What IS the future of Europe?

drillyeye

Its something you hear all the time, "this could affect the future of Europe", and twenty different variations of it.

But what I have yet to hear is any kind of stated intent on the actual future of Europe.

What is it?

It seems so vague and poorly articulated, all about "now" while ignoring "later".

So where do you think Europe will be in 10 years, what is the actual future you see?

Heres a quicky.......brexit will happen and borders will go up in Ireland. Rather than anything actually happening, Ireland and the UK will begin to stagnate. The rest of Europe will stagnate too, but just take a bit longer to get there.

With the rise and establishment of the far-right, immigration will be completely shut down, and might actually see "deportations" on a large scale. Fortress Europe will come about, and politics sides with growing resentment of people as unemployment rises.

Another big EU member will leave (looking at you tonight, Italy), and the weaker countries will be "coerced" into remaining by a more militarily minded Germany.

Will see an Anglo-American alliance of sorts as protectionism becomes the name of the game for the future world.

Some developing countries will go to war on a large scale (much bigger than Syria), and we'll have proxy wars develop backed by either the Russians, the german-absorbed EU (the German Union?), or the anglo alliance.

We'll stumble along and suffer with the EU, eventually being one of the last to join the anglo American alliance

Or in other words, not too bright an outlook in the next 10 years.

Can anyone give a reasonably bright outlook at all, beyond pure hope, of course?

Outlaw Pete

More touring I expect. They play the Olympia Sep 12th.

Ulysses Gaze

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

More touring I expect. They play the Olympia Sep 12th.

Joey Tempest has still got it....

drillyeye

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

More touring I expect. They play the Olympia Sep 12th.

I thought they were long dead! What will all the constant jumping and stuff

professore

drillyeye wrote: »

Heres a quicky.......brexit will happen and borders will go up in Ireland. Rather than anything actually happening, Ireland and the UK will begin to stagnate. The rest of Europe will stagnate too, but just take a bit longer to get there.

Most of southern Europe has been stagnant for decades already. I see Germany calling all the shots and imposing ever stricter and bureaucratic laws. Gender and race quotas for everything. Meltdown of the welfare state. The EU will fall apart messily and quickly in the next. 5-10 years. The UK to boom after a recession post brexit by employing less regulation, selective immigration and lower taxes coupled with the EU allowing them de facto access to the single market.

Mezcita

professore wrote: »

Most of southern Europe has been stagnant for decades already. I see Germany calling all the shots and imposing ever stricter and bureaucratic laws. Gender and race quotas for everything. Meltdown of the welfare state. The EU will fall apart messily and quickly in the next. 5-10 years. The UK to boom after a recession post brexit by employing less regulation, selective immigration and lower taxes coupled with the EU allowing them de facto access to the single market.

Tell me another story I'm kind of sleepy.

Casualsingby

On the subject of illegals coming in to Europe, the main point which is overlooked is western ie USA UK in particular interference in these countries. The illegal war in Iraq destabilised the entire region and left a vacuum for the unrest. Which spread throughout the region, which lead to the "Arab spring“ which lead to the situation in Syria which lead to hundreds of thousands coming to Europe.

On the second front. Interfering in Libya, lead to the downfall of Gaddafi, he ruled with an iron fist, had deals with Europe with stop boats leaving from the Libyan coast. Now its a no man's land, people in central Africa leave in their droves to Libya and up to the coast with no one stopping them.

So America and UK are the culprits for what has transpired, France too for their bombing of Libya. If these countries would stop starting wars, there wouldn't be so many displaced people coming in to Europe. If the Iraq war didn't happen, neither would half of the shyt that transpired since would have.

I'm not saying Saddam or gaddafi were good people but their countries are a lawless bloodbath since they left. Libya never gets a mention on the news since yet it's like the wild wild west. So yeah stop your illegal wars UK and USA and the world will be more stable. They are entirely to blame for the massive crap.

drillyeye

professore wrote: »

Most of southern Europe has been stagnant for decades already. I see Germany calling all the shots and imposing ever stricter and bureaucratic laws. Gender and race quotas for everything. Meltdown of the welfare state. The EU will fall apart messily and quickly in the next. 5-10 years. The UK to boom after a recession post brexit by employing less regulation, selective immigration and lower taxes coupled with the EU allowing them de facto access to the single market.

