47.9% of NI would back a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit'

Avatar MIA · 31-12-2017 02:53PM

Just spent a few minutes looking at the 2016/2017 NI budget and I've knocked £1.9B off the annual bill already.

That's the amount the Executive pay in pensions. That would need to be funded by the UK going forward as they received the funds to begin with to cover these costs (they need to do something similar for EU pensions because of Brexit). That took 10 minutes, and we're already down to £7b. :pac:

Blazer · 31-12-2017 02:58PM

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Just spent a few minutes looking at the 2016/2017 NI budget and I've knocked £1.9B off the annual bill already.

That's the amount the Executive pay in pensions. That would need to be funded by the UK going forward as they received the funds to begin with to cover these costs (they need to do something similar for EU pensions because of Brexit). That took 10 minutes, and we're already down to £7b. :pac:

Congrats. Now we can use that money towards enforcing customs borders between the EU ie us and the UK.
But that’s what we need. Detailed breakdown of the costs etc and how we can balance them etc

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 02:59PM

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Just spent a few minutes looking at the 2016/2017 NI budget and I've knocked £1.9B off the annual bill already.

That's the amount the Executive pay in pensions. That would need to be funded by the UK going forward as they received the funds to begin with to cover these costs (they need to do something similar for EU pensions because of Brexit). That took 10 minutes, and we're already down to £7b. :pac:

People like Blazer don't get it. We cannot come to a reliable figure until all of this is discussed.

What we do know is that 60% seem to have no problem opting for a UI even at a cost of 9bn a year, presumably because it would pay a dividend in the long term in more than economic terms.
That is something that needs to be seriously looked at. And it cannot be done by some random people doing the internet equivalent of toting up the totals on the back of a fag packet. Or plucking selective deficits out of the air to illustrate a point.

Avatar MIA · 31-12-2017 03:02PM

Blazer wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/www.newstalk.com/AMP/How-much-money-does-Northern-Ireland-really-get-from-the-EU

A couple of things.

The above suggests that NI as part of the UK pretty much breaks even on the EU funding. Whereas in a UI it would definitely receive funding being a poor region.

Would the NE need investment, Yes. But that's considered exactly that - an investment, with a net gain eventually.

Found another €30m in the budget. RHI. That'd be phased out quick smart.

Blazer · 31-12-2017 03:02PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

People like Blazer don't get it. We cannot come to a reliable figure until all of this is discussed.

What we do know is that 60% seem to have no problem opting for a UI even at a cost of 9bn a year, presumably because it would pay a dividend in the long term in more than economic terms.
That is something that needs to be seriously looked at. And it cannot be done by some random people doing the internet equivalent of toting up the totals on the back of a fag packet. Or plucking selective deficits out of the air to illustrate a point.

No that wasn’t the poll question which you are now trying to change to suit your agenda.
The question was simply, would you support it.
It’s people like you who don’t get it.
I already said we need a detailed breakdown on what it would cost and no bull**** fairy numbers based on tourism etc which can be easily manufactured

Avatar MIA · 31-12-2017 03:04PM

Blazer wrote: »

Congrats. Now we can use that money towards enforcing customs borders between the EU ie us and the UK.

There's going to be a soft brexit, and the UK coming back into the EU in time once a Labour government gets a chance to go back to the people in a referendum once the penny (or pound more like) drops.

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 03:11PM

Blazer wrote: »

No that wasn’t the poll question which you are now trying to change to suit your agenda.
The question was simply, would you support it.
It’s people like you who don’t get it.
I already said we need a detailed breakdown on what it would cost and no bull**** fairy numbers based on tourism etc which can be easily manufactured

Tourism is 'bull****'?
Deficit figures can be manufactured to suit agendas too you know.

* 'Opting for' would be the same thing to me as 'support' btw

Blazer · 31-12-2017 03:13PM

Avatar MIA wrote: »

There's going to be a soft brexit, and the UK coming back into the EU in time once a Labour government gets a chance to go back to the people in a referendum once the penny (or pound more like) drops.

