Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

del roy · 13-05-2018 11:03am

3.15 the fresh prince 7/4 5pts win max bet
4.45 wooster 2pts e/w 14/1
5.25 invisible clouds 2pts win 5/1

del roy · 13-05-2018 11:12am

Todays bets

3.15 the fresh prince 7/4 5pts win max bet
4.45 wooster 2pts e/w 14/1
5.25 invisible clouds 2pts win 5/1

del roy · 13-05-2018 3:53pm

3.15 the fresh prince 7/4 5pts win max bet 1st and a drift out to 2/1 profit 10pts

del roy · 13-05-2018 4:39pm

A little bit of money coming for Wooster 16/1>>>>>10/1

bookman2 · 13-05-2018 4:51pm

del roy wrote: »

A little bit of money coming for Wooster 16/1>>>>>10/1

bad ride probably wouldn't have won but should have finished closer.

del roy · 13-05-2018 4:52pm

bookman2 wrote: »

bad ride probably wouldn't have won but should have finished closer.

should have been placed at least. :mad:

bookman2 · 13-05-2018 4:56pm

he went for a gap that looked to me like it wasn't there ---anyway not a whole lot can be done about it now!

del roy · 13-05-2018 4:59pm

bookman2 wrote: »

he went for a gap that looked to me like it wasn't there ---anyway not a whole lot can be done about it now!

yeap just sick not collecting the place at least.

Jerry you were bang on, they were all off the bridal and he was still tanking along, a very well handicapped horse indeed.

Great write up.

superfurry1 · 13-05-2018 5:21pm

The way he ran on at the end definitely a jockey mistake very surprised at Hayes too well that horse will never be that price again 5 or 6 if lucky next time

Cherry_Cola · 13-05-2018 5:31pm

Of course it would be my luck that I backed the two that lost :pac:

del roy · 13-05-2018 5:47pm

3.15 the fresh prince 7/4 5pts win max bet 1st
4.45 wooster 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl
5.25 invisible clouds 2pts win 5/1 unpl

4pts profit picked up on the day.

37 bets
4 winners
+72.5pts

4.45 wooster 2pts e/w 14/1 5th beaten 2L

Mid-division, disputed 5th at halfway, travelling well in 4th before straight, not clear run still travelling well far side 1 1/2f out, driven well inside final furlong and no impression on leaders near finish, unlucky (op 9/1)

del roy · 13-05-2018 5:56pm

Monday ,Windsor
8.20 Crystal Casque 2pts e/w 10/1

any newbies following and are still live with bet365, they are going 14/1.

Thats it until Wednesday at York.

Jerry

del roy · 13-05-2018 7:39pm

Monday. Windsor.
8.20 Crystal Casque 2pts e/w 10/1

First thing to discuss is the Jockey David Probert. I really have a lot of time for this jockey. He is attached to Andrew Balding’s yard, doesn’t drink or smoke, is very focussed on his racing and I can’t understand why he is not riding five horses everyday there is racing.
Crystal Casque was 4th to Kindergarden Cop at Kempton last month beaten 3 and 1/4L over 7f. If you stop the video of the race a furlong out you will plainly see Kindergarden cop and Crystal casque were nearly side by side. David Probert was on Kindergarden cop and Oisin Murphy was on Crystal Casque. In a split second both jockeys had to make a decision what to do going forward, in a instant Probert pulled his mount to the outside and made a storming run down the outside to win the race.
Murphy on the other hand decided to come thru the pack, Crystal had nowhere to go really but to drift to the slower far side of the track and finished 4th. Maybe he wasn’t off I don’t know but she fairly quickened up for a horse running on the slower side of the track that day.

As you know in my view I think they usually in some races head for home to early and as I said on here before they look like they home in slow motion style in the 30 yards. This is a step up to another furlong for Crystal and I think it will suit.
As I said she may not have been off in that Kindergarden race as she was coming back from a three month lay off but she was only 6/1 so short enough. Here are the comments for the race below.

