The Frankel Foals Watch Thread!

diomed

It was strange to see the clouds of dust kicked up by the runners.

sting60

sting60 wrote: »

Racing post Monday headline 1/3 "Frankel super sire wins Oaks" or 5/1 " Caravaggio paints a beautiful picture".

999/1 "I was spectacularly wrong about none of frankels progeny being good enough to place in a classic"

tryfix

A huge day potentially for Frankel today, he's gone off the boil a bit publicity wise, but a win for the well fancied Cracksman in the Irish Derby would catapult him up into 2nd place in the GB and Ireland Stallion prize money list with Eminent to come in the Eclipse next week.


A week could be a long time in this sire's career.

the whole year inn

tryfix wrote: »

A huge day potentially for Frankel today, he's gone off the boil a bit publicity wise, but a win for the well fancied Cracksman in the Irish Derby would catapult him up into 2nd place in the GB and Ireland Stallion prize money list with Eminent to come in the Eclipse next week.


A week could be a long time in this sire's career.

What time is this racing at?

Harry Angstrom

the whole year inn wrote: »

What time is this racing at?

5.20 Curragh

Auroras_encore

Why is this even a thread , sts has far outperformed Frankel and even Nathaniel is churning out better offspring

tryfix

GB/Ire TOP TEN

STALLION £ TOTAL PRIZE
Galileo £5,114,758
Dubawi £1,370,733
Pour Moi £1,216,737
Dark Angel £1,175,130
Kodiac £1,157,460
Frankel £1,052,030
Iffraaj £981,991
Fastnet Rock £903,205
Acclamation £895,026
Exceed And Excel £885,704

http://bloodstock.racingpost.com

Well Frankel's a Sterling millionaire for the year so far and he's in some very lofty company. Of course if you removed Cracksman's earnings for two placed efforts in the Derbies then Frankel would vanish off down the table.

Itziger

tryfix wrote: »

http://bloodstock.racingpost.com

Well Frankel's a Sterling millionaire for the year so far and he's in some very lofty company. Of course if you removed Cracksman's earnings for two placed efforts in the Derbies then Frankel would vanish off down the table.

Why would you do that??

The Big G way out in front anyway!

tryfix

Itziger wrote: »

Why would you do that??

The Big G way out in front anyway!

Ye'd do it to see where'd he'd stand if his Cracksman had been injured and out for the season. In the way that it's obvious Pour Moi is not a top stallion because he would be nowhere without Wings Of Eagles, but of course Frankel has much more strength in depth than Pour Moi ever had.

I used to think that Cracksman was a bit of an oddity in himself and not a typical Frankel, but as the Frankel's mature they are coming across as simply solid staying types.

tryfix

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etIN6N6DN34

This Finche has potential, wasn't a great Gp2 by any stretch but the way he really dug deep when challenged is promising as is the fact that he's a half brother to a very good horse called Byword. One Frankel likely to improve as a 4yo?

tryfix

He's back, a group race double with Eminent Gp2 and Lady Frankel Gp3 today to add to the recent Frankuus's group 3 win. Particularly satisfying to see that they are showing signs of improving with age after so many of his having displayed signs of precociousness.

His winner to runner ratio has been falling to more normal levels and his arch rival Nathaniel had a few good winners recently including Group winner God Given in France.

diomed

I love reading "The Original 2008 Thoroughbred Times Racing Almanac".
It is 990 pages, bought for $5, and full of nice statistics.

You all probably know Frankel ran and won 14 races.

Most consecutive victories
56 Camarero (b.1951) in Puerto Rica
54 Kincsem (b.1874) in Hungary, Austria, Germany, France, England
39 Galgo, Jr (b.1928) in Puerto Rica
25 Black Caviar (b.2006) in Australia, England (not in book)
23 Leviathan (b.1793) in USA
22 Miss Petty (b.1981) in Australia
22 Pooker T (b.1957) in Puerto Rica
21 Bond's First Counsel (b.1798) in USA
21 Lottery (b.1803) in USA
21 Meteor (b.1773) in England
21 Picnic In The Park (b.1979) in Australia
20 Fashion; Filch; Kentucky
19 Boston; Skiff
18 Hindoo; Karayel
17 Alice Hawthorn; Beeswing; Careless; Dudley; Gradisco; Hanover; Harkaway; Mainbrace; Sir Ken; Winx (b.2011 Australia)
16 Cigar; Citation; Hallowed Dreams; Luke Blackburn; Master Bagot; Minimo; Miss Woodford; Mister Frisky; Ormonde; Prestige; Ribot; The Bard

I think racing in Puerto Rica is not too competitive.
Once while waiting for a train to Aqueduct Racetrack, New York, I got chatting to a guy from Puerto Rica.
He was impressed I knew about Camarero.