We're thinking the same time frame anyway. I'll make an additions/changes.

Germany will (is!) call(ing) all the shots for a fractured Europe, but there will be a shift from pure economic power to include more military muscle too. Third times a charm!

And yeah, I can see the UK doing pretty well after a trough, through more lenient economic measures, not based on immigration at all, but based on an alignment with protectionist-driven American alliance.

The german EU will clash more and more the anglo alliance. Again, third times a charm!

The rest of the world will drop into chaos in the middle of it all

Mr. Incognito

Britains economy will be destroyed by brexit.

The result will be a tightening European federal state in the next forty years which when integrated will become the next superpower sans britain which will probably become cheap manual labour

Mtx

A place plagued by Islamic terrorism on a scale we haven't seen before.

Jim Gazebo

Irelandless

drillyeye

Casualsingby wrote: »

On the subject of illegals coming in to Europe, the main point which is overlooked is western ie USA UK in particular interference in these countries. The illegal war in Iraq destabilised the entire region and left a vacuum for the unrest. Which spread throughout the region, which lead to the "Arab spring“ which lead to the situation in Syria which lead to hundreds of thousands coming to Europe.

On the second front. Interfering in Libya, lead to the downfall of Gaddafi, he ruled with an iron fist, had deals with Europe with stop boats leaving from the Libyan coast. Now its a no man's land, people in central Africa leave in their droves to Libya and up to the coast with no one stopping them.

So America and UK are the culprits for what has transpired, France too for their bombing of Libya. If these countries would stop starting wars, there wouldn't be so many displaced people coming in to Europe. If the Iraq war didn't happen, neither would half of the shyt that transpired since would have.

I'm not saying Saddam or gaddafi were good people but their countries are a lawless bloodbath since they left. Libya never gets a mention on the news since yet it's like the wild wild west. So yeah stop your illegal wars UK and USA and the world will be more stable. They are entirely to blame for all the whinging people do about immigrants from the middle east and Africa.

I agree, but theres no point crying over spilled milk. Its a done thing.

The rest of the world, I predict, will begin to seriously deteriorate while the big boys start going at each other. And on immigration, once that is stopped (whatever form that takes), that's the end of it, never happening again. We'll look back on these years as some weird dream, where people could travel freely even on holidays!

drillyeye

Mr. Incognito wrote: »

Britains economy will be destroyed by brexit.

The result will be a tightening European federal state in the next forty years which when integrated will become the next superpower sans britain which will probably become cheap manual labour

The powers that be in Britain aren't stupid enough to allow that to happen, I put good money on them joining with America and making a good go of it. Look at Trumps steel tax being bandied around, its only a matter of time before protectionism kicks in big time.

VERY likely is that we will join that alliance after a while faffing around in the EU clueless. Quite easy to draw a line on the global map then!

drillyeye

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

Irelandless

We'll be joined the hip with the UK within 10 years, no doubt. The EU will kick up a stink in the meantime about our intentions, but when the big multinationals "repatriate" to an anglo alliance, we'll be left with our dicks swinging and nothing to lose.

Casualsingby

drillyeye wrote: »

The powers that be in Britain aren't stupid enough to allow that to happen, I put good money on them joining with America and making a good go of it. Look at Trumps steel tax being bandied around, its only a matter of time before protectionism kicks in big time.

VERY likely is that we will join that alliance after a while faffing around in the EU clueless. Quite easy to draw a line on the global map then!

The UK isn't a super power anymore and doesn't have the same clout as the USA. What do you mean by join together? USA under trump doesn't care about Britain. And I thought brexit was all about going on their own, why would they want to be America's little friend who follows what they say?

J Mysterio

drillyeye wrote: »

The powers that be in Britain aren't stupid enough to allow that to happen, I put good money on them joining with America and making a good go of it. Look at Trumps steel tax being bandied around, its only a matter of time before protectionism kicks in big time.

VERY likely is that we will join that alliance after a while faffing around in the EU clueless. Quite easy to draw a line on the global map then!

