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July 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 27-06-2017 8:18pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for July, 2017. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.5 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during July.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during July (see above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during July.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during July.

    6. Bonus question. You'll have a chance to utilize actual forecasting skill on this one, what will be the maximum temperature on Monday 3rd at Mullingar?

    Enter by 0300h Saturday 1st of July, with penalties of 1 point every three hours late (or portion thereof), to 0300h Monday 3rd, then increasing to one further point every hour. On the bonus question, a maximum score of 8 will be available to anyone who is more than 3 hours late to 24 hours late, a maximum of 6 for anyone who is 24 to 48 hours late, and a maximum of 4 for anyone who enters before 1200h Monday, with no score given to even later entries than that.

    No editing of bonus forecasts allowed after deadline for on-time submissions. nor after first late posting. Other aspects can be edited late if you want to accept the time penalty (one edit, all scores penalized). (Nobody's ever tried this as far as I can recall).

    Good luck, here's my forecast that you can use as a template and guide to what not to predict sort of thing ...

    M.T. Cranium _____ 15.3 __ 25.5 __ 3.5 __ 120 __ 090 ___ 20.1

    also, Normal ______ 15.5 __ 27.5 __ 3.5 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 19.8


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,738 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____ 16.1 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 90 _ 110 __ 19.4

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,296 ✭✭✭pauldry


    pauldry____ 15.6_ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 100_ 101 __ 20.4

    Doing now or ill forget


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,780 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal______ 15.9 __ 26.4 __ 3.7 __ 115 __ 103 ___ 19.1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 196 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3______ 16.2 __ 27.5 __ 6.0 __ 95 __ 110 ___ 19.8


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 579 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 _____ 15.8 __ 28.5 __ 4.0 __ 110 __ 100 ___ 21


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo______ 15.6 __ 27.8 __ 3.2 __ 118 __ 99 ___ 18.7


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _____ 15.3 __ 26.7 __ 3.8 __ 105 __ 105 ___ 18.6


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _____ 15.7 __ 28.2 __ 4.4 __ 88 __ 94 ___ 16.8


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 382 ✭✭waterways


    waterways _____ 15.7 __ 27.5 __ 3.7 __ 111 __ 093 ___ 17.3


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 350 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 15.9 ___28.0 ___ 4.0 ___110 ___ 110 ___ 17.2


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,140 ✭✭✭John mac


    john mac ______ 15.2 __ 29.5 __ 3.2 __ 98 __ 110 ___ 20.1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,512 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Rikand ___ 16.0 ___ 29.0 ___ 4.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 18.5


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 400 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner.........15.5.......25.8°........3.6°.......95%........99%.......20.6°


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,483 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _____ 15.8 __ 26.5 __ 3.9 __ 115 __ 090 ___ 20.6


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,845 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa ______ 15.1 __ 26.4 __ 3.2 __ 131 __ 82 ___ 16.8

    Are you click-bating us to the Met.ie site M.T. ? :D :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,241 ✭✭✭rameire


    Rameire______15.6___28.0___3.5____103____85____17.4

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ______ 16.2 __ 28.5 __ 3.9__ 130__ 90 ___ 18.5


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public _____ 15.9 __ 29.9 __ 4.5 __ 110 __ 099 ___ 18.9


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,244 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    sdanseo______ 16.1 __ 31.9 __ 4.0 __ 103.5 __ 110 ___ 21.1

    Late, so I guess I'm -5 pts.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,604 ✭✭✭200motels


    200motels 15.7 __ 26.3 __ 3.7 __ 119 __ 91 ___ 21.3


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    First, to answer two questions above ...

    (a) no clickbait intended, but we would be lost without that website (for this contest anyway) ... :)

    (b) penalties are assessed every 3h or portion (I have a policy of 5 min grace period) so for example if you are 13 hours late, that's 12 plus a portion and therefore five points as you thought.

