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Cheltenham 2018 - Day 3

  • 10-03-2018 7:50pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭


    Cheltenham 2018 - Day 3
    Day 3 - Thu 13:30… JLT Novices' Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4f
    Day 3 - Thu 14:10… Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m
    Day 3 - Thu 14:50… Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m5f
    Day 3 - Thu 15:30… Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m
    Day 3 - Thu 16:10… Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m5f
    Day 3 - Thu 16:50… Trull House Stud Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m1f
    Day 3 - Thu 17:30… Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+ 0-145) 3m2f


«1345

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,024 ✭✭✭I says


    Louis vac pouch in the pertemps 9s nrnb PP.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Ryanair could be savage

    UDS Cue Card Douvan Balko des Flos

    If they show up of course. ......
    Awful shame connections pulled WP.

    Sticking with UDS. Bet Ruby will too


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,024 ✭✭✭I says


    Ryanair could be savage

    UDS Cue Card Douvan Balko des Flos

    If they show up of course. ......
    Awful shame connections pulled WP.

    Sticking with UDS. Bet Ruby will too
    No brainer to stick with UDS


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,205 ✭✭✭bren2002


    I posted a similar one in the betting forum,

    Just wondering if anyone is open to a crowd source experiment for predicting a race outcome using tools that we use in the tech world.

    Thank this post and if I get enough interest, probably need about 20 responses, I'll post a link to a spreadsheet and put up the prediction before the race.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Who goes on UDS with Ruby out?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 205 ✭✭Brainz


    Kings socks looks like a good one tomorrow


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,137 ✭✭✭akelly02


    Now that ruby is out , and Uds is odds on, I’m out.

    Cue card , let’s go baby


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,166 ✭✭✭piplip87


    Jaysus after another terrible day. Will go again tomorrow however.

    Going for a JP EW patent tomorrow.

    Modus- You know what I mean Harry- Move with the times.

    Have done Supersundae, Tully East, and Glenloe.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,317 ✭✭✭munster87


    Is there much rain forecast for the course tonight? Any insight on what tomorrow's going will be?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,929 ✭✭✭kopite386


    Did decent enough yesterday today wasn't so great. Got a few singles but Cause of Causes is now on the c**t list. For tomorrow in work I've gone.

    13:30 Terrefort
    14:10 Delta Work
    14:50 UDS
    15:30 SupaSundae
    16:10 The Storyteller
    16:50 Maria's Benefit

    I'll end up doing a few other bets as well


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,205 ✭✭✭bren2002


    bren2002 wrote: »
    I posted a similar one in the betting forum,

    Just wondering if anyone is open to a crowd source experiment for predicting a race outcome using tools that we use in the tech world.

    Thank this post and if I get enough interest, probably need about 20 responses, I'll post a link to a spreadsheet and put up the prediction before the race.

    I've shared a spreadsheet below -
    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Od5MoCztQ5m0uvdFdO3vW6wRdefQ5PNN

    Please compare the horse on the top row in isolation of the paired horse to the left, and enter how you the horse on the top row will do against the other.

    When you're done please email to be at huntingdrizzle@gmail.com
    I'll collate the results and share.

    It's important this is done without comparing with others.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,194 ✭✭✭FatRat


    Who else here thinks that Sam Spinner is something special and nobody has seen his best yet? I think we will be on here tomorrow talking about how spectacular his victory was :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭sdoc13


    16 10.
    Shannahans Turn is an insane price at 66s with PP and betfair(if you can get on). As low as 25/1 in some books and a generally 33s.

    Won a galway plate in 2015 off 142 and eat the hill that day. Off 137 tomorrow has had his issues but 66/1 f me thats insane.

    Have has 2 pts each way 5 places 1/5 odds with Paddy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 223 ✭✭dave81


    I was confidently going to back the Storyteller, then Pipe has that King horse who had huge early ability and looks like he still has serious potential. What a great run. I've been burned by pipe for the past 3 years on his plunges.

    Anything Eliiott has touted in handicaps has been routed!! Storyteller was my nap last year and biggest backed antepost. He is treated alright here and some great form. Anyone in the Storyteller camp?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    dave81 wrote: »
    I was confidently going to back the Storyteller, then Pipe has that King horse who had huge early ability and looks like he still has serious potential. What a great run. I've been burned by pipe for the past 3 years on his plunges.

    Anything Eliiott has touted in handicaps has been routed!! Storyteller was my nap last year and biggest backed antepost. He is treated alright here and some great form. Anyone in the Storyteller camp?