A modest 3yo handicap. They went a decent gallop and the winner did it nicely. Crystal Casque, returning from a five-month break, failed to build on her close C&D second here in November from this 3lb higher mark, but is entitled to benefit from the run.

I personally think if she comes on for the race and with the step up in distance plus if the ground stays dry at Windsor she will run very well.

Her sire is HELMET was twice a mile winner so she should have no trouble getting it.

Trainer form is just ok, 3 winners from 22 and an RTF of 41% for the yard. He has had twelve 3 yr old runners and three have won. 17%. Over the last twelve months trainer is 3/27 winners with five places and a p/l of -16.50

Over the last twelve months jockey David Probert is 8/50 winners with two places and a p/l of +40.02.

del roy · 14-05-2018 12:10pm

Epsom Derby
Delano Roosevelt 2pts e/w 20/1

I didn’t really have a view on the Epsom derby I until looked the Derrinstown trial at Leopardstown yesterday. The only horse I would back from that race is Delano Roosevelt.
He was drawn 7 of 8 and fell out of the stalls, stuck on the outside he hadn’t much cover, he did come off the bridle for a split second and Lordan quickly got him on the bit again, travelling well. He came widest of all and could Lordan have been any easier on him, I hardly think so. McDonagh hit the winner six times, quite hardy smacks I thought nothing like the two taps Delano received from Lordan. I don’t mind how tenderly ridden he was cos I didn’t back him.
How anyone can pick any horse out of that race to beat him over an extra 2f has me puzzled.
Onto Delano Roosevelt himself. Career started of in a 1m maiden at Leopardstown, a maiden O’Brien had won 6 of the last nine running’s with, all were very well backed favs. Today was to be no different COAT OF ARMS was backed into 4/6 to to make it 7 from 10 for Aiden but he was chinned on the line and won by a hd at a juicy price of 14/1. The comments for the race are below
Held up towards rear, last at halfway, headway going well into 4th over 1f out, went 2nd under hands and heels well inside final furlong and kept on closing stages to lead final strides, not extended (op 12/1)
COAT OF ARMS was beaten a shd in his next race by ROSTROPOVICH who won the Chester Dee stakes by 3 and 1/2L last week.

Two months later Delano Roosevelt turned up for the Champion Juvenile Stakes a race were O’ Brien had taken five from the last six runnings. He had the first three home however not in the order the odds suggested Delano finished 3rd beaten 3 and 1/4L. The winner Nelson made the running in the Derrinstown and was firmly put in his place by Delano, the second Kew Gardens failed in the Lingfield Derby trial when a well backed 8/11f. Though to be fair I would write this fellow of just yet.

So to be fair O’ Brien and the coolmore gang seem to be running out of runners to join SAXON WARRIOR in the big race.

Step forward DELANO ROOSEVELT, here are the comments for the race Delano finished 3rd in.
Held up, 9th at halfway, progress and switched right approaching final furlong in 7th, stayed on strongly into 3rd close home, nearest finish (op 13/8)

Here is an analysis of the first three home,
A good performance from the winner, looking like a proper horse now since front-running tactics have been used.
NELSON turned around the Curragh form with Riyazan quite comprehensively. Making all at a reasonable clip, Donnacha O'Brien quickened it up entering the straight, his mount galloped clear and none of his rivals were able to make any impression and indeed he was going further clear until well inside the last. His experience was important, the change in tactics have transformed him. Whether he will be a miler or a middle distance horse for next year will be interesting to see, but if a horse that can sustain an end to end gallop like this over a mile there would not be any real reason to step him up in trip in the short term at least.

Kew Gardens was held up off the pace and never managed to get into it after coming off the bridle before the straight. He ran on best of the rest and is probably more of a middle distance prospect for next year as he gains experience.

Delano Roosevelt didn't look to have too much of a clue when he managed to win here first time. Settled off the pace, he wasn't travelling before the straight and again he was green when it counted. He ran on well again and is another that looks certain to improve again, and considerably in all likelihood.