    This is a preliminary table of forecasts, Con Sensus may be reset if we have further entries. Please note that late forecasts are also subject to score limits on the fast-approaching bonus question (this is to protect the field against late changes in the forecast models more than a second punishment and you won't lose points unless you score high on the bonus anyway). Also, decimal precision beyond our scoring system is subject to rounding (I rounded one forecast of 103.5% to 104).

    Welcome Gonzo, and good luck everyone ...


    Table of forecasts July 2017


    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Mull 3rd

    Jpmarn ____ (-3) ___16.2 _ 28.5 _ 3.9 _ 130 _ 090 _____ 18.5*
    Sunflower3 ________ 16.2 _ 27.5 _ 6.0 _ 095 _ 110 _____ 19.8
    sdanseo ____ (-5) __ 16.1 _ 31.9 _ 4.0 _ 104 _ 110 _____ 21.1*
    sryanbruen ________ 16.1 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 19.4
    Rikand ____________16.0 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 18.5
    Joe Public __ (-3) ___ 15.9 _ 29.9 _ 4.5 _ 110 _ 099 _____ 18.9*
    Kindred Spirit ______ 15.9 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 110 _____ 17.2
    Bsal ______________15.9 _ 26.4 _ 3.7 _ 115 _ 103 _____ 19.1
    Dasa29 ___________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 100 _____ 21.0
    mickger844posts ___ 15.8 _ 26.5 _ 3.9 _ 115 _ 090 _____ 20.6
    Tae laidir __________15.7 _ 28.2 _ 4.4 _ 088 _ 094 _____ 16.8
    waterways _________15.7 _ 27.5 _ 3.7 _ 111 _ 093 _____ 17.3

    Con Sensus ________ 15.7 _ 28.0 _ 3.8 _ 110 _ 099 _____ 19.1

    200motels _ (-7) ____15.7 _ 26.3 _ 3.7 _ 119 _ 091 _____ 21.3*
    Rameire ___ (-2) ___ 15.6 _ 28.0 _ 3.5 _ 103 _ 085 _____ 17.4*
    Gonzo ____________ 15.6 _ 27.8 _ 3.2 _ 118 _ 099 _____ 18.7
    pauldry ___________ 15.6 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 101 _____ 20.4

    Normal ____________15.5 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 19.8


    MrSkinner _________ 15.5 _ 25.8 _ 3.6 _ 095 _ 099 _____ 20.6
    DOCARCH _________ 15.3 _ 26.7 _ 3.8 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 18.6
    M.T. Cranium _______15.3 _ 25.5 _ 3.5 _ 120 _ 090 _____ 20.1
    John mac __________15.2 _ 29.5 _ 3.2 _ 098 _ 110 _____ 20.1
    Dacogawa _________ 15.1 _ 26.4 _ 3.2 _ 131 _ 082 _____ 16.8

    ___________________________________________________________

    * late entries (3 to 24h) subject to maximum score of 8/10 as well as overall score penalty.

    Con Sensus is currently 11th ranked forecast of the 21 entries.

    The group forecast appears to be a little warmer than average, somewhat wetter than normal, and average in terms of sunshine.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,512 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    We were going for RealFeel on the bonus question, weren't we ? :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,296 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yep

    Warmer here than there today

    Itl be around 17c

    Thats a duckegg on my part


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Early book-keeping item, 4.2 C was the MIN at Mullingar on Saturday 1st.

    I was just looking at hourly obs and 17 C was the max for Mullingar today. We'll see what that means with more precision later. I think it means congrats Dacogawa, tae laidir, waterways and/or Kindred Spirit.

    Odd factoid, while five forecasts rounded off to 17, no forecasts round off to 18, we have two at 18.5.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Yesterdays Max at Mulllingar according to met.ie is 16.9c. Dacogowa got it almost right.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,296 ✭✭✭pauldry


    and strong tea:)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Okay, Mullingar confirmed at 16.9 C on 3rd, scoring will be in pairs (not counting Con or NormaL) with two exceptions forced by ties or reduced scores ... the most logical group of three would have given Rameire nine points but he's capped at eight anyway. Forecasts (and their scores) subject to that possibility were marked in the table with *.

