Aer Lingus Fleet/Routes Discussion

alancostello · 18-11-2017 01:01AM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Nothing has been confirmed.

From a few posts I’ve seen, people seem to think this is a Ballsy move or punt by EI. I can’t imagine them taking a punt, they strike me as very conservative, if launching this route 4x week, I would guess they know the demand is there.

EI have access to massive amounts of data through IAG, launching this route they know nearly exactly what the load factors will be. Kavanagh has said that every route launched since the takeover has been profitable from day one, and this is why.

Van.Bosch · 18-11-2017 01:10AM

alancostello wrote: »

EI have access to massive amounts of data through IAG, launching this route they know nearly exactly what the load factors will be. Kavanagh has said that every route launched since the takeover has been profitable from day one, and this is why.

100% agree, that’s my point, if they have launched SEA over DFW/IAH then it is based on data, not a hunch.

Tenger · 18-11-2017 02:18AM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

100% agree, that’s my point, if they have launched SEA over DFW/IAH then it is based on data, not a hunch.

My thoughts too. Perhaps a deal was reached with the Seattle based tech sector which provides block booked seats? DUB-SFO had such a deal in place when it restarted back in 2014.

kona · 18-11-2017 02:19AM

Whats the story with vegas? I dont believe that aer lingus couldnt make a killing on this route...

JCX BXC · 18-11-2017 04:27AM

kona wrote: »

Whats the story with vegas? I dont believe that aer lingus couldnt make a killing on this route...

It's not happening :https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aer-lingus-stays-pokerfaced-as-it-shelves-plan-for-direct-dublinlas-vegas-route-36175238.html

What's with the obsession with Vegas by many people?

joey12 · 18-11-2017 09:24AM

Great news for all the Irish working at Boeing. A welcome route for us all.

Van.Bosch · 18-11-2017 10:42AM

JCX BXC wrote: »

It's not happening :https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aer-lingus-stays-pokerfaced-as-it-shelves-plan-for-direct-dublinlas-vegas-route-36175238.html

What's with the obsession with Vegas by many people?

I think Irish people go to Vegas so they see it as a route that’d work but if EI floated it, I’d say there is a chance it could feature to counter seasonality on other routes down the line, maybe in a few years but I’m sure they have 5/6 routes they would use an A330 on before it.

JCX BXC · 18-11-2017 11:54AM

Article on Aer Lingus expansion: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-eyes-2m-more-transatlantic-passengers-by-2020-1.3296052?mode=amp

What I find particularly interesting in that article is the following "Mr Kavanagh indicated that the airline may also increase the number of flights on transatlantic services from Shannon Airport, from where it serves Boston and New York."

Believable or word play?

18-11-2017 12:48PM

Any increase out of Shannon would have to be supported by people actually using the services. We’ve seen over the last 12 months a gradual scaling back of transatlantic services by all airlines after Norwegians entry. I personally can’t see any realistic increase from Shannon for this reason and this is likely just a sop to shut the locals up for a while.

18-11-2017 12:51PM

Oh and note he also said “a minimum of 24 TA aircraft in 2022”.

JCX BXC · 18-11-2017 12:52PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Any increase out of Shannon would have to be supported by people actually using the services. We’ve seen over the last 12 months a gradual scaling back of transatlantic services by all airlines after Norwegians entry. I personally can’t see any realistic increase from Shannon for this reason and this is likely just a sop to shut the locals up for a while.

American airlines have increased capacity, is this scaling back? Aer Lingus have also not changed capacity whatsoever.

joeysoap · 18-11-2017 12:54PM

JCX BXC wrote: »

What's with the obsession with Vegas by many people?

Hangovers?

JCX BXC · 18-11-2017 12:55PM

moloner4 wrote: »

United going seasonal EWR-SNN and dropping ORD-SNN I think was the airline dropping capacity?

And Delta cutting the route from a 767 to a 757, however that's only 2 of 5 airlines.

kona · 18-11-2017 01:22PM

JCX BXC wrote: »

It's not happening :https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aer-lingus-stays-pokerfaced-as-it-shelves-plan-for-direct-dublinlas-vegas-route-36175238.html

What's with the obsession with Vegas by many people?

Ever been to vegas? :pac:

Its abit of a pain to get to, id have thought it would be popular due do the amount of stuff that goes on there even besides gambling.

Reading that article the seem to be concerned about traffic coming from vegas to europe .