    Me! All over it AP, outside of Monalee (:() The Storyteller is my biggest bet/fancy of the week. It probably no coincidence his form ties in with some of Monalee's.

    Pipes the only horse i fear actually.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Shemale


    akelly02 wrote: »
    Now that ruby is out , and Uds is odds on, I’m out.

    Cue card , let’s go baby

    It would be a terrible state of affairs if Cue Card won this.

    Given the ground and opposition(assuming Douvan doesn't line up) I think UDS could win by 10L +


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,952 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    FatRat wrote: »
    Who else here thinks that Sam Spinner is something special and nobody has seen his best yet? I think we will be on here tomorrow talking about how spectacular his victory was :)

    I think we may well be...
    looks like he could be a bit better than the rest alright.
    paddy going 10/11 three places looks an absolute gift to me.

    him and uds please :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 620 ✭✭✭WickIow Brave


    Shanemac28 wrote: »
    HUUUUUGE talk going around Carlow here today about Salsaretta in the mares novice tomorrow.

    Apparently Townend is struggling to pick between the two because Laurina hasn't travelled well at all, and because Salsaretta is firing on all cylinders. Proven by the fact they are sending her over for her first run.

    My advice, whichever method is preferred, either lay Laurina at a short price or back Salsaretta at a big price, Betfair exchange probably best place at the moment. I have currently layed Laurina @ 1.68 and backed Salsaretta @ 17.5.

    Are you tryna get a price on Laurina?


  • Registered Users Posts: 223 ✭✭dave81


    Slattsy wrote: »
    Me! All over it AP, outside of Monalee (:() The Storyteller is my biggest bet/fancy of the week. It probably no coincidence his form ties in with some of Monalee's.

    Pipes the only horse i fear actually.

    Good man Slattsy, it'll hopefully pay for the hair cut and all those pints.

    My first dry Cheltenham since I was 18. Fupping work. I'm going up the fupping walls. I've realised that having an opinion is so much more craic when I'm drinking.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Shemale


    Anyone backing in this just be wary, I have no idea if Douvan is still entered in the Ryanair as some bookies have him priced up and others don't.

    Before you back a horse in the market check for Douvan as you might be hit by a 35% rule 4


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Shemale


    Are you tryna get a price on Laurina?

    Similar posts in two other thread, I flagged it to the mods.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Shemale wrote: »
    Similar posts in two other thread, I flagged it to the mods.

    Rat!! :D

    I see we've lost a Mod.


  • Registered Users Posts: 223 ✭✭dave81


    I really like Forza Milan in Pertemps. I cannot make any case as to why he would turn things around with Louis vac. I just think that he will. I have tried and both have course and ground form. Form lines solid and holding firm

    If you fancy Sam Spinner, keep an eye on Louis. Form line with him from November Chel meeting.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭sdoc13


    Few quid for Dovan on the exchange. Looking more likely he will run.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,137 ✭✭✭akelly02


    Shemale wrote: »
    It would be a terrible state of affairs if Cue Card won this.

    Given the ground and opposition(assuming Douvan doesn't line up) I think UDS could win by 10L +


    I don’t think Townend will be able to preserve enough energy on Uds

    Hence cue card


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    sdoc13 wrote: »
    Few quid for Dovan on the exchange. Looking more likely he will run.

    Matt Chapman said on Twitter earlier he is a non runner


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Shattered Love for me tomorrow in the JLT.

    Irish horses way ahead in this division if the RSA is a good pointer. SL getting 7lbs off everything, a lot of rain due, she wants soft or heavy and stays 3 miles. Massive chance!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,137 ✭✭✭gazza1


    1.30 kemboy ew
    2.10 Delta Work ew
    2.50 UDS
    3.30 Lami Serge ew
    4.10 Kings Socks ew
    4.50 Larina
    5.30 The young MASTER ew

    BOL


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    Slattsy wrote: »
    Shattered Love for me tomorrow in the JLT.

    Irish horses way ahead in this division if the RSA is a good pointer. SL getting 7lbs off everything, a lot of rain due, she wants soft or heavy and stays 3 miles. Massive chance!!

    Am all in on this since last week. The price is after contracting a fair bit but there is still a bit of juice there 8/1 or so.
    Hopefully she runs a cracker. There is something about a good mare jumping fences against the geldings. :)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    I am by no means a big Mullins fan or backer but to me he seems to have 3/4 great chances tomorrow with invitation only uds laurina and penhill in the stayers


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,089 ✭✭✭Happy4all


    is Apples Jade likely to run tomorrow?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,288 ✭✭✭Fanny Wank


    sdoc13 wrote: »
    Few quid for Dovan on the exchange. Looking more likely he will run.

