EU, taking on majority of banking debt for example to be allowed to do this.

What you are proposing is that Ireland pull out of the EU. The whole point of a single market and customs union is that all participants abide by an agreed set of criteria/rules. Otherwise the whole thing breaks down. The EU and Ireland are not looking to punish the UK. What they are asking for is that the UK realise the consequences of Brexit and the decisions they have to make. A break up of the EU would be far worse than a hard brexit.

I kind of feel the OP is some milder and / or more cogent version of the below nonsense ultimately:

Help!!!! wrote: »

We could have got a great deal out of the situation because we should have told the EU that the border etc affects only Ireland. We should have had our own unique deal with our oldest trading partner without the interference from the EU.
Unfortunately Varadkar is an EU yes man so will never have the cojones to stand up for whats best for his OWN country

But let's work on this basis:

troyzer wrote: »

I think what the OP means is that regardless of what the outcome is vis a vis hard vs soft. Does Ireland in general benefit from an objectively bad Brexit in terms of job losses, wage stagnation, recession etc. This can happen regardless of whether it's hard or soft and all parties would agree it's a "bad" Brexit.

The softest possible Brexit would be Britain moving to the Norway model, technically out of the EU but with no discernible economic impact. That is off the table because of the political drivers in Britain. And so, we end up with a range of Brexits that become ever more damaging or objectively "bad" up to the no agreement crash out Brexit that could cause economic calamity in the short term. That is what every credible economic prediction says on the matter. There is hand waving about global trade deals and milk and honey from afar but that has failed to be quantified in a realistic timetabled way.

Therefore the simple answer is that Ireland - as a country beside the UK with whom and through whom we do a large volume of trade - will suffer negatively. There will be some offset from business setting up here that would otherwise have pitched their tents within the UK but, in a similar way that Britain is not prepared for a Hard Brexit, we don't have the infrastructure and capacity to take over enough of that business to compensate for trade difficulties, movement of labour difficulties and so on.

But that does not mean that it would be in our long term interest to play our cards differently than we have been doing. Once Britain decided to Brexit, we had to accept some sort of economic impact. Playing the long game, it is not in our interest to try and mitigate that by closer alignment with Britain. Right now they are not the horse to back over the 27 member EU with its associated International trade deals. They have a long way yet to go on this round of political instability and face a very uncertain economic future. Certain Brexit scenarios could involve a transition to a low tax low regulation low workers rights economy that we want no part of.

To those that would counter by arguing that we could have played a major role in advocating for a bespoke British deal, I'd ask them to consider the long term effect that the larger EU nations angling for bespoke deals might have on a small open economy like ours? The expansion and strengthening of the EU is "good" for us; economic nationalism and destabilisation of our largest overall economic partner could only be "bad".

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Theres no easy solutions here.

Do you think a grateful England will give little old Ireland a wonderful deal? They will in their sh*te!

Well wouldn't it have been better to try rather than come out all guns blazing 'punish them'?
I bet we would have gotten a better deal than the one we end up with

Help!!!! wrote: »

Will we still be thriving when the EU force us to raise our corporation tax to be more in line with France/Germany?

That is not within the EUs power.

But yes, if we volunteered to raise our on-paper rate to be the same as France/Germany, we could still thrive.

My concern would be more that some new 2008/PIIGS/banks etc. crisis within the EU hits us. (Of course any such will hit the Brexited UK harder, but it would make us a less attractive partner for NI folks.)

FrancieBrady

I think we will recover from a Hard Brexit (not sure how long it will take) and the silver lining in that will be breaking the dependency on the UK marketplace. The 'if the UK sneezes, we catch the cold' syndrome.

That is a good thing.

A hard border has the potential to bring to an end that which has divided us for 100 years. Accepting that that will be a silver lining in a very dark cloud too.

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I kind of feel the OP is some milder and / or more cogent version of the below nonsense ultimately:

But let's work on this basis:

The softest possible Brexit would be Britain moving to the Norway model, technically out of the EU but with no discernible economic impact. That is off the table because of the political drivers in Britain. And so, we end up with a range of Brexits that become ever more damaging or objectively "bad" up to the no agreement crash out Brexit that could cause economic calamity in the short term. That is what every credible economic prediction says on the matter. There is hand waving about global trade deals and milk and honey from afar but that has failed to be quantified in a realistic timetabled way.

Therefore the simple answer is that Ireland - as a country beside the UK with whom and through whom we do a large volume of trade - will suffer negatively. There will be some offset from business setting up here that would otherwise have pitched their tents within the UK but, in a similar way that Britain is not prepared for a Hard Brexit, we don't have the infrastructure and capacity to take over enough of that business to compensate for trade difficulties, movement of labour difficulties and so on.

