Brexit discussion thread III

lawred2 · 05-12-2017 7:49pm

tomwaterford wrote: »

Tbf the dup are part of a coalition....begs the question of what's the point....if they are continuesly being excluded through?

They are not in a coalition. It is confidence and supply arrangement. There are no DUP positions in government.

Enzokk · 05-12-2017 7:50pm

tomwaterford wrote: »

Tbf the dup are part of a coalition....begs the question of what's the point....if they are continuesly being excluded through?

I can be corrected but they are not part of a coalition. They have a supply and confidence agreement only. They do not get to tell the Conservatives how to run the country, although that seems to be the way it is right now. They got paid their silver and they need to uphold their end of the contract.

Conservatives agree pact with DUP to support May government

I find it interesting that the DUP have agreed to support the Conservatives in any votes on exiting the EU,

Other key points of the agreement include:
The DUP will support the Tories on all Brexit and security legislation

What if the vote is for NI to have a special deal? Does that not mean they have to support it?

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-12-2017 7:51pm

I smell a 'public referendum' on the 'shape of the future border' for the North, may as well get the politicians out for a day's work, megaphones, doorstepping, flyposting etc.

Average Joe may just be concerned with getting their flight out of DUB with as little fuss as possible for the annual week on a sun holiday. Remain was 56% on the last count.

lawred2 · 05-12-2017 7:53pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yeh, but are we not seeing one of the most pathetic and desparate clings to power we have ever seen?

Most PM's would have thrown the towel in by now and one so fabulously embarrassed as she was yesterday would have be gone before supper last night.

Theresa May is amoral. An anti Brexit campaigner leading the Brexit charge. She wants power above all.

steddyeddy · 05-12-2017 7:54pm

Enzokk wrote: »

I can be corrected but they are not part of a coalition. They have a supply and confidence agreement only. They do not get to tell the Conservatives how to run the country, although that seems to be the way it is right now. They got paid their silver and they need to uphold their end of the contract.

Conservatives agree pact with DUP to support May government

I find it interesting that the DUP have agreed to support the Conservatives in any votes on exiting the EU,

What if the vote is for NI to have a special deal? Does that not mean they have to support it?

Well what they have done will have a bigger economic consequence than any budget decision they could have made. The DUP pulling the plug on the Brexit deal seen the pound take a further tumble.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/5060443/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-sterling-falls-theresa-may-jean-claude-juncker-brexit-deal/

steddyeddy · 05-12-2017 7:55pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yeh, but are we not seeing one of the most pathetic and desparate clings to power we have ever seen?

Most PM's would have thrown the towel in by now and one so fabulously embarrassed as she was yesterday would have be gone before supper last night.

We are, but it's funny to watch. I used to feel sorry for May, that is until she got into a deal with the DUP which ruins the required rigorous impartiality required by the Good Friday agreement.

Speaking of which, I think there's a fair point to be made the the DUP-Tory deal is breaking the GFA. She's letting the DUP decide on the future of the North without taking into account the views communities other than loyalists living there.

Bar_Prop · 05-12-2017 7:56pm

Dario Melted Sunlamp wrote: »

I smell a 'public referendum' on the 'shape of the future border' for the North, may as well get the politicians out for a day's work, megaphones, doorstepping, flyposting etc.

Average Joe may just be concerned with getting their flight out of DUB with as little fuss as possible for the annual week on a sun holiday. Remain was 56% on the last count.

Can't see there being a referendum on any topic in any part of the UK for a generation at the very least.

Tiger20 · 05-12-2017 7:56pm

Imagine, in talks about your future after a hard won struggle for independence, you face a bitter compromise that proposes to separate 1/4 of your country from the rest and that will never satisfy the hardliners at home. Is this the U.K. 2017 or Ireland 1921! If seems history does repeat itself, and it has a large dose of irony about it

Un1corn · 05-12-2017 8:00pm

The Irish government should probably just pretend to be unhappy even if they get the deal they want. The DUP will instinctively reject anything that the Irish government likes. Honestly, for the sake of the country somebody should cop on and re run the referendum with a clearer more precise question. "Should the United Kingdom leave the European Union? " is simply not precise enough and it is a hugely complex issue.