18-11-2017 01:43PM

JCX BXC wrote: »

And Delta cutting the route from a 767 to a 757, however that's only 2 of 5 airlines.

Apologies sorry two cuts I thought there was more and only one airline operating through the winter to New York State. Stretching my point Aer Lingus have gradually cut from a 330 to a 767 to a 757 over the last few years as well.

marno21 · 18-11-2017 01:45PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Apologies sorry two cuts I thought there was more and only one airline operating through the winter to New York State. Stretching my point Aer Lingus have gradually cut from a 330 to a 767 to a 757 over the last few years as well.

330 was overkill for Shannon especially off peak. Year round 752 makes sense.

JCX BXC · 18-11-2017 01:56PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Apologies sorry two cuts I thought there was more and only one airline operating through the winter to New York State. Stretching my point Aer Lingus have gradually cut from a 330 to a 767 to a 757 over the last few years as well.

Kind of, I'd agree with Marno an A330 was overkill during winter for a market like Shannon.

For BOS it was more an A330-757-767-757 scenario. JFK was simply A330-757. However, 1 based A330 became 2 based 757's and BOS became year round, so it was Infact an increase in service.

In regards to the 767, it was a strange one. It was shunned by passengers who complained about poor service onboard. Hired in for 12 weeks during the summer for BOS for 2 years, yet this year when it was just a 757, numbers only fell marginally and the LF increased quite a bit.

Being honest I don't really see EI expanding in Shannon, but found those comments interesting, especially as there's been no attention around possible routes to Shannon. In an ideal world I'd like to see EI take up the Chicago route cut by contracting airline United. Hopes aren't high though.

18-11-2017 02:02PM

If they put in a 320NEO, but a 321NEO is too much, I could see them doing double daily easily. Having one a day or X amount per week can be self defeating if timings or days don’t suit but putting on a lower capacity aircraft and increasing frequency can drive the market to your door.

I’d also watch Norwegian and see if they increase, their lower basic fare should be able to develop a market much like WOWs does. Whether people like it or not the paying extra for bags etc is working for WOW so should work for NAI.

I wish the DAA would try and find an extra 1000-2000ft of tarmac for Cork because I think that would create an increase in services.

kevinandrew · 18-11-2017 02:20PM

Aer Lingus have bigger fish to fry than Las Vegas, they’re focused on routes that can work year round and deliver a desired yield. Las Vegas would be a seasonal, low yielding route with limited connecting potential. It’s not impossible but I do think there are a number of cities ahead of it on the list.

As for Shannon expansion, it’ll be limited. You always get someone asking, “what about Shannon” and the CEO responds with the usual, “it may happen” which says it all really. A few peak summer frequency increases, maybe even an additional route at a push but little else.

HTCOne · 18-11-2017 03:23PM

Before AC showed up on SNN-YYZ, I’d have thought a NEO split between ORD and YYZ summer seasonal 3/4 times weekly may have worked.

However the same old question needs to be asked, what route out of Shannon would be more profitable than any extra route or frequency out of Dublin? Probably none

marno21 · 18-11-2017 04:07PM

HTCOne wrote: »

Before AC showed up on SNN-YYZ, I’d have thought a NEO split between ORD and YYZ summer seasonal 3/4 times weekly may have worked.

However the same old question needs to be asked, what route out of Shannon would be more profitable than any extra route or frequency out of Dublin? Probably none

As long as people are happy to hop on the Dublin Coach and head to Dublin Airport Shannon will struggle.

The fact that Shannon and Cork are so poorly linked is another major obstacle

JCX BXC · 18-11-2017 04:17PM

HTCOne wrote: »

However the same old question needs to be asked, what route out of Shannon would be more profitable than any extra route or frequency out of Dublin? Probably none

I'd agree, however another consideration is restrictions in Dublin, if you can't fly at a time when people want to fly, would a poor timing on an extra frequency/new route from Dublin operate better than a prime time from Shannon? The answer is still probably yes, but it may start to cut it closer.

highlydebased · 18-11-2017 04:40PM

kevinandrew wrote:

As for Shannon expansion, itâ€™ll be limited. You always get someone asking, â€œwhat about Shannonâ€ and the CEO responds with the usual, â€œit may happenâ€ which says it all really. A few peak summer frequency increases, maybe even an additional route at a push but little else.

I wonder would SNN JFK all winter without break be what we see given United has bowed out for the winter?

