Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

del roy

3.15 KING LUD 5pts win max bet 7/2 3rd

5.35 waiting for richie 2pts e/w 10/1 1st r4 returns 26.5pts

Profit for today, 17.5pts

43 bets
5 winners
+76pts

Whiplash85

del roy wrote: »

5.35 waiting for richie 2pts e/w 10/1

Great pick thank you.

del roy

Newmarket
5.30 Invincible ridge 2pts e/w 10/1


The jockey Robert Dodsworth has had two mounts for this trainer and won on both. 2/2

So to keep this brilliant strike rate up, the trainer says, I know, I will get a nice well handicapped horse for Robert to ride so we have a chance of making it 3/3 but changes his mind and says new plan everybody

“ Why don’t we go to a track Newmarket where I send the best horse I ever trained (Reverence) three times and he never even placed in any of the three races. Why not also make the horse we send a 10yr old, one which Robert never rode before (eh well not in public that is), oh and make sure the horse isn’t inform, oh and before I forget why don’t we make it a hands and heels, you know them races where the jockeys are not allowed to whip/hit their horses.

Ok being a little cynical there but you get the drift, the horse is 10yrs old, he must also be a genuine animal and you don’t have to resort to the whip at the end of the race to make him go forward.

Can’t see him putting the Jockey on a no hoper when the lad is 2/2 with him.

Sorry guys the first statement for trainer Alston was a mix up, I deleted it. I t was actually for the last 12 months.

del roy

2.35 poets vanity 1pt e/w 9/1
3.30 count octave 2pt e/w 11/1



5.30 Invincible ridge 2pts e/w 10/1

Invinceible ridge is a non runner.

del roy

So on to York tomorrow, Lord Vetinari is rated 77 which gets him in to this race carrying 8st 3LB. I am hoping he sits out the back and Dwyer produces him late on in the races as the Salisbury run gives me a little bit of hope this straight will suit this horse.
Can I just say there is one BIG/HUGE negative, Balding is 1/50 at York but he is 28/1 and I think the place side of the bet is generous.

Jerry, note to self, avoid A.BALDING AT YORK.

Make that 1/51, might be something in this Jerry.

del roy

45 bets
5 winners
+70pts

3.00 glencadem master 1pt e/w 14/1

3.40 lightening spear 1pt e/w 25/1

8.20 mountain breath 1pt e/w 16/1

That's it until Wednesday, Jerry is heading off for a few days.

del roy

3.40 lightening spear 1pt e/w 25/1 2nd

At first glance I thought he got it but when they showed the freeze frame, aaaaahhhhhgggggggggggg.

del roy

3.00 glencadem master 1pt e/w 14/1 unpl

3.40 lightening spear 1pt e/w 25/1 2nd returns 6pts

8.20 mountain breath 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl

A break even day

48 bets
5 winners
+70pts

del roy

As you all know, some of Jerrys workmates follow his selections and I had a pint with one of them last night. we spoke about his selections, how he picks them and the price of them, mainly the night before he gives them out. He says they are all making a small few quid each year following them however he did tell me one guy is making more than the rest of them. I think its a crock of **** myself but here is what the gist of it is.

This guy Jerry works with realised Jery was above average at picking winners so he started monitoring the bets Jerry gave out, what precise time in the evening and he went back to see which bookmakers had cut the horses odds before Jerry gave it out. He then monitored the winners and realised the bookmaker that cut the odds of the horse before Jerry gave the bet out were dealing with connections from the yard the trained the winner of the race. If only it were that simple.

Told Jerry's workmate not to be minding him, he is a spoofer. Surely this would not work, would there not be software out there that would alert people when certain owners had a bet on there horse with certain bookmakers at 6.00pm the night before the race and the market would go mad, promoting this horse to top of the market or nearer and then the owners could LAY THE FOOK out of it.
I think its a load of crap. So basically what this clown is suggesting is he puts more on certain horses because he has that data from the early days with Jerry that the yard is also backing them. I find that hard to believe.

On to some other conversations, there was a bloke there who was not a punter but who follows the selections to €25 per point, he seemed to think Jerry was a normal everyday punter who was like all other punters. When I explained to him that Jerry would not be like any other "tipster in Ireland or the Uk who gives 16/1 and 20/1 shots twice a week. He says his brother inlaw has said Jerry is a guesser and he will not make money with anything less than 20% strike rate. I told him to check here this morning for a bit of feed back.
Below are all the bets Jerry gave since he restarted this thread, he is currently operating on a little under 11% strike but looking at the price of the horse he is backing and the e/w place price I think we could easily live with 11% strike rate. Don't forget we just missed out on a 25/1 shot yesterday by the shortest of margins, I think the way Jerry stakes the bets is keeping him ahead.

What do others think.