They should.
The whole thing has been a disaster since Day 1 and Cameron has screwed the country over for his own personal gain.
May should take the hit and say "we're going to have another referendum and this time each party must verify their facts before spouting nonsense."
She'd probably get fired but history would reflect kindly on her as opposed to Cameron.
That's of course if the youth actually get off their holes and vote rather than sitting on their asses at home and then complaining when the vote didn't go their way.
It would also leave the UK in a strong position with the EU to renegotiate certain terms and conditions.
A lot of EU countries are not happy with the hardline stance being taken against the UK as it will directly affect them too.

Blazer · 31-12-2017 03:15PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Tourism is 'bull****'?
Deficit figures can be manufactured to suit agendas too you know.

* 'Opting for' would be the same thing to me as 'support' btw

I mean as in using so called projected figures to go from eg
5 million people visit Ireland and NI every year. With Unification we expect 10 million to visit.
Those type of projections I talk about where Unification will magically conjure an extra 5 million visitors a year etc.

Avatar MIA · 31-12-2017 03:19PM

Blazer wrote: »

5 million people visit Ireland and NI every year. With Unification we expect 10 million to visit.

Failte Ireland for 2016 said 8.74 million foreign visitors visited the ROI and 1.36m visited NI. That's 10.1m already.

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 03:19PM

Blazer wrote: »

I mean as in using so called projected figures to go from eg
5 million people visit Ireland and NI every year. With Unification we expect 10 million to visit.
Those type of projections I talk about where Unification will magically conjure an extra 5 million visitors a year etc.

If we are going to be discussing things that will happen in the 'future' all figures are 'projections' Profits and losses.
Do you understand that?

What you have to do is work out what figures are credible and which are not.

Blazer · 31-12-2017 03:20PM

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Failte Ireland for 2016 said 8.74 million foreign visitors visited the ROI and 1.36m visited NI. That's 10.1m already.

I just used those figures as an example.

Avatar MIA · 31-12-2017 03:20PM

Blazer wrote: »

I just used those figures as an example.

Ah, okay

Blazer · 31-12-2017 03:23PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If we are going to be discussing things that will happen in the 'future' all figures are 'projections' Profits and losses.
Do you understand that?

What you have to do is work out what figures are credible and which are not.

er that's what I'be been saying.
so we need a breakdown of how much NI will cost to support.
How much we will get from the UK and the EU to make it happen.
What will happen to the public sector in NI.
What will happen to the Social Welfare rates on both sides.
What tax increases are necessary to fund it etc etc.
Only then can people make a uniformed decision.
We don't want a brexit type referendum where lots of lies were spun on both sides etc.

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 03:26PM

Blazer wrote: »

er that's what I'be been saying.
so we need a breakdown of how much NI will cost to support.
How much we will get from the UK and the EU to make it happen.
What will happen to the public sector in NI.
What will happen to the Social Welfare rates on both sides.
What tax increases are necessary to fund it etc etc.
Only then can people make a uniformed decision.
We don't want a brexit type referendum where lots of lies were spun on both sides etc.

Says the person who adamantly claimed the North costs 10bn to run, just a few posts ago.

Blazer wrote:

there is no magic fix to requiring over 10 billion to support NI.

Good to see that you are willing to change your mind so quickly.

murphaph · 31-12-2017 03:27PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What questions?
The 'have you stopped beating your wife' style ones? I already have.

I asked you to simply answer yes or no to whether or not you'd accept a few loyalist bombings and some dead people in Dublin as a price worth paying for unification. I believe you would be prepared to let someone else make that blood sacrifice for something you hold so dear. But you have refused to answer it. I believe several of the (to use a phrase by one of them) "rabid" republicans on the thread would also consider some death and destruction on the streets of Dublin to be a price worth paying for unification, but all skirt around the issue and won't show their cards.