Nobody has really thought about the impact and now the collective **** is hitting the fan the very union is in grave danger. As an Irish man it's hard not to find the whole thing entertaining, but lets not kid ourselves. The United Kingdom is our best friend and trading partner and we don't want them to collapse.

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-12-2017 8:02pm

Bar_Prop wrote: »

Can't see there being a referendum on any topic in any part of the UK for a generation at the very least.

When Scotland sees it's post-brexit export spreadsheet for whisky, sheep or whatever they send out, they'll want another one, and certainly won't wait a generation.

The current stance (hard border) from the owners of 28% FPVotes, is probably slightly offensive to the majority of the North's people, who don't even want a Brexit.

J Mysterio · 05-12-2017 8:07pm

breatheme wrote: »

The deadlines are enshrined in Article 50. The UK has triggered said article with no plan or positions and only started half-baking them way into after the negotiating period started.

steddyeddy · 05-12-2017 8:08pm

Scotland should do the sensible thing and get away from the UK. Currently a government of little Englanders backed up by a loyalist party are making the decisions for the whole UK. This can't go on.

Bar_Prop · 05-12-2017 8:08pm

Dario Melted Sunlamp wrote: »

Bar_Prop wrote: »

Can't see there being a referendum on any topic in any part of the UK for a generation at the very least.

When Scotland sees it's post-brexit export spreadsheet for whisky, sheep or whatever they send out, they'll want another one, and certainly won't wait a generation.

The current stance (hard border) from the owners of 28% FPVotes, is probably slightly offensive to the majority of the North's people, who don't even want a Brexit.

I dare say you're right in both cases but Scotland has to wait until 2021 before they can ask again, and in NI? "Secretary of State's discretion". I won't be holding my breath.

Beechwoodspark · 05-12-2017 8:11pm

It was farcical yesterday seeing Scotland, then the bould mayor of London, then Wales all clamouring to try get the same deal as was being offered to NI.

My Patience is wearing thin with this level of idiocy. Brexit Britain =long term national decline.

Odhinn · 05-12-2017 8:11pm

Dario Melted Sunlamp wrote: »

That holds strong potential for an early bet for 2018, 5 is a bit low for JC to be the saviour, will wait for live election event and double digit returns.

(By the way, I also cleaned up on Trump and Brexit also :pac:).

I'm amazed and somewhat appalled at the odds given rees mogg to take over from may. I would have thought him more a fringe figure.

FrancieBrady · 05-12-2017 8:12pm

Bar_Prop wrote: »

I dare say you're right in both cases but Scotland has to wait until 2021 before they can ask again, and in NI? "Secretary of State's discretion". I won't be holding my breath.

After yesterday the Secretary might be easily persuaded.

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-12-2017 8:14pm

Odhinn wrote: »

I'm amazed and somewhat appalled at the odds given rees mogg to take over from may. I would have thought him more a fringe figure.

Most people think he's a 'cartoon sketch figure': of a typified conservative by a sketch artist from the 1950's, and not actually a living entity.

That of the 'where's wally' comic character.

The Rape of Lucretia · 05-12-2017 8:16pm

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!
Davis said that the regulatory alignment was intended to be for the whole of the UK.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

In what way can it be argued that becoming an regulatory dependency of the EU improves the current UK situation ?

Surely he is dissembling, and that was not the intention yesterday morning. They only meant to make NI such a dependency and cleave it away from the part of the UK that he sees matters - GB. NI is a troublesome 'Irish Problem' that is getting in the way of the real UK getting on with its Brexit plans.

And just a hypothetical curio, if anyone knows the answer - does Westminster have the power to jettison NI from the UK ?

Odhinn · 05-12-2017 8:16pm

Dario Melted Sunlamp wrote: »

Most people think he's a 'cartoon sketch figure': of a typified conservative by a sketch artist from the 1950's, and not actually a living entity.

