The Frankel Foals Watch Thread!

BumperD · 21-10-2017 4:04pm

Group 1 win for Cracksman.

BumperD · 21-10-2017 4:13pm

Tryfix, I think that monarchs glen was gelded Potentially very good horse for next season if he stays right.

NaiveMelodies · 21-10-2017 5:31pm

It's a special feeling when you get emotional about a sporting event. Incredible.
Hon the Frankel!

diomed · 22-10-2017 1:33am

The one doubt about Frankel is the small number of runners.
The Racing Post website gives 74 runners.
From articles on the internet the number of covers in his first year at stud, 2013, was predicted at 135 before his first breeding season started.
Another article gives 133 mares covered, 126 in foal, at a fee of UK125k.
Now he has two crops of racing age, 2016 and 2017.

My guess is about 250 live foals, but only 74 UK & IRE runners.
On the Japanese stats website JBIS he has 11 starters in 2014 and 2015 (22 progeny).

Looking at pedigreequery.com there are 209 Frankel progeny listed.
57 have earnings; 48 are described as "unraced"; 104 have no earning listed (probably mostly unraced)

I started going down the list of Frankel colts and fillies that had no earnings listed (I gave up after thirteen).
104 no earnings listed: born 2014 (32); 2015 (68); 2016 (3); 2017 (1)

This was what I found for the first few thirteen
8th of 10, only one race listed
no race record
6th of 9, only one race listed
no race record
no race record
GBP 3,059 (5,2,4,8,7,10) that is a 10th not a 1 and a 0
GBP 241 (5,11,11,4) those are two 11th, not four wins
no race record
no race record
no race record
no race record
no race record
no race record

tryfix · 22-10-2017 8:49pm

diomed wrote: »

The one doubt about Frankel is the small number of runners.
The Racing Post website gives 74 runners.
From articles on the internet the number of covers in his first year at stud, 2013, was predicted at 135 before his first breeding season started.
Another article gives 133 mares covered, 126 in foal, at a fee of UK125k.
Now he has two crops of racing age, 2016 and 2017.

My guess is about 250 live foals, but only 74 UK & IRE runners.
On the Japanese stats website JBIS he has 11 starters in 2014 and 2015 (22 progeny).

Looking at pedigreequery.com there are 209 Frankel progeny listed.
57 have earnings; 48 are described as "unraced"; 104 have no earning listed (probably mostly unraced)

I started going down the list of Frankel colts and fillies that had no earnings listed (I gave up after thirteen).
104 no earnings listed: born 2014 (32); 2015 (68); 2016 (3); 2017 (1)

This was what I found for the first few thirteen
8th of 10, only one race listed
no race record
6th of 9, only one race listed
no race record
no race record
GBP 3,059 (5,2,4,8,7,10) that is a 10th not a 1 and a 0
GBP 241 (5,11,11,4) those are two 11th, not four wins
no race record
no race record
no race record
no race record
no race record
no race record

I don't think Frankel is any different to other young sires in the amount of runners he's had.

In his peer group, Excelebration has had 78 runners and Nathaniel has had 88 runners. Given the retained value of Frankel's female stock, it's fair to say that there may be a few of his who have been held back off the track until they are up to not devaluing themselves on the track.

Also AFAIK there are a fair few experimental matings on Pedigreequery.com. I think the editing is a bit like wikipedia editing.

Francie Barrett · 27-10-2017 7:36pm

Goldrush impressive again there, wondering what they will do next with it.

uxiant · 27-10-2017 11:35pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Goldrush impressive again there, wondering what they will do next with it.

Wouldn't exactly say impressive. Looks like they went slow enough in front (only my visual impression though) with Aneen, who hasn't done anything since winning a maiden last year potentially the best horse in the race. Her form the last day wasn't anything special either beating handicapper Marshall Jennings receiving a ton of weight.

I'd look at getting her out early for some of those weak Group races for fillies and mares early in the spring as I don't think she has a very high ceiling. There's one on Lincoln day over a mile and then you could look at stepping up to 10f for the Group 3 at Naas which should suit on pedigree. If she does well there improving over the winter you could roll the dice and look at a weak Group 1 like the Tatts Gold Cup. Otherwise there are some other Group races for fillies over 10f like the Mooresbridge and one on Guineas weekend too.

diomed · 19-12-2017 2:25pm

Frankel's first jumps runner scores despite hitting 99-1 in running

https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/frankel-s-first-jumps-runner-scores-despite-hitting-100-1-in-running/312915

Gavin "shels" · 19-12-2017 5:49pm

Serious Frankel stamina after the last - booted it home!

diomed · 01-01-2018 11:07pm

Another Frankel 2yo wins: Ejtyah won at Chelmsford on the all weather on 17th December.