What makes you think the US will give the UK favourable trade agreements? They have already told them they must accept substandard food. The steel and aluminium tarrifs are a terrible result for their nearest neighbour and ally, Canada. For the Trump administration, a good deal is you get screwed, I win. It implausible.

More likely Britain goes into economic meltdown and seeks to rejoin the EU in 5-10 years. Also, the powers that be in the UK have proven themselves to be very stupid indeed.

dxhound2005

A few years ago the people on the internet told me to convert my money into Danish and South African currency because the Euro was going to collapse. What am I supposed to do now?

J Mysterio

drillyeye wrote: »

We'll be joined the hip with the UK within 10 years, no doubt. The EU will kick up a stink in the meantime about our intentions, but when the big multinationals "repatriate" to an anglo alliance, we'll be left with our dicks swinging and nothing to lose.

0 (zero) chance of this.

Casualsingby

dxhound2005 wrote: »

A few years ago the people on the internet told me to convert my money into Danish and South African currency because the Euro was going to collapse. What am I supposed to do now?

Unrelated to thread but I once worked with a white South African who told me when Nelson Mandela dies it will be start of ww3 and he will return home to fight that day. They are crazy people in rl too lol

drillyeye

J Mysterio wrote: »

What makes you think the US will give the UK favourable trade agreements? They have already told them they must accept substandard food. The steel and aluminium tarrifs are a terrible result for their nearest neighbour and ally, Canada. For the Trump administration, a good deal is you get screwed, I win. It implausible.

More likely Britain goes into economic meltdown and seeks to rejoin the EU in 5-10 years. Also, the powers that be in the UK have proven themselves to be very stupid indeed.

Its only implausible if measured against the CURRENT rules of the game.

Protectionism, such as the proposed steel tax, changes the rules of the game.

In isolation, the united states can weather competing tax tariffs as the game gathers pace, but they will be much more likely to try form alliances, and the uk, new and single and looking for a hookup, will be more than willing.

They'll do well out of it by changing the rules of economic trade, and the german EU will play their own version, bringing them into conflict with each other eventually.

As for Canada, I can see them being absorbed unwillingly into a trade alliance with the americans.

Just think of it as a map, does Canada+ EU make more sense than Canada+united states? And does English speaking, American multinational land (aka Ireland) make more sense +EU, or +UK and United states?

CarlosHarpic

Third world islamic ****hole in the west.

Still Europe in the east.

Ones who caused it living in heavily guarded gated communities telling the rest of us to deal with it.

drillyeye

J Mysterio wrote: »

0 (zero) chance of this.

Our economy is based significantly on American companies. America is rumbling about repatriation of said companies. UK and USA are best mates (relatively speaking). There are hints of protectionism all over the shop.

Therefore I say that UK and Ireland will eventually be joined together economically, and that we will leave the EU.

Theres a flow of logic at least.

Whats your logic "0 chance"?

drillyeye

Casualsingby wrote: »

Unrelated to thread but I once worked with a white South African who told me when Nelson Mandela dies it will be start of ww3 and he will return home to fight that day. They are crazy people in rl too lol

Well I wouldn't be too pushed about some guy dying somewhere in africa, versus the largest political blocs in the world getting pissed with each other.

Casualsingby

drillyeye wrote: »

The powers that be in Britain aren't stupid enough to allow that to happen, I put good money on them joining with America and making a good go of it. Look at Trumps steel tax being bandied around, its only a matter of time before protectionism kicks in big time.

VERY likely is that we will join that alliance after a while faffing around in the EU clueless. Quite easy to draw a line on the global map then!

The UK isn't a super power anymore and doesn't have the same clout as the USA. What do you mean by join together? USA under trump doesn't care about Britain. And I thought brexit was all about going on their own, why would they want to be America's little friend who follows what they say?

Its Purge Time

Casualsingby wrote: »

Unrelated to thread but I once worked with a white South African who told me when Nelson Mandela dies it will be start of ww3 and he will return home to fight that day. They are crazy people in rl too lol

The genius Africans have decided to seize white owned land (worked so well in Zimbabwe). He might be right.

CarlosHarpic wrote: »

Third world islamic ****hole in the west.

Still Europe in the east.