    People manipulating the market, the shorter it goes the bigger the reduction factor

    I've seen it to the other way too, horse drifts massively (though usually in a far less liquid morning market) to minimise the reduction factor


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 88,244 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    Delta Work and Terrefort and Salsaretta e/w


  • Registered Users Posts: 503 ✭✭✭dk6dk6


    Happy4all wrote: »
    is Apples Jade likely to run tomorrow?

    No


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,966 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    Could be a bit of a landmine day tomorrow - few picks (haven't stake any as of yet so may edit first thing in the morning).

    JLT - Invitation Only 3/1
    Ryanair - Balko Des Flos 15/2 (ew)
    Stayers Hurdle - Penhill 12/1 (ew)
    Brown Advisory - Tully East 11/1 (ew)
    Mares Novices Hurdle - High School Days 33/1 (ew)
    Kim Muir - Squouateur 5/1 & The Young Master 14/1 (ew)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,006 ✭✭✭EICVD


    Slattsy wrote: »
    Shattered Love for me tomorrow in the JLT.

    Irish horses way ahead in this division if the RSA is a good pointer. SL getting 7lbs off everything, a lot of rain due, she wants soft or heavy and stays 3 miles. Massive chance!!

    I like your thinking Slattsy, my bet of the day tomorrow. Quite fancy that Last Goodbye in the plate, impressive the last day at Leopardstown


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,129 ✭✭✭finglashoop


    Shattered Love
    15/2
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
    14:10 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 7f 213y - Each Way
    Louis Vac Pouch
    8/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 6 Places
    14:50 EVENT 2m 4f 166y - Each Way
    Cue Card
    9/2
    E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
    15:30 EVENT 2m 7f 213y - Each Way
    Unowhatimeanharry
    8/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
    16:10 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 4f 166y - Each Way
    Splash of Ginge
    33/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 5 Places
    16:50 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 0f 179y - Each Way
    Marias Benefit
    7/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
    17:30 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 2f 0y - Each Way
    Millanisi Boy
    18/1

    .10c ew super heinz


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,022 ✭✭✭jamesbere


    My bets for today

    13:30 Terrefort
    14:10 Who dares wins e/w
    15:30 Supersundae e/w
    16;10 Mercian Prince e/w
    16:50 Marias Benefit e/w

    Lucky 15 e/w
    Terrefort
    Who dares wins
    Supersundae
    Marias Benefit

    I'll see about the last race, I'm tempted by a couple so i'll make a decision after second race

    Good luck to all


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,137 ✭✭✭akelly02


    Setting off from tullamore at this ungodly hour, bring on cheltenham!

    Gonna be hard pick them today, anyone think Maria’s benefit can rattle Laurina?

    Like shattered love but something is stopping me from pulling the trigger


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 259 ✭✭Claregaafan18


    9 mm of rain overnight in Cheltenham. Going on the new course remains soft, heavy in places.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 45 Roundtd181


    Can see Maria's Benefit 7 or 8 lengths in front heading for the hill and out the back of the telly come the line.

    Lot of love for Shattered Love. Game mare, allowance hopefully makes the difference. Can't have a good few in the field. Modus feable in a finish and has done most of his chasing in small fields. Questions as to whether Benatar will like the undulations of chelt. Prep wise couldn't touch Finians with stolen money. Terrefort flattered by two easy wins against mediocre opposition.

    Come on Shattered Love


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    I think Frodon can give UDS a scare in the Ryanair.

    Back at Cheltenham on heavy heavy ground will suit Frodon more than any other horse running today. UDS probably didn't want all the rain as there must be some doubts over his stamina, even though he's learned to settle better. This will turn into a slog and Frodon could outstay them.

    I backed Sub Lieutenant each way recently but ground gone against him. But hopefully he can sneak a place.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    1.50 JLT

    I've gone with Kemboy (16/1) in the JLT. He's only had the two chase starts but second to Sutton Place on debut isn't a bad start and he's clearly not been gound the bottom of given his easy win on his next start. His 6th in last years Neptune is decent enough form given he was in front of Shattered Love that day. I wouldn't be interested if his price was 10s or under but 16s is a fair price to go to war with here.

    2.10 Pertemps

    Sykes (28/1) doesn't have a progressive profile like the McManus horses but his last three races were career best since moving from Phillip Hobbs to Nicky Martin who ownes the horse. 2nd in a qualifier at Cheltenham beating Taj Baderlanderbad who went out and won a qualifier later, he was sent off 33/1 that day so is continually underestimated. He'll have no concerns with the ground and might have that bit more to come. A big price to go to war with.

