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Major Hurricane Maria

Meteorite58

Maria is now a major Cat 3 Hurricane with speeds around 105 kts and soon forecast to become a Cat 4 Hurricane. The track takes it through the Leeward Islands, approach The Virgin Islands and cross Puerto Rica. NHC saying it is set to strengthen rapidly and reach conservative peak speeds of 130 kt in about 30 hrs.

NHC

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane watch is in effect for that island.
A hurricane warning will likely be issued later today.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.

Models showing the possibility that Maria will begin to veer Northwestwards Sat /Sun .

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Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/909869646349815810

https://twitter.com/EUStormMap/status/909855246867927041

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/909853355886940161

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/909838545367519232

pad199207

Now CAT 4

NIMAN

Oh no, here we go again

Hopefully won't do any damage on Irma scale.

josip

Just read about it now being CAT 4 on the BBC.
The last time I read this afternoon it was only CAT 1.
I came on here to find out what the real story was.
Is there really any more damage that could be done to St. Martin and the Virgin Islands after Irma?

Inquitus

josip wrote: »

Just read about it now being CAT 4 on the BBC.
The last time I read this afternoon it was only CAT 1.
I came on here to find out what the real story was.
Is there really any more damage that could be done to St. Martin and the Virgin Islands after Irma?

Looks like Puerto Rico could get slapped with a Cat 5 as this develops, at least that seems the worst outcome for Maria at present.

conditioned games

Another Geo Engineered Hurricane created by our controllers. Climate change hoax will be blamed again. Photos so far have been pointing towards unnormal cloud formations developing off the cape Verde islands through their manipulation of the weather.

MOTE NOTE : Stay on topic. See No.5 of the Forum Charter No trolling/goading posts which serve only to aggravate other users.

Donegal Storm

josip wrote: »

Just read about it now being CAT 4 on the BBC.
The last time I read this afternoon it was only CAT 1.
I came on here to find out what the real story was.
Is there really any more damage that could be done to St. Martin and the Virgin Islands after Irma?

Looks like this one is going to track slightly further south so will hit Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe before heading straight for Puerto Rico. The already devastated islands will still get hit but more of a glancing blow compared to last time.

Donegal Storm

conditioned games wrote: »

Another Geo Engineered Hurricane created by our controllers. Climate change hoax will be blamed again. Photos so far have been pointing towards unnormal cloud formations developing off the cape Verde islands through their manipulation of the weather.

Care to share these photos? What exactly is abnormal about thunderstorms forming in the south Atlantic at the height of hurricane season?

Meteorite58

Seems to be intensifying at an alarming rate.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/909890224469266432

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/909890431189692416

Meteorite58

Convectiveweather

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/HurricaneLive.php?Wallet=5

1vYUki5.png?1

Rikand

This storm has gotten so organised so fast. Yesterday it was just a mess of clouds and now its a tight spiral of pain.

How it looked yesterday ::

dfx-

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Looks like this one is going to track slightly further south so will hit Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe before heading straight for Puerto Rico. The already devastated islands will still get hit but more of a glancing blow compared to last time.

Looks like whatever Irma missed east of Haiti and south of Barbuda, Maria is going to hit just as hard.

Meteorite58

MOTE NOTE : Stay on topic. See No.5 of the Forum Charter No trolling/goading posts which serve only to aggravate other users.

Quote:conditioned games

Another Geo Engineered Hurricane created by our controllers. Climate change hoax will be blamed again. Photos so far have been pointing towards unnormal cloud formations developing off the cape Verde islands through their manipulation of the weather.

Kermit.de.frog

Harvey: I was the worst
Irma: No, I was the worst!
Maria: Hold my beer.

defrule

Just turned cat 5.

josip

defrule wrote: »

Just turned cat 5.

What was the last hurricane that strengthened that quickly?

BumperD

Hard to recall a season as catastrophic for the islands as '17 is gearing up to be.

