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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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MJohnston

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I remember the Xmas storms a couple of decades ago (90’s someone here will point the date,there was one two xmas’s in a row) and the main item on the BBC tv news was 100000 homes in the republic without power

I'd imagine widespread power outages are a cert if this comes off as predicted.

Meteorite58

All subject to change of course at this far out

George Sunsnow

thomasj wrote: »

https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/918552931368161282

Best place for it
A few 100 miles off shore

Donegal Storm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I remember the Xmas storms a couple of decades ago (90’s someone here will point the date,there was one two xmas’s in a row) and the main item on the BBC tv news was 100000 homes in the republic without power

Yeah 97 an 98.

The '98 storm is still the most severe I've experienced in this country, I lived right on the NW Donegal coast, we lost power and telephones for almost a week and almost every exposed house in the area was damaged

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/two-die-in-worst-storms-to-hit-ireland-since-1961-1.228917

Clonmel1000

JCX BXC wrote: »

You'd want 70kt+ gusts to be getting 130km/h gusts. Strongest I remember in recent years was 79kts at Shannon, that was a scarily windy Wednesday!(12/01/14).

12/02/14 I think but I take your point.

Good that this is being flagged and monitored but people being scared witless at this stage is a tad ott.

M.T. Cranium

Think that should be 12/02/14 ...

... storm surge potential would be 1.0 to 1.5 metres above normal tide levels. Somebody might want to research times of high tides for Cork and Waterford on 16th.

... rainfall potential with storms of this type usually rather insignificant, 20-30 mm ahead of the low and rapidly occluding fronts, but a dry slot develops very quickly and any wrap around moisture will be quite limited usually. Amounts of only 10 mm would not be uncommon if these maps verify. You could expect somewhat more if it happened to move further east.

... with the rapid occlusion phase you have the same potential as existed with the October 1987 storm in southern England for fast-moving squally thunderstorms along the front. That would quickly outpace the low centre and could move across the entire country in a matter of 3 or 4 hours (from ECM track would say 15z to 19z).

I wonder if all of this will seem completely irrelevant on Sunday or will be fine-tuned to a final forecast? All depends on what Ophelia herself decides to do next 24-36h as she gathers speed passing close to the southeastern Azores by Saturday.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/918542029331853312

NIMAN

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Yeah 97 an 98.

The '98 storm is still the most severe I've experienced in this country, I lived right on the NW Donegal coast, we lost power and telephones for almost a week and almost every exposed house in the area was damaged

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/two-die-in-worst-storms-to-hit-ireland-since-1961-1.228917

Remember that, my OH is from there and she was without power for ages.

Was there snow that winter too? I remember a time when they were snowed in too for at least a couple of days.Same year?

pp_me

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Think that should be 12/02/14 ...

... storm surge potential would be 1.0 to 1.5 metres above normal tide levels. Somebody might want to research times of high tides for Cork and Waterford on 16th.

High tide in Waterford at 16:44! :pac:

M.T. Cranium

Ophelia has not moved more than ten miles over the past six hours, but she looks energetic and there's a wider field of convective activity out ahead towards the Azores now.

I think there must be some slight potential for a complete change in outlook where Ophelia fails to engage with the jet stream and does some other unforeseen thing as was the model scenario days ago (in some cases), even a slight move back to the southwest was being shown. I don't think this will happen but there must be a 1 or 2 per cent chance of it.

Not much forward progress was expected today anyway so this is not some developing large error and it's unclear whether it would change the overall track probability, I suppose the later it engages, the further east it might track since the jet stream will go on without picking it up for a longer interval. This might be why the GEM was tracking it further east until the last set.

Gaoth Laidir

18Z wind analysis, showing max winds of 66 knots east of the centre. The latest NHC estimate has it at 75 knots.

18Z early intensity forecasts, mostly showing strong storms force/borderline hurricane-force come Monday evening.

dacogawa

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Think that should be 12/02/14 ...

... storm surge potential would be 1.0 to 1.5 metres above normal tide levels. Somebody might want to research times of high tides for Cork and Waterford on 16th.

Cork high tide is at 3:49pm (3.35m)

Dublin high tides at 10:01am (3.89m) and 10:14pm (4.10m)

Other tides nearer your location can be found here

https://www.tide-forecast.com/

Floki

pp_me wrote: »

High tide in Waterford at 16:44! :pac:

New Ross could be flooded then so.

