The Frankel Foals Watch Thread!

Itziger

Orinoco, hard to argue with that. I think some people do get irked by the British hype of him as a sire. It is a bit early to make a final call but he doesn't seem to be a world beater really. Early last year we were being informed of every single maiden winner.

diomed

But you can argue with that.

It is amazing the things you can do with stallion statistics.
The link above is for worldwide stallion earnings for sires standing in the EU.

Using that selection will exclude Deep Impact (sire of Saxon Warrior) from the 2018 sire statistics, which of course will take out the 2000 Guineas win, and might exclude the English Derby and English St Leger winnings if that horse wins the triple crown.

Frankel is based in the EU and a large part of his 2017 worldwide earnings were Yen 298,247,000 earned in Japan (USD 2,704,864.02).
Most of that was one filly, Soul Stirring (Yen 187,680,000).
Frankel was 68th in Japan in 2017.

I think we need a few more years to form an opinion, and better statistics.

antietam

diomed wrote: »

But he was trained by Sir Henry Cecil.

Ive never ever spoke or printed my absolute admiration for a brilliant trainer but most all a genuine gentleman.I got to know him before Indian Skimmer won at the Phoenix Park and was invited [with his party]on the hottest day ever at the Curragh when Commander In Chief won the Derby[he told me a year in advance he would win].Henry Cecil was the nicest/down to earth man I've ever ever had the absolute privilege to know in racing.To answer your reply..you could be right but that is not Henry's fault.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

But you can argue with that.

It is amazing the things you can do with stallion statistics.
The link above is for worldwide stallion earnings for sires standing in the EU.

Using that selection will exclude Deep Impact (sire of Saxon Warrior) from the 2018 sire statistics, which of course will take out the 2000 Guineas win, and might exclude the English Derby and English St Leger winnings if that horse wins the triple crown.

Frankel is based in the EU and a large part of his 2017 worldwide earnings were Yen 298,247,000 earned in Japan (USD 2,704,864.02).
Most of that was one filly, Soul Stirring (Yen 187,680,000).
Frankel was 68th in Japan in 2017.

I think we need a few more years to form an opinion, and better statistics.

Soul Stirring is a good example of how the Frankel's generally are as a horses. They are usually impeccably bred ( she's out of Stacelita a 6 times Gp1 winner ) and start off well and then begin to struggle to make further progress ( although she may pick up again when she goes back up in trip this year ).

1/131867-07 is her form and her RPRs progressed like this . 112, 112, 109, 112, 109, 101, 108, 102, 105.

Those are poor enough RPRs for a horse that has won millions of Euro.





He is a success as a stallion, his win rate and Stakes haul show that and with Cracksman he has already produced a better horse in his first crop than any one the supposedly mighty Dubawi has ever produced. Dubawi 's best being the admirable Al-Kazeem.

On the other hand Dubawi will produce a batch of European Gp1 winners every year, whereas Frankel is more likely to produce a batch of Gp3 and Gp2 winners every year with the possibility that he can always find another Cracksman or two.

Frankel needs to deliver something top class other than just Cracksman before he can be taken seriously. The Frankels seem to be temperamental in the same mould as the Montjeus.




In Mastercraftsman's first crop he had the 127 rated The Grey Gatsby, Kingston Hill and Amazing Maria. All from a crop conceived at a fee of €15,000 in comparison to Frankel's opening fee of £125,000. Frankel has plenty to prove.

antietam

Deleted User wrote: »

A few comments on various topics:

STS isn't 'certainly doing a bit better' than Frankel at stud. Check this link. These things are measured. Last year Frankel was 6th in all sires standing in Europe by global earnings. From 2 crops. STS was 8th from 5 crops.

