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Major Hurricane Maria
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18-09-2017 9:12pm#1Maria is now a major Cat 3 Hurricane with speeds around 105 kts and soon forecast to become a Cat 4 Hurricane. The track takes it through the Leeward Islands, approach The Virgin Islands and cross Puerto Rica. NHC saying it is set to strengthen rapidly and reach conservative peak speeds of 130 kt in about 30 hrs.
NHC
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.
2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane watch is in effect for that island.
A hurricane warning will likely be issued later today.
3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
Models showing the possibility that Maria will begin to veer Northwestwards Sat /Sun .
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NHC summary.
And on Maria marches. Cat 5 , sustained winds near 140 kts, central pressure 927 mb The centre of the hurricane is forecast to pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Weds.after that maria is forecast to weaken due to upper winds being less favourable and partially due to the large circulation of Jose off the U.S East coast.
Maria is forecast to be about 135 -140 kt when it makes landfall in Puerto Rico.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Maria will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands
today and the core of the hurricane is expected to move near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. Everyone
in these areas should follow advice from local officials to avoid
life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.
2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 16.3N 63.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 17.0N 64.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 18.0N 65.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 18.8N 67.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 19.6N 68.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 21.5N 70.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 24.5N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 27.5N 72.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Donegal Storm wrote: »Worrying that there's still seemingly no news coming from Dominica, hopefully a sign that there's been no major damage but it was the same with Barbuda last time and as we saw then, the entire island was flattened with all communication lines down. I see the prime minister had to be rescued after his roof blew off but there's not been any other reports all day
I was just reading the thread in the hope there had been some update about Dominica - seems to be nothing more than the Prime Minister's facebook post...which is a bit worrisome.
Roosevelt Skerrit, the prime minister of Dominica, has posted an update on Facebook in which he asks for help for his devastated island:
Initial reports are of widespread devastation. So far we have lost all what money can buy and replace.
My greatest fear for the morning is that we will wake to news of serious physical injury and possible deaths as a result of likely landslides triggered by persistent rains.
So far the winds have swept away the roofs of almost every person I have spoken to or otherwise made contact with. The roof to my own official residence was among the first to go and this apparently triggered an avalanche of torn-away roofs in the city and the countryside.
Come tomorrow morning we will hit the road, as soon as the all-clear is given, in search of the injured and those trapped in the rubble.
I am honestly not preoccupied with physical damage at this time, because it is devastating … indeed, mind-boggling. My focus now is in rescuing the trapped and securing medical assistance for the injured.
We will need help, my friend, we will need help of all kinds.
It is too early to speak of the condition of the air and seaports, but I suspect both will be inoperable for a few days. That is why I am eager now to solicit the support of friendly nations and organisations with helicopter services, for I personally am eager to get up and get around the country to see and determine what’s needed.
Taken from HERE0 -
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At leas Lee is dissipating, so there may be some relief in that.It was just heading out into the Atlantic anyways
The NHC mention the possibility of its remnants reforming a tropical cyclone over the weekend...1. A small low pressure area, the remnants of Lee, is producing disorganized shower activity about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone by the weekend while the system moves northwestward to northward over the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Maria is currently right in the lowest shear area it could be in. Hopefully it catches more shear soon enough.
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St. Croix TAF is not too remarkable (highest winds 50 gust 80 knots). Seems low, considering Maria will pass only about 20-30 miles to the south as a Cat 5.
TISX 191742Z 1918/2018 03020G30KT 5SM -SHRA SCT020 BKN030
FM192000 02035G50KT 3SM +TSRA SCT020 BKN030CB
FM192330 01050G80KT 1SM +TSRA SCT020CB BKN030
FM200300 13050G80KT 1SM +TSRA SCT020CB BKN030
FM201000 20025G40KT 3SM +TSRA BKN030CB
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Reading from Levi Cowan ' Only 9 Atlantic hurricanes have had a pressure lower than #Maria's ~909 mb based on 910 mb dropsonde with 14 kt surface wind
And Maria is still strengthtening over warm deep waters.
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/9102774438769827840 -
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