LongshotValue at Cheltenham

longshotvalue · 07-03-2018 10:26am #1

Going again this year and a couple of NRNB value plays to follow this evening

Earendil · 07-03-2018 10:31am

Your stuff is always worth a read Aidan.

Brock Turnpike · 07-03-2018 10:24pm

Looking forward to this thread, Aidan. Always enjoy your tips.

prettyboy81 · 08-03-2018 10:41am

Look forward to your blog's Aidan.

wardides · 08-03-2018 4:52pm

Still following Identity Thief?!?

longshotvalue · 08-03-2018 5:32pm

wardides wrote: »

Still following Identity Thief?!?

Nope we got our money in good last time and it didn't work out. Could easily change my mind though.

longshotvalue · 08-03-2018 6:24pm

JLT Thursday
I’m a fan of Rathvinden and although they look to be going to the 4 Miler, he would really have a huge chance in this race. I think he is a strong middle distance horse and with superb course form, hopefully sense will prevail. We’ve all seen it before with Patrick saying he love to ride him in the 4 miles but Willie changes his mind last minute. Just for the 20% change we will be sitting on a 40/1 bet on Thursday that price is madness. This is a poor JLT and if he runs he is an 8/1 shot. We have to take the value lying around the street here.
2 Points EW 40/1 365/VC NRNB

longshotvalue · 08-03-2018 6:38pm

Mares Hurdle Tuesday
I’m keeping it simple here. If Midnight Tour runs to her mark here she is no 40/1 shot without Apples Jade. She is the actually the 2nd highest rated here and ran really well in this last year despite getting pushed back at a critical time coming around the final bend. She then ran on well up the hill to be 6th in what was a much stronger race and also won easily of the course next time out. We are getting the big price because she hasn’t been that great this year, but there have been excesses with trip and ground and she still more or less performed to near her mark. 66/1 in the normal market is nowhere near as good as 40/1 in the o/o Apples market considering she is a 4/7 shot.
2 Points EW 40/1 365 w/o Apples Jade

longshotvalue · 08-03-2018 6:50pm

Gold Cup
The first bet I had for this year was Djakadam. No need for much explanation here. He isn’t a 33/1 shot. He travelled well last year until a mistake 2 out and still finished only a couple of lengths down. I’m sure he do much the same this year and hopefully will jump better at the critical stage. His form this year may not look that great but in reality it isn’t much different than other years when he came here and performed. The generally 25/1 is still value, and everything in the field has questions to answer.
1 Point EW 33/1 hills/Sporting

longshotvalue · 13-03-2018 9:58am

5:30
Tycoon Prince was very good last time really given the race and I think he may be better than the fav Any Second Now . He went after the 2 leaders early and paid for it late. He should be suited by this trip has form on soft and 16/1 is definitely a big price.
2 Points win 16/1 Generally
I’ll also go with a small bet of Ibis De Rhue . He strikes me as a horse with plenty of upside having been very lightly raced and being a past festival winner. 25/1 looks worth the risk
1 Point win 25/1 Generally

2:50
Beware the Bear looks almost the only horse sure to stay the trip in this ground. He will have to jump better than he has in the past but the form of his win first time out this year is very good and he won that with a fair bit in hand. I’ve more or less ruled out everything else because of too high marks ground etc.
1 Point win 16/1 Generally

kiers47 · 13-03-2018 10:01am

aidankkk wrote: »

5:30
Tycoon Prince was very good last time really given the race and I think he may be better than the fav Any Second Now . He went after the 2 leaders early and paid for it late. He should be suited by this trip has form on soft and 16/1 is definitely a big price.
2 Points win 16/1 Generally
I’ll also go with a small bet of Ibis De Rhue . He strikes me as a horse with plenty of upside having been very lightly raced and being a past festival winner. 25/1 looks worth the risk
1 Point win 25/1 Generally

2:50
Beware the Bear looks almost the only horse sure to stay the trip in this ground. He will have to jump better than he has in the past but the form of his win first time out this year is very good and he won that with a fair bit in hand. I’ve more or less ruled out everything else because of too high marks ground etc.
1 Point win 16/1 Generally

Im all over Beware the Bear myself.
Best of luck for the week.

