Saturday PM (10th) - Tuesday AM (13th), Snow and Ice

Gaoth Laidir · 10-02-2018 12:35am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Okay here's why I complain about Met Eireann

1) They ramped up the snow event last week and most got nothing.
2) Last night most of Cork got a right pasting. Yet they didn't suggest the south was at decent risk even though uppers were -8
3) Their regional forecast yesterday by provence was exactly the same for all four yet it was very evident places exposed to the North West were most at risk. Unprofessional imo.
4) They seem to have most confidence in models like harmonie yet clearly models like gfs or ecm are superior.

I don't complain for the sake of it and am on record as congratulating them when they do call it right

"Most of Cork" got a "right pasting"? Really? A right pasting? Based on what?

They do use the ECM. The GFS isn't worth a shíte.

Gaoth Laidir · 10-02-2018 12:37am

Not much snow showing up on the Harmonie anyway.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/962103051229319168

pauldry · 10-02-2018 1:08am

Last night was the snowiest of the Winter so far for many parts of Co Sligo

3 inches in Calry (which is hilly)
2 inches near Tubbercurry

4 inches on Mountains

Its nice to live in a part of Ireland Met Eireann know nothing about due to lack of radar and non use of Sat24.

For Example
Sligo town had little or no snow but some of those rural spots had the same or even more than Decembers snow event

Hopefully Sunday will being something similar but im not as positive as Kermit about this one. Feel theres an Atlantic fightback going to occur soon

Happygosad33 · 10-02-2018 2:06am

@Gaoth. That run expires at 23.00 Sat. Is anyone really expecting anything before that? Early hours of Sunday before the cold really digs in. Could be some wintryness in the NW before midnight but wouldn't expect much if so.

patneve2 · 10-02-2018 3:39am

Think Sunday looks quite good for western and northern areas (more so northern areas due to better progged thicknesses/lower 500 hPa temps). Also, wouldn't be surprised if the east managed to steal a few rogue graupel/snow showers on Sunday due to the stronger sun keeping those showers going over land. Monday night still all up in the air. Could range from heavy snow to heavy rain to nothing at all so would monitor closely - obviously odds stacked against us as it's very hard to get a decent snowfall out of this type of set up (its a bit more likely in February though).

nacho libre · 10-02-2018 3:55am

pauldry wrote: »

Hopefully Sunday will being something similar but im not as positive as Kermit about this one. Feel theres an Atlantic fightback going to occur soon

If by Atlantic fightback you mean a sustained period of milder weather that is unlikely in the next two-three weeks- unless the Stratospheric Warming ends up being 2 out of the 3 that does not work in our favour and somehow manages to end the current pattern we have. I get the impression M.T. Cranium does not seem to be all that convinced that our weather will be coming from the east around the 19th of this month. It must be that he thinks the daughter vortex over Canada will still be strong enough to keep us in the current pattern of brief pulses of milder air alternating with polar maritime airflow

pistolpetes11 · 10-02-2018 4:19am

All the weather that is hitting you at the moment and giving snow for how ever long is coming from ............ the Atlantic

The Atlantic is not quite at all last few just happens it’s coming with more of a polar maritime flow

pauldry wrote: »

Last night was the snowiest of the Winter so far for many parts of Co Sligo

3 inches in Calry (which is hilly)
2 inches near Tubbercurry

4 inches on Mountains

Its nice to live in a part of Ireland Met Eireann know nothing about due to lack of radar and non use of Sat24.

For Example
Sligo town had little or no snow but some of those rural spots had the same or even more than Decembers snow event

Hopefully Sunday will being something similar but im not as positive as Kermit about this one. Feel theres an Atlantic fightback going to occur soon

Oscar Bravo · 10-02-2018 9:37am

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Ireland

Later tonight and on Sunday, wintry showers will give accumulations of up to 3 cm of snow, with larger amounts on higher ground, especially in Ulster and Connacht.

Issued:

Saturday 10 February 2018 06:00

Valid:

Sunday 11 February 2018 00:01 to Sunday 11 February 2018 23:59

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2018 11:15am

The cold air ahead of the front for Monday night - but also that digging in behind continues to bring a risk of more persistent snowfall for a short time.

66-574UK.GIF?10-6

ICON also beginning to define this less of rain, more of sleet/snow...

Meanwhile for tonight - shortly after midnight a good bet for snow showers in the west - risk of snow in showers extending east not long after. Could be a dusting anywhere but a covering for many western and northwestern parts by morning.

sryanbruen · 10-02-2018 11:22am

downwiththatsor wrote: »

In 1917 they had heavy snow on April the 2nd! All is not lost, its only February and charts dont look too shabby, Sunday 9am from latest Euro4

How about blizzards on April 25th 1981?

