November 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

I missed another update ... and there's some missing data ... so here's an approximation anyway.

IMT is around 7.0 C

PRC is likely about 75% of normal

SUN has probably settled back down closer to normal.

I think this month we may just have to wait for the Monthly Summary because I am going to have my hands full completing our moving challenges by the 30th.

Tae laidir

Yesterday's Low Max 12.1 Knock Airport :eek:

M.T. Cranium

Some work for the bonus question spotters is just around the corner.

There has been an ongoing issue of missing data at Oak Park, but if I estimate their mean from nearby stations, the IMT has risen above 8 C and may be as high as 8.4 after today. This will certainly be a high water mark for it looking at the forecasts. If the next eight days average 4.0 then the outcome would be 7.0 C.

The PRC including today's downpours appears to be close to a normal amount for this portion of November, so it would take an ongoing normal amount to see the month ending at 100% -- it looks a bit drier than that in the forecasts.

I am just going to wait and see on SUN but I don't think it's a long way from 100% now either.

Jpmarn

Low max yesterday was 5.8c at Ballyhaise Cavan. I hope it will be beaten today and hopefully below 4c.

rameire

Low max temps for today.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/934133780331270145

Jpmarn

Low temperature in Moorepark Co. Cork -3.5c

Tae laidir

Low max yesterday Knock Airport 3.7

M.T. Cranium

Assuming Oak Park is close to 8.1 (JC is 8.4) then IMT was 7.6 after 24 days and is likely falling at about 0.2 per day. This will decrease to 0.1 as we get closer to end of month. One-fifth of error in Oak Park equals error in IMT. Most likely finishing range of IMT is 6.6 to 6.9.

PRC appears to be very close to normal as about 80% of month-end normal has fallen in the 24 days (assuming 70% for Oak Park). This is liikely to finish closer to 90%.

SUN has probably been picking up a little in this colder spell since November averages are lower than 2 hours a day.

Note for future reference: there will be a badly timed interval (30 Nov to 4 Dec) when I am unlikely to be on the net for more than a few minutes at a time (moving) but then the Monthly Summary won't show up until the 4th anyway. I may post a speculative provisional scoring table around 29th. The December thread will open up in a day or two.

Joe Public

Tae laidir wrote: »

Low max yesterday Knock Airport 3.7

Might be Knock Knock tomorrow

Tae laidir

Casement came close to new Low Max at 4.0

pauldry

Tae laidir wrote: »

Casement came close to new Low Max at 4.0

Dont knock Knock

M.T. Cranium

So I have moved and settled in, internet to be hooked up some time Monday ... at lunch in pub with wifi now ... so limited time, here's what I found out so far ...

IMT will be 6.7 for any Oak Park 6.1 to 6.5 (they are not yet updated in monthly weather).

PRC will be 90% if Claremorris and Oak Park average 90, the other 9/11 are near 90. MS should have the answer.

SUN probably recovered to at least 100% with the cold dry spell, may come in a bit above that.

I have not tracked low max or MIN since 27th but nobody posted which suggests to me that the previous values held up?

Hoping to get full access tomorrow evening or overnight your time, scoring should be up on Tuesday.

my move would be something like North Dublin to any small village in Donegal, should be spending even more time on the net ... wait until I can post the view from my new office window (home office again) ... it is rugged mountain scenery.

M.T. Cranium

All hooked up to home internet (yay) and ready to rumble ...

It is unusual, but even the MS has Oak Park n/a for Nov temp and Oak Park, Claremorris n/a for Nov precip.

Will go ahead and score on these values, with promise to adjust at any time the missing data are confirmed. The tentative values used at present are:

IMT 6.7 (assumes Oak Park 6.1 to 6.5, normal is 7.2, anomaly at nearby JC is -0.6 with Casement -1.0). If wrong IMT is probably 6.8 (OP 6.6 to 7.0).

PRC 96% (the average of nine available locations is 95.7% and I estimate Claremorris near 105%, Oak Park near 87% so this maintains the same average). The total was 861/900 ... when or if Claremorris plus Oak Park available, any total between 190 and 200 will maintain 96%, each segment of 11 different will change the average by 1 in the relevant direction (e.g. 204 will give 97%, 215 would give 98%).

