Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

del roy

4.40 casemates square 9/1 2pts e/w

7.10 straits of magellan 33/1 1pt e/w again c/o powers.

Jayd0g

del roy wrote: »

4.40 casemates square 9/1 2pts e/w

c/o powers

In to 17/2 with powers now.

Chancer3001

great thread cheers

david9082

Straits of Magellan non runner

del roy

Saturday. Epsom Dash.

3.45 Edward lewis 2pts e/w 12/1


This is an ANTEPOST bet if it does not run you lose your money.

del roy

Today
2.20 camakasi 3pts win 5/1

Jayd0g

del roy wrote: »

Today
2.20 camakasi 3pts win 5/1

9/2 with powers

Jayd0g

Jayd0g wrote: »

9/2 with powers

Highlights Del and Jerry's previous advice to shop around!

del roy

Yes Jay
there are too many lads watching the thread and just going to Powers or boyles but the more popular this thread gets the quicker them books will shorten our horses so lads on here may well end up having to open other accounts.

The best one being bet365. if you can open with them do so.

kiers47

Worth adding and I'm not sure where ye stand on this. But there is little point following a tipster if you are not taking the price advised.

Hugh Taylor turns a massive profit year on year but I would guess you would be losing money if betting sp.

Hugh puts a selection up most days. His P/L for a year I am thinking is somewhere in the 200-300 range. So if you followed him every day and took a point or 2 less than advised on every selection you would likely lose money.
Fine margins and all that.

*Actually am way off on this and it would be related to the number of points invested to winners. Either way I think it's useful when tipsters give a price range rather than just 1 price. Not that I follow any myself but I like seeing something like 5/1+ as in 5/1 should be the min price you should take and anything after that is a plus.

Anyway not a complaint or anything about what's going on here. Clearly on a roll. Just some stuff I thought was interesting.

longshotvalue

kiers47 wrote: »

Worth adding and I'm not sure where ye stand on this. But there is little point following a tipster if you are not taking the price advised.

Hugh Taylor turns a massive profit year on year but I would guess you would be losing money if betting sp.

Hugh puts a selection up most days. His P/L for a year I am thinking is somewhere in the 200-300 range. So if you followed him every day and took 1 point less than advised on every selection you would likely lose money.
Fine margins and all that.

True, id normally suggest you should put up a price along with at least 3 decent bookies that have the price at the time. I think that horse above was actually a bigger price than 5/1 when it went up with some bookies.

xlogo

For Hugh Taylor..
You would rarely get the price advised as it tends to drop quickly once he puts his selection up.

del roy

Magical will have to pass a late fitness test before being given the green light to run in the Investec Oaks after suffering a setback.

Aidan O'Brien's filly is the general second favourite for the Epsom Classic on Friday, behind the Charlie Appleby-trained Wild Illusion, but her participation could now be in doubt.

O'Brien said: "She just gave herself a little bit of a tip on the inside of her joint this morning. There was a little bit of filling in it this morning but it scanned perfect and we're going to make a decision about her in the morning. The filling has to be gone out of it in the morning and we're cooling it at the moment. Hopefully it will be gone and if it is there won't be a problem."

Magical, who won the Group Two Debutante Stakes as a two-year-old, has run just once so far this season, finishing fourth in a Group Three in France last month.

She is now a 6/1 chance, non-runner/no bet, with Sky Bet.

Surely we could not be that lucky or could we.

del roy

4.40 casemates square 9/1 2pts e/w non runner

7.10 straits of magellan 33/1 1pt e/w

2.20 camakasi 3pts win 5/1 4th

loss of 3 pts for today

59 bets
7 winners
+107.5pts

del roy

kiers47 wrote: »

Worth adding and I'm not sure where ye stand on this. But there is little point following a tipster if you are not taking the price advised.

Hugh Taylor turns a massive profit year on year but I would guess you would be losing money if betting sp.

Hugh puts a selection up most days. His P/L for a year I am thinking is somewhere in the 200-300 range. So if you followed him every day and took a point or 2 less than advised on every selection you would likely lose money.
Fine margins and all that.

*Actually am way off on this and it would be related to the number of points invested to winners. Either way I think it's useful when tipsters give a price range rather than just 1 price. Not that I follow any myself but I like seeing something like 5/1+ as in 5/1 should be the min price you should take and anything after that is a plus.

Anyway not a complaint or anything about what's going on here. Clearly on a roll. Just some stuff I thought was interesting.

Never really thought about it much I just put up the price I get hence that is why sometimes there are bigger prices available, a few years ago when Jerry first did this I opened accounts with bookmakers in my name but they closed them.