Jack1985 · 19-11-2017 07:40PM

Not sure if it's been noted yet, but 5x 757 are required for the Summer schedule. According to the latest update on M-W-F-S, 3x 757 are required ex DUB with 2x required for SNN-BOS/JFK on the same days. The 3 out of DUB are required for Hartford, Philadelphia and Washington.

The previously planned increase to IAD has been caned with the 757 maintaining daily operation for Summer 18. Interesting times ahead, of course it could still be 4 with Omni making a reappearance ex-SNN however this seems unlikely with the hassle it caused for EI.

With the previous announcement to SEA, looks like an extra 330 and 757 for S18.

IE 222 · 19-11-2017 08:59PM

I noticed Toronto was scheduled (on booking section) for a B757 on Tuesday & Thursday's as well during summer

Also Orlando's times have been changed to match Miami. Will Miami change to A333 next summer.

Jamie2k9 · 19-11-2017 09:19PM

Jack1985 wrote: »

Not sure if it's been noted yet, but 5x 757 are required for the Summer schedule. According to the latest update on M-W-F-S, 3x 757 are required ex DUB with 2x required for SNN-BOS/JFK on the same days. The 3 out of DUB are required for Hartford, Philadelphia and Washington.

The previously planned increase to IAD has been caned with the 757 maintaining daily operation for Summer 18. Interesting times ahead, of course it could still be 4 with Omni making a reappearance ex-SNN however this seems unlikely with the hassle it caused for EI.

With the previous announcement to SEA, looks like an extra 330 and 757 for S18.

IAD will be moved to A330. PHL may also get an extra 3 weekly and bring it to daily as well.

A330
2 JFK
2 BOS
2 ORD
1 SFO
1 LAX
1 YYZ
1 EWR
1 MCO/MIA
1 IAD
1 SEA + Spare

B752
1 BDY
1 PHL
1 JFK
1 BOS

IAD or PHL will switch to A330, only 1 more A330 joining.

IrishYamm · 19-11-2017 09:54PM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

IAD will be moved to A330. PHL may also get an extra 3 weekly and bring it to daily as well.

A330
2 JFK
2 BOS
2 ORD
1 SFO
1 LAX
1 YYZ
1 EWR
1 MCO/MIA
1 IAD
1 SEA + Spare

B752
1 BDY
1 PHL
1 JFK
1 BOS

IAD or PHL will switch to A330, only 1 more A330 joining.

I thought different:

JFK (two 330)
ORD (two 330)
BOS (two 330)
MIA/MCO (one 330)
EWR (one 330)
SFO (one 330)
LAX (one 330)
YYZ (one 330)
IAD (one 330 4days week/ 757 3days week)
BDL (one 757)
PHL (757 4d week)
SEA (extra 330)

The 757 split between PHL and IAD

Iad had been announced to get extra capacity by upgradining 4 weekly next year by Aer Lingus I think

Jamie2k9 · 19-11-2017 10:15PM

IrishYamm wrote: »

I thought different:

JFK (two 330)
ORD (two 330)
BOS (two 330)
MIA/MCO (one 330)
EWR (one 330)
SFO (one 330)
LAX (one 330)
YYZ (one 330)
IAD (one 330 4days week/ 757 3days week)
BDL (one 757)
PHL (757 4d week)
SEA (extra 330)

The 757 split between PHL and IAD

Iad had been announced to get extra capacity by upgradining 4 weekly next year by Aer Lingus I think

With the extra A330 there will likely be 3 additional flying slots to be allocated on a Tue, Thur, Sat which will mean IAD will likely get it and the B752 will go to PHL. That is assuming they don't plan to increase the free slots above the current 3, hard to see them allow 6 free so suspect IAD/PHL will have changes.

Tenger · 19-11-2017 10:25PM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

With the extra A330 there will likely be 3 additional flying slots to be allocated on a Tue, Thur, Sat which will mean IAD will likely get it and the B752 will go to PHL.........

I thought that was the plan? Looked that way after the PHL announcement.
Maybe it’s still being sorted after the SEA announcement?

I must say it’s so nice of FR to have a single aircraft type, makes network changes and expansions so much easier to discuss here!!!

Jack1985 · 19-11-2017 11:01PM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

IAD will be moved to A330..

This plan has been canned. This is now known internally. It will remain 1x daily on the 757 operation.

It is yet to be confirmed whether another 757 will be sourced, or if there will be a hire-in similar to 2015/2016.

Aer Lingus Fleet/Routes Discussion

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