November 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

wot's all this?

MTC _________ 7.2 ___ 16.7 ___ -3.9 ___ 100 ___ 080 ___ 2.3 Ballyhaise

By my later not so rough count, five "new" forecasters, one reply not a forecast, so 22 forecasts to this point meaning 17/20 of the regulars have posted. Hurry scurry you others (noting that 0300h is 03z now). Of the "new" I have included three who have posted once or twice in the past, welcome one and all.

November 2017 forecasts

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max, loc'n



Pauldry____________8.2 _ 17.3 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 111 ___ 3.8 _ Knock
Kindred Spirit ______ 8.1 _ 16.8 _ -3.0 _ 091 _ 102 ___ 6.0 _ Markree.
Elmer Blooker ______7.8 _ 16.8 _ -3.8 _ 080 _ 090 ___ 1.8 _ Knock.
mickger844posts ___ 7.8 _ 15.9 _ -2.8 _ 090 _ 101 ___ 5.2 _ Mullingar
DOCARCH _________7.6 _ 16.8 _ -4.1 _ 112 _ 090 ___ 3.2 _ Ballyhaise.
Tae laidir __________7.6 _ 15.9 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 106 ___ 2.9 _ Casement
Lumi _____________ 7.6 _ 14.8 _ -3.7 _ 100 _ 095 ___ 5.5 _ Casement
john mac __________7.5 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 4.5 _ Mullingar
Rikand ____________7.5 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 3.5 _ Mt. Dillon
waterways _________7.5 _ 16.0 _ -5.0 _ 103 _ 107 ___ 1.5 _ Claremorris
Sunflower3 ________ 7.4 _ 16.8 _ -4.1 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 4.5 _ Mt. Dillon
Rameire ___ (-2) ___ 7.4 _ 16.0 _ -3.0 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 3.8 _ Mullingar
sryanbruen ________ 7.4 _ 15.9 _ -2.1 _ 110 _ 118 ___ 3.6 _ Markree



200motels_________ 7.3 _ 16.7 _ -2.8 _ 094 _ 116 ___ 3.2 _ Mullingar
Bsal ______________7.3 _ 15.7 _ -3.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 4.0 _ Mullingar

NormaL___________ 7.2 _ 17.0 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 2.5 _ Knock (3), see**

M.T. Cranium ______ 7.2 _ 16.7 _ -3.9 _ 100 _ 080 ___ 2.3 _ Ballyhaise
sdanseo __________ 7.1 _ 17.5 _ -3.4 _ 096 _ 105 ___ 3.2 _ Oak Park
dasa29 ___________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 5.0 _ Mullingar
Tazio _____________7.0 _ 17.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 4.0 _ Cork Airport
WesternStorm _____ 6.9 _ 17.0 _ -3.1 _ 092 _ 102 ___ 3.4 _ Knock
Dacogawa __ (-3) __ 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 091 _ 127 ___ 3.9 _ Knock
Rougies ___________6.9 _ 16.3 _ -3.2 _ 089 _ 110 ___ 4.5 _ Mt. Dillon
Mr Skinner_________6.6 _ 15.9 _ -3.9 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 3.2 _ Markree
Jpmarn ___________ 6.5 _ 14.5 _ -5.2 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 2.0 _ Knock
Joe Public _________ 6.2 _ 16.1 _ -4.9 _ 082 _ 109 ___ 2.1 _ Ballyhaise
__________________________________________________


@ For Con Sensus, highest score of any of these outcomes will apply:
... Mullingar (chosen by 6) will score 3 if coldest, 2 if second coldest, 1 if third coldest max.
... Knock (chosen by 5) will score 2 if coldest, 1 if second coldest.
... Ballyhaise, Markree or Mt. Dillon (chosen by 3 each) will score 1 if coldest.

... other choices that cannot score for Con Sensus include Casement (2) and Oak Park, Cork and Claremorris (1).

If three places not chosen by any forecasters score 1-2-3 in the low max then all entrants will receive one point.

** For NormaL, Ballyhaise, Markree or Mountdillon would score 2 and any of Claremorris, Mullingar, Gurteen, Athenry, Casement would score 1, while any other location scores zero.

Con Sensus is based on the median of 25 forecasts and is therefore the 13th ranked value.

Due to my recent road trip, I had no opportunity to update the monthly data after first week so we'll do things backwards this month and start with the first nine days then update each week after that.

IMT after nine days was 8.1 C, slightly above normal for the period.

PRC after nine days was 62% of normal.

SUN after nine days was 130% of normal.

MAX as noted earlier 16.6, MIN --2.5 at Mullingar 8th.

Low max of 7.7 was noted (Knock) but that might not be the lowest, at any rate eventual low max probably a few degrees colder than anything seen so far.