Stan james
Bet365
Betvictor
William hill
Betfair matchbook


all closed to me, can't even get .50c e/w.

del roy

An update on the Derby

As of 7pm today and after 16mm of rain the ground is now soft at Epsom and very unsettled weather forecast from now till Saturday.


So far so good! Saxon Warrior, brilliant winner of the 2,000 Guineas, odds-on for Saturday's Investec Derby and a potential Triple Crown hero, is pleasing everyone, according to Aidan O'Brien, who could field a six-strong team for the Epsom Classic.

Rostropovich, a 50-1 shot who makes up O'Brien's seven remaining Epsom entries, is set to bypass the Derby in favour of the French equivalent at Chantilly 24 hours later.

Saxon Warrior will be partnered by Ryan Moore for the first time since they teamed up to make history in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last October, when O'Brien broke Bobby Frankel's Group 1 world record.

The last horse to complete the 2,000 Guineas-Derby double was Ballydoyle's Camelot – also a Racing Post Trophy winner – who justified 8-13 favouritism at Epsom in 2012. Saxon Warrior is threatening to start even shorter, with ****, Ladbrokes and William Hill currently going 4-6.

"Ryan will be back on Saxon Warrior on Saturday and everything is fine with the horse. He's pleasing everyone with what he's doing and everyone seems very happy," O'Brien said on Tuesday afternoon.

He added: "Donnacha [O'Brien, the trainer's son] rides him in all his work and he's been very happy with everything over the last few weeks since the Guineas. It was his first run of the year at Newmarket, so you'd expect him to come on from that, but we'll have to see what happens on Saturday.

"I would not like to compare him to any of our other horses at this stage. We all know he was a very good two-year-old and he was a good winner of the Guineas on his first start at three, so hopefully he can continue to progress in the way he is doing."

O'Brien is currently responsible for half the 14 left in the Derby, but Rostropovich will wait for the Prix du Jockey Club on Sunday and his final team selection will not be made until Thursday due to the mixed weather forecast

"With the way the weather is, things are a bit up in the air and much will depend on what way the ground is. That delays us a little," O'Brien said.

"Delano Roosevelt handles an ease in the ground, so he will not mind any rain that falls. Similar comments apply to Nelson, who handled heavy ground at Leopardstown to win earlier in the season. Nelson is not a definite but a possible at this stage.

"Kew Gardens lost a shoe at Lingfield and we're thinking of letting him take his chance. The Pentagon would prefer nice ground, so we will see what way the weather is for him. He's gradually getting there and coming forward nicely. We're going to wait for France with Rostropovich."


I would not want much more rain any later than Thursday as the track drys out quickly and the weather forecast for Friday and Saturday is to be very warm.

On the plus side it should really suit our filly Wild Illusion.

del roy

8.20 lord topper 2pts e/w 10/1 c/o powers

del roy

Surely we could not be that lucky or could we.

OH YES WE CAN



UPDATE ON THE OAKS BET

Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

THE 2ND FAV AND 3RD FAV HAVE BEEN WITHDRAWN THIS MORNING

WILD ILLUSION NOW CLEAR 5/2 FAV WITH ALL BOOKS


Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

I think this is a seriously good filly. Her 3yr old form reads 131. I am really interested in colts and filly’s who win over the mile distance at the young edge of two.
Her 2yr old form reads 131. She started her career at Yarmouth of all places where she made all and duly won. Comments of race were
Made all, ridden over 2f out, driven over 1f out, going best after and stayed on well, comfortably (op 5/2). The form of the race has not worked out great with only the second horse winning so far.

On to Chantilly for the Prix d'Aumale (Group 3) (2yo Fillies) (Turf) 5 runners. Wild illusion went off 7/2. They decided to give her some cover in the small field of five runners. Two things may have happened that day
1. She hated being held up.
2. She just did not run her race that day for whatever reason.
She was only beaten 1L 3/4L.
They must have went home and realised they did the wrong thing by holding her up. Three weeks later they supplemented her for the Total Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) (2yo Fillies) (Turf).
Here’s what the post say
However, Appleby has seen an improvement in her form at home and after a meeting with Sheikh Mohammed the call was made to roll the dice and supplement the filly.
Under a positive James Doyle ride, that gamble paid off spectacularly, as the daughter of Dubawi led early in the home straight before staying on stoutly for a 25-1 success over the previously unbeaten Polydream.
“She came forward a lot for her last run and we were delighted with her at home," said Appleby. "I spoke to his highness in depth about her and he said, 'Go for it, if you're happy with the horse'."

Fast forward to the races James Doyle takes the lead as soon as the stalls open, makes all and wins by 1L and ¾ beating France’s big hope, the unbeaten Polydream.