Below are all the bets I put the one s we got a return off in bold.



4.45 Baby ticker €40 e/w 22/1 unpl
3.45 Romain de senam 2 pts win €40 win 7/2 unpl
2.55 I'm a game changer 2pt e/w 12/1 unpl
4.50 goodman sam 2pts e/w 7/1 2nd
6.05 a great view 15/2 2pts e/w 1st
3.55 bobo mac 2pts e/w 9/1 1st 25/1
3.35 Khafoo shememi 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
4.20 Bravissimo 1pt e/w 20/1 unpl
3.15 scrutiny 9/1 2pt e/w 4th unpl
3.35 dawson city 33/1 1pt e/w unpl
4.40 ramonx 16/1 1pt e/w unpl
5.40 sir roderic 7/2 5 pts win max bet
4.15 cleonte 12/1 1pt e/w 2nd
8.20 Max liberman 8/1 1pt e/w unpl
Windsor 7.40 Quothquan 2pts e/w 14/1 2nd
5.25 it's how we roll 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl
7.45 Haines 2pts e/w 7/1 3rd
3.35 Raid 50/1 2pts e/w unpl
1.50 Breden 2pts e/w 16/1 unpl
2.40 masham star 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
5.20 Grecian Spirit 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl
3.50 minella scamp 4/1 3pts 1st
5.35 Aussie Valentine 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
4.05 Vaniteux 2pts win 5/1 unpl
5.15 cascaye 2pts e/w 11/1 2nd
7.20 lip service 3pts win. 4/1 unpl
3.00 showmethedough 5/1 2pts win unpl
5.05 Dark devil 2pts e/w 9/1 2nd
3,35 fun mac 2pts e/w 16/1 2nd
8.10 Bacaarcat 2pts e/w 20/1 3rd
8.00 straits of magellen 1p e/w 25/1 unpl
2.15 Koeman 2pts e/w 11/1 2nd
2.00 Carlos Du Fruitier 1pt e/w 25/1 unpl
3.55 Gopies daughter 20/1 1pt e/w 2nd
4.45 wooster 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl
3.15 the fresh prince 7/4 5pts win 1st
5.25 invisible clouds 2pts win 5/1 unpl
8.20 Crystal Casque 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl
4.40 ad libitum 1pt e/w 33/1 unpl
5.25 olive mabel 2pts e/w 16/1 unpl
4.35 Lord Vetinari 2pts e/w 28/1 unpl
5.35 waiting for richie 2pts e/w 10/1 1st
3.15 king lud 5pts win 7/2 unpl
2.35 poets vanity 1pt e/w 9/1 unpl
3.30 count octave 2pt e/w 11/1 unpl
3.00 glencadem master 1pt e/w 14/1 unpl
3.40 lightening spear 1pt e/w 25/1 2nd
8.20 mountain breath 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl


Still to come


Epsom Derby
Delano Roosevelt 2pts e/w 20/1

Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

djPSB

Who is Jerry?

del roy

Tom's friend.
You need to go back thru the threads to know whats going on.

akelly02

Ah Tom and jerry, it’s all coming together nicely now

del roy

Bit of movement on our Derby horse Delano Roosevelt all 20s now gone and laddies jut cut it from 20/1 to 14/1 the last hour.

del roy

Hexham
7.30 next level 2pts e/w 8/1

del roy

del roy wrote: »

Hexham
7.30 next level 2pts e/w 8/1

Sorry lads this changed at 05.54pm from 8/1>>>6/1

the whole year inn

del roy wrote: »

Sorry lads this changed at 05.54pm from 8/1>>>6/1

thats not today clearly?

Jayd0g

the whole year inn wrote: »

thats not today clearly?

Race is tomorrow, price change happened earlier today.

del roy

Saturday, Haydock.

2.50 Amix Silver bowl handicap.

Soldiers minute 1pt e/w 33/1


This is an ante post bet if this horse does not run we lose our money.


Any late comers ignore this bet, loser already.

del roy

Well that was the quickest 2pts we will ever lose on this thread, seemly Jerry was informed it will deffo run on Saturday.

fooking ante post.

48 bets
5 winners
+68pts

Jayd0g

del roy wrote: »

Well that was the quickest 2pts we will ever lose on this thread, seemly Jerry was informed it will deffo run on Saturday.

fooking ante post.

48 bets
5 winners
+68pts

Still showing as available on PP for 33/1, which is a bit cruel.

dclifford

del roy wrote: »

Well that was the quickest 2pts we will ever lose on this thread, seemly Jerry was informed it will deffo run on Saturday.

fooking ante post.

