Cheltenham 2018 - Day 3

Happy4all

is Apples Jade likely to run tomorrow?

Fanny Wank

sdoc13 wrote: »

Few quid for Dovan on the exchange. Looking more likely he will run.

People manipulating the market, the shorter it goes the bigger the reduction factor

I've seen it to the other way too, horse drifts massively (though usually in a far less liquid morning market) to minimise the reduction factor

JP Liz V1

Delta Work and Terrefort and Salsaretta e/w

dk6dk6

Happy4all wrote: »

is Apples Jade likely to run tomorrow?

No

Gavin "shels"

Could be a bit of a landmine day tomorrow - few picks (haven't stake any as of yet so may edit first thing in the morning).

JLT - Invitation Only 3/1
Ryanair - Balko Des Flos 15/2 (ew)
Stayers Hurdle - Penhill 12/1 (ew)
Brown Advisory - Tully East 11/1 (ew)
Mares Novices Hurdle - High School Days 33/1 (ew)
Kim Muir - Squouateur 5/1 & The Young Master 14/1 (ew)

EICVD

Slattsy wrote: »

Shattered Love for me tomorrow in the JLT.

Irish horses way ahead in this division if the RSA is a good pointer. SL getting 7lbs off everything, a lot of rain due, she wants soft or heavy and stays 3 miles. Massive chance!!

I like your thinking Slattsy, my bet of the day tomorrow. Quite fancy that Last Goodbye in the plate, impressive the last day at Leopardstown

finglashoop

Shattered Love
15/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
14:10 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 7f 213y - Each Way
Louis Vac Pouch
8/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 6 Places
14:50 EVENT 2m 4f 166y - Each Way
Cue Card
9/2
E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
15:30 EVENT 2m 7f 213y - Each Way
Unowhatimeanharry
8/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
16:10 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 4f 166y - Each Way
Splash of Ginge
33/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 5 Places
16:50 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 0f 179y - Each Way
Marias Benefit
7/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
17:30 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 2f 0y - Each Way
Millanisi Boy
18/1

.10c ew super heinz

jamesbere

My bets for today

13:30 Terrefort
14:10 Who dares wins e/w
15:30 Supersundae e/w
16;10 Mercian Prince e/w
16:50 Marias Benefit e/w

Lucky 15 e/w
Terrefort
Who dares wins
Supersundae
Marias Benefit

I'll see about the last race, I'm tempted by a couple so i'll make a decision after second race

Good luck to all

akelly02

Setting off from tullamore at this ungodly hour, bring on cheltenham!

Gonna be hard pick them today, anyone think Maria’s benefit can rattle Laurina?

Like shattered love but something is stopping me from pulling the trigger

Claregaafan18

9 mm of rain overnight in Cheltenham. Going on the new course remains soft, heavy in places.

Roundtd181

Can see Maria's Benefit 7 or 8 lengths in front heading for the hill and out the back of the telly come the line.

Lot of love for Shattered Love. Game mare, allowance hopefully makes the difference. Can't have a good few in the field. Modus feable in a finish and has done most of his chasing in small fields. Questions as to whether Benatar will like the undulations of chelt. Prep wise couldn't touch Finians with stolen money. Terrefort flattered by two easy wins against mediocre opposition.

Come on Shattered Love

Slattsy

I think Frodon can give UDS a scare in the Ryanair.

Back at Cheltenham on heavy heavy ground will suit Frodon more than any other horse running today. UDS probably didn't want all the rain as there must be some doubts over his stamina, even though he's learned to settle better. This will turn into a slog and Frodon could outstay them.

I backed Sub Lieutenant each way recently but ground gone against him. But hopefully he can sneak a place.

Nulty

1.50 JLT

I've gone with Kemboy (16/1) in the JLT. He's only had the two chase starts but second to Sutton Place on debut isn't a bad start and he's clearly not been gound the bottom of given his easy win on his next start. His 6th in last years Neptune is decent enough form given he was in front of Shattered Love that day. I wouldn't be interested if his price was 10s or under but 16s is a fair price to go to war with here.

2.10 Pertemps

Sykes (28/1) doesn't have a progressive profile like the McManus horses but his last three races were career best since moving from Phillip Hobbs to Nicky Martin who ownes the horse. 2nd in a qualifier at Cheltenham beating Taj Baderlanderbad who went out and won a qualifier later, he was sent off 33/1 that day so is continually underestimated. He'll have no concerns with the ground and might have that bit more to come. A big price to go to war with.

2.50 Ryanair

Backed Balko Des Flos shrewd like at 12s a month ago, available at 14s today :D. Cue card (13/2) is the bet for me here. He's 12 as we all know but he's lost very little quality based on his last run. 2lbs off Un De Sceax, previous winner of the race, proven on heavy ground, stays further in similar conditions. Based on form alone, he shouldn't be as big as he is. Frodon (11/1) is maybe underestimated here too. He doesn't have much to find either and will love conditions. He's still only 6yo and this could be his day.

3.30 Stayers

I see Sam Spinner is the up and coming young horse. I also know L'Ami Serge (12/1) is often difficult. L'Ami serge has once been out of the first 3 in 19 of his 21 starts since arriving from France. He is not deserving of the reputation. He was beaten 3l by the favourite in December but L'Ami Serge is 4 times the price. He could be second favourite.

