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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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    #182
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,522 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    I remember the Xmas storms a couple of decades ago (90’s someone here will point the date,there was one two xmas’s in a row) and the main item on the BBC tv news was 100000 homes in the republic without power

    I'd imagine widespread power outages are a cert if this comes off as predicted.


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    #183
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,839 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    All subject to change of course at this far out

    8287_cvd1.png


    4582_ryy4.png


    7033_bnp7.png


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    #184
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    thomasj wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/918552931368161282

    Best place for it
    A few 100 miles off shore


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    #185
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    I remember the Xmas storms a couple of decades ago (90’s someone here will point the date,there was one two xmas’s in a row) and the main item on the BBC tv news was 100000 homes in the republic without power

    Yeah 97 an 98.

    The '98 storm is still the most severe I've experienced in this country, I lived right on the NW Donegal coast, we lost power and telephones for almost a week and almost every exposed house in the area was damaged

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/two-die-in-worst-storms-to-hit-ireland-since-1961-1.228917


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    #186
    Clonmel1000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    You'd want 70kt+ gusts to be getting 130km/h gusts. Strongest I remember in recent years was 79kts at Shannon, that was a scarily windy Wednesday!(12/01/14).

    12/02/14 I think but I take your point.

    Good that this is being flagged and monitored but people being scared witless at this stage is a tad ott.


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    #187
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,350 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Think that should be 12/02/14 ...

    ... storm surge potential would be 1.0 to 1.5 metres above normal tide levels. Somebody might want to research times of high tides for Cork and Waterford on 16th.

    ... rainfall potential with storms of this type usually rather insignificant, 20-30 mm ahead of the low and rapidly occluding fronts, but a dry slot develops very quickly and any wrap around moisture will be quite limited usually. Amounts of only 10 mm would not be uncommon if these maps verify. You could expect somewhat more if it happened to move further east.

    ... with the rapid occlusion phase you have the same potential as existed with the October 1987 storm in southern England for fast-moving squally thunderstorms along the front. That would quickly outpace the low centre and could move across the entire country in a matter of 3 or 4 hours (from ECM track would say 15z to 19z).

    I wonder if all of this will seem completely irrelevant on Sunday or will be fine-tuned to a final forecast? All depends on what Ophelia herself decides to do next 24-36h as she gathers speed passing close to the southeastern Azores by Saturday.


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    #188
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,839 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/918542029331853312


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    #189
    NIMAN
    Registered Users Posts: 33,105 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Yeah 97 an 98.

    The '98 storm is still the most severe I've experienced in this country, I lived right on the NW Donegal coast, we lost power and telephones for almost a week and almost every exposed house in the area was damaged

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/two-die-in-worst-storms-to-hit-ireland-since-1961-1.228917

    Remember that, my OH is from there and she was without power for ages.

    Was there snow that winter too? I remember a time when they were snowed in too for at least a couple of days.Same year?


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    #190
    pp_me
    Registered Users Posts: 197 ✭✭pp_me


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Think that should be 12/02/14 ...

    ... storm surge potential would be 1.0 to 1.5 metres above normal tide levels. Somebody might want to research times of high tides for Cork and Waterford on 16th.

    High tide in Waterford at 16:44! :pac:


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    #191
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,350 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Ophelia has not moved more than ten miles over the past six hours, but she looks energetic and there's a wider field of convective activity out ahead towards the Azores now.

    I think there must be some slight potential for a complete change in outlook where Ophelia fails to engage with the jet stream and does some other unforeseen thing as was the model scenario days ago (in some cases), even a slight move back to the southwest was being shown. I don't think this will happen but there must be a 1 or 2 per cent chance of it.

    Not much forward progress was expected today anyway so this is not some developing large error and it's unclear whether it would change the overall track probability, I suppose the later it engages, the further east it might track since the jet stream will go on without picking it up for a longer interval. This might be why the GEM was tracking it further east until the last set.


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    #192
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    18Z wind analysis, showing max winds of 66 knots east of the centre. The latest NHC estimate has it at 75 knots.

    2017AL17_MPSATWND_201710121800_SWHR.GIF

    18Z early intensity forecasts, mostly showing strong storms force/borderline hurricane-force come Monday evening.

    aal17_2017101218_intensity_early.png


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    #193
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,837 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Think that should be 12/02/14 ...

    ... storm surge potential would be 1.0 to 1.5 metres above normal tide levels. Somebody might want to research times of high tides for Cork and Waterford on 16th.

    Cork high tide is at 3:49pm (3.35m)

    Dublin high tides at 10:01am (3.89m) and 10:14pm (4.10m)

    Other tides nearer your location can be found here

    https://www.tide-forecast.com/


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    #194
    Floki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Floki


    pp_me wrote: »
    High tide in Waterford at 16:44! :pac:

    New Ross could be flooded then so.