Unbeaten Racehorses
54 Kincsem *
25 Black Caviar
18 Eclipse
16 Ormonde; Ribot
15 Colin
14 Nearco; Frankel
* (my poker name and my e-mail address)

Honourable mention for Provideo, who won 16 of 24 races as a two year old in 1984.

diomed

diomed wrote: »

Honourable mention for Provideo, who won 16 of 24 races as a two year old in 1984.

This horse is shown as Provideo (GB) on the Racing Post website, and on pedigreequery.com.

In the General Stud Book 40 on page 1274
1982 (Jan 4) b or br c PROVIDEO in Ireland by Godswalk (USA)

International Federation of Horseracing Authorities
In order to avoid having a number added to the name of a horse coming from abroad, the registered name must have a suffix added to it, showing the country of foaling.
The suffix between brackets is taken from the International Code of Suffixes (Appendix 2) and constitutes part of the animal's registered name.

I am fixing pedigreequery.com and writing to the Racing Post to claim back our citizen.

And why do race commentators not give the horses's full name e.g. Frankel (GB) ? :rolleyes:

diomed

Star mare Winx extended her unbeaten run to 18 races with a narrow victory by a head in a thrilling renewal of the Group 2 Warwick Stakes at Randwick on Saturday.

diomed

I had a look at the Racing Post Sire stats.

STALLION WINRS-RUNRS W-R WINS RUNS W/R £ WIN PRIZE £ TOTAL PRIZE
Galileo 69-215 32% 91 564 16% 4,735,302 7,102,959
Dark Angel 82-293 28% 105 863 12% 1,461,018 2,131,522
Dubawi 67-167 40% 84 419 20% 1,241,984 2,027,887
Kodiac 88-330 27% 121 996 12% 977,525 1,643,834
Nathaniel 23-81 28% 33 193 17% 1,383,037 1,509,560
Acclamation 72-258 28% 90 841 11% 817,806 1,451,336
Iffraaj 42-152 28% 54 459 12% 953,640 1,424,781
Sea The Stars 34-90 38% 44 218 20% 936,325 1,403,489
Pour Moi 14-39 36% 17 108 16% 1,071,362 1,283,277
Invincible Spirit 50-213 23% 58 666 9% 659,663 1,269,209
Frankel 27-66 41% 35 153 23% 418,809 1,209,867
Fastnet Rock 38-133 29% 52 391 13% 670,913 1,134,400
Exceed And Excel 80-247 32% 98 714 14% 773,282 1,124,346
Teofilo 46-149 31% 63 430 15% 706,826 1,114,973
Pivotal 47-137 34% 65 447 15% 518,106 1,067,039
Dansili 31-101 31% 42 298 14% 743,736 1,030,840
Shamardal 45-143 31% 58 383 15% 625,722 952,532
Scat Daddy 13-26 50% 18 62 29% 804,661 884,605
Danehill Dancer 14-46 30% 15 147 10% 799,232 864,004
War Front 22-59 37% 29 146 20% 418,048 825,656
Kyllachy 63-207 30% 89 706 13% 568,288 823,726
New Approach 39-134 29% 58 347 17% 577,050 808,766
Excelebration 23-78 29% 35 218 16% 450,710 774,121
Equiano 34-176 19% 42 506 8% 576,468 767,804
Cape Cross 47-138 34% 61 392 16% 424,329 694,071
Oasis Dream 50-161 31% 74 473 16% 387,671 675,879
Mastercraftsman 40-181 22% 48 472 10% 447,672 670,354
Dutch Art 48-191 25% 61 530 12% 345,580 649,166
Lawman 37-173 21% 52 537 10% 355,165 647,227
High Chaparral 29-106 27% 35 277 13% 389,755 641,447
Holy Roman Emperor 47-159 30% 60 469 13% 440,504 628,938
Zoffany 34-132 26% 44 379 12% 423,710 611,088
Arcano 34-135 25% 47 443 11% 377,740 605,560
Lope De Vega 42-111 38% 47 287 16% 332,643 582,655
Dream Ahead 29-102 28% 40 294 14% 302,062 571,652
Showcasing 31-118 26% 39 356 11% 284,374 568,426
Zebedee 44-182 24% 57 563 10% 366,750 553,459
Bahamian Bounty 31-133 23% 44 421 10% 358,732 545,174
Rock Of Gibraltar 31-118 26% 42 413 10% 284,238 541,151
Bated Breath 31-112 28% 40 286 14% 375,764 540,555
Champs Elysees 31-104 30% 40 269 15% 301,958 520,332
Duke Of Marmalade 10-60 17% 12 157 8% 313,574 507,434
Rip Van Winkle 20-121 17% 27 322 8% 276,209 450,793
Poet´s Voice 38-171 22% 46 426 11% 292,115 446,476
Raven´s Pass 30-98 31% 42 249 17% 342,055 445,896
Fast Company 38-128 30% 45 396 11% 299,479 438,175
Kheleyf 42-170 25% 49 515 10% 295,082 432,182
Choisir 21-79 27% 26 217 12% 283,937 405,427
Jeremy 13-51 25% 17 171 10% 285,184 369,088
Dylan Thomas 15-48 31% 23 161 14% 290,968 357,244