SUN 100% (Belmullet and Valentia were a little below their averages and the rest were a little above, the average was within margin of error for 100% (98 to 102).

MAX 16.6

MIN --3.5

Low max 3.7 Knock

M.T. Cranium

Here are the almost final scores, they are subject to change only if Oak Park reports a final mean temp and precip, and Claremorris a final precip value, that in either case change my estimated values (see previous post).

These are some of the higher scores ever seen for a month (overall) and so not surprisingly Con Sensus has managed a total of 91. Congrats to Western Storm, leading the month with 89 on his or her first try. Rougies (also first entry, 83) and Danseo (a few entries this year, 81 this month) also beat all the "regulars" with Dacogawa leading the way at 80 (from 83, late penalty). There was a large contingent in the high 70s as well.


(near) Final scoring for November 2017

see previous post for uncertain values that may require slight changes later

FORECASTER ______IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus _____ TOTAL

Con Sensus ________18 _ 19 _ 20 _ 14 _ 10 ___ 7 + 2 + 1 ___ 91

WesternStorm ______23 _ 16 _ 16 _ 14 _ 10 ___ 6 + 3 + 1____ 89

Rougies ___________23 _ 17 _ 17 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 4 + 1 _______ 83

sdanseo ___________21 _ 11 _ 19 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 5 + 1 _______ 81

Dacogawa __ (-3) ___23 _ 17 _ 13 _ 13 _ 05 ___ 7 + 3+2 _83-3=80
200motels_________ 19 _ 19 _ 13 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 5 + 2 _______ 79
M.T. Cranium ______ 20 _ 19 _ 16 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 3 + 1 _______ 79
Rameire ___ (-2) ___ 18 _ 14 _ 15 _ 15 _ 08 ___ 7 + 2+1_80-2=78
john mac __________17 _ 16 _ 20 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 4 + 2 _______ 78
Mr Skinner_________ 24 _ 13 _ 16 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 5 + 1 _______ 77
Sunflower3 ________ 18 _ 18 _ 14 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 4 + 1 _______ 76
Bsal ______________19 _ 11 _ 15 _ 15 _ 08 ___ 6 + 2 _______ 76

NormaL___________ 20 _ 16 _ 10 _ 14 _ 10 ___ 3 + 3 _______ 76

Rikand ___________ 17 _ 16 _ 15 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 7 + 1 _______ 75
DOCARCH _________16 _ 18 _ 14 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 5 + 1 _______ 72
Elmer Blooker ______14 _ 18 _ 17 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 2 + 3 _______ 72
Pauldry___________ 10 _ 13 _ 15 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 7 + 3 + 2 ____71
Tae laidir _________ 16 _ 13 _ 20 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 4 + 1 _______ 71
dasa29 ___________22 _ 16 _ 05 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 3 + 2 _______ 70
Tazio ____________ 22 _ 16 _ 05 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 6 + 1 _______ 70
Kindred Spirit ______11 _ 18 _ 15 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 1 + 1 _______ 69
mickger844posts ___ 14 _ 13 _ 13 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 2 + 2 _______ 67
Joe Public _________20 _ 15 _ 06 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 2 + 1 _______ 62
Lumi _____________16 _ 02 _ 18 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 1 + 1 _______ 61
sryanbruen ________18 _ 13 _ 06 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 7 + 1 _______ 61
waterways ________ 17 _ 14 _ 05 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 1 + 1 _______ 60
Jpmarn ___________23 _ 00 _ 03 _ 06 _ 05 ___ 2 + 3 _______ 42

__________________________________________________

Note: For location, I gave 3 for Knock, 2 for either Casement or Mullingar, and 1 for all other guesses because the actual values are not very far apart for any of them. Super-bonus (1 or 2) points were available, and collected.

Annual update to follow ... and the final report on Four Seasons contest with autumn and four seasons total points.

