Fine Gael MEP Brian Hayes urges grand coalition with Fine Fail

For Reals wrote: »

Whatever about Dev, they've enough recent examples to warrant not supporting them. As to the option of Fine Gael or Fianna Fail, it just sends us in circles as a country.

Circles of repeated economic growth and prosperity with the occasional interruption?

blanch152 wrote: »

Do you have an example of a successful democracy that operates like that?

The only one I can think of that operates in such a way is the US, the country that invented the term pork-barrel politics and is one of the most divided in the world.

The UK, FFS! Parties in the UK face backbench revolts on a regular basis and lose votes because of their own dissenting members. They only use the strictest form of whip - the three-line AKA "vote with the leadership or we'll punish you" on rare occasions, and even that doesn't necessarily carry the automatic penalty of expulsion from the party.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whip_(politics)#United_Kingdom

In the sense of 'voting instructions', there are three categories of whip in British politics that are issued on particular business. An expressed instruction on how to vote could constitute a breach of parliamentary privilege, so the party's wishes are expressed unequivocally but indirectly. These whips are issued to MPs in the form of a letter outlining the parliamentary schedule, with a sentence such as "Your attendance is absolutely essential" next to each debate in which there will be a vote, underlined one, two or three times according to the severity of the whip:

A single-line whip is a guide to what the party's policy would indicate, and notification of when the vote is expected to take place; this is non-binding for attendance or voting.
A two-line whip, sometimes known as a double-line whip, is an instruction to attend and vote; partially binding for voting, attendance required unless prior permission given by the whip.
A three-line whip is a strict instruction to attend and vote, breach of which would normally have serious consequences. Permission not to attend may be given by the whip, but a serious reason is needed. Breach of a three-line whip can lead to expulsion from the parliamentary political group in extreme circumstances and may lead to expulsion from the party. Consequently, three-line whips are generally only issued on key issues, such as votes of confidence and supply. The nature of three-line whips and the potential punishments for revolt vary dramatically among parties and legislatures. Disobeying a three-line whip is a newsworthy event, indicating as it does a potential mutiny; an example was the decision on 10 July 2012 by 91 Conservative MPs to vote against Prime Minister David Cameron on the issue of reform of the House of Lords.

Emphasis mine.

In Ireland, the major parties use such a whip for EVERY SINGLE DAIL VOTE and it carries the automatic penalty of expulsion every single time. It's utterly draconian and results in the parliament not being able to carry out its primary function, which is to hold the cabinet accountable and challenge it when its policies are badly thought out or totally unpalatable to the public.

In Ireland, bizarrely, the Seanad seems to have more power to stop a cabinet sponsored bill than the Dail, through filibusters. Is that not a completely mad situation to be in? The concept of a minority government is a breath of fresh air because for five long years, FG got literally every bill it wanted passed into law, and as we saw on the abortion vote which spawned the Renua party, harshly punished any of its members who didn't comply.

This is NOT the international norm. In most democracies, such strict whips are used only for confidence issues, budgetary issues, sometimes national security issues, etc. Not on every last bill from pub licensing hours to farming regulations.

Rick Shaw wrote: »

Martin won’t rule out Fine Gael coalition It's all probably theatrical I know, but never say never.

Would be interesting. Maybe a stepping stone on the way to a merger. Unlikely still but as you say never say never.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

There seems to be a general acceptance that if FF is the largest party after the next GE, FG will reciprocate the current arrangement, and probably, if true to form, work it a lit more constructively than FF are currently doing.

It's if FG comes out on top again, though, that things get interesting. Would FF meekly embrace a renewal of the 'confidence and supply' deal? But would going into coalition with FF as a junior partner be any more appealing?

If, then, FF refuse any sort of deal with FG, the only option on current numbers is for either of those parties to deal with SF. I think we can rule out FG/SF, given the vast gulf between the two, but FF/SF doesn't seem any more feasible as things stand. Martin is seemingly ruling out coalition with Sf but leaving the door open to a C&S arrangement with them. However, Mary Lou has apparently ruled this out.

So it's hard to see how we would get a government in those circumstances. Perhaps Martin swallows his pride and accepts that Brian Hayes's grand coalition is the least bad of a range of unpalatable options?

Would Martin survive if FG come out on top. FF strikes me as a riven party ATM.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I think the way these things work that he would be given the opportunity to propose a course of action vis-a-vis government formation, and if the party rejected that course, via a special ard fheis or whatever the mechanism is, then he would be forced out.

FF won't stay intact for another C&S government. SF are sitting pretty to get a proper coalition. There have been overtures from others.
If they get the - a proper coalition, I think it will be a game changer in Irish politics.
Will they hold out for that? Maybe with Adams at the helm, wouldn't be so sure of the younger members.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I wonder could the divisions within FF over coalition with SF spill out into the open before the next GE? If it was any other party it would be likely, but FFers are so focused on the main chance, even those prepared to treat with SF know it is best to keep quiet about it until after the election, for fear of scaring off middle class voters...