Onto Delano Roosevelts third race, a 1m race at Naas in the soft which I would have thought Delano would have hated being out of Galileo. He was beaten fair and square by SAXON WARRIOR, the distance was 2 and 1/2L.
Above are the facts and leaving what SAXAN WARRIOR did in the English 2000 guineas, the Derby price for Delano Roosevelt is basically based on the above facts.

I think 20/1 is a huge price for this horse, looking at the above three races it seems to me Delano Roosevelt was green in his first two races and was always going to make a better 3yr old. I think the extra two furlongs will be the making of this horse. I now can’t wait for the race as SAXON WARRIOR is the one to beat, I can see this fellow storming up the Epsom straight giving SAXON a fright and a fight.

clio_16v · 14-05-2018 1:59pm

del roy wrote: »

Monday. Windsor.
8.20 Crystal Casque 2pts e/w 10/1

First thing to discuss is the Jockey David Probert. I really have a lot of time for this jockey. He is attached to Andrew Balding’s yard, doesn’t drink or smoke, is very focussed on his racing and I can’t understand why he is not riding five horses everyday there is racing.
Crystal Casque was 4th to Kindergarden Cop at Kempton last month beaten 3 and 1/4L over 7f. If you stop the video of the race a furlong out you will plainly see Kindergarden cop and Crystal casque were nearly side by side. David Probert was on Kindergarden cop and Oisin Murphy was on Crystal Casque. In a split second both jockeys had to make a decision what to do going forward, in a instant Probert pulled his mount to the outside and made a storming run down the outside to win the race.
Murphy on the other hand decided to come thru the pack, Crystal had nowhere to go really but to drift to the slower far side of the track and finished 4th. Maybe he wasn’t off I don’t know but she fairly quickened up for a horse running on the slower side of the track that day.

As you know in my view I think they usually in some races head for home to early and as I said on here before they look like they home in slow motion style in the 30 yards. This is a step up to another furlong for Crystal and I think it will suit.
As I said she may not have been off in that Kindergarden race as she was coming back from a three month lay off but she was only 6/1 so short enough. Here are the comments for the race below.

A modest 3yo handicap. They went a decent gallop and the winner did it nicely. Crystal Casque, returning from a five-month break, failed to build on her close C&D second here in November from this 3lb higher mark, but is entitled to benefit from the run.

I personally think if she comes on for the race and with the step up in distance plus if the ground stays dry at Windsor she will run very well.

Her sire is HELMET was twice a mile winner so she should have no trouble getting it.

Trainer form is just ok, 3 winners from 22 and an RTF of 41% for the yard. He has had twelve 3 yr old runners and three have won. 17%. Over the last twelve months trainer is 3/27 winners with five places and a p/l of -16.50

Over the last twelve months jockey David Probert is 8/50 winners with two places and a p/l of +40.02.

20s now. 4 places with PP

del roy · 14-05-2018 2:18pm

clio_16v wrote: »

20s now. 4 places with PP

Clio
Racing post said it rained last night at course, I wonder if Jerry knew the state of the ground would it be a bet.

Too late for me, I am already on.

Jayd0g · 14-05-2018 2:22pm

del roy wrote: »

Clio
Racing post said it rained last night at course, I wonder if Jerry knew the state of the ground would it be a bet.

Too late for me, I am already on.

Probably not,he's got a line in the write up about the ground staying dry at Windsor.

Oh well, I'm also already on.

del roy · 14-05-2018 3:37pm

Jayd0g wrote: »

Probably not,he's got a line in the write up about the ground staying dry at Windsor.

Oh well, I'm also already on.

Jay, I think this could be a big problem this summer giving out the bets the night before. I know he thinks the value is greater the night before but an hour of heavy rain the night before or the morning of the race will scupper any value we do get.

Jayd0g · 14-05-2018 3:54pm

del roy wrote: »

Jay, I think this could be a big problem this summer giving out the bets the night before. I know he thinks the value is greater the night before but an hour of heavy rain the night before or the morning of the race will scupper any value we do get.

Good point Del. Its a trade off, taking a chance that a price moves in from 20/1 to 16/1 overnight while we wait to see if it rains.