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actual forecasts Nov 2017

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FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max, loc'n



Pauldry____________8.2 _ 17.3 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 111 ___ 3.8 _ Knock
Kindred Spirit ______ 8.1 _ 16.8 _ -3.0 _ 091 _ 102 ___ 6.0 _ Markree.
Elmer Blooker ______7.8 _ 16.8 _ -3.8 _ 080 _ 090 ___ 1.8 _ Knock.
mickger844posts ___ 7.8 _ 15.9 _ -2.8 _ 090 _ 101 ___ 5.2 _ Mullingar
DOCARCH _________7.6 _ 16.8 _ -4.1 _ 112 _ 090 ___ 3.2 _ Ballyhaise.
Tae laidir __________7.6 _ 15.9 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 106 ___ 2.9 _ Casement
Lumi _____________ 7.6 _ 14.8 _ -3.7 _ 100 _ 095 ___ 5.5 _ Casement
john mac __________7.5 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 4.5 _ Mullingar
Rikand ____________7.5 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 3.5 _ Mt. Dillon
waterways _________7.5 _ 16.0 _ -5.0 _ 103 _ 107 ___ 1.5 _ Claremorris
Sunflower3 ________ 7.4 _ 16.8 _ -4.1 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 4.5 _ Mt. Dillon
Rameire ___ (-2) ___ 7.4 _ 16.0 _ -3.0 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 3.8 _ Mullingar
sryanbruen ________ 7.4 _ 15.9 _ -2.1 _ 110 _ 118 ___ 3.6 _ Markree



200motels_________ 7.3 _ 16.7 _ -2.8 _ 094 _ 116 ___ 3.2 _ Mullingar
Bsal ______________7.3 _ 15.7 _ -3.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 4.0 _ Mullingar

NormaL___________ 7.2 _ 17.0 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 2.5 _ Knock (3), see**

M.T. Cranium ______ 7.2 _ 16.7 _ -3.9 _ 100 _ 080 ___ 2.3 _ Ballyhaise
sdanseo __________ 7.1 _ 17.5 _ -3.4 _ 096 _ 105 ___ 3.2 _ Oak Park
dasa29 ___________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 5.0 _ Mullingar
Tazio _____________7.0 _ 17.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 4.0 _ Cork Airport
WesternStorm _____ 6.9 _ 17.0 _ -3.1 _ 092 _ 102 ___ 3.4 _ Knock
Dacogawa __ (-3) __ 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 091 _ 127 ___ 3.9 _ Knock
Rougies ___________6.9 _ 16.3 _ -3.2 _ 089 _ 110 ___ 4.5 _ Mt. Dillon
Mr Skinner_________6.6 _ 15.9 _ -3.9 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 3.2 _ Markree
Jpmarn ___________ 6.5 _ 14.5 _ -5.2 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 2.0 _ Knock
Joe Public _________ 6.2 _ 16.1 _ -4.9 _ 082 _ 109 ___ 2.1 _ Ballyhaise
__________________________________________________


@ For Con Sensus, highest score of any of these outcomes will apply:
... Mullingar (chosen by 6) will score 3 if coldest, 2 if second coldest, 1 if third coldest max.
... Knock (chosen by 5) will score 2 if coldest, 1 if second coldest.
... Ballyhaise, Markree or Mt. Dillon (chosen by 3 each) will score 1 if coldest.

... other choices that cannot score for Con Sensus include Casement (2) and Oak Park, Cork and Claremorris (1).

If three places not chosen by any forecasters score 1-2-3 in the low max then all entrants will receive one point.

** For NormaL, Ballyhaise, Markree or Mountdillon would score 2 and any of Claremorris, Mullingar, Gurteen, Athenry, Casement would score 1, while any other location scores zero.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update for Jan to Nov 2017

rank_best 9_FORECASTER __ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG_SEP_OCT_NOV __ TOTAL

01 _ 635 __ Con Sensus ____ 59 _ 66 _ 74 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 61 _ 71 _ 69 _ 68 _ 91 ___ 755 ( 1)


