Property Market 2018

15-06-2018 9:00am

The last crash was fueled by external factors but we had local problems too ......... loads of houses for sale, half built, unsold etc and no demand due to job losses and the credit issues.

We might well see a crash soon again but most folk buying now aren't in the building game, aren't buying to let to workers from abroad etc etc.

The beauty of crashes is no one really sees them coming though

Cyrus · 15-06-2018 1:36pm

Rew wrote: »

Here is a nice Dalkey house down 500k:
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/back-to-the-future-home-in-dalkey-with-500k-price-drop-1.3528077

Strange place it’s right in the village reminds me of converted retail units but not sure if it is

People pay big money in Dalkey and Killiney for sea views and grounds not places like that

handlemaster · 15-06-2018 2:23pm

I still think we are a few years out from the top of the market. Prices in my opinion will move beyond 2007 prices then we will see some price reflection.

handlemaster · 15-06-2018 2:23pm

I still think we are a few years out from the top of the market. Prices in my opinion will move beyond 2007 prices then we will see some price reflection.

draiochtanois · 15-06-2018 2:29pm

This post has been deleted.

Rew · 15-06-2018 2:58pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Strange place it’s right in the village reminds me of converted retail units but not sure if it is

People pay big money in Dalkey and Killiney for sea views and grounds not places like that

Yeah i know it well close enough to the village to walk far enough that its quiet. Right at the entrance to the school so manic twice a day. Its a serious spec of a house, the closest thing I can think to it is one of the big units in Enderly which went for about 2.2m.

I've been in the neighbours and they probably have the better view but must be still very nice from this place.

Cyrus · 15-06-2018 3:07pm

I was very disappointed with the finish at enderly when I went to view them expected a lot better

Rew · 15-06-2018 3:44pm

Cyrus wrote: »

I was very disappointed with the finish at enderly when I went to view them expected a lot better

For what they are charging they would want to be amazing, the 3,200 sq feet ones have a basement and lift apparently.

Bob24 · 15-06-2018 4:41pm

handlemaster wrote: »

I still think we are a few years out from the top of the market. Prices in my opinion will move beyond 2007 prices then we will see some price reflection.

I’d agree the potential is there to go beyond 2007 prices, but I’d associate a few caveats to the statement:
- only in areas where there is actual strong demand, i.e. mainly in cities (since this time the upwards pressure on prices is more shortage driven than credit driven compared to 2007)
- while the domestic situation is paving the way for those new highs, the international (economic) situation also needs to support the rise so external factors could stop the process at any time

Villa05 · 15-06-2018 4:51pm

Kyra CoolS Fingernail wrote:

I'm still not buying that we are going to have a crash. Price inflation is driven by lack of supply and credit is largely in check. Barring a sudden external shock (which granted is looking more likely by the day) I don't see any driver to decrease prices.

Restricting supply causes asset price bubbles and asset price bubbles were occurring long before banks were lending on crazy terms.
The banks are still in very poor shape and hugely exposed to property. A crash would significantly damage them

Ray Palmer wrote:

It really depends on quantity of sales in the end. Anybody any idea of how many sales have been going on over the last while. A lot of discussion about the crash and negative equity referred to people buying at the peak. As far as I remember the sales at the peak prices were a lot smaller than people spoke about. They certainly made it sound like everyone bought at the peak and had trouble paying loans back.

The 110% mortgages between 2005/2007 brought forward demand and maximised the damage at the peak of the market. Much of that damage is still on the banks books through mortgage arrears

Ray Palmer · 15-06-2018 5:23pm

Villa05 wrote: »

The 110% mortgages between 2005/2007 brought forward demand and maximised the damage at the peak of the market. Much of that damage is still on the banks books through mortgage arrears

It may very well have but it is about quantities not possibilities. Not ever mortgage was for 110% and I know the people getting those were on very stable incomes. Never knew a person who got such a mortgage but knew many who were not able to get them.
The damage was never the size of the mortgage but people not paying them back. Not all of that was due to inability to pay but a choice. The figures for distressed mortgages belonging to the banks is dropping as they sell them off. Whether you like it or not that is what is happening. From the banks point of view the trackers are a bigger problem

UsBus · 15-06-2018 5:40pm

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/number-of-houses-available-for-sale-in-dublin-has-risen-by-32-849159.html

This is a bit of a jump in supply.. it mentions it is confined to Dublin but we all know what happens in Dublin is replicated around the country further down the track.

