nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

MJohnston

Deleted User wrote: »

Latest GFS rolling out at 10.30. Interesting to see if it falls into line with the other models.

I noted that the GFS was considered far inferior to the ECM for predicting tracks of the various hurricanes that hit the US coasts this season, I wonder does that same differential exist for storms on this side of the Atlantic

sdanseo

pad199207 wrote: »

As of the 5pm advisory Ophelia is now upgraded to a Category 2 Storm.

NHC giving it an easterly shift and a substantial upgrade. Shows it as a Hurricane over land in Ireland.

TheMilkyPirate

As long as it passed with no casualties I'd love to get a direct hit off this, Be some experience down in hook head

Itssoeasy

Doltanian wrote: »

RTE don't want to worry people and rightly so and it won't be until Saturday until we get a clearer picture and it might swing out into the Atlantic towards Iceland. Remember Ireland is a tiny country and as we saw with Hurricane Irma it changed course slightly as it closed in of Florida, that small change of direction would be enough to miss our small island. If it strikes straight on then Kerry and Cork will get an awful battering and it will nearly certainly take lives.

I'm taking no chances and everything likely to become a projectile will be secured tomorrow by me, I lost a farm shed in Storm Darwin back in early 2014 which cost €15,000 to replace.

oh that sounds like a bit of painful open bank account surgery. My parents are away for the weekend so I might pay a visit to my grandmothers as she has a huge garden and some sheds just asking to turn into projectiles.

antodeco

If that's the case, let's hope it misses.

[Deleted User]

Latest GFS rolling out at 10.30. Interesting to see if it falls into line with the other models.

pad199207

As of the 5pm advisory Ophelia is now upgraded to a Category 2 Storm.

TheMilkyPirate

Cat-2 hurricane now

nagdefy

aisling86 wrote: »

If a level 3 warning is issued, do schools close? It wouldn't have been something I had to think about previous years....

I'd imagine so Aisling. I remember for storm Darwin in Feb 2014 there was a lot of criticism that schools weren't closed in the initial red area warning zones of Cork and Kerry. Of course as that morning and afternoon progressed a much larger area of the country was in a red warning area.

Cork and Kerry were given a level 3 warning on the 9.30 met tv broadcast the evening before.

Doltanian

RTE don't want to worry people and rightly so and it won't be until Saturday until we get a clearer picture and it might swing out into the Atlantic towards Iceland. Remember Ireland is a tiny country and as we saw with Hurricane Irma it changed course slightly as it closed in of Florida, that small change of direction would be enough to miss our small island. If it strikes straight on then Kerry and Cork will get an awful battering and it will nearly certainly take lives.

I'm taking no chances and everything likely to become a projectile will be secured tomorrow by me, I lost a farm shed in Storm Darwin back in early 2014 which cost €15,000 to replace.

MJohnston

We really need a better name for these kinds of storms than 'severe gales', we should borrow Orkan.

aisling86

If a level 3 warning is issued, do schools close? It wouldn't have been something I had to think about previous years....

squarecircles

Weather News

Met.ie

Update on Ophelia
12 October 2017
There has been some media coverage that hurricane Ophelia will impact Ireland to some degree at the start of next week. At this stage, there is strong evidence from the weather forecast models that its remnants will track close to or even over parts of Ireland, but at present, there are still a wide spread of possible outcomes. Our forecasters are treating the situation with caution and are in contact with our international colleagues, but given the lead time and the inherent uncertainties that come with the modelling of a tropical system it won’t be possible to quantify the exact timing, nor the strength or intensity of the wind and rain, in any great detail until later in the weekend. Ophelia won’t be a hurricane in meteorological terms when it reaches our part of the world as she will have moved over the cooler waters of the mid-Atlantic and undergone what is known as extra-tropical transition. So while there could be the threat of wind gusts reaching hurricane force or indeed heavy rainfall with this system, it means the traditional attributes of a hurricane – such as an eye or an eye-wall containing a core of hurricane force winds - are very unlikely to be present. Instead, it will likely engage and merge with a frontal zone in the Atlantic, morphing into a mid-latitude depression with tropical characteristics. Met Éireann forecasters will be keeping a close eye on the evolution of this storm over the coming days and warnings will be issued as confidence in the evolution allows.

dacogawa

RTE Weather for Monday:

Potential high impact, keep up to date with forecasts. Sensible warning.

nagdefy

A very good documentary on the October 1987 UK storm.