01 _ 629 __ mickger844posts_74 _ 54 _ 73 _ 63 _ 55 _ 65 _ 70 _ 72 _ 65 _ 80 _ 67 ___ 738 ( 1)
02 _ 622 __ MrSkinner ______50 _ 66 _ 41 _ 66 _ 72 _ 58 _ 70 _ 69 _ 67 _ 77 _ 77 ___ 713 ( 3)
02 _ 621 __ pauldry ________74 _ 66 _ 62 _ 56 _ 60 _ 64 _ 72 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 71 ___ 737 ( 2)
t04_ 611 __ DOCARCH ______47 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 60 _ 68 _ 77 _ 68 _ 48 _ 54 _ 72 ___ 706 ( 4)
t04_ 611 __ Dacogawa _____ 46 _ 62 _ --- _ 51 _ 79 _ 71 _ 90 _ 57 _ 63 _ 58 _ 80 ___ 657 ( 9)
06 _ 605 __ Bsal __________ 49 _ 58 _ 60 _ 58 _ 67 _ 69 _ 78 _ 81 _ 55 _ 58 _ 76 ___ 709 (t5)
07 _ 603 __ Tae laidir ______ 68 _ 57 _ 56 _ 76 _ 71 _ 68 _ 50 _ 64 _ 72 _ 45 _ 71 ___ 698 ( 7)
09 _ 601 __ Rameire _______ 57 _ 56 _ 52 _ 66 _ 65 _ 70 _ 60 _ 75 _ 57 _ 73 _ 78 ___ 709 (t5)
t09_ 593 __ Lumi __________57 _ 72 _ 72 _ --- _ 70 _ 72 _ --- _ 80 _ 40 _ 69 _ 61 ___ 593 (19)
t09_ 593 __ John mac ______ 58 _ 59 _ 76 _ 62 _ 64 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 47 _ 78 ___ 695 ( 8)

11 _ 586 __ 200motels _____ 64 _ 51 _ 69 _ 52 _ 35 _ 65 _ 69 _ 68 _ 34 _ 69 _ 79 ___ 655 (11)

13 _ 571 __ NormaL _______ 43 _ 68 _ 61 _ 63 _ 61 _ 41 _ 66 _ 66 _ 51 _ 59 _ 76 ___ 655 (t11)

t12_ 568 __ sryanbruen _____43 _ 76 _ 62 _ 60 _ 39 _ 70 _ 44 _ 69 _ 58 _ 68 _ 61 ___ 650 (t13)
t12_ 568 __ sunflower3 _____ 46 _ 48 _ 62 _ 56 _ 54 _ 67 _ 42 _ 78 _ 61 _ 66 _ 76 ___ 656 (10)
14 _ 562 __ Kindred Spirit ___54 _ 78 _ 55 _ 56 _ 49 _ 64 _ 60 _ 75 _ 51 _ 39 _ 69 ___ 650 (t13)
15 _ 561 __ Rikand ________ 54 _ 63 _ 66 _ 54 _ 75 _ 64 _ 46 _ 40 _ 56 _ 54 _ 75 ___ 647 (15)
t16_ 559 __ Dasa29 ________55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 69 _ 45 _ 59 _ 52 _ 56 _ 80 _ 59 _ 70 ___ 653 (12)
t16_559 __ M.T. Cranium ___ 53 _ 46 _ 75 _ 56 _ 44 _ 58 _ 77 _ 47 _ 32 _ 68 _ 79 ___ 635 (16)
18 _ 553 __ waterways _____ 49 _ 58 _ 67 _ 12 _ 67 _ 54 _ 68 _ 59 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 ___ 614 (17)
19 _523 __ Jpmarn ________70 _ 70 _ 22 _ 55 _ 56 _ 43 _ 51 _ 61 _ 55 _ 62 _ 42 ___ 587 (20)
20 _ 522 __ Joe Public ______36 _ 57 _ 54 _ 46 _ 87 _ 56 _ 45 _ 68 _ 47 _ 44 _ 62 ___ 602 (18)

19 _ 542 _(best of occasionals)--- _ 60 _ 63 _ 68 _ 39 _ 56 _ 74 _ --- _ 47 _ 46 _ 89 ___ 542 (21)

xxx sdanseo _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 56 _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 81 ___ 245
xxx JCX BXC _____________ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 170
xxx Elmer Blooker _________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 46 _ 72 ___ 118
xxx Tazio ________________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 _ --- _ 70 ___ 117
xxx waterjohn ____________--- _ --- _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 101
xxx Western Storm ________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 89 ____89
xxx Rougies _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 83 ____83
xxx Gonzo _______________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 74 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ____74


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Very close at the top now with Con Sensus moving back into first thanks to our cumulative good work in November. In the actual contest, mickger844posts holds on to a slim lead with MrSkinner and Pauldry almost tied a few points behind.