That of the 'where's wally' comic character.

That's it. A Thatcher-era spitting image character. I've heard him on the radio numerous times, and the prospect of him in charge of a nation anywhere near us is worrisome. He's like Tebbit without the charm.

Beechwoodspark · 05-12-2017 8:17pm

Dario Melted Sunlamp wrote: »

Most people think he's a 'cartoon sketch figure': of a typified conservative by a sketch artist from the 1950's, and not actually a living entity.

That of the 'where's wally' comic character.

He's a stiff upper lip aristocrat type that the great British public wet themselves over every so often.

Bulldog spirit yadda yadda.

He's also extremely rich.

Bar_Prop · 05-12-2017 8:20pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

After yesterday the Secretary might be easily persuaded.

The last two major referenda in the UK have resulted in this mess and a ship (not) being called Boaty McBoat Face.

devnull · 05-12-2017 8:20pm

Being reported by David Blevins on Sky News that a Government spokesperson has contacted him and dismissed the suggestion by the DUP that the Government played a role in holding back documents from them.

The spokesperson said that the Irish government had no role between EU and British Government so could not have any involvement about which documents were released to the DUP.

unit 1 · 05-12-2017 8:20pm

This whole brexit thing is going on far too long. Remember Cameron was supposed to trigger article 50 "within days" if they voted to leave.

The eu and ourselves should calmly stand back and let the clock run down, without any further negotiations with the uk. Whether we like it or not the uk, and that includes ni voted to leave.
The only deal accecptable is a rethink of the referendum, which can come about when the uk look over the precipice.
If they do not do so within the timeframe then the negotiations can start on trade deals, with financial assistance from the eu to us to eleviate any problems (given our size not a problem)
If a rethink is supportive of staying in then article 50 can be ignored, (personally I would be in favour as long as sterling goes and is replaced by the euro) if assurances are given regarding good behaviour.
If they still want out then let them, the eu and ourselves will survive, even with a hard border.
Contrary to what many people say ni is a different country, ie the uk. If their own self determination wants them to leave them the consequences lie with them. Any consequneces for us will given our size be offset by assistance from europe.
For far too long the uk has been a truculent member with ideas above its station and the root cause of our troubles letting them keep sterling, and hence the exit door available was a mistake. Given the size and diversity of europe I doubt very much if they would be missed.

lawred2 · 05-12-2017 8:22pm

devnull wrote: »

Being reported by David Blevins on Sky News that a Government spokesperson has contacted him and dismissed the suggestion by the DUP that the Government played a role in holding back documents from them.

The spokesperson said that the Irish government had no role between EU and British Government so could not have any involvement about which documents were released to the DUP.

lol

For the first time in history, the DUP tactic of lies and bluster is being laid bare for all to see.

Beechwoodspark · 05-12-2017 8:24pm

devnull wrote: »

Being reported by David Blevins on Sky News that a Government spokesperson has contacted him and dismissed the suggestion by the DUP that the Government played a role in holding back documents from them.

The spokesperson said that the Irish government had no role between EU and British Government so could not have any involvement about which documents were released to the DUP.

If true -what a cack handed move by Arlene.

I wonder which genius in the DUP came up with this little conspiracy theory that was exposed as BS within a matter of minutes. Clowns!!

The Rape of Lucretia · 05-12-2017 8:24pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Its clear that no matter what the Irish did the DUP was never going to agree to this and it lies totally at the feet of May to have made it sound like she could make a deal when she hadn't got it signed off by the cabinet.

Maybe the Irish leak did everyone concerned a service by blowing it out of the water before it went further, sourced relations even further, and ended up wasting even more time as the parties tried to back out of this blind alley.
Arleen owes the Irish team a bank thanks methinks.

For Forks Sake · 05-12-2017 8:25pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

It was farcical yesterday seeing Scotland, then the bould mayor of London, then Wales all clamouring to try get the same deal as was being offered to NI.