Blazer · 31-12-2017 03:28PM

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Ah, okay

Well I'm eating lunch so I thought people would get the general gist of what I was saying

ie read the below. Projected €36 billion boost etc but read the below and its bull****. Also smart economic policy? The last time we had that was with Charlie McCreavey who encouraged everyone to save with the help of the SSIA scheme and the pension fund he implemented which was stripped away

While these effects occur in a static global economic environment, under ideal political conditions, they underline the potential of political and economic unification when it is supported by smart economic policy,” said Dr Hubner.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/united-irish-economy-could-deliver-boost-of-36bn-388959.html

murphaph · 31-12-2017 03:30PM

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Just spent a few minutes looking at the 2016/2017 NI budget and I've knocked £1.9B off the annual bill already.

That's the amount the Executive pay in pensions. That would need to be funded by the UK going forward as they received the funds to begin with to cover these costs (they need to do something similar for EU pensions because of Brexit). That took 10 minutes, and we're already down to £7b. :pac:

Oh dear oh dear. You've tied yourself up in knots here.

The UK has a share of EU pension liabilities to cover after ceding from the union. NI would also have a share of UK pension liabilities to cover after it ceded from the union with GB.

There's only so much the UK will pick up the tab for.

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 03:32PM

murphaph wrote: »

I asked you to simply answer yes or no to whether or not you'd accept a few loyalist bombings and some dead people in Dublin as a price worth paying for unification. I believe you would be prepared to let someone else make that blood sacrifice for something you hold so dear. But you have refused to answer it. I believe several of the (to use a phrase by one of them) "rabid" republicans on the thread would also consider some death and destruction on the streets of Dublin to be a price worth paying for unification, but all skirt around the issue and won't show their cards.

And I answered you.
I would not be prepared to allow violence or the threat of it, to deter me from doing something to stop the cyclical violence in the country as a result of partition.

There was a paramilitary shooting just last night in northern Ireland.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/terrified-children-witness-belfast-paramilitary-shooting-1.3341944

Blazer · 31-12-2017 03:44PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Says the person who adamantly claimed the North costs 10bn to run, just a few posts ago.

Good to see that you are willing to change your mind so quickly.

No I didn’t.
I just said that’s what it currently costs in excess to support NI.
We need a breakdown of how we’re going to mitigate that figure.

Obviously financials aren’t your strong point so you just stick to your romanticized UI where it happens, doesn’t cost a penny and everyone lives happily ever after.

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 03:47PM

Blazer wrote: »

No I didn’t.
I just said that’s what it currently costs in excess to support NI.
We need a breakdown of how we’re going to mitigate that figure.

Obviously financials aren’t your strong point so you just stick to your romanticized UI where it happens, doesn’t cost a penny and everyone lives happily ever after.

:D I quoted where you claimed a figure.

Can you now quote where I did the following:

Blazer wrote:

so you just stick to your romanticized UI where it happens, doesn’t cost a penny and everyone lives happily ever after.

Blazer · 31-12-2017 03:58PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

:D I quoted where you claimed a figure.

Can you now quote where I did the following:

I think it’s apparent to everyone here that you’re simply twisting facts and posts to suit your agenda which is Reunification at any cost.
Tell me this?
Let’s say Reunification referendum happens on both sides.
And NI approves it but the south rejects it or vica versa.
What would your stance be then? People didn’t understand it and we need to vote again until both sides vote yes etc or would you accept the results and move on?
If it came to a referendum and we have proper facts and figures on both sides and it made economic sense to do so I’d wholeheartedly vote yes but I’m not going to let someone’s romantic ideal of an United ireland sway me.