Middle class (whatever they are in Ireland, Leo doesn't seem to know ) voters haven't had a problem with Labour, the Greens, the PD's or an assortment of Independents in government, I am not convinced they would have a problem with SF in government.
The vocal objections seem to be coming from the trad governing parties. The electorate have been saying FF and FG are two sides of the same coin for quite a while now.

blanch152 wrote: »

That is a strange oxymoron.

On the one hand, you say that the middle class voters wouldn't have a problem with SF in government, but on the other you say that the objections come from the traditional governing parties, who between them have nearly 60% in the current polls, and who are overwhemingly supported by the middle class.

Are you saying that FF and FG voters are not middle class?

Or are you saying that FF and FG voters vote for FG and FF even though they want SF in government?

Not really clear to me.

I think his argument is that fear and loathing of SF is coming from within the traditional parties themselves rather than their voters. FF and FG are trapped in this 'arms race' where neither can be seen to be a scintilla softer on SF for fear of scaring 'middle Ireland' into the arms of the other one. Francie's argument is that the parties are overstating this fear but I'm not sure about that...

blanch152 wrote: »

That is a strange oxymoron.

On the one hand, you say that the middle class voters wouldn't have a problem with SF in government, but on the other you say that the objections come from the traditional governing parties, who between them have nearly 60% in the current polls, and who are overwhemingly supported by the middle class.

Are you saying that FF and FG voters are not middle class?

Or are you saying that FF and FG voters vote for FG and FF even though they want SF in government?

Not really clear to me.

Are you sure you know the difference between a voter and a political party?
Middle class voters haven't had problem with a variety of coalitions and they don't vote 'overwhelmingly' for any of the minor parties either.
I don't see the fear among the electorate. I think they would have no real issue with it tbh.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well if FF and FG maintain their current positions of no coalition with SF under any circumstances, it is ultimately a moot point how their voters feel about such a coalition. As long as FF and FG together have a majority of seats, they will always come to some arrangement with each other, however unenthusiastically, in preference to a deal with SF.

Positions are softening. I would imagine it will be down to SF to take their pick soon.
As we seen with Theresa May, politicians can cast aside previous principles at the drop of a hat if necessary for power.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

As I said, barring a political earthquake, FF and FG will still have a majority of seats between them after the next election. If Sinn Fein get into government in that scenario, it won't be because it's, strictly speaking, 'necessary', but because a sufficient number of FF TDs prefer a deal with SF over one with FG to the point where they will overthrow their leader to bring it about. Not inconceivable, but I find it hard to envisage.

I see things like this as deputy's putting ideas out there and journalists running with it.
The deputy's are looking to see if there is any reaction that might be negative. I honestly don't think a coalition with SF is too far away.
'Tis only politics after all.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/fianna-f%C3%A1il-frontbench-tds-are-open-to-coalition-with-sinn-f%C3%A9in-1.3184113

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I see things like this as deputy's putting ideas out there and journalists running with it.
The deputy's are looking to see if there is any reaction that might be negative. I honestly don't think a coalition with SF is too far away.
'Tis only politics after all.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/fianna-f%C3%A1il-frontbench-tds-are-open-to-coalition-with-sinn-f%C3%A9in-1.3184113

If FF went into coalition with SF, FG would be rubbing their hands in glee, and vice versa.

The old saying that it you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas would be their belief.

blanch152 wrote: »

If FF went into coalition with SF, FG would be rubbing their hands in glee, and vice versa.

The old saying that it you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas would be their belief.

There is nothing to suggest that in reality.
FF and FG swap power anyway. Would be no different.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I think the hand-rubbing would come if FF announced before the election that they were open to a coalition with SF, FG could base their entire campaign on scaremongering. I don't believe the reality of an FF-SF coalition would prove nearly so toxic to 'middle Ireland', especially SF under Mary Lou, in fact it could well deliver the kind of populist soft-left policies that I believe are favoured by a majority of the Irish people...

FG couldn't get an overall majority after FF destroyed the country and brought years of austerity on to the heads of middle Ireland. FF are now back to full tilt jostling for power and effectively running the country.
It is just fanciful nonsense to suggest that either party would capitlise greatly if the other went into a coalition with SF.
I think it is just part of the biased fantasies of some. Middle Ireland copes quite well if SF in county councils and as TD's (they are not exactly stonng them or spitting on them )
People may not like it, in the way they wouldn't like a coalition with independents but that is the height of it as far as I can see.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG couldn't get an overall majority after FF destroyed the country and brought years of austerity on to the heads of middle Ireland. FF are now back to full tilt jostling for power and effectively running the country.
It is just fanciful nonsense to suggest that either party would capitlise greatly if the other went into a coalition with SF.
I think it is just part of the biased fantasies of some. Middle Ireland copes quite well if SF in county councils and as TD's (they are not exactly stonng them or spitting on them )
People may not like it, in the way they wouldn't like a coalition with independents but that is the height of it as far as I can see.

So do you think SF will be in government after the next election? Supposing the numbers come back roughly where they are now, i.e, 1. FG, 2. FF, 3. SF, and a government can only be formed with at least the tacit support of two of the three. If push comes to shove, do you think FF will opt for a deal with SF over another one with FG?

Here's another suggested format for an FG/FF government:

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/rotating-power-would-suit-fg-and-ff-456840.html