Ones who caused it living in heavily guarded gated communities telling the rest of us to deal with it.

This. And they'll still call us racists for not enjoying the exciting New Europe.

dxhound2005

The EU 27 are pushing for a United Ireland. When it happens, thousands of NI inhabitants will repatriate themselves to the Mainland. Scotland will secede from the UK and rejoin the EU. Interesting times ahead in this part of the world.

drillyeye

Casualsingby wrote: »

The UK isn't a super power anymore and doesn't have the same clout as the USA. What do you mean by join together? USA under trump doesn't care about Britain. And I thought brexit was all about going on their own, why would they want to be America's little friend who follows what they say?

It certainly isn't a military superpower, but the wealth of Britain cant be shooed away, and its not just GDP but the "stored" capital of the old empire. Not to mention its heavy influence in many parts of the world.

They wont go it on their own for the same reason the USA wont go it on their own, they'll forge their own links, and those links will be hardened by the antagonism of competing groups such as the EU.

There is no way the UK are just going to isolate themselves forever, its just not going to happen. The same way we cant distance ourselves from their choices and influence.

In a sequence of events, heres one to consider, that after the UK and USA have their agreements made, there will be a f*ck ton of pressure put on Ireland via the multinationals that our economy subsists upon, and we'll be coerced into joining their new group too. What leverage does the EU have over us??

drillyeye

dxhound2005 wrote: »

The EU 27 are pushing for a United Ireland. When it happens, thousands of NI inhabitants will repatriate themselves to the Mainland. Scotland will secede from the UK and rejoin the EU. Interesting times ahead in this part of the world.

Don't know about the whole Ireland thing, but these next 10 years are going to bring massive changes to the global map, one way or the other.

Tuco88

The UK will take dip after Brexit but not for long, remember this is pound sterling ol Britannia.

How this a boarder not boarder works will be fun. Keep an eye on Scottish movement (no eu cash brexit bill to be paid) in 5-10 years I think they will go it was very close last time.

Its Purge Time

drillyeye wrote: »

In a sequence of events, heres one to consider, that after the UK and USA have their agreements made, there will be a f*ck ton of pressure put on Ireland via the multinationals that our economy subsists upon, and we'll be coerced into joining their new group too. What leverage does the EU have over us??

We will go where the money and jobs are. Fck the EU.

drillyeye

Its Purge Time wrote: »

We will go where the money and jobs are. Fck the EU.

And that, at the end of the day, is what its all about. And the EU has far less to "offer" us than the United states/UK.

For all the countless hours of guff we'll suffer on television for years about borders and who said that and what it might entail and blah blah blah.........it really is that fecking simple!

Its Purge Time

drillyeye wrote: »

And that, at the end of the day, is what its all about. And the EU has far less to "offer" us than the United states/UK.

For all the countless hours of guff we'll suffer on television for years about borders and who said that and what it might entail and blah blah blah.........it really is that fecking simple!

Yeah. And personally I couldn't give a damn about the EU. I have zero loyalty to Brussels or that mad woman in Germany.

KyussB

The economic imbalances caused by the Euro (which have never been resolved), and a lack of adequate fiscal transfers across EU nations to make up for this, combined with one of the next big economic crises, will push a Eurozone country out of the Euro.

No idea what will happen then. It could lead to last minute reforms in the Eurozone which prevent a total breakup (either a closer step to adequate fiscal transfers, or a return to national currencies alongside the Euro) - or it could lead to the disintegration of the Euro, and fracturing of the EU into different currency zones.

The way things seem to go, is that last minute solutions will be reached, but they tend to be shaped in the favour of maintaining Germany's economic dominance - and further securing the removal of economic control within individual EU nations - a trend I expect to see continue through the decades.

JohnnyFlash

Think the pension thing will become a real crisis around 2030. People living to huge ages, while there's less younger folk paying into the pot. The slow decline of the welfare state as a result. There simply won't be enough people working to pay 50/60/70% taxes to support the old. Huge kickback against the small group of society who never work, and cause so much trouble. A proper underclass. Immigration will have been seen as a noble, but deeply flawed, attempt to address the aging populace. The automation of millions of jobs - especially in areas like law, accounting, and finance.