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 04:01PM

Blazer wrote: »

I think it’s apparent to everyone here that you’re simply twisting facts and posts to suit your agenda which is Reunification at any cost.
Tell me this?
Let’s say Reunification referendum happens on both sides.
And NI approves it but the south rejects it or vica versa.
What would your stance be then? People didn’t understand it and we need to vote again until both sides vote yes etc or would you accept the results and move on?
If it came to a referendum and we have proper facts and figures on both sides and it made economic sense to do so I’d wholeheartedly vote yes but I’m not going to let someone’s romantic ideal of an United ireland sway me.

My stance would be, work harder at convincing people for the next referendum.
I think you may be confusing me with somebody else.
I don't have any romantic notions of a UI.

If you can quote one, as asked before, please do it.

C14N · 31-12-2017 04:04PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

60% of Southerners would back unity even with a €9b annual cost:

https://www.irelandthinks.ie/single-post/2017/12/28/Support-for-a-united-Ireland-dramatically-increases

I believe it. A United Ireland is a politically very popular idea in the south. I think most people realise it will cost money, but that it's also an idea worth paying for. If it didn't cost any money, I think it would be almost unanimous approval.

A lot of people are painting very bleak images of what will happen if they rejoin, based on the fact that NI is generally worse-off and has a more expansive welfare state. I understand that this will be a problem in the short term, but surely in the event of unification, some of these differences would be ironed out. NI would hardly be a perpetual albatross if work was done to integrate it well.

It's not even 30 years since East Germany rejoined West and while there are still some issues there and the east is generally considered to be the poorer of the two, on the whole Germany has become and stayed one of the global economic powerhouses and the defacto leader of Europe. This with two countries who were so divided for decades that they had an extremely strict closed border with a literal wall to stop people from crossing it, and with a government that didn't just have a strong welfare state, but which was literally communist.

I'm sure there's more to it, but it's hard to see that and not think that re-unification can be made to work.

Avatar MIA · 31-12-2017 04:04PM

murphaph wrote: »

Oh dear oh dear. You've tied yourself up in knots here.

The UK has a share of EU pension liabilities to cover after ceding from the union. NI would also have a share of UK pension liabilities to cover after it ceded from the union with GB.

There's only so much the UK will pick up the tab for.

Would it be anywhere near the €1.9B saving, No? I didn't think so. So, Knot off

Blazer · 31-12-2017 04:12PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

My stance would be, work harder at convincing people for the next referendum.
I think you may be confusing me with somebody else.
I don't have any romantic notions of a UI.

If you can quote one, as asked before, please do it.

Ok my apologies if I took you up wrong.
But you see. You’ve just said that you’d work for the next referendum.
What if the next referendum was say another 20 years away? What then?
I’m just curious that’s all.

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 04:15PM

Blazer wrote: »

Ok my apologies if I took you up wrong.
But you see. You’ve just said that you’d work for the next referendum.
What if the next referendum was say another 20 years away? What then?
I’m just curious that’s all.

I would work towards it.

murphaph · 31-12-2017 05:01PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And I answered you.
I would not be prepared to allow violence or the threat of it, to deter me from doing something to stop the cyclical violence in the country as a result of partition.

There was a paramilitary shooting just last night in northern Ireland.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/terrified-children-witness-belfast-paramilitary-shooting-1.3341944

So your answer is yes, you would accept some death and destruction on the streets of Dublin as an acceptable price of a united Ireland. That's all I need to know.

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 05:05PM

murphaph wrote: »

So your answer is yes, you would accept some death and destruction on the streets of Dublin as an acceptable price of a united Ireland. That's all I need to know.

And you will 'accept' the ongoing toll from partition. And any violence accruing from a rejection by the south of a majority vote in the north.

Two can play the shlock horror 'accept' game. The 'have you stopped beating your wife' style question. Carry on.

murphaph · 31-12-2017 05:07PM

Avatar MIA wrote: »

There's going to be a soft brexit, and the UK coming back into the EU in time once a Labour government gets a chance to go back to the people in a referendum once the penny (or pound more like) drops.

Hopefully. In that case of course the chit chat about a Brexit driven UI will cease.

47.9% of NI would back a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit'

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