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November 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for November. The average for 1981-2010 was 7.2 C.

2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS: What will be the lowest maximum daily temperature at any of the 25 regularly reporting stations and which one will record it? (seven points for the numerical guess and three for the location based on lowest, second lowest and any of third to seventh lowest for the one point, superbonus available, two points for maximum scores on both, one point for 6+3 or 7+2.

Here is the entry for NormaL ...

NormaL _______ 7.2 _ 17.0 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 _ 2.5 Knock (3), Ballyhaise, Markree or Mountdillon (2) any of Claremorris, Mullingar, Gurteen, Athenry, Casement (1), any other location (0).

Deadline: 0300h Wednesday 1st of October, penalties as per usual (1 point for every 3 hours or portion late to 00z 3rd then 1 point per hour).

Good luck.

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sryanbruen

sryanbruen _______ 7.4 _ 15.9 _ -2.1 _ 110 _ 118 _ 3.6c Markree

Bsal

Bsal _______ 7.3 _ 15.7 _ -3.0 _ 95 _ 110 _ 4.0 Mullingar

Rougies

Rougies _______ 6.9 _ 16.3 _ -3.2 _ 89 _ 110 _ 4.5 Mt. Dillon

M.T. Cranium

The scores for "NormaL" indicate which stations are most likely to record the low maximum ... see the two forecasts ahead of yours, where they choose any station that will actually record it this November (and it does not have to be in the list, for example, it could be Malin Head, in which case NormaL scores zero, but you score three if that's the right choice.

Also I have edited the choices for NormaL.

So just choose the location (to see all of them, check the met.ie website under latest weather) where you think the month's low maximum will occur. The list for NormaL just defines how NormaL will score on this question. It's not based on anything more than my subjective impression of which stations might do this more often than the pack (over a lot of years). Coastal stations are less likely than inland ones at this time of year. They might win in June or July though.

200motels

200motels__________7.3 _ 16.7 _ -2.8 _ 94 _ 116 _ 3.2 Mullingar

pauldry

Pauldry________8.2_ 17.3 _ -4 _ 90_ 111 _ 3.8c Knock

WesternStorm

WesternStorm _______ 6.9 _ 17.0 _ -3.1 _ 92 _ 102 _ 3.4c Knock

John mac

john mac _______ 7.5 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 97 _ 4.5 mullingar

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _______ 7.4 _ 16.8 _ -4.1 _ 90 _ 90 _ 4.5degC Mountdillon

sdanseo

sdanseo _______ 7.1 _ 17.5 _ -3.4 _ 96 _ 105 _ 3.2 Oak Park

dasa29

dasa29________7.0_ 17.0 _ -2 _ 100_ 90 _ 5.0c Mullingar

Rikand

Rikand ____ 7.5 ____ 17.0 ____ -4.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 3.5 Mt. Dillon

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _______ 6.5 _ 14.5 _ -5.2 _ 70 _ 125 _ 2.0 Knock

Tazio

tazio _______ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -2.0 _ 90 _ 115 _ 4.0c Cork Airport

Elmer Blooker

E.Blooker ______7.8__ 16.8 __ -3.8 __ 80 __ 90 __ 1.8c Knock.

waterways

waterways _______ 7.5 _ 16.0 _ -5.0 _ 103 _ 107 _ 1.5 Claremorris

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___8.1° ___ 16.8 ___ -3.0 ___91 ___ 102 ___ 6.0 Markree.

mickger844posts

mickger844posts__________7.8 _ 15.9 _ -2.8 _ 90 _ 101 _ 5.2 Mullingar

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _______ 7.6 _ 16.8 _ -4.1 _ 112 _ 90 _ 3.2 Ballyhaise.

Joe Public

Joe Public _______ 6.2 _ 16.1 _ -4.9 _ 82 _ 109 _ 2.1 Ballyhaise

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ________ 7.6 _ 15.9 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 106 _ 2.9 Casement

Lumi

Bsal _______ 7.6 _ 14.8 _ -3.7 _ 100 _ 95 _ 5.5 Casement

M.T. Cranium

wot's all this?