Make no mistake to do what she did at 2yrs old to some very well bred horses over a mile when her pedigree is packed with stamina gives her a big shout in this year’s oaks. Also her win was a second faster than the Oaks fav Happily who is 6/1. Wild Illusion has a dosage index of 0.50 which is excellent.

I am not mad on her for the 1000 Guineas as her stamina at 2yrs of age helped her beat the well bred milers but it will be much tougher as a 3yr old
They say the guineas is the best trial for the Derby and Oaks so let’s see if she tries to make all the running and more importantly will she be passed.

This is an ante post bet if the horse does not run we lose our money.

Jerry

I thought I would let the dust settle for a while before I had a look back at the 1000 guineas. Wild Illusion finished 4th beaten 2 and 3/4L. Some observations from the race,

She was first off the bridle, 2f out she was literally being scrubbed along with Jame Doyle really getting down in the saddle, the winner passed her as if was trotting down to the start.
So her record is, raced four times, won twice, lost twice.
Made the running in the two races she won, didn't make it in the two she lost.
I think James Doyle when he got a good break from the stalls and was in the lead must have sensed/known she was not fit enough to go the speed he wanted to go, for that mile race. He let the horse that eventually finished 2nd pass his filly as if to say, I am not going any faster, first time out when the Oaks is our target.

I am quite happy with the race she ran.

One filly I was impressed with was Forever Together finished full of running in what looked to me a slowly run trial at Chester on Thursday. They ran each furlong at 13.10 second, Young Rascals race was a furlong further and they ran the furlong in that race at 12.99.
Forever Together got hampered when she try to make her run, lost momentum but got going again very quickly, that's a hard thing to do in a slow run race and if the oaks is run too quick Forever Together will benefit the most.
I see two firms going 12/1 on WILD ILLUSION. That seems fair however I expect her to come on a bundle for the guineas run and think she will go off at the 7/1 mark.

James Doyle said after the race,

I'm pretty pleased with Wild Illusion. She coped with the ground pretty well and is crying out for a bit more distance.

Roll on Epsom.


Jerry

ffs Jerry
ya know nothin about horse racing,

I think she will go off at the 7/1 mark

Ya Clown Ya.

del roy

Todays bets

8.20 lord topper 2pts e/w 10/1 c/o powers


4.00 almunter 11/4 3pts win

info stuff

kiers47

del roy wrote: »

Never really thought about it much I just put up the price I get hence that is why sometimes there are bigger prices available, a few years ago when Jerry first did this I opened accounts with bookmakers in my name but they closed them.


Stan james
Bet365
Betvictor
William hill
Betfair matchbook


all closed to me, can't even get .50c e/w.

I hear ya.

del roy

Right lads just keeping the list of remaining bets all together less someone misses one.

Todays bets

8.20 lord topper 2pts e/w 10/1 c/o powers

4.00 almunter 11/4 3pts win info stuff

and three ante post bets for this weekend

Friday The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w
Saturday. Epsom Dash.... 3.45 Edward lewis 2pts e/w 12/1
Saturday The Derby....Delano Roosevelt 2pts e/w 20/1


Now at least if we lose we can say " we lost but we were very well organized"

2ndcoming

Lord Topper NR

del roy

For anyone who needs a rest, no more bets until Monday, Jerry has gone away for a few days, next bet maybe Monday or Tuesday.

60 bets
7 winners
+104.5pts

del roy

I know some people cannot log to gambling or bookie sites from their work place as this was one of the reasons I used boards.ie.

Here is an article about the Oaks from Mike Cattermole from the sportinglife.

It is a shame that the obviously smart Lah Ti Dar misses out on her big chance in the Investec Oaks at Epsom on Friday and even if her absence has opened up the race a bit, it is a surprise that the field is such a small one.

However, Wild Illusion, with a pedigree that screams out middle distances, is taken to provide Charlie Appleby with a first domestic Classic success and William Buick his third.

Wild Illusion won the Group One Prix Marcel Boussac on soft ground at two, and in a good time, although the form has taken a knock or two since.

However, she showed she had trained on with a creditable fourth in the 1,000 Guineas behind Billesdon Brook and it is good to see that race standing up well with runner-up Laurens winning a Group One last weekend at Paris Longchamp, and the third Happily and sixth Soliloquy running good races (and virtually to form) in the Irish 1,000 Guineas last Sunday.

The significant thing about that run from Wild Illusion was that Appleby made a point of stressing beforehand that it was the Oaks that was the main aim for the daughter of Dubawi, for whom an easy surface is proven.