BumperD

Direct hit on Dominica right now. God help them

BumperD

Tropical Storm Erika killed 31 here in 2015 so a direct hit from a hurricane is really bad news. Eye wall over centre of island right now

dfx-

Dropped 38mb to 924mb in 12 hours at landfall supposedly.

Kermit.de.frog

Explosive cyclogenesis is not unusual. We are still in and around peak season in the Tropics.

pad199207

Shocking strengthening by Maria before landfall in Dominica as a Cat 5.
A catastrophe likely on that island I'd say.

Latest reports show she has weakened somewhat with pressure up to 946mb as she passed over the island.

She's not done yet

Gaoth Laidir

I think they got a bit carried away in this TAF for the airport on Dominica. 300 knots sustained...

TAF TDPD 181700Z 1818/1918 08020KT 7000 SHRA SCT010CB BKN016
TEMPO 1818/1821 08025G50KT 2000 TSRA +SHRA BKN008CB BKN014
BECMG 1822/1823 300P99KT 0800 +TSRA +SHRA OVC008CB
BECMG 1909/1911 18040G65KT 5000 SHRA RA BKN014CB

lucernarian

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think they got a bit carried away in this TAF for the airport on Dominica. 300 knots sustained...

TAF TDPD 181700Z 1818/1918 08020KT 7000 SHRA SCT010CB BKN016
TEMPO 1818/1821 08025G50KT 2000 TSRA +SHRA BKN008CB BKN014
BECMG 1822/1823 300P99KT 0800 +TSRA +SHRA OVC008CB
BECMG 1909/1911 18040G65KT 5000 SHRA RA BKN014CB

What is the 300P? Just a typo or of meteorological significance?

Rikand

josip wrote: »

What was the last hurricane that strengthened that quickly?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorological_history_of_Hurricane_Wilma

Wilma dropped 100 mb pressure in just over a day

Rikand

Maria's change in direction upon hitting Dominica

https://mobile.twitter.com/pppapin/status/910023015743852544/photo/1

Gaoth Laidir

Maria is approaching Buoy 42060 now and may pass right over it. One to keep an eye on

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42060

Akrasia

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Harvey: I was the worst
Irma: No, I was the worst!
Maria: Hold my beer.

They're 3 very different storms though, how do we compare them. Harvey was big and slow moving and got stuck in the gulf of mexico but didn't have particularly powerful winds with max sustained winds of about 130mph

Irma was huge and fast moving with very powerful winds about (185mph max sustained) until it got to Cuba when it lost a lot of power

Maria seems to be small and slow moving with very fast winds currently topping at about 160mph, but with the potential to increase before the worst is over. It's described as having a pinhole eye, which means that the highest winds are concentrated over a much smaller area than a larger hurricane like IRMA

Irma looks like the most powerful of the 3 storms, simply because it was so huge and the overall energy it contained is mind boggling, but popular records for hurricanes tend to only focus on the max sustained winds and the amount of damage caused in dollars.

Meteorite58

NHC summary.

And on Maria marches. Cat 5 , sustained winds near 140 kts, central pressure 927 mb The centre of the hurricane is forecast to pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Weds.after that maria is forecast to weaken due to upper winds being less favourable and partially due to the large circulation of Jose off the U.S East coast.

Maria is forecast to be about 135 -140 kt when it makes landfall in Puerto Rico.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands
today and the core of the hurricane is expected to move near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. Everyone
in these areas should follow advice from local officials to avoid
life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 16.3N 63.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 17.0N 64.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 18.0N 65.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 18.8N 67.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 19.6N 68.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 21.5N 70.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 24.5N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 27.5N 72.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Samaris

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Maria is approaching Buoy 42060 now and may pass right over it. One to keep an eye on

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42060

Have a look at it now - it's been pulled loose and is floating around elsewhere, still transmitting. Went adrift sometime around 1400Z (in case the notification is gone later)