    I then clumped together the lowest scores at 2 since nobody went far off the target with this.

    10 pts ... Tae laidir and Dacogawa (both 16.8)
    9 pts ... Kindred Spirit (17.2) and waterways (17.3)
    8 pts ... Rameire (17.4), Jpmarn and Rikand (both 18.5)
    7 pts ... DOCARCH (18.6), Gonzo (18.7)
    6 pts ... Joe Public (18.9), Bsal (19.1) also Con Sensus (19.1)
    5 pts ... sryanbruen (19.4), Sunflower3 (19.8) also NormaL (19.8)
    4 pts ... M.T. Cranium and John mac (both 20.1)
    3 pts ... Pauldry (20.4), MrSkinner and mickger844posts (both 20.6)
    2 pts ... Dasa29 (21.0), sdanseo (21.1) and 200motels (21.3)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Report after the first week ...

    IMT at 14.8 C which is 0.2 below normal for the week.

    PRC at 60% of normal, blend of nearly dry conditions south coast to wetter than average in north Connacht and west Ulster.

    SUN only 56.7% and very dull near west coast.

    MAX that I spotted was 22.6 at Phoenix Park on Thursday 6th. This could be edged out today.

    MIN appears to be 4.2 at Mullingar on 1st.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    New MAX of 22.7 (Shannon) and MIN of 3.1 (Markree) reported on Saturday 8th.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Markree Castle Sligo had a minimum temperature of just 3.0c yesterday according to met.ie


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Report after two weeks ...

    IMT on 14.7, the second week was rather cool at 14.6 which is 0.8 below normal. Expect this to rise to about 15.8 by end of third week.

    PRC continues low at 55% now, with the second week at 49% (above normal at Malin Head so for most of the country below 40%). This may gain a little in the third week or stay about the same.

    SUN now at 75% with this past week fairly average for most, dull at Valentia, and the overall mean 93.2% of normal. This may gain a bit with several sunny days in the forecast.

    MAX is being upgraded today, several hourly reports of 25 C at 1400h and 1500h, might expect something around 27 from days ahead.

    MIN is currently 3.0 and few signs of that being broken.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Oak Park 25.3 Max yesterday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    New MAX of 26.2 at Mountdillon on 18th. Closest to that is 200motels (26.3) with Bsal and Dacogawa at 26.4.

    The IMT has moved up to 15.2 C and working backwards from that, the mean for the past four days would have been 16.9 to move it up (only) that far (I was expecting a bigger jump, must be that Claremorris stayed very close to earlier value). A mean of 18 would have moved it from 14.8 after 14th to about 15.4 now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,845 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Thanks M.T.! (& thanks as always for the hard work)

    This month really has been all over the place, when you drop the way we did in the last 24 hours, there are no charts that are going to help you decide 480 hours ago how these two days will be never mind how this month will end. There are no charts now I'd trust to decide how this month will pan out... But still, you've got to love trying, and keep trying! :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The mean temperature will be very mean for the next few days, the IMT will be fortunate to stay above 14.8 by Saturday at this rate. The last week of the month looks no better than average so bottom portion of the IMT table seems favoured at this point. And I would be surprised if the 26.4 MAX sees much action. PRC will get massive reinforcement.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,512 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Not sure if its counted anywhere but possible future bonus question

    Number of lightning strikes recorded over Ireland

    Extra bonus for naming county\province which receive most strikes and date :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,296 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Or could do

    Will any met station record all its rain in one day?

    North may see best of weekend weather


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    We did that lightning question a few years ago. Counties were scaled by size so that it was a fair fight. Maybe we will do this for August then, if the pattern looks encouraging for lightning closer to the start of the month.

