Extreme cold weather from Feb 25th on, and now St. Patrick's Day on...

bogman_bass wrote: »

We got a fair pasting an hour ago. Good half inch or so

We got that too. Like a cross between snow and hail

visatorro wrote: »

Got nothing worth talking about yet

Lads still spreading slurry here

Got a good amount here. Can't see school buses running today.

This mornings update from M.T. Cranium on Weather Forum

Wednesday, 28 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

As you probably know, the official word is "red warning" levels for parts of Leinster. I think those conditions may spread a little further in all directions later today and definitely the potential exists for almost nation-wide disruptions by Thursday night and Friday. Heavy snow, blowing snow, and severe cold from wind chill values near -10 C are all part of the developing situation. Conditions today will vary considerably both from one hour to the next, and from one location to another, as snow streamers can develop with gaps between them, sometimes caused by upstream land masses like Wales or the Isle of Man limiting the "fetch" over open water. However, the best bet is to assume that travel in warned areas could be very disrupted even if your locality seems okay. Further afield, it shouldn't be too difficult to get around today in some parts of the west and southwest, but check all sources such as weather forum reports, to get a clear picture of how things are evolving if you need to travel, because in some places, we could foresee road travel coming to a halt and people being stranded in the heavier snowfall areas.

FORECASTS:

TODAY will be exceptionally cold and by afternoon very windy at times (easterly 50-90 km/hr with some variations in direction between southeast and northeast). Heavy snow will redevelop after a brief morning pause, and blizzard conditions are quite possible in parts of Leinster and near the south coast into Cork. (Cork city may be on the edge of that much of the day) ... A further 20 to 40 cm of snow could fall in some places around Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Carlow, Wicklow and Meath, and 15 to 30 cm in Louth and Ulster, parts of Westmeath and Wexford. Falls further west of about 10 to 20 cm are possible, but amounts should taper down to small values (1 to 4 cm) near Atlantic coasts. Blowing snow especially by afternoon may cause zero visibility in blizzard-like conditions. Temperatures will be held down to the range of -2 to +1 C and inland may fall further during heavier snowfalls. Thunder-snow could be frequent in Leinster and occasional elsewhere.

TONIGHT will bring no real relief from this cold, snowy weather in the east and south, and snow may spread more often to the west, but any place that manages to clear could see temperatures as low as -8 C. Otherwise lows will be about -5 C and further snowfalls of 10 to 30 cm are possible in east to southeast winds of 40 to 80 km/hr. This may make the southeast counties and also counties from Meath to eastern Ulster the focus of heaviest snowfalls. Wind chill values of -10 to -15 C may be experienced.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will see this situation merge with an approaching Atlantic storm system's outer bands of moisture. Storm "Emma" seems likely to brush the south coast although guidance continues to be scattered on details. The net result will be that the streamer activity will die out for a time around late Thursday to be replaced by bands of heavy snow moving north and this could add yet another 20 to 40 cm of snow in parts of the south, 10 to 30 cm central (inland from Kildare) and 5 to 20 cm north. Winds will increase at times to southeasterly 60 to 100 km/hr. This snow may be somewhat wet and heavy limiting blowing and drifting in some parts, but exposed rural and higher ground could see renewed blizzards. Temperatures will likely be in the range of -3 to +1 C most of the time, but could fall lower at night in the north if any clear patches develop there. Rain may brush parts of the south coast mid-day Friday as temperatures there briefly rise to 4-6 C in strong southeast winds. Coastal flooding is likely at high tides on the south coast.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... If we try to assess how things are going to look by late Friday, it could vary from very heavy snow cover to scattered moderate amounts, and that may have an impact on how things develop as a second low tries to push the colder air further north. My hunch is that this one won't have any more success than Emma and might just lead to yet another snowfall of 10-15 cm over part of the weekend, but anything beyond Friday is rather speculative given the spread in model guidance this morning. The cold spell could continue for a week or two although not quite as intense as these few days, or it could just taper off to a more average sort of March chilly spell of 4 to 7 C with mixed wintry showers and a slow thaw of any leftover snow. We will have to await better consensus before committing to just one of these possible outcomes.