ben36 · 13-03-2018 4:18pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Mares Hurdle Tuesday
I’m keeping it simple here. If Midnight Tour runs to her mark here she is no 40/1 shot without Apples Jade. She is the actually the 2nd highest rated here and ran really well in this last year despite getting pushed back at a critical time coming around the final bend. She then ran on well up the hill to be 6th in what was a much stronger race and also won easily of the course next time out. We are getting the big price because she hasn’t been that great this year, but there have been excesses with trip and ground and she still more or less performed to near her mark. 66/1 in the normal market is nowhere near as good as 40/1 in the o/o Apples market considering she is a 4/7 shot.
2 Points EW 40/1 365 w/o Apples Jade

some call that :eek::eek:

goldenboots · 13-03-2018 4:25pm

Super shout on Midnight Tour. Had a couple of € at 99/1 as well as place bet. Cheers.

derra · 13-03-2018 4:32pm

Fair play on Midnight Tour, i haven't a clue about any of it. I am just betting a few pennies on it for interest but that got me back, even if it was a tiny amount. Cheers

13-03-2018 4:37pm

ben36 wrote: »

some call that :eek::eek:

Outstanding! So close aidan but good result anyway

circadian · 13-03-2018 5:01pm

Another good call on Rathvinden!

essgee268 · 13-03-2018 8:17pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Mares Hurdle Tuesday
I’m keeping it simple here. If Midnight Tour runs to her mark here she is no 40/1 shot without Apples Jade. She is the actually the 2nd highest rated here and ran really well in this last year despite getting pushed back at a critical time coming around the final bend. She then ran on well up the hill to be 6th in what was a much stronger race and also won easily of the course next time out. We are getting the big price because she hasn’t been that great this year, but there have been excesses with trip and ground and she still more or less performed to near her mark. 66/1 in the normal market is nowhere near as good as 40/1 in the o/o Apples market considering she is a 4/7 shot.
2 Points EW 40/1 365 w/o Apples Jade

thanks a million was nearly counting money

VanPercy · 13-03-2018 8:45pm

essgee268 wrote: »

thanks a million was nearly counting money

Same! Great posting Adrian... looking forward to your analysis of tomorrow’s races; so close to the mark today; was counting my money in the Mares today until I realised Apple wasn’t the winner! Great call all the same

sdoc13 · 13-03-2018 8:51pm

Superb tipping aidan and I'm sure a few backed rathvinden based on you picking him. Hope you did too n made a right few bob.

longshotvalue · 13-03-2018 9:38pm

sdoc13 wrote: »

Superb tipping aidan and I'm sure a few backed rathvinden based on you picking him. Hope you did too n made a right few bob.

I didn't i decided let him win at 9/2..

longshotvalue · 13-03-2018 9:38pm

sdoc13 wrote: »

Superb tipping aidan and I'm sure a few backed rathvinden based on you picking him. Hope you did too n made a right few bob.

I didn't i decided let him win at 9/2..

sdoc13 · 13-03-2018 9:48pm

aidankkk wrote:

I didn't i decided let him win at 9/2..

Ya that was v skinny did it well though. Patrick gave it a great ride

discodaveirl · 13-03-2018 10:54pm

Done €2 ew on beware the bear (placed 4th) and midnight tour (50/1)... got €41.60 back.

Nice tips man, will be following you for the week...

minibear · 14-03-2018 12:25am

Thanks Aidan. Midnight Tour guaranteed that I'd live to bet another day.

Bozo Skeleton · 14-03-2018 12:44am

Great stuff, yet again, Aidan. I backed all today's selections each way. I tried to back Midnight Tour w/o Apples Jade in Ladbrooks shop, but they told me I could only do it online, so I went 2 points each way at 66-1!
Did Beware The Bear 2 points each way at 16-1 thanks to using 2 matched bet coupons in The Sun rag. Did Tycoon Prince 2 points e/w, and Ibis Du Rheu 1 point e/w with Boyles. Ibis finished 5th, but Boyles were paying 5 places ( though there was a non runner, I hope I don't get stung in the morning)
All that sounds terribly after timey, but it worked out spectacularly well for me thanks to Aidans super picks. And so close to a 66-1 winner. The man is a legend of the forums.