But that does not mean that it would be in our long term interest to play our cards differently than we have been doing. Once Britain decided to Brexit, we had to accept some sort of economic impact. Playing the long game, it is not in our interest to try and mitigate that by closer alignment with Britain. Right now they are not the horse to back over the 27 member EU with its associated International trade deals. They have a long way yet to go on this round of political instability and face a very uncertain economic future. Certain Brexit scenarios could involve a transition to a low tax low regulation low workers rights economy that we want no part of.

To those that would counter by arguing that we could have played a major role in advocating for a bespoke British deal, I'd ask them to consider the long term effect that the larger EU nations angling for bespoke deals might have on a small open economy like ours? The expansion and strengthening of the EU is "good" for us; economic nationalism and destabilisation of our largest overall economic partner could only be "bad".

You really think we are going to benefit from companies coming here? What about when the EU force us to raise corporation tax?
We could have angled for a bespoke deal because of the position we are in, the history, location etc. The rest of the EU does not need a bespoke deal.
I for one would be keen to see the break up of the EU in its present form. We signed up for a single market not to be told by those in Brussels how our country should be run

Help!!!! wrote: »

You really think we are going to benefit from companies coming here? What about when the EU force us to raise corporation tax?
We could have angled for a bespoke deal because of the position we are in, the history, location etc. The rest of the EU does not need a bespoke deal.
I for one would be keen to see the break up of the EU in its present form. We signed up for a single market not to be told by those in Brussels how our country should be run

Yes, to some extent. What about all the things that have yet to happen?

The bolded colours (I could say poisons) the rest of your views. Brexit is driven by the same hard edge, it wants chaos no matter the economic cost. Those driving it stand to profit by certain types of Brexit, ideologically or financially where an agenda of low regulations / low rights could be more easily pursued outside of the EU. They have captured a coalition of racists, jingoists, older people and the economically desperate all for whom (for different reasons) "Brexit" can be twisted to be well worth the economic pitfalls.

For the racists, that the majority of the immigration they fear / loathe comes from outside the EU doesn't seem to matter. For the jingoists, that Brexit will significantly reduce Britain's influence and reputation in the world doesn't seem to matter. For the older people looking backward who have secured the end of their life no negative outcome probably does matter. And for the economically desperate, I can't personally blame them gambling on something / anything different after eight years of savage austerity in a failing society.

I for one want no part of any of this mess. Our democracy is as strong and as robust as it has ever been, able to navigate the challenges of Brexit and Repeal despite a minority government. For the social problems we face with regards to housing and homelessness, you'd have some job convincing me that throwing in with the Conservatives and their war on the poor of British society would be a movement in the right direction.

Bit cynical

Economically generally bad. It is predicted that Ireland will experience more of an economic hit than the UK due to brexit, however neither country will experience anything like the financial crisis.

The hit will affect Ireland differently to the UK. We will probably see some gains in the multinational sector whereas the UK will lose in that same area as some multinationals seek to move their headquarters. The hit in Ireland will be felt more in the smaller companies particularly agribusiness. These employ a lot of people in Ireland.

I can understand the EUs reluctance to make exceptions for the UK however it has to be remembered that the UK is merely exercising its right to leave. Leaving the EU and leaving the single market is not breaking any rules.

Where the EU is being unreasonable is insisting that there can be no deal whatsoever that involves any sort of border in the North even though a border of some sort is inevitable. It is simply a consequence of the UK leaving the single market, something it is fully entitled to do. I believe the EU are using this as an excuse not to do a deal with the UK. I don't think Ireland, were it free to do its own deal, would act in this way.

The EU talks a lot of standing behind Ireland, but I think in reality Ireland is standing behind the EU on this. It will backfire on us. No deal will lead to the hardest of hard borders, the thing we are supposedly against. In addition our economy will suffer. The EU can much more afford to take the hard line as the economic impact in most EU countries is negligible, unlike Ireland.

Contrary to what some believe, in a no deal scenario, I don't think the UK will be back looking to reenter the EU a few years later. We will have a hard border with the North (built by the EU) and difficult trading conditions with the UK and that will be a permanent condition.

I think the problem for Varadkar as with all taoiseachs is that he needs to project an image of influence in Europe to the electorate back home. There fore if the EU takes a strong line on something that affects Ireland, Varadkar has to back it or otherwise look weak. We are too small to have any influence in reality. Look at our attempt to get some compensation for the bank bailouts which was quietly dropped after a few years.

Of course if the UK back down and stay in the single market, then the hard line will have paid off. But it is Ireland taking the risk here, not the EU as a whole.

Help!!!! wrote: »

I for one would be keen to see the break up of the EU in its present form.