Itssoeasy

MidMan25 wrote: »

I'm living in the area of highest winds a few miles from the coast :eek:

My parents have a mobile home in East Cork. I'm not liking those bright colours in that area.

nagdefy

Doltanian wrote: »

The ground is absolutely saturated and most trees are still in leaf, this will fell a few million trees if it hits dead on Ireland as predicted.

The one thing that keeps entering my mind is the date will be 16 October. The UK storm, which felled Seven Oaks etc, was on the night of the 15/16 October 1987. I've found with weather phenomena history can have a strange habit of repeating itself..

BorneTobyWilde

It could be a killer.

my3cents

Doltanian wrote: »

The ground is absolutely saturated and most trees are still in leaf, this will fell a few million trees if it hits dead on Ireland as predicted.

I slept through all of the 87 Hurricane in the south of the UK so hope I can sleep through this one. The big bump in my dream in the middle of the night was a 120ft tall Lime tree just missing the house.

Doltanian

The ground is absolutely saturated and most trees are still in leaf, this will fell a few million trees if it hits dead on Ireland as predicted.

nagdefy

Donegal Storm wrote: »

2000 probably, we had plenty of snow around Christmas that lasted about 4 or 5 days if I remember right

After the 1998 storm, Stephen's Day showers turned wintry in the north and there was some snow. But deffo 2000 had in the northern half of the country.

My main memory of the Christmas Eve 1997 southern Ireland, mostly, storm was trying to get a mare in out of a field at home who lost the plot. She kicked me when i was getting her into a stable and i got walloped off a concrete yard and was concussed. The weather was too bad for A&E so i came too a few hours later and missed most of the storm!

Rougies

Maddison Gray Wheelbarrow wrote: »

Longer term, another windy night possible coming up next Friday.
Ophelia looking mostly a S&W Coast event, just 90kph max gusts on East, but IOM could see 120, not a day to get the Ferry or prop-plane.

That's based on the GFS model which has it further west than most other models. ECM and UKMO are showing a direct hit on Ireland with much more widespread effects.

4068ac1elhodqr

Longer term, another windy night possible coming up next Friday.
Ophelia looking mostly a S&W Coast event, just 90kph max gusts on East, but IOM could see 120, not a day to get the Ferry or prop-plane.

Meteorite58

The next two probably based on the GFS model.

Meteorite58

Todays Sat pic around the middle of the day

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-10-12&z=3&v=-98.25616554829386,4.11210474493673,36.743834451706135,70.83866724493673

j7KdH94.jpg?1

snusie

JCX BXC wrote: »

Pretty much yes! Not as bad, but still could be red warning criteria based on current forecasts.

Keep in mind we are still 4 days away!

I'm assuming we'll get something similar to the '98 St Stephen's day storm here? Or are we looking at something worse?

squarecircles

Lots of very envious posters over on the netweather forum in the UK who would love to experience the full force of nature,to experience something similar to a hurricane,some are even contemplating flying over!

From some of those charts it looks as the more common storm prone areas e.g west Mayo,Donegal are avoiding the worst with the centre of the low passing directly over them, might not experience anything noteworthy here in coastal Mayo so, tut.

Donegal Storm

NIMAN wrote: »

Remember that, my OH is from there and she was without power for ages.

Was there snow that winter too? I remember a time when they were snowed in too for at least a couple of days.Same year?

2000 probably, we had plenty of snow around Christmas that lasted about 4 or 5 days if I remember right

JCX BXC

snusie wrote: »

I see cork and Galway being in the centre, presumably that means Limerick is in for a battering also?

Pretty much yes! Not as bad, but still could be red warning criteria based on current forecasts.

Keep in mind we are still 4 days away!

snusie

I see cork and Galway being in the centre, presumably that means Limerick is in for a battering also?