A reminder about ranks -- Con Sensus and NormaL obtain ranks as if they were in the contest, but those ranks do not displace anyone and in this month's edition, NormaL is tied for 11th in all months with 200motels but their score remains untied (with other actual contest entrants). (both have 655 points)

The ranks are ordered by best 9 of 11, and the total score ranks are therefore somewhat random in order although the only real outliers are those who missed either one or two months. If Dacogawa had scored 60 to 70 points in March which he did not enter, he would rank 3rd in all eleven months' points. If Lumi had scored a total of 120 in April and July, she would have ranked 3rd in that category.

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Autumn Sep-Oct-Nov four seasons scoring

FORECASTER ___ TOTAL ____ Points


Con Sensus _____ 228 ______ 10


MrSkinner ______ 221 ______ 10

mickger844posts _ 212 _______ 7

dasa29 _________ 209 _______ 6

Rameire ________ 208 _______ 5

sunflower3 ______ 205 _______ 4

dacogawa _______201 _______ 3

pauldry ________ 200 _______ 2

John mac _______190 _______ 1

Bsal ___________ 189 _______ 1

Tae Laidir _______188 _______ 1

sryanbruen ______187 _______ 0


NormaL ________ 186 _______ 0


Rikand _________ 185 _______ 0

200motels ______ 182 _______ 0

waterways ______ 180 _______ 0

M.T. Cranium ____ 179 _______ 0

DOCARCH _______174 _______ 0

Lumi ___________ 170 _______ 0

Kindred spirit ____ 159 _______ 0

JPmarn _________ 159 _______ 0

Joe Public _______ 153 _______ 0

Four seasons overall 2016-17 results to be announced in the next post.

M.T. Cranium

Four Sesaons contest 2016-17 (winter 2016-17) and spring, summer, autumn 2017

Points attained in each season with totals for the contest "year" ...


FORECASTER _____ Winter ____ Spring ____ Summer ___ Autumn ____ TOTAL (rank)

Con Sensus ________ 3 ________ 10 ________ 1 ________10_________ 24
(1)

Tae laidir __________ 7 ________ 10 ________ 0 ________ 1 _________ 18 (t1)
Pauldry ___________10 _________ 1 ________ 5 ________ 2 _________ 18 (t1)

MrSkinner __________5 _________ 1 ________ 1 _______ 10 _________ 17 ( 3)
Mickger844posts ____ 1 _________ 4 ________ 4 ________ 7 _________ 16 ( 4)
DOCARCH __________2 _________ 6 ________ 6 ________ 0 _________ 14 ( 5)
Bsal ______________ 0 _________ 2 _______ 10 ________ 1 _________ 13 ( 6)
Dacogawa __________0 _________ 0 ________ 7 ________ 3 _________ 10 ( 7)
Rameire ___________ 0 _________ 1 ________ 3 ________ 5 __________ 9 ( 8)
John mac __________ 0 _________ 7 ________ 0 ________ 1 __________ 8 (t9)
sunflower3 _________ 3 _________ 0 ________ 1 ________ 4 __________ 8 (t9)
Rikand ____________ 1 _________ 5 ________ 0 ________ 0 __________ 6 (t11)
Jpmarn ____________6 _________ 0 ________ 0 ________ 0 __________ 6 (t11)
Dasa29 ____________0 _________ 0 ________ 0 ________ 6 __________ 6 (t11)
Lumi ______________5 _________ 0 ________ 0 ________ 0 __________ 5 (14)

NormaL ___________ 3 _________ 2 ________ 0 ________ 0 __________ 5 (t14)


Joe Public __________ 0 _________ 3 ________ 0 ________ 0 __________ 3 (t15)
200motels __________1 _________ 0 ________ 2 ________ 0 __________ 3 (t15)
Kindred Spirit _______ 1 _________ 0 ________ 1 ________ 0 __________ 2 (17)
M.T. Cranium _______ 0 _________ 0 ________ 0 ________ 0 __________ 0
sryanbruen _________ 0 _________ 0 ________ 0 ________ 0 __________ 0
waterways __________0 _________ 0 ________ 0 ________ 0 __________ 0
________________________________________________________________


Tae laidir and Pauldry tie for the contest win, each had one top score in a season so there's no real way to settle the tie. MrSkinner made a dash for the top by winning autumn and would have been in a tie with these winners had they not scored a few points in autumn themselves.