Thou · 14-03-2018 1:04am

Ya great stuff Aidan, on your recommendation Rathvinden and Midnight Tour really made the day, thank you.

longshotvalue · 14-03-2018 9:06am

1:30
I’ve Gone with a bit of potential at a big price here. Minds Eye looks to me as if he will be suited by a decent pace and he got as near as many others to Samcro when 2^nd to him on his debut. He is bigger than I expected in the w/o Samcro market and looks value to get involved here.
1 Point EW 40/1 w/o Samcro Paddy Power / Betfair

longshotvalue · 14-03-2018 9:10am

5:30
I’ve liked Rhinestone for this for a while now and although I would have preferred better ground, it may actually be decent enough by the time the is race comes around. He looked to me as if he will turn that tables with the fav here from the Leopardstown race and ill have to have a bet at 8/1.
1 Point win 8/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 14-03-2018 9:22am

4:10
I’m possibly losing the plot here but I fancied Chic Name earlier this week at 50/1 and im not about to be put off not at 150/1. He looks a dour stayer and although I know nothing about his preparation for this race, his trainer is as shrewd as it gets and I’m hoping he’s not here for a spin. Chic name has very good form on heavy ground and feck it I’ll have to have a bet now that he is such a huge price. Ill actually go with 100/1 with Cause of Causes here as he is a certainty to get in the places and 4 might be important here.
1 Point EW 100/1 ew w/o Cause of Causes Paddy/Betfair

longshotvalue · 14-03-2018 9:56am

4:50
Knight Destroyer looks to be on a good mark here when compared to a horse like Nube Negra at a much shorter price. He looks like one that could be readied for this race and 25/1 looks a bit of value.
1 Point EW 5 places Sky/Lads/Paddy

longshotvalue · 14-03-2018 9:56am

4:50
Knight Destroyer looks to be on a good mark here when compared to a horse like Nube Negra at a much shorter price. He looks like one that could be readied for this race and 25/1 looks a bit of value.
1 Point EW 5 places Sky/Lads/Paddy

longshotvalue · 14-03-2018 10:06am

3:30
Ar Mad is a horse I’ve been a fan of for a long time. He has never really got a proper run at a season but I think there is a big run in him and the trainer thinks he has him right now and he will be suited by the ground. 40/1 w/o Altior looks the bet to me as is have him about that price in the normal market.
1 Point EW 40/1 w/o Altior paddy/betfair

Keano · 14-03-2018 4:23pm

aidankkk wrote: »

4:10
I’m possibly losing the plot here but I fancied Chic Name earlier this week at 50/1 and im not about to be put off not at 150/1. He looks a dour stayer and although I know nothing about his preparation for this race, his trainer is as shrewd as it gets and I’m hoping he’s not here for a spin. Chic name has very good form on heavy ground and feck it I’ll have to have a bet now that he is such a huge price. Ill actually go with 100/1 with Cause of Causes here as he is a certainty to get in the places and 4 might be important here.
1 Point EW 100/1 ew w/o Cause of Causes Paddy/Betfair

Ran a cracking race and looked good for a while!

the whole year inn · 14-03-2018 4:26pm

Keano wrote: »

Ran a cracking race and looked good for a while!

Did it place?

ShaneU · 14-03-2018 4:28pm

the whole year inn wrote: »

Did place.

not with every bookie, bet365 here, absolutely sick.

00benski · 14-03-2018 4:28pm

aidankkk wrote: »

4:10
I’m possibly losing the plot here but I fancied Chic Name earlier this week at 50/1 and im not about to be put off not at 150/1. He looks a dour stayer and although I know nothing about his preparation for this race, his trainer is as shrewd as it gets and I’m hoping he’s not here for a spin. Chic name has very good form on heavy ground and feck it I’ll have to have a bet now that he is such a huge price. Ill actually go with 100/1 with Cause of Causes here as he is a certainty to get in the places and 4 might be important here.
1 Point EW 100/1 ew w/o Cause of Causes Paddy/Betfair

Wow aidan gave us a good run for the money there. Unlucky

Keano · 14-03-2018 4:28pm

PP were only paying 3 places though

Messi19 · 14-03-2018 4:35pm

Unlucky. Great shout though

Chesty08 · 14-03-2018 4:37pm

ShaneU wrote: »

the whole year inn wrote: »

Did place.

not with every bookie, bet365 here, absolutely sick.