MTC _________ 7.2 ___ 16.7 ___ -3.9 ___ 100 ___ 080 ___ 2.3 Ballyhaise

By my later not so rough count, five "new" forecasters, one reply not a forecast, so 22 forecasts to this point meaning 17/20 of the regulars have posted. Hurry scurry you others (noting that 0300h is 03z now). Of the "new" I have included three who have posted once or twice in the past, welcome one and all.

mrskinner

Skinner______6.6_____15.9______-3.9_______110_____90_____3.2 Markree

rameire

Rameire____ 7.4 ____ 16.0 ____ -3.0 ____ 95 ____ 90 ____ 3.8 Mullingar

Late as usual.

dacogawa

Dacogawa _______ 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 91 _ 127 _ 3.9 Knock

Apologies for the late entry

M.T. Cranium

November 2017 forecasts

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max, loc'n

Pauldry____________8.2 _ 17.3 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 111 ___ 3.8 _ Knock
Kindred Spirit ______ 8.1 _ 16.8 _ -3.0 _ 091 _ 102 ___ 6.0 _ Markree.
Elmer Blooker ______7.8 _ 16.8 _ -3.8 _ 080 _ 090 ___ 1.8 _ Knock.
mickger844posts ___ 7.8 _ 15.9 _ -2.8 _ 090 _ 101 ___ 5.2 _ Mullingar
DOCARCH _________7.6 _ 16.8 _ -4.1 _ 112 _ 090 ___ 3.2 _ Ballyhaise.
Tae laidir __________7.6 _ 15.9 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 106 ___ 2.9 _ Casement
Lumi _____________ 7.6 _ 14.8 _ -3.7 _ 100 _ 095 ___ 5.5 _ Casement
john mac __________7.5 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 4.5 _ Mullingar
Rikand ____________7.5 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 3.5 _ Mt. Dillon
waterways _________7.5 _ 16.0 _ -5.0 _ 103 _ 107 ___ 1.5 _ Claremorris
Sunflower3 ________ 7.4 _ 16.8 _ -4.1 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 4.5 _ Mt. Dillon
Rameire ___ (-2) ___ 7.4 _ 16.0 _ -3.0 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 3.8 _ Mullingar
sryanbruen ________ 7.4 _ 15.9 _ -2.1 _ 110 _ 118 ___ 3.6 _ Markree

200motels_________ 7.3 _ 16.7 _ -2.8 _ 094 _ 116 ___ 3.2 _ Mullingar
Bsal ______________7.3 _ 15.7 _ -3.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 4.0 _ Mullingar

NormaL___________ 7.2 _ 17.0 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 2.5 _ Knock (3), see**

M.T. Cranium ______ 7.2 _ 16.7 _ -3.9 _ 100 _ 080 ___ 2.3 _ Ballyhaise
sdanseo __________ 7.1 _ 17.5 _ -3.4 _ 096 _ 105 ___ 3.2 _ Oak Park
dasa29 ___________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 5.0 _ Mullingar
Tazio _____________7.0 _ 17.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 4.0 _ Cork Airport
WesternStorm _____ 6.9 _ 17.0 _ -3.1 _ 092 _ 102 ___ 3.4 _ Knock
Dacogawa __ (-3) __ 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -4.2 _ 091 _ 127 ___ 3.9 _ Knock
Rougies ___________6.9 _ 16.3 _ -3.2 _ 089 _ 110 ___ 4.5 _ Mt. Dillon
Mr Skinner_________6.6 _ 15.9 _ -3.9 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 3.2 _ Markree
Jpmarn ___________ 6.5 _ 14.5 _ -5.2 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 2.0 _ Knock
Joe Public _________ 6.2 _ 16.1 _ -4.9 _ 082 _ 109 ___ 2.1 _ Ballyhaise
__________________________________________________

@ For Con Sensus, highest score of any of these outcomes will apply:
... Mullingar (chosen by 6) will score 3 if coldest, 2 if second coldest, 1 if third coldest max.
... Knock (chosen by 5) will score 2 if coldest, 1 if second coldest.
... Ballyhaise, Markree or Mt. Dillon (chosen by 3 each) will score 1 if coldest.

... other choices that cannot score for Con Sensus include Casement (2) and Oak Park, Cork and Claremorris (1).

If three places not chosen by any forecasters score 1-2-3 in the low max then all entrants will receive one point.

** For NormaL, Ballyhaise, Markree or Mountdillon would score 2 and any of Claremorris, Mullingar, Gurteen, Athenry, Casement would score 1, while any other location scores zero.

Con Sensus is based on the median of 25 forecasts and is therefore the 13th ranked value.

M.T. Cranium

16.6 MAX at Newport on 1st.

M.T. Cranium

Due to my recent road trip, I had no opportunity to update the monthly data after first week so we'll do things backwards this month and start with the first nine days then update each week after that.

IMT after nine days was 8.1 C, slightly above normal for the period.

PRC after nine days was 62% of normal.

SUN after nine days was 130% of normal.

MAX as noted earlier 16.6, MIN --2.5 at Mullingar 8th.

Low max of 7.7 was noted (Knock) but that might not be the lowest, at any rate eventual low max probably a few degrees colder than anything seen so far.

Tae laidir

Low Max 7.5 Dublin Airport yesterday.