My actual opinion on Frankel as a sire is that it is quite obviously too soon to tell. I was of the opinion he would have a big year this year and he still might, but I would not be so sure right now. However the common enough opinion that he has been ordinary and has flopped or whatever is obviously not true. There are facts relating to all these things and I am surprised more people don't look them up, racing is a global industry so the idea that a sire is measured on whether one of their first progeny won one of 'our' classics is pretty narrow-minded.

On Frankel as a horse there seems to be a weird belief that there is something wrong with his trainer choosing his races and plotting his career with care. Any decent trainer does that. There is a pattern for milers in England and he followed it, going up to 10f later in his career. Cecil was always very open about his running plans and he stuck to them. He didn't dodge a single horse in his life, he dodged races that his trainer believed would not suit him. Like, duh. That's the trainer doing his job. It's laughable to crab him for that.

As a side note to that point, given his running plans were there for all to see, you would think every other owner or trainer in europe would be desperate to take a free shot at this over-hyped horse and secure a sky-high rating, a huge scalp and the associated stud fees to match. And yet that didn't happen. Either they didn't show up or they were well beaten.

The one opinion I do respect is the old-fashioned one that says a thoroughbred is supposed to run 1m4f and horses that don't can never be truly considered the absolute best. I don't necessarily agree but I respect the opinion if it is consistently held, I am old-fashioned too. However, I also know greatness when I see it and anyone who looks back at Frankel's career and arrives at 'he was a good horse' or similar really needs to check themselves.

Based on stud fee and absolute quality [top] mares he got what is the average/median value to return based on[ stallions that have contested classics and have performed beyond their stud value].Frankel 2 yr olds hold the current record of having the most runners with headgear first time out.

diomed

diomed wrote: »

But you can argue with that.

It is amazing the things you can do with stallion statistics.
The link above is for worldwide stallion earnings for sires standing in the EU.

Using that selection will exclude Deep Impact (sire of Saxon Warrior) from the 2018 sire statistics, which of course will take out the 2000 Guineas win, and might exclude the English Derby and English St Leger winnings if that horse wins the triple crown.

Frankel is based in the EU and a large part of his 2017 worldwide earnings were Yen 298,247,000 earned in Japan (USD 2,704,864.02).
Most of that was one filly, Soul Stirring (Yen 187,680,000).
Frankel was 68th in Japan in 2017.

I think we need a few more years to form an opinion, and better statistics.

It excludes Deep Impact because nobody is talking about Deep Impact.

The stats were used to compare the performance of STS and Frankel at stud, which was the topic under discussion. They are both standing in the EU and they both produce runners all over the world, I am not sure how the stats I used misrepresent their current performance in any way.

I have already stated it is too soon to tell, which it obviously is.

The Mig

antietam wrote: »

Ive never ever spoke or printed my absolute admiration for a brilliant trainer but most all a genuine gentleman.I got to know him before Indian Skimmer won at the Phoenix Park and was invited [with his party]on the hottest day ever at the Curragh when Commander In Chief won the Derby[he told me a year in advance he would win].Henry Cecil was the nicest/down to earth man I've ever ever had the absolute privilege to know in racing.To answer your reply..you could be right but that is not Henry's fault.

:D:D:D:D:D

danganabu

antietam wrote: »

Ive never ever spoke or printed my absolute admiration for a brilliant trainer but most all a genuine gentleman.I got to know him before Indian Skimmer won at the Phoenix Park and was invited [with his party]on the hottest day ever at the Curragh when Commander In Chief won the Derby[he told me a year in advance he would win].Henry Cecil was the nicest/down to earth man I've ever ever had the absolute privilege to know in racing.To answer your reply..you could be right but that is not Henry's fault.

Just tidied that up a bit for you there antietam, or what ever name you are going by now

BumperD

The Mig wrote: »

:D:D:D:D:D

^^^^^^^^^^ some vintage after timing there in fairness

Peintre Celebre

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It excludes Deep Impact because nobody is talking about Deep Impact.