My Patience is wearing thin with this level of idiocy. Brexit Britain =long term national decline.

Whatever about the Scots and London (and I think Khan was being somewhat tongue in cheek), the Brexit-supporting Welsh can do one.

steddyeddy · 05-12-2017 8:29pm

devnull wrote: »

Being reported by David Blevins on Sky News that a Government spokesperson has contacted him and dismissed the suggestion by the DUP that the Government played a role in holding back documents from them.

The spokesperson said that the Irish government had no role between EU and British Government so could not have any involvement about which documents were released to the DUP.

Jesus that's damning and embarrassing. It doesn't matter to the DUP though. They'll only rationalise it that they're the victims in all this and it's Dublin bullying the UK.

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-12-2017 8:29pm

Only a matter of time before Blair comes out of the woodwork, just to crank things up a bit and fill the comment sections on the Dailymail's website.

The Rape of Lucretia · 05-12-2017 8:29pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Vaguely. Squirelly little man?

Thats the one. Lovely hair. Lovely.

Calina · 05-12-2017 8:30pm

Bar_Prop wrote: »

The last two major referenda in the UK have resulted in this mess and a ship (not) being called Boaty McBoat Face.

TBF, the thing with the boat was not a referendum.

That being said, I really have no idea what the future of the UK holds at the moment. Yesterday was a debacle.

On the subject of an extension to the Article 50 exit negotiation period, I don't see the UK getting it unless there is either a complete change of government or it is so manifestly in the interests of the EU that it is unarguable. One of the key items missing in terms of perception of the UK right now is a complete lack of good faith and that would be fairly necessary for any sort of extension I think.

Currently, we have no idea when the next election will be although in theory it should not be until June 2021 based on the fixed terms legislation. I cannot see them lasting that long so the question mark has to be over the ending.

Regarding the interests of the EU, that's more to play for. The EU seems to be anxious to move on but black swan (hate that term) events cannot be ruled out particularly in the context of the mess across the Atlantic. If the UK escaped this mess because of some other extraneous issue either war or some other left field event on the non-EU international stage, I would not be surprised.

Regarding comments about who decided to keep Arlene Foster in the dark: 1) she's not an MP so she has no rights to be making demands anyway 2) they are not coalition partners anyway so have no rights to be making demands and 3) even if they had, Parliament decides ultimately.

I think the comments regarding the Irish government are linked with the blowback the DUP got after yesterday. There did not seem to be any cares about bringing down the deal yesterday but today, we are looking for someone else to blame.

Of more concern to me are David Davis's comments during the urgent question today. Many of them are at odds with what the UK was prepared to agree to yesterday. If he is telling the truth then the UK is looking for de facto single market membership for the entire country. If what was due to be agreed yesterday reflects reality, they were only looking for it for NI. These are mutually incompatible positions.

I honestly thought Brexit was a really bad decision but I am floored by how utterly badly the UK has gone about this. There seems to be no coherent policy underpinning what they are trying to do.

Bar_Prop · 05-12-2017 8:33pm

I might have been slightly facetious about Boaty McBoat Face, my point being however that it will take an act of God (other deities are available) to force the UK government to put anything to the public in the future.

An Ciarraioch · 05-12-2017 8:40pm

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

In what way can it be argued that becoming an regulatory dependency of the EU improves the current UK situation ?

Surely he is dissembling, and that was not the intention yesterday morning. They only meant to make NI such a dependency and cleave it away from the part of the UK that he sees matters - GB. NI is a troublesome 'Irish Problem' that is getting in the way of the real UK getting on with its Brexit plans.

And just a hypothetical curio, if anyone knows the answer - does Westminster have the power to jettison NI from the UK ?

Was reading Paul Bew's "Chronicle of the Troubles" lately - apparently the UK government had planned a withdrawal shortly after the Loyalist strike in '74, but perhaps understandably, our Coalition government didn't fancy policing the Troubles, and declined the offer. In any case, the GFA would rule out any such unilateral withdrawal now.