Are some people deciding to sell up while the going is good..??

B00MSTICK · 15-06-2018 5:58pm

UsBus wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/number-of-houses-available-for-sale-in-dublin-has-risen-by-32-849159.html

This is a bit of a jump in supply.. it mentions it is confined to Dublin but we all know what happens in Dublin is replicated around the country further down the track.

Are some people deciding to sell up while the going is good..??

Probably a mixture of people wanting to sell while the going is good, sell now that they are out of negative equity or sell because of the regulation imposed on the smalltime/private/accidental landlord

Cyrus · 15-06-2018 6:07pm

B00MSTICK wrote: »

Probably a mixture of people wanting to sell while the going is good, sell now that they are out of negative equity or sell because of the regulation imposed on the smalltime/private/accidental landlord

Or new apartment complex’s tempting down sizers

I doubt anyone is selling to rent anyway

Marius34 · 15-06-2018 6:23pm

UsBus wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/number-of-houses-available-for-sale-in-dublin-has-risen-by-32-849159.html

This is a bit of a jump in supply.. it mentions it is confined to Dublin but we all know what happens in Dublin is replicated around the country further down the track.

Are some people deciding to sell up while the going is good..??

Growing supplies:
1) Growing number of properties are out of the negative equity.
2) Growing number of new builds around Dublin

Stable demands:
3) Stable number of mortgage approvals.

Basically new builds takes a market share from the secondary market sales. While there are no growth in real demands (people with approved mortgage), mainly due to affordability.

M.Cribben · 15-06-2018 7:17pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Or new apartment complex’s tempting down sizers

I doubt anyone is selling to rent anyway

Exactly, people selling (unless they are emigrating) have to buy somewhere else. Renting is simply not an option these days. As already said it's most likely down to increased completions in Dublin and prices reaching a level where people in negative equity can finally trade up/down.

handlemaster · 16-06-2018 8:46am

UsBus wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/number-of-houses-available-for-sale-in-dublin-has-risen-by-32-849159.html

This is a bit of a jump in supply.. it mentions it is confined to Dublin but we all know what happens in Dublin is replicated around the country further down the track.

Are some people deciding to sell up while the going is good..??

Id say landlords would be a large part. Just a guess going by all the interference in the letting business . We will reach an even worst housing situation if this is true

KevinCavan · 16-06-2018 9:43am

handlemaster wrote: »

Id say landlords would be a large part. Just a guess going by all the interference in the letting business . We will reach an even worst housing situation if this is true

I don’t think landlords would get out of rental market at the moment. Rents have never been higher and therefore landlords’ profits have never been as high as this before.

Bob24 · 16-06-2018 10:08am

KevinCavan wrote: »

I don’t think landlords would get out of rental market at the moment. Rents have never been higher and therefore landlords’ profits have never been as high as this before.

Individual landlords have quite a bit more additional costs and restrictions compared to the previous rent peak, so I am not sure their profits are so much higher than they would have been in 2007 (REITs are different).

But yes having said that with current rent level close to 50% above the previous peak and knowing that any half decent property is pretty much garanteed to be rented at all times, I’d agree to say the argument saying landlords are leaving the market en masse due to poor returns is greatly exaggerated.

mortimer33 · 16-06-2018 10:37am

Bob24 wrote: »

Individual landlords have quite a bit more additional costs and restrictions compared to the previous rent peak, so I am not sure their profits are so much higher than they would have been in 2007 (REITs are different).

But yes having said that with current rent level close to 50% above the previous peak and knowing that any half decent property is pretty much garanteed to be rented at all times, I’d agree to say the argument saying landlords are leaving the market en masse due to poor returns is greatly exaggerated.

Two indicators of landlords selling up are increasing rents and significant year on year drops in rental properties on daft.. the drops can't be explained by increasing tenanny durations.

16-06-2018 10:42am

KevinCavan wrote: »

I don’t think landlords would get out of rental market at the moment. Rents have never been higher and therefore landlords’ profits have never been as high as this before.