The stats were used to compare the performance of STS and Frankel at stud, which was the topic under discussion. They are both standing in the EU and they both produce runners all over the world, I am not sure how the stats I used misrepresent their current performance in any way.

I have already stated it is too soon to tell, which it obviously is.

In fairness comparing stallions based on worldwide earnings is a retarded barometer

Peintre Celebre

antietam wrote: »

Ive never ever spoke or printed my absolute admiration for a brilliant trainer but most all a genuine gentleman.I got to know him before Indian Skimmer won at the Phoenix Park and was invited [with his party]on the hottest day ever at the Curragh when Commander In Chief won the Derby[he told me a year in advance he would win].Henry Cecil was the nicest/down to earth man I've ever ever had the absolute privilege to know in racing.To answer your reply..you could be right but that is not Henry's fault.

Your best yet I'd say. JK Rowling would struggle to come up with such fantasy

Fanny Wank

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Your best yet I'd say. JK Rowling would struggle to come up with such fantasy

Never forget the internet acting up

While he has come close since it's the greatest aftertime I think I've seen on this forum

tryfix

Another typically mixed day at the Office for Frankel as his ultra blue-blooded progeny took to the track. Onetime hype horse Mori ( Frankel-Midday ) was given yet another chance by punters in the Gp2 Middleton and of course she let her supporters down like a ton of bricks. Then Zabriske ( a half brother to Arc winner Bago and others ) was ignored by punters at 50/1 and ran a screamer ( considering his past form ) to finish third in the Dante.

Meanwhile over at Salisbury, his Sun Maiden ( out of Midday's dam Midsummer ) destroyed her field in a good time in a novice stakes by 12L. That's a very tasty prospect, particularly in the hands of Michael Stoute.

kiers47

That Frankel x Zarkava 3yo filly is running her second race in the next in Chantilly.
She was impressive on debut.

I wonder what their plans are? This could be a prep for the Diane. Granted she is going to need to come on a bunch between now and then.

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

That Frankel x Zarkava 3yo filly is running her second race in the next in Chantilly.
She was impressive on debut.

I wonder what their plans are? This could be a prep for the Diane. Granted she is going to need to come on a bunch between now and then.

Stuffed.
Looked incredibly one paced in a bad race. Back to the drawing board for her.

diomed

Here is an extract form a very interesting article in Thoroughbred Owner Breeder magazine, May 2018.
The article, "Harder to break through in stallion ranks than on track" is by Dr Statz - John Boyce

Speed AWD BTW %BTW MOR T10
Pivotal 7.9 138 11.3 7.5 126.5
Oasis Dream 7.7 109 10.9 12.2 125.1
Invincible Spirit 7.4 97 8.3 8.0 125.9
Darn Angel 7.8 44 7.2 5.1 124.7
Exceed And Excel 6.8 61 7.0 7.5 121.4
.
Intermediate AWD BTW %BTW MOR T10
Dubawi 9.2 125 15.8 11.3 127.5
Frankel 8.9 21 15.8 22.8 119.9
Dansili 9.5 125 12.1 11.1 127.4
Lope de Vega 8.4 29 10.7 8.9 119.9
Tamayuz 8.7 20 8.8 9.6 116.7
.
Staying AWD BTW %BTW MOR T10
Galileo 10.9 239 16.4 13.8 132.5
Sea The Stars 10.4 45 13.8 17.8 124.8
Teofilo 10.1 60 10.0 8.5 121.3
Mastercraftsman 10.1 32 6.6 4.4 118.4
Beat Hollow 10.0 21 6.5 6.8 118.3

AWD - average winning distance
BTW - black type winners
%BTW - percentage black type winners
MOR - Mares' other runners
T10- - Average Timeform rating top ten runners

You can see that Frankel got the best mares.
They had 22.8% BTW with other sires.
Frankel is getting 15.8% BTW with those mares.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Here is an extract form a very interesting article in Thoroughbred Owner Breeder magazine, May 2018.
The article, "Harder to break through in stallion ranks than on track" is by Dr Statz - John Boyce