Con Sensus moved ahead of the field with a solid performance in autumn as well.

M.T. Cranium

The missing monthly data for Oak Park (temp, precip) and Claremorris have not yet been updated. I have had time now to look at their data available in "daily data" and made these findings:

Oak Park was missing for temps on 11th to 13th and for precip on 13th only. Otherwise they had a total of 47.8 mm and a mean of 6.5 for the days available. Taking an average of Gurteen and Johnstown Castle for the missing days (6.2), the final values would be 6.5 and 50.0 mm which is 58% of normal. Based on that IMT value which I cannot see moving up to 6.6 as the averages for nearby stations were similar on all three missing days, our contest IMT seems to be okay. More about the precip value after looking at Claremorris, but 58 is certain between 57 and 60 based on the small amount of missing data and the small spread of values on that one missing day around the south and east in general (0-3 mm values).

For Claremorris, 110.0 mm fell on all days except the missing 28th which appears to have had amounts of 2 to 5 mm in Connacht generally, so taking 115 mm as the actual total, it would be 94 per cent of their normal value.

That combined with Oak Park (58) gives 76 per cent which is a bit lower than I had estimated. The PRC value is therefore dropped from 96 to 93 per cent.

Following players will carry one extra point for precip into the final calculations ...
Pauldry, mickger844posts, Rikand, Elmer Blooker, sunflower3, kindred spirit, 200motels, Tazio, western storm, Rougies, Joe Public, JPMarn, dacogawa and Con Sensus.

The rest of us will have one point removed.

Since I may forget this at end of the year in holiday festive mode, here's the revised annual scoring table. I won't bother to revise the monthly table, looks like most of the higher scores are boosted by 1 and the lower scores fall by 1 with a few exceptions.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update (revised slightly) for Jan to Nov 2017

rank_best 9_FORECASTER __ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG_SEP_OCT_NOV __ TOTAL

01 _ 636 __ Con Sensus ____ 59 _ 66 _ 74 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 61 _ 71 _ 69 _ 68 _ 92 ___ 756 ( 1)


01 _ 630 __ mickger844posts_74 _ 54 _ 73 _ 63 _ 55 _ 65 _ 70 _ 72 _ 65 _ 80 _ 68 ___ 739 ( 1)
02 _ 622 __ pauldry ________74 _ 66 _ 62 _ 56 _ 60 _ 64 _ 72 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 72 ___ 738 ( 2)
03 _ 621 __ MrSkinner ______50 _ 66 _ 41 _ 66 _ 72 _ 58 _ 70 _ 69 _ 67 _ 77 _ 76 ___ 712 ( 3)
04 _ 612 __ Dacogawa _____ 46 _ 62 _ --- _ 51 _ 79 _ 71 _ 90 _ 57 _ 63 _ 58 _ 80 ___ 658 ( 9)
05 _ 610 __ DOCARCH ______47 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 60 _ 68 _ 77 _ 68 _ 48 _ 54 _ 71 ___ 705 ( 4)
06 _ 604 __ Bsal __________ 49 _ 58 _ 60 _ 58 _ 67 _ 69 _ 78 _ 81 _ 55 _ 58 _ 75 ___ 708 (t5)
07 _ 602 __ Tae laidir ______ 68 _ 57 _ 56 _ 76 _ 71 _ 68 _ 50 _ 64 _ 72 _ 45 _ 70 ___ 697 ( 7)
09 _ 600 __ Rameire _______ 57 _ 56 _ 52 _ 66 _ 65 _ 70 _ 60 _ 75 _ 57 _ 73 _ 77 ___ 708 (t5)
t09_ 592 __ Lumi __________57 _ 72 _ 72 _ --- _ 70 _ 72 _ --- _ 80 _ 40 _ 69 _ 60 ___ 592 (19)
t09_ 592 __ John mac ______ 58 _ 59 _ 76 _ 62 _ 64 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 47 _ 77 ___ 694 ( 8)

11 _ 587 __ 200motels _____ 64 _ 51 _ 69 _ 52 _ 35 _ 65 _ 69 _ 68 _ 34 _ 69 _ 80 ___ 656 (11)

12 _ 570 __ NormaL _______ 43 _ 68 _ 61 _ 63 _ 61 _ 41 _ 66 _ 66 _ 51 _ 59 _ 75 ___ 654 (12)

