July 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

First, to answer two questions above ...

(a) no clickbait intended, but we would be lost without that website (for this contest anyway) ...

(b) penalties are assessed every 3h or portion (I have a policy of 5 min grace period) so for example if you are 13 hours late, that's 12 plus a portion and therefore five points as you thought.

This is a preliminary table of forecasts, Con Sensus may be reset if we have further entries. Please note that late forecasts are also subject to score limits on the fast-approaching bonus question (this is to protect the field against late changes in the forecast models more than a second punishment and you won't lose points unless you score high on the bonus anyway). Also, decimal precision beyond our scoring system is subject to rounding (I rounded one forecast of 103.5% to 104).

Welcome Gonzo, and good luck everyone ...


Table of forecasts July 2017


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Mull 3rd

Jpmarn ____ (-3) ___16.2 _ 28.5 _ 3.9 _ 130 _ 090 _____ 18.5*
Sunflower3 ________ 16.2 _ 27.5 _ 6.0 _ 095 _ 110 _____ 19.8
sdanseo ____ (-5) __ 16.1 _ 31.9 _ 4.0 _ 104 _ 110 _____ 21.1*
sryanbruen ________ 16.1 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 19.4
Rikand ____________16.0 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 18.5
Joe Public __ (-3) ___ 15.9 _ 29.9 _ 4.5 _ 110 _ 099 _____ 18.9*
Kindred Spirit ______ 15.9 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 110 _____ 17.2
Bsal ______________15.9 _ 26.4 _ 3.7 _ 115 _ 103 _____ 19.1
Dasa29 ___________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 100 _____ 21.0
mickger844posts ___ 15.8 _ 26.5 _ 3.9 _ 115 _ 090 _____ 20.6
Tae laidir __________15.7 _ 28.2 _ 4.4 _ 088 _ 094 _____ 16.8
waterways _________15.7 _ 27.5 _ 3.7 _ 111 _ 093 _____ 17.3

Con Sensus ________ 15.7 _ 28.0 _ 3.8 _ 110 _ 099 _____ 19.1

200motels _ (-7) ____15.7 _ 26.3 _ 3.7 _ 119 _ 091 _____ 21.3*
Rameire ___ (-2) ___ 15.6 _ 28.0 _ 3.5 _ 103 _ 085 _____ 17.4*
Gonzo ____________ 15.6 _ 27.8 _ 3.2 _ 118 _ 099 _____ 18.7
pauldry ___________ 15.6 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 101 _____ 20.4

Normal ____________15.5 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 19.8


MrSkinner _________ 15.5 _ 25.8 _ 3.6 _ 095 _ 099 _____ 20.6
DOCARCH _________ 15.3 _ 26.7 _ 3.8 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 18.6
M.T. Cranium _______15.3 _ 25.5 _ 3.5 _ 120 _ 090 _____ 20.1
John mac __________15.2 _ 29.5 _ 3.2 _ 098 _ 110 _____ 20.1
Dacogawa _________ 15.1 _ 26.4 _ 3.2 _ 131 _ 082 _____ 16.8

___________________________________________________________

* late entries (3 to 24h) subject to maximum score of 8/10 as well as overall score penalty.

Con Sensus is currently 11th ranked forecast of the 21 entries.

The group forecast appears to be a little warmer than average, somewhat wetter than normal, and average in terms of sunshine.

Okay, Mullingar confirmed at 16.9 C on 3rd, scoring will be in pairs (not counting Con or NormaL) with two exceptions forced by ties or reduced scores ... the most logical group of three would have given Rameire nine points but he's capped at eight anyway. Forecasts (and their scores) subject to that possibility were marked in the table with *.

I then clumped together the lowest scores at 2 since nobody went far off the target with this.

10 pts ... Tae laidir and Dacogawa (both 16.8)
9 pts ... Kindred Spirit (17.2) and waterways (17.3)
8 pts ... Rameire (17.4), Jpmarn and Rikand (both 18.5)
7 pts ... DOCARCH (18.6), Gonzo (18.7)
6 pts ... Joe Public (18.9), Bsal (19.1) also Con Sensus (19.1)
5 pts ... sryanbruen (19.4), Sunflower3 (19.8) also NormaL (19.8)
4 pts ... M.T. Cranium and John mac (both 20.1)
3 pts ... Pauldry (20.4), MrSkinner and mickger844posts (both 20.6)
2 pts ... Dasa29 (21.0), sdanseo (21.1) and 200motels (21.3)

New MAX of 22.7 (Shannon) and MIN of 3.1 (Markree) reported on Saturday 8th.

Report after two weeks ...

IMT on 14.7, the second week was rather cool at 14.6 which is 0.8 below normal. Expect this to rise to about 15.8 by end of third week.

PRC continues low at 55% now, with the second week at 49% (above normal at Malin Head so for most of the country below 40%). This may gain a little in the third week or stay about the same.

SUN now at 75% with this past week fairly average for most, dull at Valentia, and the overall mean 93.2% of normal. This may gain a bit with several sunny days in the forecast.

MAX is being upgraded today, several hourly reports of 25 C at 1400h and 1500h, might expect something around 27 from days ahead.

MIN is currently 3.0 and few signs of that being broken.

New MAX of 26.2 at Mountdillon on 18th. Closest to that is 200motels (26.3) with Bsal and Dacogawa at 26.4.

The IMT has moved up to 15.2 C and working backwards from that, the mean for the past four days would have been 16.9 to move it up (only) that far (I was expecting a bigger jump, must be that Claremorris stayed very close to earlier value). A mean of 18 would have moved it from 14.8 after 14th to about 15.4 now.

The mean temperature will be very mean for the next few days, the IMT will be fortunate to stay above 14.8 by Saturday at this rate. The last week of the month looks no better than average so bottom portion of the IMT table seems favoured at this point. And I would be surprised if the 26.4 MAX sees much action. PRC will get massive reinforcement.

After four weeks ...

IMT sits at 15.14 C with the fourth week at 15.7, which was 0.1 above the normal for the period. This will likely finish about where it is now, perhaps rounding to 15.1 from the lower side or maybe 15.0 C.

PRC has edged up to 114 per cent with this past week at 117% of normal. The guaranteed outcome (if no rain were to fall 29th-31st, some already has) from monthly data rather than my calculations is 106% which is slightly higher than my tracking (without Shannon it would be 101%). At any rate with the rain in the forecast this will probably finish around 115 per cent.

SUN did surprisingly well, now at 108.5% with the fourth week managing 143 per cent of normal. There is not a lot of sunshine in the forecast or today's apparent totals so this may slide down to about 103% at the final tally.

MAX still 26.2 and MIN 3.0.

I will post some provisional scores for your interest with the caveat that the PRC and SUN in particular could change by 2-3 points.

IMT limped in at 15.1 (from 15.06).

PRC added a bit more than estimated in last three days and finished at 122% of normal. This will fatten the scores of our leader (Dacogawa) as well as JPmarn, 200 motels, and MTC at the expense of most others (Gonzo will stay on 14 points).

(note that a large part of the population of Ireland had a drier July than normal, from Dublin around to Cork the values were closer to 80 per cent; Shannon at 203% inflated the average, Claremorris also rather wet).

SUN appears to have dropped as expected but will confirm from the MS due by mid-day tomorrow.