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    #195
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,114 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Yup, means 12/02/14, just hit the wrong key!


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    #196
    MidMan25
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    All subject to change of course at this far out

    8287_cvd1.png

    I'm living in the area of highest winds a few miles from the coast :eek:


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    #197
    my3cents
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,764 ✭✭✭my3cents


    dacogawa wrote: »
    Cork high tide is at 3:49pm (3.35m)

    Dublin high tides at 10:01am (3.89m) and 10:14pm (4.10m)

    Other tides nearer your location can be found here

    https://www.tide-forecast.com/

    Checked ours earlier as a precaution and for the Waterford area the high tide is 90 or more cm's below the highest winter tides which gives us an extra bit of head room. Highest tide around Dungarvan can be about 4.3m Sunday morning at 2PM its 3.4m

    You'll get more areas on the tide forecasts at http://www.ukho.gov.uk/easytide/ .


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    #198
    snusie
    Registered Users Posts: 15 ✭snusie


    I see cork and Galway being in the centre, presumably that means Limerick is in for a battering also?


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    #199
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,114 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    snusie wrote: »
    I see cork and Galway being in the centre, presumably that means Limerick is in for a battering also?

    Pretty much yes! Not as bad, but still could be red warning criteria based on current forecasts.

    Keep in mind we are still 4 days away!


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    #200
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    NIMAN wrote: »
    Remember that, my OH is from there and she was without power for ages.

    Was there snow that winter too? I remember a time when they were snowed in too for at least a couple of days.Same year?

    2000 probably, we had plenty of snow around Christmas that lasted about 4 or 5 days if I remember right


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    #201
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Lots of very envious posters over on the netweather forum in the UK who would love to experience the full force of nature,to experience something similar to a hurricane,some are even contemplating flying over!

    From some of those charts it looks as the more common storm prone areas e.g west Mayo,Donegal are avoiding the worst with the centre of the low passing directly over them, might not experience anything noteworthy here in coastal Mayo so, tut.


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    #202
    snusie
    Registered Users Posts: 15 ✭snusie


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Pretty much yes! Not as bad, but still could be red warning criteria based on current forecasts.

    Keep in mind we are still 4 days away!

    I'm assuming we'll get something similar to the '98 St Stephen's day storm here? Or are we looking at something worse?


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    #203
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,839 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Todays Sat pic around the middle of the day


    https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-10-12&z=3&v=-98.25616554829386,4.11210474493673,36.743834451706135,70.83866724493673

    j7KdH94.jpg?1


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    #204
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,839 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ZCtp4sw.png


    The next two probably based on the GFS model.


    b3ZTbpC.png


    Xj8sxoa.png


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    #205
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Longer term, another windy night possible coming up next Friday.
    Ophelia looking mostly a S&W Coast event, just 90kph max gusts on East, but IOM could see 120, not a day to get the Ferry or prop-plane.

    -weaa_copy.png


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    #206
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,674 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Maddison Gray Wheelbarrow wrote: »
    Longer term, another windy night possible coming up next Friday.
    Ophelia looking mostly a S&W Coast event, just 90kph max gusts on East, but IOM could see 120, not a day to get the Ferry or prop-plane.

    -weaa_copy.png

    That's based on the GFS model which has it further west than most other models. ECM and UKMO are showing a direct hit on Ireland with much more widespread effects.


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    #207
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    2000 probably, we had plenty of snow around Christmas that lasted about 4 or 5 days if I remember right

    After the 1998 storm, Stephen's Day showers turned wintry in the north and there was some snow. But deffo 2000 had in the northern half of the country.

    My main memory of the Christmas Eve 1997 southern Ireland, mostly, storm was trying to get a mare in out of a field at home who lost the plot. She kicked me when i was getting her into a stable and i got walloped off a concrete yard and was concussed. The weather was too bad for A&E so i came too a few hours later and missed most of the storm!


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    #208
    Doltanian
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,201 ✭✭✭Doltanian


    The ground is absolutely saturated and most trees are still in leaf, this will fell a few million trees if it hits dead on Ireland as predicted.


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    #209
    my3cents
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,764 ✭✭✭my3cents


    Doltanian wrote: »
    The ground is absolutely saturated and most trees are still in leaf, this will fell a few million trees if it hits dead on Ireland as predicted.

    I slept through all of the 87 Hurricane in the south of the UK so hope I can sleep through this one. The big bump in my dream in the middle of the night was a 120ft tall Lime tree just missing the house.


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    #210
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users Posts: 35,721 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    It could be a killer.


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    #211
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    Doltanian wrote: »
    The ground is absolutely saturated and most trees are still in leaf, this will fell a few million trees if it hits dead on Ireland as predicted.

    The one thing that keeps entering my mind is the date will be 16 October. The UK storm, which felled Seven Oaks etc, was on the night of the 15/16 October 1987. I've found with weather phenomena history can have a strange habit of repeating itself..


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