An Ciarraioch · 05-12-2017 8:42pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

After yesterday the Secretary might be easily persuaded.

Would likely require a Nationalist majority in a Stormont election - perhaps even 50% of the seats, rather than merely more than the Unionist total.

Infini · 05-12-2017 8:42pm

Dario Melted Sunlamp wrote: »

Only a matter of time before Blair comes out of the woodwork, just to crank things up a bit and fill the comment sections on the Dailymail's website.

Way behind the curve there mate, he's already actively involved in trying to reverse this farce.

Blowfish · 05-12-2017 8:44pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yeh, but are we not seeing one of the most pathetic and desparate clings to power we have ever seen?

Most PM's would have thrown the towel in by now and one so fabulously embarrassed as she was yesterday would have be gone before supper last night.

Leaving before the 15th deadline doesn't make sense, if there's no progress by then though she could leave just after so election could be done and dusted before the next round in March.

Bar_Prop · 05-12-2017 8:50pm

She will not go willingly, she'll hang on in the hope of a Falklands War equivalent presenting itself.

Calina · 05-12-2017 8:52pm

Blowfish wrote: »

Leaving before the 15th deadline doesn't make sense, if there's no progress by then though she could leave just after so election could be done and dusted before the next round in March.

I don't know that we can count on an election though, not a national one anyway. If she leaves, the Tories would need a new leader first

In a way, there's an element of uncharted waters here.

FrancieBrady · 05-12-2017 8:53pm

I don't think I have ever seen such despair and frustration outside of dealing with war or conflict.

One EU ambassador told the Guardian the failure to reach a deal on Northern Ireland was a microcosm of a wider problem. “At root the problem is that [May] seems incapable of making a decision and is afraid of her own shadow,” the source said.

“We cannot go on like this, with no idea what the UK wants. She just has to have the conversation with her own cabinet, and if that upsets someone, or someone resigns, so be it. She has to say what kind of trading relationship she is seeking. We cannot do it for her, and she cannot defer forever.”

The whole article is very depressing.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/we-cant-go-on-like-this-mood-of-resignation-in-eu-as-brexit-talks-stutter

Roanmore · 05-12-2017 9:11pm

Water John wrote: »

funny watching Tommy Gorman interview her, and all his body language and voice says, 'I don't believe you', when she says the Irish Govn't insisted that the UK did not show the DUP, the wording.

I think her own body language was telling as well, hesitates slightly and closes the eyes briefly. I turned to my wife and said she's lying.

Beechwoodspark · 05-12-2017 9:17pm

Roanmore wrote: »

I think her own body language was telling as well, hesitates slightly and closes the eyes briefly. I turned to my wife and said she's lying.

It's such a stupid lie as well. The Irish govt dealt with the EU task force who in turn dealt with the British negotiating team.

It's much simpler. The British kept the text away from the DUP for some reason...

Blowfish · 05-12-2017 9:17pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The whole article is very depressing.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/we-cant-go-on-like-this-mood-of-resignation-in-eu-as-brexit-talks-stutter

Add in this one too: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/03/free-trade-deals-prove-strain-whitehall-staff/.

As it turns out, international trade deals are a bit more complicated than they thought and you can't just copy and paste them...

“Originally it was portrayed as a ‘copy and paste’ job by the Department for International Trade, but everyone is now realising there are some quite complicated issues sitting in these agreements that aren’t directly transposable.”
Most complex of all is the question of “rules of origin” requirements, in which countries must demonstrate that a certain proportion of a manufactured good is made from components and materials drawn from inside the EU.
For example, if the UK leaves the EU customs union after Brexit, a UK-built car will have an average of 41pc “local content”, when most trade deals require 50pc to 55pc to qualify for exemptions.

Enzokk · 05-12-2017 9:18pm

Calina wrote: »

Of more concern to me are David Davis's comments during the urgent question today. Many of them are at odds with what the UK was prepared to agree to yesterday. If he is telling the truth then the UK is looking for de facto single market membership for the entire country. If what was due to be agreed yesterday reflects reality, they were only looking for it for NI. These are mutually incompatible positions.

