What IS the future of Europe?

dxhound2005 · 05-03-2018 02:44AM

I expect everything will work out fine in the end. It usually does.

drillyeye · 05-03-2018 02:45AM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

I expect everything will work out fine in the end. It usually does.

Well I'll spoil it for you, we all end up dead. Always do

dxhound2005 · 05-03-2018 02:46AM

drillyeye wrote: »

Well I'll spoil it for you, we all end up dead. Always do

That's the first bit of sense from you. Good morning.

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-03-2018 02:54AM

drillyeye wrote: »

Exactly. That's a timebomb en route.

And I still say that an anglo-alliance in some form will happen between the USA and UK, so add the corporation tax problem (the thing that keeps our economy alive) and you've got a whopper on our hands.

Indeed, it's an instant +5-10% rise in unemployment for a start.

The uk could well strike up a free market between can-aus-nz-us if they really wanted, and partial-free market with India.

Anyone from the UK (or Ire) could swap roles or lifestyles with folks in those places a lot easier than trying to do so in mainland eu, purely due to the language barrier(s).

drillyeye · 05-03-2018 03:00AM

Owen Shapely Swinger wrote: »

Indeed, it's an instant +5-10% rise in unemployment for a start.

The uk could well strike up a free market between can-aus-nz-us if they really wanted, and partial-free market with India.

Anyone from the UK (or Ire) could swap roles or lifestyles with folks in those places a lot easier than trying to do so in mainland eu, purely due to the language barrier(s).

We're a bit of an oddball in Europe all round.

We don't really speak foreign languages, but the only English speaking country (soon).

Relatively successful economically, but much of that is due to American companies.

Our closest strategic ally and trading partner is the UK, certainly no history with any other country in Europe that comes close.

We will be right out there on the edge of Europe on our own as an island.

To be honest, you have to ask yourself how the hell Ireland is related to the EU at all. I mean, if you made a list of weakest links, is there any other country as separate as us?

greencap · 05-03-2018 03:05AM

pumpkin4life wrote: »

Britain left it.

Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Austria are more in the telling the Europe to fùck off mood with all this immigration bullshìt.

The National Front made their biggest gains in the last election; the second party in France now an anti-EU party.

Italy today had elections where the biggest party in parliament now is anti-EU.

Nigel Farage is giving talks to people about Irexit and people are turning up to them. Those talks are in demand now and weren't happening a few years ago.

Irish people are go along to get along, hate people who do better then them, love to be told what to do kind of people. We will be one of the last countries to leave.

But still, and if there's any fùcking around with the corporate tax rate and the border, things will change quickly.

Ten years.

Poland? Would you stop.

Polands received billions in infrastructural investment from the EU. And Poles are all over the gaff as you can see. The country is on a steady upward trend thanks to the EU.

We all feel like telling others to fck off and then storming out, but we can't always.

Sense gets in the way.

And that same sense will keep the moany holes from voting to leave.
Cause they know that however sht it is inside the EU, its just going to be as bad or worse outside.

People do have legit reasons to moan. So there'll be reforms, but no breakup.

Its Purge Time · 05-03-2018 03:10AM

greencap wrote: »

Poland? Would you stop.

Polands received billions in infrastructural investment from the EU. And Poles are all over the gaff as you can see. The country is on a steady upward trend thanks to the EU.

We all feel like telling others to fck off and then storming out, but we can't always.

Sense gets in the way.

And that same sense will keep the moany holes from voting to leave.
Cause they know that however sht it is inside the EU, its just going to be as bad or worse outside.

People do have legit reasons to moan. So there'll be reforms, but no breakup.

But the Poles are telling the EU to **** off. They don't want any of Merkel's children and if the Fuhrer forces the issue the Poles will remind her Germany owes about a trillion euros in war reparations.

Hopefully sense will prevail and the old Nazi Merkel will give up.

Casualsingby · 05-03-2018 03:11AM

drillyeye wrote: »

There is no way the UK are just going to isolate themselves forever, its just not going to happen. The same way we cant distance ourselves from their choices and influence.

In a sequence of events, heres one to consider, that after the UK and USA have their agreements made, there will be a f*ck ton of pressure put on Ireland via the multinationals that our economy subsists upon, and we'll be coerced into joining their new group too. What leverage does the EU have over us??