There are (were) loads of genuine accidental landlords. The last 12/18 months might have been the first opportunity for them to sell their rental property and walk away with a few quid in the pocket. Not a bad time to do so.
€10k extra/annum in rent over previous years only manifests itself as €100/week in the pocket. Not worth the pain in the arse for many if they were always planning on getting out when they could

Villa05 · 16-06-2018 11:11am

mortimer33 wrote:

Two indicators of landlords selling up are increasing rents and significant year on year drops in rental properties on daft.. the drops can't be explained by increasing tenanny durations.

Both these indicators point to a sharp rise in the number of people/households renting as buying is out reach

handlemaster · 16-06-2018 11:48am

KevinCavan wrote: »

handlemaster wrote: »

Id say landlords would be a large part. Just a guess going by all the interference in the letting business . We will reach an even worst housing situation if this is true

I don’t think landlords would get out of rental market at the moment. Rents have never been higher and therefore landlords’ profits have never been as high as this before.

You should buy and rent seen as its so good. Lol

Sarn · 16-06-2018 11:53am

There are also LLs who are in RPZs with rents well below current market prices and no way to increase them without substantial refurbishment. That might encourage some to sell. Many of the houses we viewed for sale were former rentals.

Bubbaclaus · 16-06-2018 12:16pm

Planning permissions approved for 8,400 dwellings in Q1 2018, an 80% increase on Q1 2017. If that keeps up we could see sharp increases in completions (assuming the resources are there to actually build them).

Zenify · 16-06-2018 1:07pm

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Planning permissions approved for 8,400 dwellings in Q1 2018, an 80% increase on Q1 2017. If that keeps up we could see sharp increases in completions (assuming the resources are there to actually build them).

Is there an article on it or did you get this straight from the source?

Bubbaclaus · 16-06-2018 1:09pm

Zenify wrote: »

Is there an article on it or did you get this straight from the source?

CSO released the data during the week. You should find a link to it from the recent releases on their homepage.

EvolvedApe · 16-06-2018 7:57pm

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Planning permissions approved for 8,400 dwellings in Q1 2018, an 80% increase on Q1 2017. If that keeps up we could see sharp increases in completions (assuming the resources are there to actually build them).

Lets hope prices quickly fall as people realize how overpriced everything is.

The_Conductor · 16-06-2018 8:06pm

EvolvedApe wrote: »

Lets hope prices quickly fall as people realize how overpriced everything is.

Its a bit of a double edged sword- do we really want prices to fall substantially- when Irish borrowers are so exposed to ECB base rates (with the exception of those who manage to access the government scheme). We have tapered ECB QE and now have a firm date for the end of ECB QE (December 2018) and a suggested date to begin 'normalisation' of interest rates (subject to external factors) of September 2019.

A lot of Irish borrowers are going to be hurting- very soon- lob another batch of negative equity into the mix- and it might actually turn incendiary this time round.............

We already have the Dublin market showing that gravity is beginning to prevail- this is not evident nationally, yet, but the rates of increase in some regional areas- are simply staggering.

If I had any intention of getting out of here in the next 10 years- I'd be planning on doing it in the next 18 months.............

EvolvedApe · 16-06-2018 8:11pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its a bit of a double edged sword- do we really want prices to fall substantially- when Irish borrowers are so exposed to ECB base rates (with the exception of those who manage to access the government scheme). We have tapered ECB QE and now have a firm date for the end of ECB QE (December 2018) and a suggested date to begin 'normalisation' of interest rates (subject to external factors) of September 2019.

A lot of Irish borrowers are going to be hurting- very soon- lob another batch of negative equity into the mix- and it might actually turn incendiary this time round.............

We already have the Dublin market showing that gravity is beginning to prevail- this is not evident nationally, yet, but the rates of increase in some regional areas- are simply staggering.

If I had any intention of getting out of here in the next 10 years- I'd be planning on doing it in the next 18 months.............

The wealthy are always a step ahead, they will see a collapse coming and will have already taken action before we even get a real sight of it.

Unfortunately it will always be the 90 percent of people who pick up the bill and feel the pain.

Property Market 2018

Comments