Speed AWD BTW %BTW MOR T10
Pivotal 7.9 138 11.3 7.5 126.5
Oasis Dream 7.7 109 10.9 12.2 125.1
Invincible Spirit 7.4 97 8.3 8.0 125.9
Darn Angel 7.8 44 7.2 5.1 124.7
Exceed And Excel 6.8 61 7.0 7.5 121.4
.
Intermediate AWD BTW %BTW MOR T10
Dubawi 9.2 125 15.8 11.3 127.5
Frankel 8.9 21 15.8 22.8 119.9
Dansili 9.5 125 12.1 11.1 127.4
Lope de Vega 8.4 29 10.7 8.9 119.9
Tamayuz 8.7 20 8.8 9.6 116.7
.
Staying AWD BTW %BTW MOR T10
Galileo 10.9 239 16.4 13.8 132.5
Sea The Stars 10.4 45 13.8 17.8 124.8
Teofilo 10.1 60 10.0 8.5 121.3
Mastercraftsman 10.1 32 6.6 4.4 118.4
Beat Hollow 10.0 21 6.5 6.8 118.3

AWD - average winning distance
BTW - black type winners
%BTW - percentage black type winners
MOR - Mares' other runners
T10- - Average Timeform rating top ten runners

You can see that Frankel got the best mares.
They had 22.8% BTW with other sires.
Frankel is getting 15.8% BTW with those mares.

Frankel is only a second season Sire so that Intermediate categorisation based on winning distances looks like it won't last. In my book long-term he's more of a staying sire than Mastercraftsman or Teofilo are. Frankel outsped his own Dosage Index figure but he's transmitting plenty of stamina which shows up in the Dosage Index of most of his stock.

His best stock are already best at 10f plus. He's a useful boost to the efforts to make stock with stamina more attractive to produce for sellers.

MichaelR

Question - what happened to Tanino Frankel and the Epsom Derby? Some older articles say he was entered for the 2018 Epsom Derby but I can find nothing from 2018 at all on him and there are no odds on him offered. Was he pulled? Did he fail some hurdle?

kiers47

There are literally hundreds of horses entered for the derby at entry stage. Owners and trainers can keep them in at the various cut off stages. I have no figures on it but I would say only 5% of horses entered at the earliest entry stage actually run. So it is not really a surprise for a horse not to be running in the derby. The horse you mention I have no idea about. It looks like he ran one race in Japan a few weeks ago. Finished last of 17.

Itziger

MichaelR wrote: »

Question - what happened to Tanino Frankel and the Epsom Derby? Some older articles say he was entered for the 2018 Epsom Derby but I can find nothing from 2018 at all on him and there are no odds on him offered. Was he pulled? Did he fail some hurdle?

Fail some hurdle? More like jumped one given his flat form this year.

tryfix

Itziger wrote: »

Fail some hurdle? More like jumped one given his flat form this year.

Don't think his form is necessarily that awful this year. Every horse is entitled to bomb out in a race or two before being written off.

From what I can gather this year he has run 4 times. First time up he finished 3rd on firm ground, then he finished 4th in a listed race on firm ground, then he won a race on Soft Ground, and finally he bombed out in a GP2 on firm ground.

On good, soft or heavy ground his record is 2131

http://www.jbis.jp/horse/0001228783/record/


Strangely enough he seems to have lost weight since his 2yo days. He weighed 528 kg on his 2yo debut and on his last run he weighed 524 . That sounds fairly weird to me.

tryfix

What can be said about Elarqam?

He didn't look like a world beater in the English 2,000 and he was very far off that form in today's Irish 2,000. It was a bad blow to hopes that Frankel's reputation would rely less and less on Cracksman's one off excellence.