Comments:

• Frankel has only 2yos and 3yos running so it is too soon to judge.
• Horses with high winners/runners and high wins/runs especially with low total numbers suggest a bit of stage managing their careers (if they are new sires).
• Danehill Dancer (93%); Nathaniel (92%); Scat Daddy (91%); Pour Moi (83%) have the highest Win prize to Total Prize percentages, suggesting one or two big wins e.g. Derby, Oaks.
• Frankel has the lowest Win prize to Total Prize percentage by some way, 35%. The next lowest is Pivotal at 49%.

diomed

It is amazing that you can pay buy a mare, pay for her keep, pay a big stallion fee to one of those top 50 sires, and have a 12.7% chance of a win in a race (2,514 wins out of 19,750 runs), or a 28.2% chance of a win in a year of running.

The winners average 1.3 wins each.
28.2% of the runners of those top 50 sires did win, 71.8% didn't win.
Average prizemoney for a runner by those top 50 sires was .... "drum roll" ... £7,143.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

I had a look at the Racing Post Sire stats.

STALLION WINRS-RUNRS W-R WINS RUNS W/R £ WIN PRIZE £ TOTAL PRIZE
Galileo 69-215 32% 91 564 16% 4,735,302 7,102,959
Dark Angel 82-293 28% 105 863 12% 1,461,018 2,131,522
Dubawi 67-167 40% 84 419 20% 1,241,984 2,027,887
Kodiac 88-330 27% 121 996 12% 977,525 1,643,834
Nathaniel 23-81 28% 33 193 17% 1,383,037 1,509,560
Acclamation 72-258 28% 90 841 11% 817,806 1,451,336
Iffraaj 42-152 28% 54 459 12% 953,640 1,424,781
Sea The Stars 34-90 38% 44 218 20% 936,325 1,403,489
Pour Moi 14-39 36% 17 108 16% 1,071,362 1,283,277
Invincible Spirit 50-213 23% 58 666 9% 659,663 1,269,209
Frankel 27-66 41% 35 153 23% 418,809 1,209,867
Fastnet Rock 38-133 29% 52 391 13% 670,913 1,134,400
Exceed And Excel 80-247 32% 98 714 14% 773,282 1,124,346
Teofilo 46-149 31% 63 430 15% 706,826 1,114,973
Pivotal 47-137 34% 65 447 15% 518,106 1,067,039
Dansili 31-101 31% 42 298 14% 743,736 1,030,840
Shamardal 45-143 31% 58 383 15% 625,722 952,532
Scat Daddy 13-26 50% 18 62 29% 804,661 884,605
Danehill Dancer 14-46 30% 15 147 10% 799,232 864,004
War Front 22-59 37% 29 146 20% 418,048 825,656
Kyllachy 63-207 30% 89 706 13% 568,288 823,726
New Approach 39-134 29% 58 347 17% 577,050 808,766
Excelebration 23-78 29% 35 218 16% 450,710 774,121
Equiano 34-176 19% 42 506 8% 576,468 767,804
Cape Cross 47-138 34% 61 392 16% 424,329 694,071
Oasis Dream 50-161 31% 74 473 16% 387,671 675,879
Mastercraftsman 40-181 22% 48 472 10% 447,672 670,354
Dutch Art 48-191 25% 61 530 12% 345,580 649,166
Lawman 37-173 21% 52 537 10% 355,165 647,227
High Chaparral 29-106 27% 35 277 13% 389,755 641,447
Holy Roman Emperor 47-159 30% 60 469 13% 440,504 628,938
Zoffany 34-132 26% 44 379 12% 423,710 611,088
Arcano 34-135 25% 47 443 11% 377,740 605,560
Lope De Vega 42-111 38% 47 287 16% 332,643 582,655
Dream Ahead 29-102 28% 40 294 14% 302,062 571,652
Showcasing 31-118 26% 39 356 11% 284,374 568,426