The socialists would tell you that it's late stage capitalism, and to prepare for the revolution; the capitalists would tell you that human ingenuity will solve it. Personally think something new will have to emerge.

greencap

Some of those predictions are hilarious.

Future of Europe is the EU will remain and probably take in one or two more Balkan states.

EU is not going anywhere don't worry.

Start off with the Franco-German economic cooperation, this is basically the core of the EU. For the EU to ever fully die you need to stop Franco-German economic co-operation.

And thats going to take ....well war basically..., since theres absolutely nothing to gain for either party, and probably hundreds of billions to lose.

For it to stop being the EU you'd have to restrict freedom of movement for goods and people between France-Germany. Which wont be an easy vote to win now, since across al of Europe people have formed personal and business relations, invested in properties, formed close ties in different countries.
How you going to unravel that.

Hey buddy vote for the re-introduction of borders and visa so you can no longer live with your significant other abroad, no longer manage your investments, no longer run your business, no longer freely use that property.

Immigration I think has had its day, the centrist masses have come to the conclusion that theres no need to be extreme in either direction, but that we've had enough. It won't ever be Angelas free for all again, like in 2016.

People have been predicting the imminent collapse of the EU and the Euro for years now. Its not happening.

Predictions for UK; they come to their senses after a fair but stern offer from the EU. Kick those conservative charlatans out, and let labour backpeddle the UK out of its current mess.
At least until the next inevitable backswing to the cons, then lab-cons-lab-cons ad nauseum.

US: That asshat finishes his full term. His threats and various faux-pas just pushing allies and partners down new paths.
The right lose their appetite for a while.

Hopefully after things go back to normal we can all learn to stop voting for hard liners of all ilks. Learn to stop the bull****.

Cutie 3.14

Don't know but its scary thinking about it.
Ireland only very recently joined the European Army and it went mostly unnoticed by the masses. I've a very ominous feeling about that...

drillyeye

Its Purge Time wrote: »

Yeah. And personally I couldn't give a damn about the EU. I have zero loyalty to Brussels or that mad woman in Germany.

There was a point were I would have said Merkel can do no wrong, easily the most level-headed, pragmatic world leader out of them all.

Then she woke up one day and decided that Europe was open to the world, come on down, the price is right!

Too bad she didn't ask anyone else, or actually think it through, or have an exit plan, or cooperation. It is one of the worst political decisions ever made in modern history, mind-blowingly bad!

And so weird, to go from maybe the greatest leader in the world to such stupidity in the blink of an eye. Damn strange.

In fact, the only stranger thing is that she has managed to hold onto her position till now, that's kerraazzzy! Not for much longer, I wouldn't say.

In some ways you can say it contributed to brexit even.

Its Purge Time

drillyeye wrote: »

There was a point were I would have said Merkel can do no wrong, easily the most level-headed, pragmatic world leader out of them all.

Then she woke up one day and decided that Europe was open to the world, come on down, the price is right!

Too bad she didn't ask anyone else, or actually think it through, or have an exit plan, or cooperation. It is one of the worst political decisions ever made in modern history, mind-blowingly bad!

And so weird, to go from maybe the greatest leader in the world to such stupidity in the blink of an eye. Damn strange.

In fact, the only stranger thing is that she has managed to hold onto her position till now, that's kerraazzzy! Not for much longer, I wouldn't say.

In some ways you can say it contributed to brexit even.

And it's all she'll ever be remembered for. That and the NYE mass sex attacks and the rise of the AFD. Is she evil or just insane?

Its Purge Time

Cutie 3.14 wrote: »

Don't know but its scary thinking about it.
Ireland only very recently joined the European Army and it went mostly unnoticed by the masses. I've a very ominous feeling about that...

What are you worried about? That we'll get conscripted?

dxhound2005

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Think the pension thing will become a real crisis around 2030. People living to huge ages, while there's less younger folk paying into the pot. The slow decline of the welfare state as a result. There simply won't be enough people working to pay 50/60/70% taxes to support the old. Huge kickback against the small group of society who never work, and cause so much trouble. A proper underclass. Immigration will have been seen as a noble, but deeply flawed, attempt to address the aging populace. The automation of millions of jobs - especially in areas like law, accounting, and finance.