It wasn't all bad today for Frankel. At Haydock The Grand Visir looked like a future Welsh National winner when managing to get his enormous frame into gear over 2 miles and at Goodwood Emaraaty who has flopped previously ran a very good second today over 7f while Mirage Dancer took a listed 1m4f race there.

That Weekender that ran in the stayers race at Sandown on Thursday is another big boy. Frankel really does get some massive lumps of horses that will make interesting stayers if they can be kept sound.

Mgoraf

The breeders who are sending these mares to him for 175k a pop don't won't stayers or a horse who'll be gelded and running over hurdles.

It's early days of course but with the quality of mare he has had he should be producing better.

I imagine his fee will be going downward in the next few years.

Itziger

tryfix wrote: »

What can be said about Elarqam?

He didn't look like a world beater in the English 2,000 and he was very far off that form in today's Irish 2,000. It was a bad blow to hopes that Frankel's reputation would rely less and less on Cracksman's one off excellence.

It wasn't all bad today for Frankel. At Haydock The Grand Visir looked like a future Welsh National winner when managing to get his enormous frame into gear over 2 miles and at Goodwood Emaraaty who has flopped previously ran a very good second today over 7f while Mirage Dancer took a listed 1m4f race there.

That Weekender that ran in the stayers race at Sandown on Thursday is another big boy. Frankel really does get some massive lumps of horses that will make interesting stayers if they can be kept sound.

Tryfix, is this tongue-in-cheek? One of the best milers ever, if we're to believe our English friends anyway, who gets the top mares produces big stayers!

tryfix

Itziger wrote: »

Tryfix, is this tongue-in-cheek? One of the best milers ever, if we're to believe our English friends anyway, who gets the top mares produces big stayers!

Ah yeah it's tongue in cheek and also the gist of it is absolutely true. That Grand Visir and Weekender are big auld gangly tanks of staying horses without much in the way of gear changes ( exactly what you'd want in a horse that you wanted to send jump racing over 3m+ )

It would be churlish to deny the brilliance of Frankel over a mile, but he most certainly wasn't meant to be a pure miler on breeding. In fact his dosage index at 0.67 is that of an Ascot Gold Cup horse. His grand dam Rainbow lake won a Lancashire Oaks and produced top 12f horses such as Riposte, Powerscourt, Last Train etc who ran at all kinds of distances from 10f-20f

Frankel's own brilliance could deny his own breeding on the track but as a Sire he can only transmit what he inherited from his own pedigree. Frankel has had 4 winners from 7 runners over 14f+. That's a 57% strike rate over extreme distances and his oldest stock are only 4yos.

The biggest flaw that I can see in Frankel's progeny is that you never quite know what to expect from them. That Weekender has a nice DI of 1.00 which should make him an 10 to 12f horse but he stays at least 2m already.

I think the Frankel's need to be given time to mature before they are soured by running them before they have gotten their act together.

Inion An Ri

Emaraaty is by Dubawi.

tryfix

Inion An Ri wrote: »

Emaraaty is by Dubawi.

Oops, my bad.

Don't know why but I had the notion he was by Frankel when he flopped in the Dewhurst.

kiers47

Frankel also has what will likely be the fav for the St James's Palace stakes when Saxon Warrior likely deflects after Epsom in without parole. Put up a very good performance in sandown I thought.

Gringo180

Frankel has a shed load of stamina anyways its no surprise to see him produce staying types, its a pity they didnt try him over a mile and a half in his racing career.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

Frankel also has what will likely be the fav for the St James's Palace stakes when Saxon Warrior likely deflects after Epsom in without parole. Put up a very good performance in sandown I thought.

Saw that race, I thought the second Gabr ( seasonal debut ) looked like he would come on a ton for the race.

I'd be very happy to see Without Parole start as favourite in the St James Palace Stakes. I love a race where there's what I would regard as a false favourite. His Sandown win had an rpr of 110. He needs to improve 10-12lb to win at Ascot.