But I thought the EU were bullies? Now you're saying the UK and USA alliance(still haven't explained what the alliance is) will bully Ireland in to joining them or we'll lose money if we don't.

And the UK are our closest strategic ally throughout history and no other country has come close? Yeah 800 years of genocide and invading us, you're right nó other country has come close. Don't be so defeatist about your own country, we're not their lap dogs anymore.if you love them so much and have such an infinity for the UK move there and try start your crazy little alliance with America.

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-03-2018 03:12AM

drillyeye wrote: »

We're a bit of an oddball in Europe all round.

We don't really speak foreign languages, but the only English speaking country (soon).

Relatively successful economically, but much of that is due to American companies.

Our closest strategic ally and trading partner is the UK, certainly no history with any other country in Europe that comes close.

We will be right out there on the edge of Europe on our own as an island.

To be honest, you have to ask yourself how the hell Ireland is related to the EU at all. I mean, if you made a list of weakest links, is there any other country as separate as us?

If there was free open access to travel and work across us-can-aus-nz, am sure folks would jump at it rather than going to cities with slightly too many consonants in their name, and slightly odd food.

The big issue would be Ire would only be equal to nz, and among 4 other bigger players. Then again have an independent Scotland (and maybe wales) in the mix, then things balance out slightly better.

After Brexit it's an 8-hr boat trip, or couple of hours in the sky to the EU.
Only Finland, Greece or some of the very small med' islands are as remote.

greencap · 05-03-2018 03:15AM

Owen Shapely Swinger wrote: »

Indeed, it's an instant +5-10% rise in unemployment for a start.

The uk could well strike up a free market between can-aus-nz-us if they really wanted, and partial-free market with India.

Anyone from the UK (or Ire) could swap roles or lifestyles with folks in those places a lot easier than trying to do so in mainland eu, purely due to the language barrier(s).

The whole anglosphere nonsense, how many times I've heard it.

The US used to be in the mix too. Then they realised Donnie doesn't give a small one about them.

Canada won't be in there either. Its already in bed with the EU, and Quebec won't have anything to do with such an Anglo-centric entity.

Theres already a commonwealth*. Dont think there'll be a redundant commonwealth 2.0 needed.

*Which has a gdp p.c. of about 4000 euro btw.

greencap · 05-03-2018 03:18AM

Its Purge Time wrote: »

But the Poles are telling the EU to **** off. They don't want any of Merkel's children and if the Fuhrer forces the issue the Poles will remind her Germany owes about a trillion euros in war reparations.

Hopefully sense will prevail and the old Nazi Merkel will give up.

They don't have to 'want'.

The doors over there.

Over there by the trade barriers, the import taxes, the loss of business.

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-03-2018 03:25AM

greencap wrote: »

The whole anglosphere nonsense, how many times I've heard it.

The US used to be in the mix too. Then they realised Donnie doesn't give a small one about them.

Canada won't be in there either. Its already in bed with the EU, and Quebec won't have anything to do with such an Anglo-centric entity.

Theres already a commonwealth*. Dont think there'll be a redundant commonwealth 2.0 needed.

*Which has a gdp p.c. of about 4000 euro btw.

The big problem with the old CW is the free movement of people, the Aussies certainly aren't going to freely accept anyone from Nigeria, Ghana etc without a visa.

Canada might not dismiss the idea of free movement of goods, people and services over a basic EU trade deal, Quebec could separate, Tornonto, VC and the NW is the real bulk of Canada. NZ, and even the US would be grateful for new partnerships as China takes the world lead in 2030.

Casualsingby · 05-03-2018 03:26AM

pumpkin4life wrote: »

Britain left it.

Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Austria are more in the telling the Europe to fùck off mood with all this immigration bullshìt.

The National Front made their biggest gains in the last election; the second party in France now an anti-EU party.

Italy today had elections where the biggest party in parliament now is anti-EU.

Nigel Farage is giving talks to people about Irexit and people are turning up to them. Those talks are in demand now and weren't happening a few years ago.

Irish people are go along to get along, hate people who do better then them, love to be told what to do kind of people. We will be one of the last countries to leave.

But still, and if there's any fùcking around with the corporate tax rate and the border, things will change quickly.

Ten years.