Given that her dam, Rumh, won at two miles, it seems reasonable to expect that she will build on what she has done already and, if she does, she will set a decent standard to aim at, being already the highest-rated filly in the line-up.

Five of her eight rivals are trained by six-time winning trainer Aidan O’Brien, and who knows how much improvement they will show? Ryan Moore sticks with Magic Wand, winner of the Cheshire Oaks - on good ground.

Magic Wand took a bit step forward there and her previous form (on a more testing surface on both starts) was nothing out of the ordinary. She looked a work in progress at Chester, albeit quite an exciting one, and stayed the trip well. You can imagine that there is plenty more to come.

Her stablemate, Forever Together, chased her home at a distance of three and a half lengths after having no luck in running at all and had been absent since last October - far longer than Magic Wand, who had a prep run earlier in the spring.

Bye Bye Baby is the second highest-rated in the field and the most experienced. She won the Group Three Blue Wind Stakes at the Curragh over 10f on a testing surface and is certainly bred to be suited by this trip.

Seamie Heffernan was in the saddle then but not now (it’s Wayne Lordan) – Heff is on I Can Fly after partnering her in the 1,000 Guineas when well held and perhaps unsuited by the quick surface. Moore had tried her out before that when third in the 7f Guineas trial at Leopardstown.

Trying to work out the Ballydoyle booking order is a puzzle in itself!

Ryan had ridden Flattering (a 10-length winner in soft/heavy ground at Cork) into third place in the Lingfield Oaks Trial and had asked her a few serious questions that day when she was beaten two and a half lengths by Perfect Clarity.

Clive Cox’s filly will now tackle a soft surface for the first time in her career but she showed a great attitude at Lingfield, handled the track well too, and could easily have the ability to get involved here.

Give And Take won the Musidora at York pretty convincingly and is going the right way but she was outclassed by Wild Illusion as a two-year-old last August and may struggle a touch.

In conclusion, WILD ILLUSION looks to have an obvious chance and is taken to hold off improved versions of both Magic Wand and Perfect Clarity.
VERDICT:

1st Wild Illusion

2nd Magic Wand

3rd Perfect Clarity

4th Bye Bye Baby

del roy

Just off the phone with Jerry,

he is delighted with the draw of stall 1 for WILD ILLUSION, he was saying the rail is going to be a big help.
He is hoping she comes out well and can keep a third or fourth position coming around the turn,

I would have thought they would go wide with the bad ground and stall 1 was a very bad draw.

I think he has realised she will not be making the running with O'Brien having so much of the field.

Anyway there are nine runners so lets hope we get a place at least.

del roy

Can't understand why Wild Illusion is not shorter than 5/2.

From the first eight in the betting on April 1st she is the only one still in the race.

Tipsters going for her today.

Pricewise ante post--Wild Illusion 12/1

Gerald Delamere--Wild Illusion and Bye bye baby

P. Kealy--Wild Illusion.

My Opinion, if there is not good money for this before the off today, I think it will be unplaced, there has not been a cent for it since the Magical and the Haggas runner was withdrawn. I just find it very strange its still 5/2.

What do others think.

Mgoraf

I think it will be backed well like all of their other runners have been in the classics. Masaar, soliloquy, symbolization

Kauto

del roy wrote: »

Can't understand why Wild Illusion is not shorter than 5/2.

From the first eight in the betting on April 1st she is the only one still in the race.

Tipsters going for her today.

Pricewise ante post--Wild Illusion 12/1

Gerald Delamere--Wild Illusion and Bye bye baby

P. Kealy--Wild Illusion.

My Opinion, if there is not good money for this before the off today, I think it will be unplaced, there has not been a cent for it since the Magical and the Haggas runner was withdrawn. I just find it very strange its still 5/2.

What do others think.

It's trained by the worst organisation training horses. All the evidence suggests that this horse will go backwards form it's last run. They will have more than likely blown her mind since her last run. How anyone could entertain backing her at 5/2 is beyond me.


Appleby a good man to get one to win on debut. Once they are raised in class they turn to putty. By and large Godolphin horses are soft.

bookman2

it looks like a very bad oaks it wouldn't surprise me if any of them win. it deffo wouldn't be for me at 5/2(16/1 is a different story tho!)and as Kauto is after saying appleby's horses tend to win early but then go backwards.

Itziger

bookman2 wrote: »

it looks like a very bad oaks it wouldn't surprise me if any of them win. it deffo wouldn't be for me at 5/2(16/1 is a different story tho!)and as Kauto is after saying appleby's horses tend to win early but then go backwards.

They look a poor bunch, but surely one of 'em will win