Zebedee 44-182 24% 57 563 10% 366,750 553,459
Bahamian Bounty 31-133 23% 44 421 10% 358,732 545,174
Rock Of Gibraltar 31-118 26% 42 413 10% 284,238 541,151
Bated Breath 31-112 28% 40 286 14% 375,764 540,555
Champs Elysees 31-104 30% 40 269 15% 301,958 520,332
Duke Of Marmalade 10-60 17% 12 157 8% 313,574 507,434
Rip Van Winkle 20-121 17% 27 322 8% 276,209 450,793
Poet´s Voice 38-171 22% 46 426 11% 292,115 446,476
Raven´s Pass 30-98 31% 42 249 17% 342,055 445,896
Fast Company 38-128 30% 45 396 11% 299,479 438,175
Kheleyf 42-170 25% 49 515 10% 295,082 432,182
Choisir 21-79 27% 26 217 12% 283,937 405,427
Jeremy 13-51 25% 17 171 10% 285,184 369,088
Dylan Thomas 15-48 31% 23 161 14% 290,968 357,244


Comments:

• Frankel has only 2yos and 3yos running so it is too soon to judge.
• Horses with high winners/runners and high wins/runs especially with low total numbers suggest a bit of stage managing their careers (if they are new sires).
• Danehill Dancer (93%); Nathaniel (92%); Scat Daddy (91%); Pour Moi (83%) have the highest Win prize to Total Prize percentages, suggesting one or two big wins e.g. Derby, Oaks.
• Frankel has the lowest Win prize to Total Prize percentage by some way, 35%. The next lowest is Pivotal at 49%.

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

Agree entirely that younger sires are hugely advantaged in the winners to runners %. There are many older Galileos about the place now who are professional losers and yet their owners just keep on running them every few weeks or so for the hell of it.

Dubawi's percentages are very impressive for an older stallion but his stock don't hit the same top targets anywhere near as often or dominantly as Galileo's do. Galileo suffers from over representation with his numerous Coolmore owned runners beating each other and knocking back the percentages.

tryfix

I still think the future is okay for Frankel, he's getting such good mares sent to him that he's a pedigree warehouse for top blood lines which will out again when they pass through him. This along with the fact that he's able to produce robust group class horses by the bucket load should ensure his stock remain in demand at the sales for the foreseeable future.

diomed

Rostropovich (2yo) by Frankel wins the Futurity Stakes (Group 2) at The Curragh by a short head from a Galileo with another Galileo in third.

tryfix

And the Warehouse strikes as Zoffany's half brother Rostrprovich wins the Gp 2 Futurity at the Curragh and likely ensures some kind of stud career for himself in the process.

*snap*

diomed

Another point about sire stats is a win in a £3,500 class 6 at Lingfield is a win as much as a win in a Derby. Cash won, win or place, is always a good indicator.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Another point about sire stats is a win in a £3,500 class 6 at Lingfield is a win as much as a win in a Derby. Cash won, win or place, is always a good indicator.