The socialists would tell you that it's late stage capitalism, and to prepare for the revolution; the capitalists would tell you that human ingenuity will solve it. Personally think something new will have to emerge.

Those demographics are Ireland, not the EU. A lot of countries in the EU and in the West generally, will need immigration to maintain their populations. The birth rate falls below replacement levels as countries get more affluent.

The solution to our pension problem is to extend the retirement age, and this is happening already.

drillyeye

greencap wrote: »

Some of those predictions are hilarious.

Future of Europe is the EU will remain and probably take in one or two more Balkan states.

EU is not going anywhere don't worry.

Start off with the Franco-German economic cooperation, this is basically the core of the EU. For the EU to ever fully die you need to stop Franco-German economic co-operation.

And thats going to take ....well war basically..., since theres absolutely nothing to gain for either party, and probably hundreds of billions to lose.

For it to stop being the EU you'd have to restrict freedom of movement for goods and people between France-Germany. Which wont be an easy vote to win now, since across al of Europe people have formed personal and business relations, invested in properties, formed close ties in different countries.
How you going to unravel that.

Hey buddy vote for the re-introduction of borders and visa so you can no longer live with your significant other abroad, no longer manage your investments, no longer run your business, no longer freely use that property.

Immigration I think has had its day, the centrist masses have come to the conclusion that theres no need to be extreme in either direction, but that we've had enough. It won't ever be Angelas free for all again, like in 2016.

People have been predicting the imminent collapse of the EU and the Euro for years now. Its not happening.

Predictions for UK; they come to their senses after a fair but stern offer from the EU. Kick those conservative charlatans out, and let labour backpeddle the UK out of its current mess.
At least until the next inevitable backswing to the cons, then lab-cons-lab-cons ad nauseum.

US: That asshat finishes his full term. His threats and various faux-pas just pushing allies and partners down new paths.
The right lose their appetite for a while.

Hopefully after things go back to normal we can all learn to stop voting for hard liners of all ilks. Learn to stop the bull****.

Well I didn't make any mention of france and Germany falling out, I don't think they will. But I do see big questions over Italy remaining. Perhaps in an attempt to make up lost ground Germany will decide to allow in some weaker states.

As for your mention of "normal", we are in this position because of "normal".

"Normal" has had its day, as indicated by quite literally everything that has happened geopolitically for years now.

drillyeye

KyussB wrote: »

The economic imbalances caused by the Euro (which have never been resolved), and a lack of adequate fiscal transfers across EU nations to make up for this, combined with one of the next big economic crises, will push a Eurozone country out of the Euro.

No idea what will happen then. It could lead to last minute reforms in the Eurozone which prevent a total breakup (either a closer step to adequate fiscal transfers, or a return to national currencies alongside the Euro) - or it could lead to the disintegration of the Euro, and fracturing of the EU into different currency zones.

The way things seem to go, is that last minute solutions will be reached, but they tend to be shaped in the favour of maintaining Germany's economic dominance - and further securing the removal of economic control within individual EU nations - a trend I expect to see continue through the decades.

Italy is preeeeety likely to be next after brexit. Just watch the election results in the next few days as a good indicator, especially the rhetoric.

I think that's about it though, Germany ill retain control of the EU come hell or highwater and maintain its grip.

Ireland I think will leave, even if Italy don't, based on lack of EU leverage versus a strong anglo leverage.

Cutie 3.14

Cutie 3.14 wrote: »

Don't know but its scary thinking about it.
Ireland only very recently joined the European Army and it went mostly unnoticed by the masses. I've a very ominous feeling about that...

It did not go unnoticed. Another betrayal imo.

dxhound2005

The Anglo leverage did not stop us leaving the Sterling Area, and then joining the Euro. The Eurozone is very strong and it would make no sense to go back to Sterling.

drillyeye

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Think the pension thing will become a real crisis around 2030. People living to huge ages, while there's less younger folk paying into the pot. The slow decline of the welfare state as a result. There simply won't be enough people working to pay 50/60/70% taxes to support the old. Huge kickback against the small group of society who never work, and cause so much trouble. A proper underclass. Immigration will have been seen as a noble, but deeply flawed, attempt to address the aging populace. The automation of millions of jobs - especially in areas like law, accounting, and finance.