Very Irish problem!

del roy · 14-05-2018 5:26pm

Looks like powers and betfair made a huge rick on that one but I rang Jerry I will not count that bet.

Some news on Wild Illusion into 7/1 with our local bookmakers Powers and Boylesports.

del roy · 14-05-2018 7:00pm

Beverley
4.40 AD LIBITUM 1PT E/W 33/1

del roy · 15-05-2018 12:27pm

del roy wrote: »

Beverley
4.40 AD LIBITUM 1PT E/W 33/1

12/1 :eek: with Skybet, 16s with all others.

Regarding last nights bet

Monday. Windsor.
8.20 Crystal Casque 2pts e/w 10/1

I thought he ran well considering he ran all over the course, only beaten 5 lenghts.

38 bets
4 winners
+68.5pts

del roy · 15-05-2018 5:33pm

del roy wrote: »

Beverley
4.40 AD LIBITUM 1PT E/W 33/1

5th 14/1 :rolleyes:

39 bets
4 winners
+66.5pts

del roy · 15-05-2018 8:52pm

5.25 olive mabel 2pts e/w 16/1

del roy · 16-05-2018 11:29am

Wednesday, York.
4.35 Lord Vetinari 2pts e/w 28/1 Officially rated 77

Lord Vetinari started off the 2017 season in a class 2 Ascot maiden where he finished sixth beaten 5 and 1/4L. The winner of this maiden finished the year off running in a group 3 where he finished 3rd 2/1f beaten 1 and 1/2L behind a rated 108 winner and a rated 106 second place. The winner of this Group 3 Nebo ran in the 2018 2000g.
Next race he ran at the trainers local track Salisbury where he went off 3/1 in this 9 runner maiden. He missed the break, finished fifth, and below are the comments
Dwelt and awkward start, mostly in last trio, ridden soon after halfway, kept on from over 1f out, nearest finish (op 11/4 tchd 5/2). btn 2 ¼ L
The first and second in the Salisbury maiden didn’t actually perform miracles for the form of this maiden as the winner is now only rated 84 and the second won next time out, the fourth won finished fifth next time out then won his next, the sixth horse finished seventh next time out then won his next two races.

Put away for the 2018 season. Fast forward to 6th April 2018 at Chelsford.
Below is what Mr Balding had to say about the horse before he ran,
Lord Vetinari is a nice horse, he's improved quite a bit from last year and he should be very competitive. I'm hopeful he'll run very well tonight.
He did run well he finished second to a well backed 13/8 f trained by W.Haggas and ridden by James Doyle. When the money comes for this pair in particular they very rarely leave it behind. The winner went up one class and was a drifting fav 13/8>>>>2/1 and was a beaten fifth. The third horse won his next two races.
Next race, a novice stakes at Lingfield were he ran fourth to a 3/10f hotpot belong to Goosden beaten 4 ¼ L. No excuses if I had been following him I think I would have expected him to finish closer than that.

So on to York tomorrow, Lord Vetinari is rated 77 which gets him in to this race carrying 8st 3LB. I am hoping he sits out the back and Dwyer produces him late on in the races as the Salisbury run gives me a little bit of hope this straight will suit this horse.
Can I just say there is one BIG/HUGE negative, Balding is 1/50 at York but he is 28/1 and I think the place side of the bet is generous.

Jerry, note to self, avoid A.BALDING AT YORK.

del roy · 16-05-2018 6:20pm

loss of 8pts today.

Don't panic................yet.

41 bets
4 winners
+58.5pts

del roy · 16-05-2018 10:24pm

5.35 waiting for richie 2pts e/w 10/1

del roy · 17-05-2018 11:02am

3.15 KING LUD 5pts win max bet 7/2

del roy · 17-05-2018 5:50pm

del roy wrote: »

5.35 waiting for richie 2pts e/w 10/1

1st rule 4 10c

Jayd0g · 17-05-2018 5:55pm

del roy wrote: »

1st rule 4 10c

Nice

Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

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