I like to look at the amount of 100+ rpr runners a horse has sired to give a reflection of what they are capable of producing. It gives a good reflection of the strength in depth of the stallion and also shows if a cheap stallion has upgraded the lesser mares he has covered.

EICVD

I see Gordon Elliott has bought the first Frankel to go juvenile hurdling, Commentariolus. Can't say I've heard of it up until today, advertised for sale at €30,000.

diomed

A 3yo €1.8 million Frankel makes its debut in a £5,000 maiden on the all-weather at Kempton tonight.
She is 11/10 and imo must be a lay at that price in a 12 runner race against horses with experience (incl places), many apprentice ridden claiming weight.
Making a racing debut as a 3yo in September sets off alarm bells.

"The regally bred La Figlia, one of the most expensive offspring of Frankel, will pique interest at Kempton's evening meeting on Tuesday when she makes her belated racecourse debut.
When she was knocked down to a representative of Australian entrepreneur Paul Makin for €1.8 million in 2014 she smashed the Irish foal record at Goffs."

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/1079/kempton-aw/2017-09-05/682590/at-a-glance

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

A 3yo €1.8 million Frankel makes its debut in a £5,000 maiden on the all-weather at Kempton tonight.
She is 11/10 and imo must be a lay at that price in a 12 runner race against horses with experience (incl places), many apprentice ridden claiming weight.
Making a racing debut as a 3yo in September sets off alarm bells.

"The regally bred La Figlia, one of the most expensive offspring of Frankel, will pique interest at Kempton's evening meeting on Tuesday when she makes her belated racecourse debut.
When she was knocked down to a representative of Australian entrepreneur Paul Makin for €1.8 million in 2014 she smashed the Irish foal record at Goffs."

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/1079/kempton-aw/2017-09-05/682590/at-a-glance

Good thinking but I'd be wary of laying her for too much just in case they have her primed and because these Frankels tend to be ready to win on their debut much of the time. What's Noseda's record like with first time out horses? She's only 8/11 with PP so maybe she carries a lot of stable confidence and is not just a very pretty pedigree.

I'd have zero respect for her price tag which is a reflection of her broodmare potential and I'd be very worried about her being sharp enough at the 6f trip.

Don't think too much of Finsceal Beo as a broodmare, I was very fond of her Ol Man River ( Montjeu) but he was dodgy enough in the end and he won his maiden at a mile as a 2yo.

None of Finsceal Beo's progeny have run at 6f. An Cailin Orga ( Galileo) made her debut at 8f as a 3yo and didn't win until she was stepped up to 10f.

Too the stars ( Sea The Stars) made her debut at 10f as a 3yo, ran 4 times all at 10f and won her last race rated 75.

tryfix

Noseda said: "With a filly you need to know if you do start her you feel sure she's going to at least be a winner. They're better unraced than unplaced.

"La Figlia is a pretty nice filly. She has to go and do it on the track but is well above the normal standard you see for a maiden at this time of year."

https://www.racingpost.com/news/tuesday-action/1-8m-frankel-purchase-well-above-standard-for-kempton-debut/299484

Big talk from Noseda... but unlike the filly's price tag, talk is cheap.

diomed

I'm thinking more of a place lay.
She is either the next Pegasus OR they have spent almost two years trying to get her ready to win a small race and retire.

diomed

The daughter of 2007 1,000 Guineas winner Finsceal Beo was put in training with William Haggas but moved yards late last year to Jeremy Noseda.
She was due to start her campaign in the spring until she suffered a setback and now launches her career in a 6f maiden under Ryan Moore.
Noseda said: "I got her last autumn, then she had a break. She was due to run at the Craven meeting but unfortunately got cast a couple of days beforehand and did herself some mischief.
"We had to give her six weeks doing nothing. It's been a long road back but thankfully we're back where we want to be."

Quite an unfortunate filly.

gillamandango

Serious ride by the best jockey in the world just there!

Gregk961

gillamandango wrote: »

Serious ride by the best jockey in the world just there!

Hitchcocks not bad but i wouldn't go that far