The socialists would tell you that it's late stage capitalism, and to prepare for the revolution; the capitalists would tell you that human ingenuity will solve it. Personally think something new will have to emerge.

There are so many potential crises all due for arrival within the same time frame, automation, nationalism, demographics, protectionism, large bloc breakups (brexit, maybe Italy too), Russia and its "invincible weapons" program, changing climates, societal "movements" sponsored by the likes of facebook based on race, gender, religion, disenfranchised youth and so on......jesus, the list is huge if you were to add it all up.

Some big changes are on the cards, big time! Just as well we have the alternating duo of FG and FF to lead us through it all :P

dxhound2005

It's good to live in the most affluent part of the world, in the most affluent age of all time. Where life expectancy went up by 10 years since 1960, which is an astonishing statistic. And people are healthier for far longer than ever before.

We have always had doom and gloom merchants, predicting the demise of all and sundry, but usually they are way off the mark.

drillyeye

dxhound2005 wrote: »

The Anglo leverage did not stop us leaving the Sterling Area, and then joining the Euro. The Eurozone is very strong and it would make no sense to go back to Sterling.

When I say "anglo" I mean a combination effect of both the united states and UK.

Ireland without mulitnationals would sink us overnight. The EU has nothing close to that leverage, and if anything, they have antagonised the relationship we have by targeting out tax rates etc.

greencap

drillyeye wrote: »

Well I didn't make any mention of france and Germany falling out, I don't think they will. But I do see big questions over Italy remaining. Perhaps in an attempt to make up lost ground Germany will decide to allow in some weaker states.

As for your mention of "normal", we are in this position because of "normal".

"Normal" has had its day, as indicated by quite literally everything that has happened geopolitically for years now.

Never said you did.

The most Euro-skeptics can hope for is the loss of a limb of the EU.

Again, consider the Franco-German core.
This time from the perspective of Netherlands and Belgium.
Do you want free movement of trade, I think so.

Or from the Polish perspective. Vlads next door, armed to the teeth and taking bits of Ukraine. Want to stay in the club, yeah I think so.

Finland - yeah that might be a good idea.

The EU is a snowball effect, theres economic and military safety in numbers.
And once you're in its so much easier to stay than to get up, leave, and then face life outside the single market.

drillyeye

dxhound2005 wrote: »

It's good to live in the most affluent part of the world, in the most affluent age of all time. Where life expectancy went up by 10 years since 1960, which is an astonishing statistic. And people are healthier for far longer than ever before.

We have always had doom and gloom merchants, predicting the demise of all and sundry, but usually they are way off the mark.

I'm making predictions, of course. But they aren't wild by any stretch of the imagination.

There is just no way, objectively speaking, that anyone can look at the current machinations of the world and think its normal, or "just like before"

dxhound2005

drillyeye wrote: »

I'm making predictions, of course. But they aren't wild by any stretch of the imagination.

There is just no way, objectively speaking, that anyone can look at the current machinations of the world and think its normal, or "just like before"

I think your prediction that Ireland will leave the EU is wild.

drillyeye

greencap wrote: »

Never said you did.

The most Euro-skeptics can hope for is the loss of a limb of the EU.

Again, consider the Franco-German core.
This time from the perspective of Netherlands and Belgium.
Do you want free movement of trade, I think so.

Or from the Polish perspective. Vlads next door, armed to the teeth and taking bits of Ukraine. Want to stay in the club, yeah I think so.

Finland - yeah that might be a good idea.

The EU is a snowball effect, theres economic and military safety in numbers.
And once you're in its so much easier to stay than to get up, leave, and then face life outside the single market.

I completely agree. But what you list above largely doesn't apply to Ireland, or the UK.

UK is out, as a fact. That leaves us in a tenuous position. You KNOW that the UK is going to be all over us, whether in secret or not, and I think the killer blow will come from them cosying upto the US, and in turn starts flexing its economic control over us.

It was always a terrible idea, long term, to become so reliant on American companies. We cant survive without them, and what can the EU offer in lieu?!