The same Nigel farage who told Obama to not interfere with the UK. And at the meeting in Ireland was an English guy living here Farage's Irexit Conference: A man from Sussex, now living in Ireland, says immigration is why he wants #Irexit. “Are you not an immigrant?” “I don’t regard Ireland as a foreign country.” This is what we are dealing with. Is that but job for real, he should deport himself if he practices what he preaches. Deluded.

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-03-2018 03:31AM

greencap wrote: »

They don't have to 'want'. The doors over there. Over there by the trade barriers, the import taxes, the loss of business.

Poland are about x10 more likely to leave than Belgium. They've probably had enough of the old invasion malarkey over the years already.

Would expect Italy's odds to be down to 3.5 tomorrow afternoon.

greencap · 05-03-2018 03:39AM

Owen Shapely Swinger wrote: »

Poland are about x10 more likely to leave than Belgium. They've probably had enough of the old invasion malarkey over the years already.

Would expect Italy's odds to be down to 3.5 tomorrow afternoon.

lol. comical.

10 times as likely as Belgium to leave.

Which is a bit like me being about 10 times as likely to put in a car window as a garda.

And they're bookies odds.

Putting your trust in people who make money from your mistakes.

Yeah they're probably tired of the old invasion craic alright.

So unless they want to face Vlads little green men alone they're probably going to want to stay with the EU.

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-03-2018 03:49AM

greencap wrote: »

...And they're bookies odds.

Putting your trust in people who make money from your mistakes.

Yeah they're probably tired of the old invasion craic alright.

So unless they want to face Vlads little green men alone they're probably going to want to stay with the EU.

Money talks, talk walks. Traders like hedge funds managers don't just pull numbers out of thin air, but occasionally they do get it wrong eg. I backed Brexit & Trump pr€viously. But believe Italy will be next to leave in this market.

Vlad would of course be a concern for them, equally going the route of Sweden (surprisingly single figure odds) might be just as much of a turn-off.

professore · 05-03-2018 08:45AM

Owen Shapely Swinger wrote: »

Poland are about x10 more likely to leave than Belgium. They've probably had enough of the old invasion malarkey over the years already.

Would expect Italy's odds to be down to 3.5 tomorrow afternoon.

Surprised Sweden is near the top.

Ulysses Gaze · 05-03-2018 08:54AM

greencap wrote: »

Never said you did.

The most Euro-skeptics can hope for is the loss of a limb of the EU.

Again, consider the Franco-German core.
This time from the perspective of Netherlands and Belgium.
Do you want free movement of trade, I think so.

Or from the Polish perspective. Vlads next door, armed to the teeth and taking bits of Ukraine. Want to stay in the club, yeah I think so.

Finland - yeah that might be a good idea.

The EU is a snowball effect, theres economic and military safety in numbers.
And once you're in its so much easier to stay than to get up, leave, and then face life outside the single market.

You think the EU Paper Tiger would be able to stop Vlad militarily?

They would be relying, as always, on the UK & US if it came down to it.

liamo · 05-03-2018 09:39AM

I read a really interesting article shortly after the Brexit referendum. It's here and is worth a read.

The article was written about a month after the Brexit referendum but long before Trump was elected. It proposed a series of events that could lead to the next world war. It's not a prediction. Just some musings by someone interested in historical patterns.

Here are the first few events:

1. Brexit in the UK causes Italy or France to have a similar referendum.
That didn't happen as proposed. However, the Italian election may be interpreted as a partial (or maybe full) match.

2. Trump wins in the US.
I'm not sure anyone really thought this would happen but ......

3. Trump becomes isolationist, which weakens NATO.
Isolationist, yes. Weakens NATO, not sure yet.

He moves on to other events which haven't come about .... yet!

An interesting and thought-provoking read.

Pepefrogok · 05-03-2018 09:40AM

professore wrote: »

Surprised Sweden is near the top.