12 _ 569 __ sunflower3 _____ 46 _ 48 _ 62 _ 56 _ 54 _ 67 _ 42 _ 78 _ 61 _ 66 _ 77 ___ 657 (10)
13 _ 567 __ sryanbruen _____43 _ 76 _ 62 _ 60 _ 39 _ 70 _ 44 _ 69 _ 58 _ 68 _ 60 ___ 649 (14)
14 _ 563 __ Kindred Spirit ___54 _ 78 _ 55 _ 56 _ 49 _ 64 _ 60 _ 75 _ 51 _ 39 _ 70 ___ 651 (13)
15 _ 562 __ Rikand ________ 54 _ 63 _ 66 _ 54 _ 75 _ 64 _ 46 _ 40 _ 56 _ 54 _ 76 ___ 648 (15)
t16_ 558 __ Dasa29 ________55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 69 _ 45 _ 59 _ 52 _ 56 _ 80 _ 59 _ 69 ___ 652 (12)
t16_558 __ M.T. Cranium ___ 53 _ 46 _ 75 _ 56 _ 44 _ 58 _ 77 _ 47 _ 32 _ 68 _ 78 ___ 634 (16)
18 _ 552 __ waterways _____ 49 _ 58 _ 67 _ 12 _ 67 _ 54 _ 68 _ 59 _ 68 _ 52 _ 59 ___ 613 (17)
19 _524 __ Jpmarn ________70 _ 70 _ 22 _ 55 _ 56 _ 43 _ 51 _ 61 _ 55 _ 62 _ 42 ___ 588 (20)
20 _ 523 __ Joe Public ______36 _ 57 _ 54 _ 46 _ 87 _ 56 _ 45 _ 68 _ 47 _ 44 _ 63 ___ 603 (18)

19 _ 543 _(best of occasionals)--- _ 60 _ 63 _ 68 _ 39 _ 56 _ 74 _ --- _ 47 _ 46 _ 90 ___ 543 (21)

xxx sdanseo _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 56 _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 80 ___ 244
xxx JCX BXC _____________ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 170
xxx Elmer Blooker _________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 46 _ 73 ___ 119
xxx Tazio ________________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 _ --- _ 71 ___ 118
xxx waterjohn ____________--- _ --- _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 101
xxx Western Storm ________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 90 ____90
xxx Rougies _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 84 ____84
xxx Gonzo _______________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 74 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ____74


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Very close at the top now with Con Sensus moving back into first thanks to our cumulative good work in November. In the actual contest, mickger844posts holds on to a slim lead with MrSkinner and Pauldry almost tied a few points behind.

A reminder about ranks -- Con Sensus and NormaL obtain ranks as if they were in the contest, but those ranks do not displace anyone and in this month's edition, NormaL is tied for 11th in all months with 200motels but their score remains untied (with other actual contest entrants). (both have 655 points)

The ranks are ordered by best 9 of 11, and the total score ranks are therefore somewhat random in order although the only real outliers are those who missed either one or two months. If Dacogawa had scored 60 to 70 points in March which he did not enter, he would rank 3rd in all eleven months' points. If Lumi had scored a total of 120 in April and July, she would have ranked 3rd in that category.

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Autumn Sep-Oct-Nov four seasons scoring

FORECASTER ___ TOTAL ____ Points


Con Sensus _____ 229 ______ 10


MrSkinner ______ 220 ______ 10

mickger844posts _ 213 _______ 7

dasa29 _________ 208 _______ 6

Rameire ________ 207 _______ 5

sunflower3 ______ 206 _______ 4

dacogawa _______202 _______ 3

pauldry ________ 201 _______ 2

John mac _______189 _______ 1

Bsal ___________ 188 _______ 1

Tae Laidir _______187 _______ 1

sryanbruen ______186 _______ 0

Rikand _________ 186 _______ 0


NormaL ________ 185 _______ 0


200motels ______ 183 _______ 0

waterways ______ 179 _______ 0

M.T. Cranium ____ 178 _______ 0

DOCARCH _______173 _______ 0

Lumi ___________ 169 _______ 0

Kindred spirit ____ 160 _______ 0

JPmarn _________ 160 _______ 0

Joe Public _______ 154 _______ 0