    2.50 Ryanair

    Backed Balko Des Flos shrewd like at 12s a month ago, available at 14s today :D. Cue card (13/2) is the bet for me here. He's 12 as we all know but he's lost very little quality based on his last run. 2lbs off Un De Sceax, previous winner of the race, proven on heavy ground, stays further in similar conditions. Based on form alone, he shouldn't be as big as he is. Frodon (11/1) is maybe underestimated here too. He doesn't have much to find either and will love conditions. He's still only 6yo and this could be his day.

    3.30 Stayers

    I see Sam Spinner is the up and coming young horse. I also know L'Ami Serge (12/1) is often difficult. L'Ami serge has once been out of the first 3 in 19 of his 21 starts since arriving from France. He is not deserving of the reputation. He was beaten 3l by the favourite in December but L'Ami Serge is 4 times the price. He could be second favourite.

    4.10 Brown Advisory

    Kings' Odyssey (16/1) finished 3rd in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham and then 3rd again behind Frodon last time with Shantou Flyer, Coo Start Sivola and Casse Tete (winner next time) in there too. He's 9yo and 6 of the 7 market leaders under 20/1 are 7yo or younger. 7 of the last 10 winners of this were aged 8 or older and winners of 66/1 33/1 25/1 50/1 33/1 in those years.

    5.30 Kim Muir

    Final Nudge (20/1) will love conditions, and has a cpable jockey on his back. I give Actinpieces (33/1) chance despite top weight too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 419 ✭✭Blud


    Well why stop now.

    Continuing with my previous strategy, Nicholls horses plus a SH plus some each way or in the without market.

    Nicholls bets, all each way.
    1.30 Modus
    2.10 Connetable
    2.50 Frodon
    3.30 Old Guard
    4.10 Movewiththetimes
    5.30 Braquer Dor

    Super heinz:
    1.30 Shattered Love
    2.10 Glenloe
    2.50 UDS
    3.30 Sam Spinner
    4.10 Tully East
    4.50 Laurina
    5.30 Mall Dini

    Other:
    1.30 Finland Oscar ew, Snow Falcon ew without fave
    2.10 Forza Milan and Taj Badlandabad both ew
    2.50 Cue Card win wo fave
    3.30 Augusta Kate ew
    4.10 Guitar Pete and Quite by Chance, both ew
    4.50 Cap Soleil ew
    5.30 Aubusson and Actinpieces, both ew

    Good luck again folks.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,952 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    John Duggan

    Cheltenham Thursday

    €500 Charity Bet with thanks to Bruce Betting

    Please gamble responsibly!

    3.30 - €75 each way Bacardys - 10/1

    5.30 - €50 each way Final Nudge - 16/1

    1.30 - €25 each way Snow Falcon - 16/1

    2.10 - €25 each way A Great View - 11/1

    2.50 - €25 each way Frodon - 10/1

    4.10 - €25 each way Traffic Fluide - 28/1

    4.50 - €25 each way Salsaretta - 14/1


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,059 ✭✭✭80s Child


    mailburner wrote: »
    John Duggan

    Cheltenham Thursday

    €500 Charity Bet with thanks to Bruce Betting

    Please gamble responsibly!

    3.30 - €75 each way Bacardys - 10/1

    5.30 - €50 each way Final Nudge - 16/1

    1.30 - €25 each way Snow Falcon - 16/1

    2.10 - €25 each way A Great View - 11/1

    2.50 - €25 each way Frodon - 10/1

    4.10 - €25 each way Traffic Fluide - 28/1

    4.50 - €25 each way Salsaretta - 14/1


    Has anyone any idea of how he's doing this week?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,337 ✭✭✭Bandana boy


    80s Child wrote: »
    Has anyone any idea of how he's doing this week?

    Didn't see day 1 but he had samcro and an 8-1 and 10-1 place from 7 bets yesterday


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,952 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    80s Child wrote: »
    Has anyone any idea of how he's doing this week?

    3 on tues, footpad, summerhill boy and rathvinden


  • Registered Users Posts: 375 ✭✭Niallers87


    Hes staking 500 a day and so far hes up to 1320 i think, he did say the bookies refunded him his stake on douvan after he fell as its all going to charity


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭mossym


    80s Child wrote: »
    Has anyone any idea of how he's doing this week?

    no better than anyone here. couple of winners each day


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