Fine Gael MEP Brian Hayes urges grand coalition with Fine Fail

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

So do you think SF will be in government after the next election? Supposing the numbers come back roughly where they are now, i.e, 1. FG, 2. FF, 3. SF, and a government can only be formed with at least the tacit support of two of the three. If push comes to shove, do you think FF will opt for a deal with SF over another one with FG?

I doubt many in FF would countenance the thought of a deal with a party if the likes of Adams and Ferris were still at its forefront. If SF got rid of those with such obvious links to serious and violent crime, and the likes of Mary Lou who have very blotted copybooks as she stood by Adams as he stammered and bluffed his way through questions about the Liam Adams abuse case, perhaps it could be tolerated.

Loafing Oaf

Deleted User wrote: »

I doubt many in FF would countenance the thought of a deal with a party if the likes of Adams and Ferris were still at its forefront. If SF got rid of those with such obvious links to serious and violent crime, and the likes of Mary Lou who have very blotted copybooks as she stood by Adams as he stammered and bluffed his way through questions about the Liam Adams abuse case, perhaps it could be tolerated.

FF's current position is to rule out coalition with SF in all circumstances. Martin will no doubt be pressed during the campaign on whether that holds if SF change their leader, economic policies etc. Adams is apparently set on leading SF into the next election and has given no indication of any plans to step down after that, so it would be very tricky and politically risky for Martin to start qualifying his anti-SF pledge before the election on the basis of something SF might do after it.

For Reals

It's a matter of time before SF rivals FF/FG on a regular basis, (not just the semi-regular basis of when FF/FG rip off/ruin the country). The power of the scaremongering will lessen as the years pass. While we'll always have the most recent FF/FG recession/scandal to look to.

Loafing Oaf

For Reals wrote: »

It's a matter of time before SF rivals FF/FG on a regular basis, (not just the semi-regular basis of when FF/FG rip off/ruin the country). The power of the scaremongering will lessen as the years pass. While we'll always have the most recent FF/FG recession/scandal to look to.

I have no doubt that's the long-term trend. especially if FF and FG continue this charade of "governing in partnership but not in coalition, as that Michael D'Arcy interview linked above suggests they will. They're effectively goading the electorate into voting in a non-FF/FG majority...

For Reals

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I have no doubt that's the long-term trend. especially if FF and FG continue this charade of "governing in partnership but not in coalition, as that Michael D'Arcy interview linked above suggests they will. They're effectively goading the electorate into voting in a non-FF/FG majority...

One can but hope.

FrancieBrady

For Reals wrote: »

One can but hope.

They know if SF get into government and don't do any worse than they have that it spells the end for one or other of them.
That is what is really behind the current stalemate, they are paralysing each other.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-frontbencher-favours-coalition-after-next-election-1.3197010

SF TD seeking to woo FF and FG as potential coalition partners. Or is he? Would you really be using language like this if that was what you were doing:

“The question the media are not asking is why Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael won’t talk to us,” he said.

I suspect SF have accepted, given Micheal Martin's stance, that there will be another FF/FG deal after the next election, and that this is about positioning the party for the one after that, showing 'middle Ireland' that they are pragmatists, willing to cut deals with the establishment parties etc.

blanch152

For Reals wrote: »

It's a matter of time before SF rivals FF/FG on a regular basis, (not just the semi-regular basis of when FF/FG rip off/ruin the country). The power of the scaremongering will lessen as the years pass. While we'll always have the most recent FF/FG recession/scandal to look to.

I very much doubt it. A whiff that FF might consider SF as a coalition partner would cost them 10% in the polls.

There are just too many people who remember what SF stood for and what many of its members supported.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I very much doubt it. A whiff that FF might consider SF as a coalition partner would cost them 10% in the polls.

There are just too many people who remember what SF stood for and what many of its members supported.

You are just speculating from a biased position here. FF are largely held responsible for wrecking the country but are effectively jointly running it.

There is nothing I see that suggests a 10% slide. What are you basing this on?
SF would be more likely to suffer hitching themselves to FF.

Loafing Oaf

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF would be more likely to suffer hitching themselves to FF.

This has (invariably?) been the experience of smaller parties in coalition with FF and FG. Which is partly why I see Cullinane's comments as positioning/shape-throwing by SF rather than a sign that they are really looking to do a deal with FF or FG after this election. They are playing a long game, aiming to be the larger party in coalition with FF and ultimately lead a broad left-wing coalition not involving FF or FG.

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

They are playing a long game, aiming to be the larger party in coalition with FF and ultimately lead a broad left-wing coalition not involving FF or FG.

This broad left wing coalition thing they speak of, it aint going to happen and they know it.

After all the hardship of the past few years FF and FG still hold over half the dail seats combined. Their isnt a large enough left wing vote to put it simply.

Plus the left wing parties will not work together, they hate each other.


Most importantly, waiting around to go into government for years just to improve the size of your party is doing nothing for the people who vote for you and you claim to care about.

Loafing Oaf

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

This broad left wing coalition thing they speak of, it aint going to happen and they know it.

After all the hardship of the past few years FF and FG still hold over half the dail seats combined. Their isnt a large enough left wing vote to put it simply.
.

Their assumption seems to be that if FF and FG can be forced into coalition together, the hoped-for realignment of Irish politics will finally happen. The thinking is that 'naturally' left-leaning types who have historically voted for FG or (particularly) FF will finally come to see that the two parties are much of a muchness and in the following election will gravitate en masse to SF and other left parties.

If the 'United Left Alliance' still isn't on after that then the fallback is they go into coalition with FF as the larger party.

Hermy

Surely if FF and FG amalgamate they remove any opposition and can do what they like?

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I think the hand-rubbing would come if FF announced before the election that they were open to a coalition with SF, FG could base their entire campaign on scaremongering.

And they're off:

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/ff-voters-are-alarmed-by-talk-of-sf-deal-36074757.html

I hadn't expected FG to strike up this tune this far out from the election, but I suppose wheeling a never-heard-of-him junior minister to do it means it won't feel like the entire part has been singing nothing else for a year by the time the election rolls around.

When I saw the headline I thought for a moment it was an FFer hitting back at his soft on SF colleagues; it's good of Deputy O'Donovan to show such concern for the "ordinary, decent Fianna Fáil voters.":P

FrancieBrady

Stalking horse...trying to see how much controversy it causes, if it gets as far as the Joe Duffy show then there wont be a FG-SF coalition for a while.

Loafing Oaf

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/leo-varadkar-rules-out-coalition-with-ff-after-2018-election-804494.html

So Leo rejects Brian's big idea...or does he?

Mr Varadkar has said such a scenario is “not preferable” and should be avoided.

“While others in the party like Brian Hayes have publicly been pushing the grand coalition option, Leo is definitely not a supporter of this,” one senior minister said. “He has made it known such a deal would be a nightmare.

Looks like the Examiner subeditor (if papers still have them:P) is the one doing the 'ruling out'...

Loafing Oaf

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/martin-rules-out-coalition-with-sinn-f%C3%A9in-or-fine-gael-1.3255588

Fianna Fáil will not enter a coalition Government with Sinn Féin or Fine Gael, party leader Micheál Martin has said...
Later on Friday, the party will debate a motion ruling out a coalition government with Sinn Féin. Mr Martin said he would be supporting it and would be ruling out a confidence-and-supply deal with the party too.

Assuming he stands by all that, MM has certainly painted himself into a very tight corner if FF is again second-largest party behind FG. Only option for government formation I can see in that case is a reprise of the current unsatisfactory arrangement...