JCX BXC

Yup, means 12/02/14, just hit the wrong key!

MidMan25

Meteorite58 wrote: »

All subject to change of course at this far out

I'm living in the area of highest winds a few miles from the coast :eek:

my3cents

dacogawa wrote: »

Cork high tide is at 3:49pm (3.35m)

Dublin high tides at 10:01am (3.89m) and 10:14pm (4.10m)

Other tides nearer your location can be found here

https://www.tide-forecast.com/

Checked ours earlier as a precaution and for the Waterford area the high tide is 90 or more cm's below the highest winter tides which gives us an extra bit of head room. Highest tide around Dungarvan can be about 4.3m Sunday morning at 2PM its 3.4m

You'll get more areas on the tide forecasts at http://www.ukho.gov.uk/easytide/ .

snusie

I see cork and Galway being in the centre, presumably that means Limerick is in for a battering also?

JCX BXC

snusie wrote: »

I see cork and Galway being in the centre, presumably that means Limerick is in for a battering also?

Pretty much yes! Not as bad, but still could be red warning criteria based on current forecasts.

Keep in mind we are still 4 days away!

Donegal Storm

NIMAN wrote: »

Remember that, my OH is from there and she was without power for ages.

Was there snow that winter too? I remember a time when they were snowed in too for at least a couple of days.Same year?

2000 probably, we had plenty of snow around Christmas that lasted about 4 or 5 days if I remember right

squarecircles

Lots of very envious posters over on the netweather forum in the UK who would love to experience the full force of nature,to experience something similar to a hurricane,some are even contemplating flying over!

From some of those charts it looks as the more common storm prone areas e.g west Mayo,Donegal are avoiding the worst with the centre of the low passing directly over them, might not experience anything noteworthy here in coastal Mayo so, tut.

snusie

JCX BXC wrote: »

Pretty much yes! Not as bad, but still could be red warning criteria based on current forecasts.

Keep in mind we are still 4 days away!

I'm assuming we'll get something similar to the '98 St Stephen's day storm here? Or are we looking at something worse?

Meteorite58

Todays Sat pic around the middle of the day

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-10-12&z=3&v=-98.25616554829386,4.11210474493673,36.743834451706135,70.83866724493673

j7KdH94.jpg?1

Meteorite58

The next two probably based on the GFS model.

4068ac1elhodqr

Longer term, another windy night possible coming up next Friday.
Ophelia looking mostly a S&W Coast event, just 90kph max gusts on East, but IOM could see 120, not a day to get the Ferry or prop-plane.

Rougies

Maddison Gray Wheelbarrow wrote: »

Longer term, another windy night possible coming up next Friday.
Ophelia looking mostly a S&W Coast event, just 90kph max gusts on East, but IOM could see 120, not a day to get the Ferry or prop-plane.

That's based on the GFS model which has it further west than most other models. ECM and UKMO are showing a direct hit on Ireland with much more widespread effects.

nagdefy

Donegal Storm wrote: »

2000 probably, we had plenty of snow around Christmas that lasted about 4 or 5 days if I remember right

After the 1998 storm, Stephen's Day showers turned wintry in the north and there was some snow. But deffo 2000 had in the northern half of the country.

My main memory of the Christmas Eve 1997 southern Ireland, mostly, storm was trying to get a mare in out of a field at home who lost the plot. She kicked me when i was getting her into a stable and i got walloped off a concrete yard and was concussed. The weather was too bad for A&E so i came too a few hours later and missed most of the storm!

Doltanian

The ground is absolutely saturated and most trees are still in leaf, this will fell a few million trees if it hits dead on Ireland as predicted.

my3cents

Doltanian wrote: »

The ground is absolutely saturated and most trees are still in leaf, this will fell a few million trees if it hits dead on Ireland as predicted.

I slept through all of the 87 Hurricane in the south of the UK so hope I can sleep through this one. The big bump in my dream in the middle of the night was a 120ft tall Lime tree just missing the house.

BorneTobyWilde

It could be a killer.

nagdefy

Doltanian wrote: »

The ground is absolutely saturated and most trees are still in leaf, this will fell a few million trees if it hits dead on Ireland as predicted.

The one thing that keeps entering my mind is the date will be 16 October. The UK storm, which felled Seven Oaks etc, was on the night of the 15/16 October 1987. I've found with weather phenomena history can have a strange habit of repeating itself..