What is interesting about this winner, first time out, is her dam Darysina was bought for Eur 800,000, and the Frankel stud fee was UKP 125,000.
"Over the last three years, Brown has worked closely with Dr Stephen Harrison, a geneticist whose Canterbury-based company, Thoroughbred Genetics Limited, creates genetic profiles of horses."
Darysina's owner, retired millionaire Dr Philip Brown, made his fortune in science publishing.

How genetics can create the next superstar racehorse
https://sporthorse-data.com/articles/2017/09/27/how-genetics-can-create-next-superstar-racehorse

bit of a bogey · 02-01-2018 12:26am

A great site that you got me onto before Diomed is Pedigreequery.com.

But any idea what the family code means?
e.g. if you put in Ejtyah, it says its family is "1-e"?

EJTYAH (GB) b. F, 2015 {1-e} DP = 6-5-16-7-0 (34) DI = 1.27 CD = 0.29 - 1 Starts, 1 Wins, 0 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: £3,235

diomed · 02-01-2018 1:33am

bit of a bogey wrote: »

But any idea what the family code means?
e.g. if you put in Ejtyah, it says its family is "1-e"?

That is the Bruce Lowe family number.
Around 1900 he traced the winners of the English Derby, English Oaks, English St Leger on the dam line,
i.e. from the dam of each classic winner back to the previous dam, back to her dam, and all the way back to the mares in the first edition of the General Stud Book.
The GSB was produced by James Weatherby in the 1800s by going to thoroughbred owners, and collecting pedigree data from their private stud books, back to c. 1700.
The need for a general stud book was to eliminate doubt about the correctness of pedigrees.
A horse for sale could be claimed to be by a sire or dam, and there was no central reference a buyer could consult to check.

Bruce Lowe ended up with about 40 mares in the first GSB to which all the winners of those classic races traced.
The female family with the most classic winners he named family number 1, the female family with the next highest total he named family number 2, and so on up to about family number 42.
There are also American family numbers for USA horses and Colonial family numbers for Australian/New Zealand horses.

The Bruce Lowe number has no use these days, except as a way of keeping track in pedigrees.
It is not used, and should not be used, as an indicator of quality. It isn't.

If you look up a mare and she is in a book or website of family number 7, her dam should also be famno 7, her dam also famno 7, and all the dams back to around 1700.
Your pedigree database is in trouble if you have a mare from e.g. famno 7 and her dam is e.g. famno 22. Something is wrong in your records.

There are so many horses in some of the families (number 1) that the family was split into 1-a, 1-b, 1-c, 1-d and so on.

diomed · 02-01-2018 1:55am

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thoroughbred_breeding_theories

Thoroughbred families include the following:

Families 1-43 are described by Bruce Lowe's Breeding Racehorses by the Figure System
Families A1-A37 descend from Sanders Bruce's American Stud Book, with mares who cannot be traced to Weatherbys General Stud Book (GSB)
Families Ar1-Ar2 are Argentine families
Families B1-B26 trace directly to F.M. Prior's Half-Bred Studbook
Families C1-C16 are described in the Australian Stud Book as approved Colonial Families
Families C17-C33 descend from Australian and New Zealand mares who cannot be traced to the GSB
Families P1-P2 are Polish families

Bruce Lowe family numbers were the Bitcoin of thoroughbred breeding around 1900. Everyone was buying horses from family number 1.
About 25 years ago the craze was the Dosage Index.

These "systems" were adequately described by the people who produced them.
Unfortunately, the public misinterpreted the ideas and thought they were a way of picking winners.
That was not the intention.

bit of a bogey · 02-01-2018 2:36am

I bow again to your knowledge. Thank you.

GillLebowski · 24-01-2018 6:05am

diomed wrote: »

Frankel's first jumps runner scores despite hitting 99-1 in running

https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/frankel-s-first-jumps-runner-scores-despite-hitting-100-1-in-running/312915

Wins again yesterday at Wetherby...

tryfix · 27-01-2018 6:21pm

diomed wrote: »

Frankel's first jumps runner scores despite hitting 99-1 in running

https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/frankel-s-first-jumps-runner-scores-despite-hitting-100-1-in-running/312915

He should be a cracking sire of hurdlers. He himself could go on any ground while his full brother Noble Mission was transformed by soft going. Many of his stock have been solid stayers with plenty of cruising speed who lack a punch at the business end of the better races. He should be capable of producing loads of sequence winners around the gaff tracks.:pac:

Earendil · 07-02-2018 3:13pm

1st 3 Commentariolus (IRE)

Another one over jumps.