Have you seen Sweden lately? Funny enough the New York Times just penned a mia culpa admitting that all the media was to quick to jump on trump and the non liberal media for voicing concerns there, no go zones, daily grenade attacks and spiking rapes, not good.
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/03/03/world/europe/sweden-crime-immigration-hand-grenades.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FSweden&action=click&contentCollection=world&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection&referer=https://www.nytimes.com/topic/destination/sweden

The elections in Sweden in September will tell a tale, the liberal media can only downplay and hide problems for so long, the people aren't stupid and will vote accordingly just like the fantastic Italian results!

darkdubh · 05-03-2018 09:50AM

Casualsingby wrote: »

On the subject of illegals coming in to Europe, the main point which is overlooked is western ie USA UK in particular interference in these countries. The illegal war in Iraq destabilised the entire region and left a vacuum for the unrest. Which spread throughout the region, which lead to the "Arab spring“ which lead to the situation in Syria which lead to hundreds of thousands coming to Europe.

On the second front. Interfering in Libya, lead to the downfall of Gaddafi, he ruled with an iron fist, had deals with Europe with stop boats leaving from the Libyan coast. Now its a no man's land, people in central Africa leave in their droves to Libya and up to the coast with no one stopping them.

So America and UK are the culprits for what has transpired, France too for their bombing of Libya. If these countries would stop starting wars, there wouldn't be so many displaced people coming in to Europe. If the Iraq war didn't happen, neither would half of the shyt that transpired since would have.

I'm not saying Saddam or gaddafi were good people but their countries are a lawless bloodbath since they left. Libya never gets a mention on the news since yet it's like the wild wild west. So yeah stop your illegal wars UK and USA and the world will be more stable. They are entirely to blame for the massive crap.

What about Russia and its illegal wars?

05-03-2018 10:00AM

All these predictions seem to be based on the EU not changing and continuing as it has so far. Recent years have shown serious weaknesses within the EU and how it is managed. The issues with Brexit, or the issues raised by political parties in Italy, Poland etc all point towards a reform of EU powers/controls.

IF the EU continues as it is now, then it'll fall apart. And we're all ****ed. All of us. Short term gains, but ultimately it will screw every small country in Europe. Ireland included.

If it allows itself to be reformed closer to the original plan for a EU (without the political/moral forces), then it's likely to improve, since European countries need a focus. Most of Europe is small countries relying far too much on service/information industries for the revenue, which isn't particularly reliable. The EU provides a potential balance for that.

Personally, I expect to see moves towards Russia joining the EU, with some concessions made to allow the "re-unification" of certain elements. A change in the political landscape with more hardliners against immigration, and more focus on being proud of European culture. A stronger push to create a European Military, and a more isolationist attitude similar to America after WW1, leaving the US to mess up the remainder of the M.East, while the EU dabbles with economic policies. Closer connections with China, while the US moves gradually away with its own isolationist beliefs. Wouldn't be too surprised to see some EU led military actions to expand borders and create buffers at a later stage too.

quokula · 05-03-2018 10:22AM

Some of the posts here are hilarious. Suggesting that a two hour flight or ferry ride leaves us isolated from Europe while suggesting a union involving Australia and New Zealand in the same breath. Or stating the the US multinationals who are literally based here precisely because we have access to EU markets, would somehow prefer us to be a 51st state with access to the American internal market that their existing American HQs already have total access to. Or thinking that post Brexit Britain will magically and quickly make an advantageous trade partnership with a far bigger and increasingly protectionist USA while simultaneously becoming a tax haven and retaining good access to the EU market.

Back in reality, things likely won’t change too drastically. Without the UK involved there will be increased integration which Ireland will probably be uncomfortable with but will ultimately be better than any other options. The UK will be trying to rejoin about ten years from now too, even if Brexit doesn’t decimate their economy, on pure demographics the majority of the country of voting age will want their EU citizenship back by then.

The biggest questions the EU will face are from outside, will Putin continue to be an agitator, will China’s sphere of influence spread, how will we deal with continuing mass migration as climate refugees begin to eclipse war refugees, and will the USA continue its lurch towards nationalism or will they be strong allies again?

dav3 · 05-03-2018 10:35AM

A united Ireland and Scotland seceding from the uk is guaranteed. Apart from Putin getting taken out after he's outgrown his usefulness, not much else will happen.
Compared to last century, it's been fairly subdued in Europe.

Pepefrogok · 05-03-2018 10:37AM

dav3 wrote: »

A united Ireland and Scotland seceding from the uk is guaranteed. Apart from Putin getting taken out after he's outgrown his usefulness, not much else will happen.
Compared to last century, it's been fairly subdued in Europe.