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2018 11:42am

Snow showers packing in tomorrow.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2018 12:02pm

Beginning to think an orange snow warning may be warranted for border counties and some western counties between tonight and Monday afternoon. 5 - 10 cms (locally more and on high ground) is very possible...

2 - 5 cms (locally more and on high ground) generally elsewhere through the period.

Anyway the fun starts in the early hours:D

Meteorite58 · 10-02-2018 12:22pm

I didn't think the Showers would penetrate as far inland as is being shown now on the models although some big differences in projecting accumulations but seems to be fairly good agreement in substantial snowfall all right in parts of the W, NW, N and as Kermit said across the border counties.

JCX BXC · 10-02-2018 1:02pm

Why does that first model there always seem to think that showers originate inland?

Rebelbrowser · 10-02-2018 2:45pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Why does that first model there always seem to think that showers originate inland?

Perhaps Clare actually has a snow shield?

JCX BXC · 10-02-2018 2:50pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Perhaps Clare actually has a snow shield?

Haha I'd say so

Seriously though, that chart consistently seems to think showers don't start until they're inland, which isn't true at all!

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2018 5:09pm

Monday night looking more and more like a potential snowfall "event" for some for a time particularly the northwest.

GFS upping precipitation potential somewhat overnight now.

gerrybhoy · 10-02-2018 5:10pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Monday night looking more and more like a potential snowfall "event" for a time.

GFS upping precipitation potential overnight now.

Dublin looking at any Kermit?

Meteorite58 · 10-02-2018 5:24pm

HIRLAM's version of events to come, very cold uppers, quite fresh also giving a bitter windchill. Looks like we might be seeing some of the highest snowfall levels this winter from later tonight into tomorrow in the aforementioned areas.

JanuarySnowstor · 10-02-2018 5:35pm

Certainly an interesting few days ahead with many likely to see snow between tonight and Wednesday.

Long term I remain unconvinced that we will get the beast from the East. I think we will get a watered down version maybe with no decent bite.
Any proper cold looks to be over Canada rather than to our Northeast AND most importantly the clock ticks with every day getting longer

EDIT Actually scrap that the 12z gfs says BEAST!!

Meteorite58 · 10-02-2018 6:08pm

All that cold airmass ready to flood in over Ireland, interesting day ahead.

sdanseo · 10-02-2018 6:12pm

Big downgrades on WRF for tomorrow. Way too warm, temps of 3-5 degrees.

nmmuk-42-32-0.png?10-12

HIRLAM seems to show a bit less precip but temps just holding on

hirlamuk-1-23-0.png?10-17

Happygosad33 · 10-02-2018 6:29pm

WRF has 10 to 15cm of snow for the sweet spots at 3pm tomorrow. Increases as the run goes on. Some downgrade.

sdanseo · 10-02-2018 6:38pm

Happygosad33 wrote: »

WRF has 10 to 15cm of snow for the sweet spots at 3pm tomorrow. Increases as the run goes on. Some downgrade.

Just realised what I posted is the 6Z - meteociel doesn't have the 12Z yet for some frames.

Still looks to be a much lower amount of red than blue vs some of the runs posted last night.

Happygosad33 · 10-02-2018 6:46pm

I haven't seen earlier runs to compare. I will say it has shown completely rain a couple of times this winter when we had snow. I don't know which high resolution model has the best verification stats when it comes to snow but I've found hirlam to be pretty decent when it comes to what precipitation will be falling. Accumulated snow predictions are a different ball game, haven't a clue which one is most trustworthy. Hard to judge with showers.

Pangea · 10-02-2018 6:48pm

Temperature dropping rapidly here, it's gone from 7c to 1.7c. in the past hour or so..

Happygosad33 · 10-02-2018 7:07pm

Pangea wrote: »

Temperature dropping rapidly here, it's gone from 7c to 1.7c. in the past hour or so..

Could be some back edge wintryness for you

George Sunsnow · 10-02-2018 7:39pm

Just started raining near Arklow again after the dry sunny day that followed the earlier rain
Temp here is 9.6c having peaked at 12.1c

Jean Byrne mentioned just now that there is a risk Tuesdays front could turn to sleet and snow as it moves inland

I reckon tomorrow will see snow falling in west Clare btw perhaps settling, the showers do look like they will be beefy enough!

JCX BXC · 10-02-2018 7:41pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I reckon tomorrow will see snow falling in west Clare btw perhaps settling, the showers do look like they will be beefy enough!

I'll hold ya to that!

George Sunsnow · 10-02-2018 7:42pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

I'll hold ya to that!

Saturday PM (10th) - Tuesday AM (13th), Snow and Ice

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