Itziger · 07-02-2018 5:42pm

Has the bould Frank got anything going to the Festival in the Cotswolds?

Itziger · 07-02-2018 5:42pm

Has the bould Frank got anything going to the Festival in the Cotswolds?

tryfix · 21-04-2018 11:49am

*Bump*

This could be a huge year for Frankel where he goes from being a very promising young sire into being a fully credible replacement for Galileo.

It all looks very promising for him with his blue blood crop of 3yos ( a filly by Zarkava and other easy winners winning in France as well as Elarqam and Nelson being in the classic picture and Cracksman now supposedly being the finished article at 4 )

My take on it would be to be wary of expecting improvement from the more typically flashy Frankel's. The ones with temperament issues that make great debuts and tend not to advance as well as could be expected. Also there's a big possibility that the Frankel's need Soft Ground to really shine.

Cracksman ( similar to Frankel's brother Noble Mission ) was transformed by Soft Ground last Autumn. I wouldn't oppose him on Soft Ground but would definitely do so on Good to firm.

Nelson is a very admirable horse. He's so genuine compared to some of the flashier Frankel's and especially in comparison to his Galileo three parts brother US Army Ranger. I still see him as Leger horse whose best form has come with cut in the ground.

Elarqam apparently fits the bill in not being one of the flashy types. He's plain enough being out of the gangly star mare Attraction. I'd hope he'd be a good solid performer like his dam. He too though has shown his best form on Soft Ground and his form needs to be stepped up on.

Itziger · 21-04-2018 1:54pm

tryfix wrote: »

*Bump*

This could be a huge year for Frankel where he goes from being a very promising young sire into being a fully credible replacement for Galileo.

It all looks very promising for him with his blue blood crop of 3yos ( a filly by Zarkava and other easy winners winning in France as well as Elarqam and Nelson being in the classic picture and Cracksman now supposedly being the finished article at 4 )

My take on it would be to be wary of expecting improvement from the more typically flashy Frankel's. The ones with temperament issues that make great debuts and tend not to advance as well as could be expected. Also there's a big possibility that the Frankel's need Soft Ground to really shine.

Cracksman ( similar to Frankel's brother Noble Mission ) was transformed by Soft Ground last Autumn. I wouldn't oppose him on Soft Ground but would definitely do so on Good to firm.

Nelson is a very admirable horse. He's so genuine compared to some of the flashier Frankel's and especially in comparison to his Galileo three parts brother US Army Ranger. I still see him as Leger horse whose best form has come with cut in the ground.

Elarqam apparently fits the bill in not being one of the flashy types. He's plain enough being out of the gangly star mare Attraction. I'd hope he'd be a good solid performer like his dam. He too though has shown his best form on Soft Ground and his form needs to be stepped up on.

Very, very early days to be putting that up. If we had a thread on every sire out there the place would be clogged up soon enough.

tryfix · 21-04-2018 3:18pm

Itziger wrote: »

Very, very early days to be putting that up. If we had a thread on every sire out there the place would be clogged up soon enough.

Ah shur I know that well. I was being more tongue in cheek than serious. Frankel would have to get by Dubawi and whatever Coolmore eventually replace Galileo with. There have been some better challenges to Galileo's throne than Frankel's first crop efforts. Sea The Stars and New Approach started very well and fell back.

It's interesting that O'Brien's patient introduction of his horses seems to have worked on his Frankel's while a lot of the other Frankels seem to burn brightly early and stop progressing.

diomed · 22-04-2018 3:51am

Frankel at stud
Fee pounds sterling: 2013 to 2017 125,000; 2018 175,000.

Great Britain leading sires 2017 by earnings: 4th with GBP 2,089,207.
Great Britain leading sires 2017 by wins: 45th with 46 wins.
Great Britain leading sires 2017 by winners: 37th with 32 winners.

Cracksman won GBP 1,353,004 all except GBP 6,469 of that in 2017. Eminent won GBP 437,527 all except GBP 5,175 of that in 2017.
Over 85% of Frankel offspring earnings in Great Britain in 2017 came from two horses.
If he didn’t have those two he would have been 43rd in the sire earning chart.
But he did have those two.

Can he produce more than two big earners?
Perhaps with four-year-olds running in 2018 alongside three-year-olds his earnings will have a more solid look.

22-04-2018 5:06pm

diomed wrote: »

Frankel at stud
Fee pounds sterling: 2013 to 2017 125,000; 2018 175,000.