4.10 Brown Advisory

Kings' Odyssey (16/1) finished 3rd in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham and then 3rd again behind Frodon last time with Shantou Flyer, Coo Start Sivola and Casse Tete (winner next time) in there too. He's 9yo and 6 of the 7 market leaders under 20/1 are 7yo or younger. 7 of the last 10 winners of this were aged 8 or older and winners of 66/1 33/1 25/1 50/1 33/1 in those years.

5.30 Kim Muir

Final Nudge (20/1) will love conditions, and has a cpable jockey on his back. I give Actinpieces (33/1) chance despite top weight too.

Blud

Well why stop now.

Continuing with my previous strategy, Nicholls horses plus a SH plus some each way or in the without market.

Nicholls bets, all each way.
1.30 Modus
2.10 Connetable
2.50 Frodon
3.30 Old Guard
4.10 Movewiththetimes
5.30 Braquer Dor

Super heinz:
1.30 Shattered Love
2.10 Glenloe
2.50 UDS
3.30 Sam Spinner
4.10 Tully East
4.50 Laurina
5.30 Mall Dini

Other:
1.30 Finland Oscar ew, Snow Falcon ew without fave
2.10 Forza Milan and Taj Badlandabad both ew
2.50 Cue Card win wo fave
3.30 Augusta Kate ew
4.10 Guitar Pete and Quite by Chance, both ew
4.50 Cap Soleil ew
5.30 Aubusson and Actinpieces, both ew

Good luck again folks.

mailburner

John Duggan

Cheltenham Thursday

€500 Charity Bet with thanks to Bruce Betting

Please gamble responsibly!

3.30 - €75 each way Bacardys - 10/1

5.30 - €50 each way Final Nudge - 16/1

1.30 - €25 each way Snow Falcon - 16/1

2.10 - €25 each way A Great View - 11/1

2.50 - €25 each way Frodon - 10/1

4.10 - €25 each way Traffic Fluide - 28/1

4.50 - €25 each way Salsaretta - 14/1

80s Child

mailburner wrote: »

John Duggan

Cheltenham Thursday

€500 Charity Bet with thanks to Bruce Betting

Please gamble responsibly!

3.30 - €75 each way Bacardys - 10/1

5.30 - €50 each way Final Nudge - 16/1

1.30 - €25 each way Snow Falcon - 16/1

2.10 - €25 each way A Great View - 11/1

2.50 - €25 each way Frodon - 10/1

4.10 - €25 each way Traffic Fluide - 28/1

4.50 - €25 each way Salsaretta - 14/1

Has anyone any idea of how he's doing this week?

Bandana boy

80s Child wrote: »

Has anyone any idea of how he's doing this week?

Didn't see day 1 but he had samcro and an 8-1 and 10-1 place from 7 bets yesterday

mailburner

80s Child wrote: »

Has anyone any idea of how he's doing this week?

3 on tues, footpad, summerhill boy and rathvinden

Niallers87

Hes staking 500 a day and so far hes up to 1320 i think, he did say the bookies refunded him his stake on douvan after he fell as its all going to charity

mossym

80s Child wrote: »

Has anyone any idea of how he's doing this week?

no better than anyone here. couple of winners each day

BumperD

Like the look of Kemboy too. Lightly raced and ran very well against Sutton place fto and seemed to come on for run, best priced 14/1 but 12/1 generally.

Not seeing the angle for shattered love

D.Q

Finally off work so I can actually sit down and enjoy the races today.

piplip87

Have backed two is some races today so
gone for as PP will refund if losing bet to SP fav

1.30 Modus win and Snow Falcon EW
2.10 Sort It Out and Glenloe
3.30 Supasundae and Harry.
4.10 The Storyteller and Movewiththetimes
4.50 Maria's Benefit (money back if 2nd or 3rd to fav)
5.30 Mal Dini.

Have a patent

Invitation only, Tully East, delta work.

Dickerty

mossym wrote: »

no better than anyone here. couple of winners each day

That's a lot better than most! Unless you count people piling in on short favourites...

markc91

Following the trends this week and have mine now picked out for the 2.10 for an ew lucky 15. Any thoughts on it cause I've not seen it mentioned much? Will the ground suit? Form Good? Etc. In work til 1.00 so can't really research much.

Niallers87

It looks liks Snow Falcon is now a non runner.

handsfree2

Invitation only
Thomas Campbell

Wholestone (tentatively)


Maldini

ustari

1.30 - Shattered Love
2.10 - Glenloe
2.50 - cloudy dream
3.30 - Sam Spinner
4.10 - Movewiththetimes
4.50 - Marias Benefit
5.30 - Mall Dini

maximo31

Always find Thursday the toughest day to find winners.
But here it goes anyway!! :

1.30 Shattered Love 6/1
2.10 Mine Now 25/1 / Lovenormoney 25/1
2.50 Fav to win
3.30 Penhill 12/1
4.10 Kings Odyssey 20/1
4.50 Fav to win but EW on High School Days 33/1
5.30 Final Nudge 16/1

Lots of big prices so EW on all.

sdoc13

Todays Darts
1 30 Terrefort Betway 4/1 Both Money Back as a free bet if looses
2 10. Sort it out win 10.5/1 on Beftair Ex
2 50 Cue Card 11//2 Sportingbet
3 30 The new one 19/1 Betfair Ex
4 10 Shanahans Turn 66/1 Trafic Fluide 28/1 both ew 5 places
4 50 Dawn Shadow W/O fav 33/1 Hills
17 30. The young Master 14/1 with betway(offer) 18.5/1 on Betfiar ex

Win Yankee. Terefort/Glenloe/storyteller/ maldini
EW Yankee Thomas Campbell/The New one/Trafic Fluide/The young Master