Snap. Just caught on the line.

NATLOR · 14-03-2018 4:38pm

ShaneU wrote: »

not with every bookie, bet365 here, absolutely sick.

No bookie paid on 5 places

essgee268 · 14-03-2018 4:43pm

NATLOR wrote: »

No bookie paid on 5 places

it was a Non Hcap so it would take a generous bookie to pay. very enjoyable race he ran a stormer

goldenboots · 14-03-2018 4:56pm

Super tipping again for a horse at such a huge price. Gutted when I saw he was nabbed for fourth

Blud · 15-03-2018 10:18am

170 people online in the horse racing forum, all waiting for Aidan... now annoyed at me.

Hi guys

longshotvalue · 15-03-2018 10:20am

Ryanair Chase 2:50
Cue Card will have more or less his ideal conditions here and I think Un Des Seaux will struggle to stay on this ground. 6/1 is what looks a 2 horse race to me is massive value. If he can run to the same standard as his last race he wins.
3 Points win 6/1 365 /10bet 11/2 elsewhere
4:10
Traffic Fuide has been on my mind for this for ages and even though id prefer better ground, I think he has fair bit in hand from his mark. He caught my eye last time out in the Cue Card race which was the best chase this year . 28/1 is great value
2 Points EW 28/1 5 places Lads/hills/coral/boyles
I’m also going to go with Splash of Ginge who won for us at a huge price in basically the same race earlier this year on the same ground and is only 3lbs higher with bottom weight.
1 Points ew 33/1 5 places 365/paddy/lads and others
3:10
The New One has great form on soft ground and I think he will not know he has been in a race until near the end as they will be going slow enough here. He stays superbly in this ground and just isn’t 16/1 shot.
2 Points win 16/1 Generally
5:30
The Young Master has been on my mind for months for this and he is on a great mark . Although soft ground probably isn’t ideal he will go on it and it should slow the race down which will help him. I think he will stay on past most of these at the end, He caught the eye behind Fountains Windfall at Ascot jumping left all the time and if he can reproduce that run of this mark going lefthanded he will be right in the firing line at the finish.
2 Points win 16/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 15-03-2018 10:52am

2:10
Whataknight on the face of it runs better on good ground, but he has one piece of form on soft that impresses me when I watch the replay. He was a hardworking 2^nd at Doncaster after fighting of a number of other horses. That was off 6 lbs higher and of this mark and after a break I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran well here at a huge price.
1 Point EW 66/1 5 places ¼ place 365/lads/coral

Cherry_Cola · 15-03-2018 2:26pm

aidankkk wrote: »

2:10
Whataknight on the face of it runs better on good ground, but he has one piece of form on soft that impresses me when I watch the replay. He was a hardworking 2^nd at Doncaster after fighting of a number of other horses. That was off 6 lbs higher and of this mark and after a break I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran well here at a huge price.
1 Point EW 66/1 5 places ¼ place 365/lads/coral

Did this get 6th? Seemed to from commentators but Paddy who were paying 6 places have it as a loss for me.

Cherry_Cola · 15-03-2018 2:27pm

PrettyBoy wrote: »

Paddy paid for me.

Will give it some time and see if it's corrected.

4068ac1elhodqr · 15-03-2018 2:28pm

PP have it marked as [L] on my on-line receipt currently.

BrianBoru00 · 15-03-2018 2:30pm

Cherry_Cola wrote: »

Did this get 6th? Seemed to from commentators but Paddy who were paying 6 places have it as a loss for me.

No 7th, 6th at the last but was overtaken for 6th just before the line

Sultan of Bling · 15-03-2018 2:30pm

Cherry_Cola wrote:

Did this get 6th? Seemed to from commentators but Paddy who were paying 6 places have it as a loss for me.

Thought it came 7th

kiers47 · 15-03-2018 2:34pm

A Great View came 6th

LongshotValue at Cheltenham

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