Just the small hurdle of the Irish people not wanting a UI and the Scott's already rejecting independence! And Putin will name his successor who he will craft in his image.

OneEightSeven · 05-03-2018 10:43AM

I feel that the EU will collapse if they don't implement the following:

1. Offshore detention centers for illegal immigrants. People across Europe are fed of Muslim and African immigration. They bring so much crime and other social issues compared to immigrants from other regions.

2. End free movement of workers. Open borders with 27 other countries is putting stress on infrastructure and we're struggling to keep up with the demand. Ireland housing crisis is a sterling example: rents, property prices and salaries in the construction sector are through the roof because there so much demand for homes. It's nearly impossible for working and middle class people to own their own home near Dublin.

I doubt we'll see those implemented anytime soon because it's clear the EU wants to undermine homogeneity as ethnic nationalism the biggest obstacle to a federal EU. The EU seemed more eager to embrace Scotland becoming independent than Catalonia and that's because Catalonia is the most Euroskeptic region of Spain.

Hopefully there will be another surge of nationalism in the EU Parliament elections next year so we can remove most of the Eurofederalists.

topper75 · 05-03-2018 10:45AM

Can't see us leaving sadly.

Scottish lairds and politicians back in the day sold out the ordinary people of Scotland for London careers and money (well their debts got paid from the Darien scheme).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme

Scenario sound familiar to ye?

Our politicians are hooked on the Brussels promises and will screw us over every time to get there when the Irish electorate vote them out here.

Different arena - but history does repeat.

Makes no sense to rebel against an empire and attempt to join another one a mere century later.

Being just Irish is OK - and having antipathy towards our neighbours is NOT a corollary of that, as some eurosellouts would claim.

ArchXStanton · 05-03-2018 10:48AM

OneEightSeven wrote: »

I feel that the EU will collapse if they don't implement the following:

1. Offshore detention centers for illegal immigrants. People across Europe are fed of Muslim and African immigration. They bring so much crime and other social issues compared to immigrants from other regions.

2. End free movement of workers. Open borders with 27 other countries is putting stress on infrastructure and we're struggling to keep up with the demand. Ireland housing crisis is a sterling example: rents, property prices and salaries in the construction sector are through the roof because there so much demand for homes. It's nearly impossible for working and middle class people to own their own home near Dublin.

I doubt we'll see those implemented anytime soon because it's clear the EU wants to undermine homogeneity as ethnic nationalism the biggest obstacle to a federal EU. The EU seemed more eager to embrace Scotland becoming independent than Catalonia and that's because Catalonia is the most Euroskeptic region of Spain.

Hopefully there will be another surge of nationalism in the EU Parliament elections next year so we can remove most of the Eurofederalists.

Hopefully we'll see the back of that rabid, fanatical,bucktooth psychopath Verhofstadt,one thing I think created such animosity towards the EU is that the people were never asked about this political union,infact they actively conspired to keep it away from the people

dav3 · 05-03-2018 10:57AM

Pepefrogok wrote: »

Just the small hurdle of the Irish people not wanting a UI and the Scott's already rejecting independence! And Putin will name his successor who he will craft in his image.

Good man, don't ever change.

seamus · 05-03-2018 11:12AM

I see this has just become a circlejerk thread for people who love nationalism and hate immigrants and muslims.

Any road, I can see the EU being the economy to fare the best out of the upcoming global recession. China has a massive property speculation bubble on the verge of bursting, and the US is taking capitalism to its ultimate conclusion. The continued gutting of workers' rights and conditions in favour of corporate profits can only ultimately end in failure and collapse.

The UK and it's toddler-tantrums being removed from the EU will allow for tighter integration of travel, customs and employment regulations. To the point where, for example, you can get your power from a German power company and your phone from a Spanish provider, and it'll be completely seamless.

Russia's a wildcard. Likely we will see the re-emergence of a new Russian empire, with Putin officially dictator for life rather than just de facto dictator like he is now. This will leave the EU with considerable tension along its Eastern borders. However, Russia will not make many friends, and with the increasing progessivness of places like Iran and Saudi, and increasing west-friendliness of China, Russia will find itself being isolated along most of its borders.

What IS the future of Europe?

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