48 bets
5 winners
+68pts

Damn. I should have read all the thread before betting. just put bet on paddy power.

del roy

ANYONE WHO BACKED THIS AFTER 10.30 SHOULD GET THEIR MONEY BACK, HORSE WAS PULLED OUT OF RACE AT 10.30 SO WAS NOT IN RACE AFTER 10.30

del roy

del roy wrote: »

Hexham
7.30 next level 2pts e/w 8/1

3/1

stopped as if he was shot, walked up the straight.

del roy

49 bets
5 winners
+64pts

Kempton 7.25
Birds of prey 5pts win 4/1


Birds of prey ran in a 1m 3f class 3 handicap where she finished 4th beaten 2L. The winner of the race was no other than COUNT CALABASH who held a previous selection Koeman off in 2nd place in a tough handicap at Ascot. Count Calabash was raised 4LB for the Kempton race. His next race was Ascots 1m4f class 3 handicap.

I watched the race four times today and each time I watched it COUNT CALABASH seemed to win the race easier than I previously thought. He was drawn 14, he flew the stall with ease, joined the front runner, had never any cover at any time during the race, the front runner went out like a light and so did the third and fourth, he took up the lead and ran away from them, he pissed up. He was also backed as if defeat was out of the question. He was 11/1 on the previous evening when the betting opened and he won at 9/2fav.
He also went up an extra furlong more than the Kempton race, Birds of Prey was staying on very well at the end of that Kempton race, I think he can give DASH OF SPICE the fav a race of it tonight.

Birds of Prey was last trained by J. Oxx, again no reason why he was sold. He won two races at Gowran Park in 2017, he actually carried 9st 9lb when he was a 3yr old in one of the races where he was 7/2f, they must have known they had a tough little horse to go to war with as I think Gowran is a very tough course to win at, they don’t run the TRYESTES there for nothing.
Incidentally, in the first two maidens of his career he went off at odds of 25/1 and 16/1. They then went to Killarney to another maiden and must have thought he was unbeatable. He was backed into 11/10 fav and beaten 2L by a horse called WINGS OF EAGLE who ten months later won the 2017 English derby, I kid you not.

Onto the lady rider Megan Nichols who is riding Birds of Prey, she is 3 from 6 at Salisbury where she chinned us in a photo two weeks ago against Cleonte at 12/1. She is 2/6 here at Kempton.

del roy

Some interest in DELANO ROOSEVELT with the bookmakers over the last two days not least Ladbrokes 20/1>>>>11/1.

Jayd0g

del roy wrote: »

49 bets
5 winners
+64pts

Kempton 7.25
Birds of prey 5pts win 4/1


Birds of prey ran in a 1m 3f class 3 handicap where she finished 4th beaten 2L. The winner of the race was no other than COUNT CALABASH who held a previous selection Koeman off in 2nd place in a tough handicap at Ascot. Count Calabash was raised 4LB for the Kempton race. His next race was Ascots 1m4f class 3 handicap.

I watched the race four times today and each time I watched it COUNT CALABASH seemed to win the race easier than I previously thought. He was drawn 14, he flew the stall with ease, joined the front runner, had never any cover at any time during the race, the front runner went out like a light and so did the third and fourth, he took up the lead and ran away from them, he pissed up. He was also backed as if defeat was out of the question. He was 11/1 on the previous evening when the betting opened and he won at 9/2fav.
He also went up an extra furlong more than the Kempton race, Birds of Prey was staying on very well at the end of that Kempton race, I think he can give DASH OF SPICE the fav a race of it tonight.

Birds of Prey was last trained by J. Oxx, again no reason why he was sold. He won two races at Gowran Park in 2017, he actually carried 9st 9lb when he was a 3yr old in one of the races where he was 7/2f, they must have known they had a tough little horse to go to war with as I think Gowran is a very tough course to win at, they don’t run the TRYESTES there for nothing.
Incidentally, in the first two maidens of his career he went off at odds of 25/1 and 16/1. They then went to Killarney to another maiden and must have thought he was unbeatable. He was backed into 11/10 fav and beaten 2L by a horse called WINGS OF EAGLE who ten months later won the 2017 English derby, I kid you not.

Onto the lady rider Megan Nichols who is riding Birds of Prey, she is 3 from 6 at Salisbury where she chinned us in a photo two weeks ago against Cleonte at 12/1. She is 2/6 here at Kempton.

4th

the whole year inn

Jayd0g wrote: »

4th

Drifted out to 6s as well.

del roy

50 bets
5 winners
+59pts

5.30 SEA SHACK 3PTS WIN 5/1

non runner again.

del roy

Here we go again

2.35 sea shack 3pts e/w 6/1

del roy

Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w


Big shake up in the oaks betting today, fav Lah ti dar seems to be drifting everywhere, Sky bet have pushed her out to 7/2 and have WILD ILLUSION second fav at 5/1 however strong money for O'Briens three fillys that are left in the race.