I honestly thought Brexit was a really bad decision but I am floored by how utterly badly the UK has gone about this. There seems to be no coherent policy underpinning what they are trying to do.

I don't think David Davis's was looking for equivalence for the whole UK. If they were then it would have been in the wording of the original agreement. It would have sped along trade talk as well and you would have seen a lot of positive news from most sources if that was the case.

I think he is just covering for himself and the UK government. He knows if the DUP kicks up too much fuss then the government is done for, especially if they seek to go at it alone and not with cross party support from the SNP and Labour. So you have those in charge juggling so many balls in the air at the moment but there is just no way to keep catching them all.

Itssoeasy · 05-12-2017 9:19pm

Bar_Prop wrote: »

She will not go willingly, she'll hang on in the hope of a Falklands War equivalent presenting itself.

I don't think the Spanish are going to invade Gibraltar chief.

Jim2007 · 05-12-2017 9:19pm

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

And just a hypothetical curio, if anyone knows the answer - does Westminster have the power to jettison NI from the UK ?

Well NI was created as a serious of acts or parliament, starting with the Government of Ireland Act 1920, so just as they enacted the original acts, they could in theory at least amend or repeal the acts. What they would put in it's place and how it would impact the GFA is another issue?

J Mysterio · 05-12-2017 9:23pm

I'm surprised how balanced Sky News is. Also pleased to see that their correspondent is doing a good job and is getting really stuck in. Good interview with Stephen Donnelly there outside the dail.

Jim2007 · 05-12-2017 9:33pm

solodeogloria wrote: »

It's also interesting that the appetite amongst the EU27 is waning on taking away Euro derivatives clearing from London with a number of regulators saying they feel hosting central counterparties for OTC derivatives is too risky in their member states.

As usual your understanding of the financial world lets you down! What is good about the EU cherry picking the financial services sector and leaving the high risk stuff behind with the UK taxpayer on the hook if it goes wrong? Not alone that, but if you fully appreciated the context of the article, you'd know that the intention would be to closely supervise it from the EU side to make sure all the risk remains with the UK.

A cool idea from the EU side, all the benefits with the UK tax payer on the hook if it goes wrong.

BonnieSituation · 05-12-2017 9:34pm

charlie14 wrote: »

I would have thought being Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade would involve at least a bit of diplomacy.
To go talking about a United Ireland in the middle of discussions on avoiding a hard border certainly wasn`t very diplomatic imo.

Ah come on Charlie. If he didn't say that the Dupers would have found some other issue. It really doesn't matter what a Dublin govt will say.

I don't get why Nationalists are constantly not allowed to "aspire" but Unionism gets to gloat at every turn.

Some of the gash that came out yesterday was ridiculous. Junior going on how the "EU must regret giving the Republic a veto"... Our sovereignty as an independent state and member of the EU gave us that veto. Moron.

The DUP sold the north down the swanny yesterday and the rest of Britain. Completely overplayed their hand and they only get to do that once.

I feel like we are watching the last throes of Ulster Unionism. It's great.

devnull · 05-12-2017 9:36pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

I'm surprised how balanced Sky News is. Also pleased to see that their correspondent is doing a good job and is getting really stuck in. Good interview with Stephen Donnelly there outside the dail.

I've watched it closely the last few months as it's often showing in the office canteen and generally it's been very good and the fact they have one correspondent based in Belfast and another based in Dublin, both of which are natives of their respective countries rather than someone who is just drafted in from the mainland is a big help with that.

If you look at the comments on Facebook posts by Sky News in relation to News articles in relation to Brexit, it's pretty scary. There are a huge number of people posting bull about the EU and completely out of touch accusing Sky of being biased against Brexit, although I'm suspicious that a lot of it is the work of Russian Bots.

Bar_Prop · 05-12-2017 9:52pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I feel like we are watching the last throes of Ulster Unionism. It's great.

I reckon you're a decade or two early for the wake just yet.

Brexit discussion thread III

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