LongshotValue at Cheltenham

longshotvalue

Going again this year and a couple of NRNB value plays to follow this evening

Earendil

Your stuff is always worth a read Aidan.

Brock Turnpike

Looking forward to this thread, Aidan. Always enjoy your tips.

prettyboy81

Look forward to your blog's Aidan.

wardides

Still following Identity Thief?!?

longshotvalue

wardides wrote: »

Still following Identity Thief?!?

Nope we got our money in good last time and it didn't work out. Could easily change my mind though.

longshotvalue

JLT Thursday
I’m a fan of Rathvinden and although they look to be going to the 4 Miler, he would really have a huge chance in this race. I think he is a strong middle distance horse and with superb course form, hopefully sense will prevail. We’ve all seen it before with Patrick saying he love to ride him in the 4 miles but Willie changes his mind last minute. Just for the 20% change we will be sitting on a 40/1 bet on Thursday that price is madness. This is a poor JLT and if he runs he is an 8/1 shot. We have to take the value lying around the street here.
2 Points EW 40/1 365/VC NRNB

longshotvalue

Mares Hurdle Tuesday
I’m keeping it simple here. If Midnight Tour runs to her mark here she is no 40/1 shot without Apples Jade. She is the actually the 2nd highest rated here and ran really well in this last year despite getting pushed back at a critical time coming around the final bend. She then ran on well up the hill to be 6th in what was a much stronger race and also won easily of the course next time out. We are getting the big price because she hasn’t been that great this year, but there have been excesses with trip and ground and she still more or less performed to near her mark. 66/1 in the normal market is nowhere near as good as 40/1 in the o/o Apples market considering she is a 4/7 shot.
2 Points EW 40/1 365 w/o Apples Jade

longshotvalue

Gold Cup
The first bet I had for this year was Djakadam. No need for much explanation here. He isn’t a 33/1 shot. He travelled well last year until a mistake 2 out and still finished only a couple of lengths down. I’m sure he do much the same this year and hopefully will jump better at the critical stage. His form this year may not look that great but in reality it isn’t much different than other years when he came here and performed. The generally 25/1 is still value, and everything in the field has questions to answer.
1 Point EW 33/1 hills/Sporting

longshotvalue

5:30
Tycoon Prince was very good last time really given the race and I think he may be better than the fav Any Second Now . He went after the 2 leaders early and paid for it late. He should be suited by this trip has form on soft and 16/1 is definitely a big price.
2 Points win 16/1 Generally
I’ll also go with a small bet of Ibis De Rhue . He strikes me as a horse with plenty of upside having been very lightly raced and being a past festival winner. 25/1 looks worth the risk
1 Point win 25/1 Generally
 
2:50
Beware the Bear looks almost the only horse sure to stay the trip in this ground. He will have to jump better than he has in the past but the form of his win first time out this year is very good and he won that with a fair bit in hand. I’ve more or less ruled out everything else because of too high marks ground etc.
1 Point win 16/1 Generally

kiers47

aidankkk wrote: »

5:30
Tycoon Prince was very good last time really given the race and I think he may be better than the fav Any Second Now . He went after the 2 leaders early and paid for it late. He should be suited by this trip has form on soft and 16/1 is definitely a big price.
2 Points win 16/1 Generally
I’ll also go with a small bet of Ibis De Rhue . He strikes me as a horse with plenty of upside having been very lightly raced and being a past festival winner. 25/1 looks worth the risk
1 Point win 25/1 Generally
 
2:50
Beware the Bear looks almost the only horse sure to stay the trip in this ground. He will have to jump better than he has in the past but the form of his win first time out this year is very good and he won that with a fair bit in hand. I’ve more or less ruled out everything else because of too high marks ground etc.
1 Point win 16/1 Generally

Im all over Beware the Bear myself.
Best of luck for the week.

ben36

aidankkk wrote: »

Mares Hurdle Tuesday
I’m keeping it simple here. If Midnight Tour runs to her mark here she is no 40/1 shot without Apples Jade. She is the actually the 2nd highest rated here and ran really well in this last year despite getting pushed back at a critical time coming around the final bend. She then ran on well up the hill to be 6th in what was a much stronger race and also won easily of the course next time out. We are getting the big price because she hasn’t been that great this year, but there have been excesses with trip and ground and she still more or less performed to near her mark. 66/1 in the normal market is nowhere near as good as 40/1 in the o/o Apples market considering she is a 4/7 shot.
2 Points EW 40/1 365 w/o Apples Jade

some call that :eek::eek:

goldenboots

Super shout on Midnight Tour. Had a couple of € at 99/1 as well as place bet. Cheers.

derra

Fair play on Midnight Tour, i haven't a clue about any of it. I am just betting a few pennies on it for interest but that got me back, even if it was a tiny amount. Cheers

ben36

ben36 wrote: »

some call that :eek::eek:

Outstanding! So close aidan but good result anyway

circadian

Another good call on Rathvinden!

essgee268

aidankkk wrote: »

Mares Hurdle Tuesday
I’m keeping it simple here. If Midnight Tour runs to her mark here she is no 40/1 shot without Apples Jade. She is the actually the 2nd highest rated here and ran really well in this last year despite getting pushed back at a critical time coming around the final bend. She then ran on well up the hill to be 6th in what was a much stronger race and also won easily of the course next time out. We are getting the big price because she hasn’t been that great this year, but there have been excesses with trip and ground and she still more or less performed to near her mark. 66/1 in the normal market is nowhere near as good as 40/1 in the o/o Apples market considering she is a 4/7 shot.
2 Points EW 40/1 365 w/o Apples Jade

thanks a million was nearly counting money

VanPercy

essgee268 wrote: »

thanks a million was nearly counting money

Same! Great posting Adrian... looking forward to your analysis of tomorrow’s races; so close to the mark today; was counting my money in the Mares today until I realised Apple wasn’t the winner! Great call all the same

sdoc13

Superb tipping aidan and I'm sure a few backed rathvinden based on you picking him. Hope you did too n made a right few bob.

longshotvalue

sdoc13 wrote: »

Superb tipping aidan and I'm sure a few backed rathvinden based on you picking him. Hope you did too n made a right few bob.

sdoc13 wrote: »

Superb tipping aidan and I'm sure a few backed rathvinden based on you picking him. Hope you did too n made a right few bob.

I didn't i decided  let him win at 9/2..

longshotvalue

sdoc13 wrote: »

Superb tipping aidan and I'm sure a few backed rathvinden based on you picking him. Hope you did too n made a right few bob.

sdoc13 wrote: »

Superb tipping aidan and I'm sure a few backed rathvinden based on you picking him. Hope you did too n made a right few bob.

I didn't i decided  let him win at 9/2..

sdoc13

aidankkk wrote:

I didn't i decided let him win at 9/2..

Ya that was v skinny did it well though. Patrick gave it a great ride

discodaveirl

Done €2 ew on beware the bear (placed 4th) and midnight tour (50/1)... got €41.60 back.


Nice tips man, will be following you for the week...

minibear

Thanks Aidan. Midnight Tour guaranteed that I'd live to bet another day.

Bozo Skeleton

Great stuff, yet again, Aidan. I backed all today's selections each way. I tried to back Midnight Tour w/o Apples Jade in Ladbrooks shop, but they told me I could only do it online, so I went 2 points each way at 66-1!
Did Beware The Bear 2 points each way at 16-1 thanks to using 2 matched bet coupons in The Sun rag. Did Tycoon Prince 2 points e/w, and Ibis Du Rheu 1 point e/w with Boyles. Ibis finished 5th, but Boyles were paying 5 places ( though there was a non runner, I hope I don't get stung in the morning)
All that sounds terribly after timey, but it worked out spectacularly well for me thanks to Aidans super picks. And so close to a 66-1 winner. The man is a legend of the forums.

Thou

Ya great stuff Aidan, on your recommendation Rathvinden and Midnight Tour really made the day, thank you.

longshotvalue

1:30
I’ve Gone with a bit of potential at a big price here. Minds Eye looks to me as if he will be suited by a decent pace and he got as near as many others to Samcro when 2^nd to him on his debut. He is bigger than I expected in the w/o Samcro market and looks value to get involved here.
1 Point EW 40/1 w/o Samcro Paddy Power / Betfair

longshotvalue

5:30
I’ve liked Rhinestone for this for a while now and although I would have preferred better ground, it may actually be decent enough by the time the is race comes around. He looked to me as if he will turn that tables with the fav here from the Leopardstown race and ill have to have a bet at 8/1.
1 Point win 8/1 Generally

longshotvalue

4:10
I’m possibly losing the plot here but I fancied Chic Name earlier this week at 50/1 and im not about to be put off not at 150/1. He looks a dour stayer and although I know nothing about his preparation for this race, his trainer is as shrewd as it gets and I’m hoping he’s not here for a spin. Chic name has very good form on heavy ground and feck it I’ll have to have a bet now that he is such a huge price. Ill actually go with 100/1 with Cause of Causes here as he is a certainty to get in the places and 4 might be important here.
1 Point EW 100/1 ew w/o Cause of Causes Paddy/Betfair

longshotvalue

4:50
Knight Destroyer looks to be on a good mark here when compared to a horse like Nube Negra at a much shorter price. He looks like one that could be readied for this race and 25/1 looks a bit of value.
1 Point EW 5 places Sky/Lads/Paddy

longshotvalue

4:50
Knight Destroyer looks to be on a good mark here when compared to a horse like Nube Negra at a much shorter price. He looks like one that could be readied for this race and 25/1 looks a bit of value.
1 Point EW 5 places Sky/Lads/Paddy