    I don't have any stats but would imagine that all of a month's rain on one day would be very rare and if it did happen it would be in a dry month, but maybe you meant could any station get a normal month's worth of rain in one day? That would also be somewhat unusual although we may give it a go today.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,735 ✭✭✭Rougies


    We did that lightning question a few years ago. Counties were scaled by size so that it was a fair fight. Maybe we will do this for August then, if the pattern looks encouraging for lightning closer to the start of the month.

    I don't have any stats but would imagine that all of a month's rain on one day would be very rare and if it did happen it would be in a dry month, but maybe you meant could any station get a normal month's worth of rain in one day? That would also be somewhat unusual although we may give it a go today.

    I presume he means average monthly total in one day which is indeed very rare. I'm not 100% sure but I think at least one of the three Dublin area stations achieved it in October 2011.

    http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/HeavyRain241011.pdf

    Some stations in the west will have impressive totals for this 24 hour period, but they have quite high monthly averages too. It would take something exceptional for it to occur.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,296 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes meant all the rain of a full month in a day besides the rain that falls on other days

    We almost did it in Sligo with Storm Desmond and some flash floods in Letterkenny and near Belmullet in previous years gave it a shot


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,738 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Rougies wrote: »
    I presume he means average monthly total in one day which is indeed very rare. I'm not 100% sure but I think at least one of the three Dublin area stations achieved it in October 2011.

    http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/HeavyRain241011.pdf

    Some stations in the west will have impressive totals for this 24 hour period, but they have quite high monthly averages too. It would take something exceptional for it to occur.

    11 June 1993 is a very notable one.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    An update after week three, which had a very warm start, a cool finish with heavy rainfalls.

    IMT went up as high as 15.2 during the week but is back down to 14.94 now, the week averaged 15.4 which is 0.3 below the average for this period.

    PRC has soared to 113 per cent of normal, as the third week (mostly the last two days) registered 229 per cent (Shannon 470 after nearly a month's worth in 48 hours).

    SUN is now at 97 per cent of normal, with the third week managing 140 per cent.

    MAX 26.2 and MIN 3.0 as reported above.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,845 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    I'm near on a few counts! I do expect that to fall away dramatically in the next 200 hours...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT stood at 15.18 C after 26th and will probably slide down to 15.1 after today.

    I don't see much potential for it to go either way from there.

    PRC and SUN will likely both be holding steady when the next report comes in. They are both fairly close to 100% at this point (PRC a bit higher but close to 100% if there is no further rain). It turned into a rather cool, wet month after such a dry start.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT sits at 15.14 C with the fourth week at 15.7, which was 0.1 above the normal for the period. This will likely finish about where it is now, perhaps rounding to 15.1 from the lower side or maybe 15.0 C.

    PRC has edged up to 114 per cent with this past week at 117% of normal. The guaranteed outcome (if no rain were to fall 29th-31st, some already has) from monthly data rather than my calculations is 106% which is slightly higher than my tracking (without Shannon it would be 101%). At any rate with the rain in the forecast this will probably finish around 115 per cent.

    SUN did surprisingly well, now at 108.5% with the fourth week managing 143 per cent of normal. There is not a lot of sunshine in the forecast or today's apparent totals so this may slide down to about 103% at the final tally.

    MAX still 26.2 and MIN 3.0.

    I will post some provisional scores for your interest with the caveat that the PRC and SUN in particular could change by 2-3 points.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Provisional scoring for July 2017

    See the table for the values being used to estimate scoring. While the bonus points are settled, and IMT can only change in lock-step for the field, everything else depends on final confirmations. Plus or minus five points would be a reasonable estimate of overall error in these scores. A final table will be posted on or about 2nd of August.

    FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus_____ TOTAL

    Estimated values ___ 15.1_26.2_3.0_115_103____ 16.9

    Dacogawa _________ 25 _ 19*_ 18 _ 10 _ 06 ____ 10 ________ 88
    Bsal ______________ 17 _ 19*_ 13 _ 15 _ 10 _____ 6 ________ 80
    DOCARCH _________ 23 _ 16*_ 12 _ 12 _ 10 _____ 7 ________ 80
    M.T. Cranium _______23 _ 14*_ 15 _ 13 _ 07 _____ 4 ________ 76
    Gonzo ____________ 20 _ 06*_ 18 _ 14 _ 09 _____ 7 ________ 74
    pauldry ___________ 20 _ 16*_ 15 _ 10 _ 10 _____ 3 ________ 74
    mickger844posts ____18 _ 18*_ 11 _ 15 _ 07 _____ 3 ________ 72
    MrSkinner _________ 21 _ 17*_ 14 _ 08 _ 09 _____ 3 ________ 72
    waterways _________19 _ 08*_ 13 _ 14 _ 08 _____ 9 ________ 71
    200motels _ (-7) ____19 _ 20*_ 13 _ 13 _ 08 _____ 2 __ 75-7 = 68

    Normal ____________21 _ 08*_ 15 _ 10 _ 09 _____ 5 ________ 68

    John mac __________24 __00 _ 18 _ 09 _ 09 _____ 4 ________ 64

    Con Sensus ________19 _ 04*_ 12 _ 13 _ 09 _____ 6 ________ 63

    Rameire ___ (-2) ___ 20 _ 04*_ 15 _ 11 _ 06 _____ 8 __ 64-2 = 62
    Kindred Spirit ______ 17 _ 04*_ 10 _ 13 _ 09 _____ 9 ________ 62
    Dasa29 ___________ 18 _ 02*_ 10 _ 13 _ 09 _____ 2 ________ 54
    Tae laidir __________19 _ 03*_ 06 _ 06 _ 08 ____ 10 ________ 52
    Jpmarn ____ (-3) ___14 _ 02*_ 11 _ 10 _ 07 _____ 8 __ 52-3 = 49
    Rikand ____________16 _ 01*_ 10 _ 07 _ 07 _____ 8 ________ 49
    sryanbruen ________ 15 _ 01*_ 10 _ 07 _ 09 _____ 5 ________ 47
    Joe Public __ (-3) ___ 17 _ 00 _ 05 _ 13 _ 09 _____ 6 __ 50-3 = 47
    Sunflower3 ________ 14 _ 08*_ 00 _ 08 _ 09 _____ 5 ________ 44
    sdanseo ____ (-5) ___15 _ 00 _ 10 _ 11 _ 09 _____ 2 __ 47-5 = 42
    __________________________________________________________

    * MAX scores adjusted slightly, modified minimum progression invoked as seven scores were zero but high score of 19/20 and lack of missing scores in upper half of progression required a modest boost so that some zero scores became 01 or 02, scores that were already 02 to 07 got a 1-2 point boost and all above 08 got one extra point.

    In general, the table of forecasts and the scoring table were close to inverted (Bsal was one notable exception) and most of the late forecasts failed to gain any advantage (the charts must have zigged when the actual trend zagged around the 2nd) so they dropped a bit further down the table than is often the case. Well done to Dacogawa assuming these scores don't change much, and also to Gonzo who managed to beat Con on the first try.

    Normal beat Con Sensus which is unusual; even so, the group forecast for the month was fairly accurate especially for PRC and SUN.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,140 ✭✭✭John mac


    i feel a temp of 29.5 coming tomorrow :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Well if it's in Connacht then I think we may have an idea how that happened. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT limped in at 15.1 (from 15.06).

    PRC added a bit more than estimated in last three days and finished at 122% of normal. This will fatten the scores of our leader (Dacogawa) as well as JPmarn, 200 motels, and MTC at the expense of most others (Gonzo will stay on 14 points).

    (note that a large part of the population of Ireland had a drier July than normal, from Dublin around to Cork the values were closer to 80 per cent; Shannon at 203% inflated the average, Claremorris also rather wet).

    SUN appears to have dropped as expected but will confirm from the MS due by mid-day tomorrow.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    NormaL beats ConSensus.
    Doesn't happen that often.


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