Economic suicide, even before all the possibilites for actual blood-in-the-streets conflict and then domination by Russia/US.

Bit cynical wrote: »

It is predicted that Ireland will experience more of an economic hit than the UK due to brexit

The Irish Government estimated Brexit would knock 0.5% off our growth, the UK Government estimated 3-6% off theirs.

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Yes, to some extent. What about all the things that have yet to happen?

The bolded colours (I could say poisons) the rest of your views. Brexit is driven by the same hard edge, it wants chaos no matter the economic cost. Those driving it stand to profit by certain types of Brexit, ideologically or financially where an agenda of low regulations / low rights could be more easily pursued outside of the EU. They have captured a coalition of racists, jingoists, older people and the economically desperate all for whom (for different reasons) "Brexit" can be twisted to be well worth the economic pitfalls.

For the racists, that the majority of the immigration they fear / loathe comes from outside the EU doesn't seem to matter. For the jingoists, that Brexit will significantly reduce Britain's influence and reputation in the world doesn't seem to matter. For the older people looking backward who have secured the end of their life no negative outcome probably does matter. And for the economically desperate, I can't personally blame them gambling on something / anything different after eight years of savage austerity in a failing society.

I for one want no part of any of this mess. Our democracy is as strong and as robust as it has ever been, able to navigate the challenges of Brexit and Repeal despite a minority government. For the social problems we face with regards to housing and homelessness, you'd have some job convincing me that throwing in with the Conservatives and their war on the poor of British society would be a movement in the right direction.

There were many of migrant backgrounds who voted. Many who went to live in the 50s/60s etc who went for a better life to see that their better life was turning into the country they left because of the recent immigration.
The conservatives & labour are as bad as each other. The same way as FF/FG/SF are all the same. They care nothing for the people that elected them
Give it a few years & people will start to revolt here the same as what they did in the UK

WinnyThePoo

Help!!!! wrote: »

There were many of migrant backgrounds who voted. Many who went to live in the 50s/60s etc who went for a better life to see that their better life was turning into the country they left because of the recent immigration.
The conservatives & labour are as bad as each other. The same way as FF/FG/SF are all the same. They care nothing for the people that elected them
Give it a few years & people will start to revolt here the same as what they did in the UK

Can't see this happening at all. Ireland is pro Europe for the right reasons.

Bit cynical

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The Irish Government estimated Brexit would knock 0.5% off our growth, the UK Government estimated 3-6% off theirs.

Over what timescales?

WinnyThePoo wrote: »

Can't see this happening at all. Ireland is pro Europe for the right reasons.

Irish people are pro Europe, yes.... pro EU, not so much anymore.
There is a growing number of EU sceptics. We joined for a single market, not an EU army, not to be told that we must raise out corporation tax because its unfair to Germany/France etc

listermint

Bit cynical wrote: »

Over what timescales?

mere seconds to find that information

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42977967

It sounds like you dont believe it.

Why? i dont know as the evidence is there already they are losing currently circa £300 Million per week. ~(and thats now)

listermint

Help!!!! wrote: »

Irish people are pro Europe, yes.... pro EU, not so much anymore.
There is a growing number of EU sceptics. We joined for a single market, not an EU army, not to be told that we must raise out corporation tax because its unfair to Germany/France etc

No there is not, Do you have any remote evidence to back up your claim.

I dont know maybe some official survey , stats or actual details ?

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Economic suicide, even before all the possibilites for actual blood-in-the-streets conflict and then domination by Russia/US.

Well the way things are going with mass immigration in Europe, chances of blood-in-the-streets is very high anyway.
Unless the EU leaders cop themselves on & see the damage they are doing to Europe then the EU will be finished.
Domination by Russia/USA? You are having a laugh aren't you?
You think the only think stopping either from invading Europe is the EU?
Nope wont happen, times have changed for there to be an old USSR although another USSR is around the corner if the EU have their way

Help!!!! wrote: »

Irish people are pro Europe, yes.... pro EU, not so much anymore.
There is a growing number of EU sceptics. We joined for a single market, not an EU army, not to be told that we must raise out corporation tax because its unfair to Germany/France etc

Evidence please.

oscarBravo

Help!!!! wrote: »

Irish people are pro Europe, yes.... pro EU, not so much anymore.

[citation needed]

We joined for a single market...

That's Brexiteer-quality bullcrap. The EU has never just been a single market. The phrase "ever closer union" was in the Treaty of Rome.

...not an EU army...

What EU army?

...not to be told that we must raise out corporation tax because its unfair to Germany/France etc

Corporation tax isn't an EU competence.

Were you planning to say anything that's actually true at any point?