Great Britain leading sires 2017 by earnings: 4th with GBP 2,089,207.
Great Britain leading sires 2017 by wins: 45th with 46 wins.
Great Britain leading sires 2017 by winners: 37th with 32 winners.

Cracksman won GBP 1,353,004 all except GBP 6,469 of that in 2017. Eminent won GBP 437,527 all except GBP 5,175 of that in 2017.
Over 85% of Frankel offspring earnings in Great Britain in 2017 came from two horses.
If he didn’t have those two he would have been 43rd in the sire earning chart.
But he did have those two.

Can he produce more than two big earners?
Perhaps with four-year-olds running in 2018 alongside three-year-olds his earnings will have a more solid look.

Sires like Frankel are global. Cracksman isn't even his biggest earner - Soul Stirring is.

Quick check of RP says 12 progeny with earnings over £100K which is good going considering we've only seen two crops. For fair comparison Nathaniel has 4 and Helmet 6, would be surprised if any sire in the same position has more.

It doesn't matter how you crunch the numbers he's been a success to date and I suspect will go from strength to strength.

tryfix · 22-04-2018 9:12pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Sires like Frankel are global. Cracksman isn't even his biggest earner - Soul Stirring is.

Quick check of RP says 12 progeny with earnings over £100K which is good going considering we've only seen two crops. For fair comparison Nathaniel has 4 and Helmet 6, would be surprised if any sire in the same position has more.

It doesn't matter how you crunch the numbers he's been a success to date and I suspect will go from strength to strength.

Nathaniel and Helmet stood at €20,000 and £8,000 respectively in their first stallion seasons in the UK. They are the wrong kind of benchmarks to be measuring Frankel against. The quality of mare they were breeding to wasn't within an asses roar of the star studded books of mares that Frankel has been servicing since he went to stud.

The only stallion that went to stud in Europe at such a high first season stud fee was the great Sadlers Wells who sired 6 individual Group 1 winners in his first crop.

Sea The Stars as a first crop stallion was standing at a tier just below the level Frankel and Sadlers Wells started at. That's the kind of benchmark that Frankel should be measured against.

antietam · 22-04-2018 9:31pm

tryfix wrote: »

Nathaniel and Helmet stood at €20,000 and £8,000 respectively in their first stallion seasons in the UK. They are the wrong kind of benchmarks to be measuring Frankel against. The quality of mare they were breeding to wasn't within an asser of the star studded books of mares that Frankel has been servicing since he went to stud.

The only stallion that went to stud in Europe at such a high first season stud fee was the great Sadlers Wells who sired 6 individual Group 1 winners in his first crop.

Sea The Stars as a first crop stallion was standing at a tier just below the level Frankel and Sadlers Wells started at. That's the kind of benchmark that Frankel should be measured against.

Facts based state Every COLT/FILLY bred by Frankel costing £300,000 your return is - BIG TIME

tryfix · 22-04-2018 9:49pm

antietam wrote: »

Facts based state Every COLT/FILLY bred by Frankel costing £300,000 your return is - BIG TIME

Yep, he's making loads of money for breeders. All he has to do is to keep throwing the odd star as well as a few of the hyped ones that eventually flop. That'll be enough to keep the money churning around him and because he's so well bred himself and his mates will be top drawer, he should have no problem keeping the mega stud fee going.

diomed · 23-04-2018 8:50pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Sires like Frankel are global. Cracksman isn't even his biggest earner - Soul Stirring is. .

Yes, it is an advantage having a runner in Japan.
Deep Impact runners earned €317 million since he began in 2010.

tryfix · 30-04-2018 1:33pm

Cracksman looking pretty awesome in the Ganay and ensuring that Frankel has at least 1 GP1 winner this year.

Finishing down the field was another Frankel colt Finche, who after winning a group 2 last year hasn't progressed. Finche is a big and not too well coordinated type, he's as typical of the Frankels as Cracksman is untypical of them. It's astonishing how much better Cracksman is now travelling through his races compared to this time last year when he looked to lack pace.

uxiant · 30-04-2018 1:58pm

tryfix wrote: »

Cracksman looking pretty awesome in the Ganay and ensuring that Frankel has at least 1 GP1 winner this year.

Finishing down the field was another Frankel colt Finche, who after winning a group 2 last year hasn't progressed. Finche is a big and not too well coordinated type, he's as typical of the Frankels as Cracksman is untypical of them. It's astonishing how much better Cracksman is now travelling through his races compared to this time last year when he looked to lack pace.

I know little about the biomechanics of horses but does Cracksman not have a strange action too? Looks quite awkward and uncoordinated to me but obviously it doesn't stop him running extremely quickly.

The Frankel Foals Watch Thread!

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