Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email Niamh on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)
New AMA with a US police officer (he's back!). You can ask your questions here

July 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 27-06-2017 9:18pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for July, 2017. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.5 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during July.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during July (see above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during July.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during July.

    6. Bonus question. You'll have a chance to utilize actual forecasting skill on this one, what will be the maximum temperature on Monday 3rd at Mullingar?

    Enter by 0300h Saturday 1st of July, with penalties of 1 point every three hours late (or portion thereof), to 0300h Monday 3rd, then increasing to one further point every hour. On the bonus question, a maximum score of 8 will be available to anyone who is more than 3 hours late to 24 hours late, a maximum of 6 for anyone who is 24 to 48 hours late, and a maximum of 4 for anyone who enters before 1200h Monday, with no score given to even later entries than that.

    No editing of bonus forecasts allowed after deadline for on-time submissions. nor after first late posting. Other aspects can be edited late if you want to accept the time penalty (one edit, all scores penalized). (Nobody's ever tried this as far as I can recall).

    Good luck, here's my forecast that you can use as a template and guide to what not to predict sort of thing ...

    M.T. Cranium _____ 15.3 __ 25.5 __ 3.5 __ 120 __ 090 ___ 20.1

    also, Normal ______ 15.5 __ 27.5 __ 3.5 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 19.8


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,557 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____ 16.1 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 90 _ 110 __ 19.4

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry____ 15.6_ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 100_ 101 __ 20.4

    Doing now or ill forget


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal______ 15.9 __ 26.4 __ 3.7 __ 115 __ 103 ___ 19.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3______ 16.2 __ 27.5 __ 6.0 __ 95 __ 110 ___ 19.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 _____ 15.8 __ 28.5 __ 4.0 __ 110 __ 100 ___ 21


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo______ 15.6 __ 27.8 __ 3.2 __ 118 __ 99 ___ 18.7


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _____ 15.3 __ 26.7 __ 3.8 __ 105 __ 105 ___ 18.6


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _____ 15.7 __ 28.2 __ 4.4 __ 88 __ 94 ___ 16.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _____ 15.7 __ 27.5 __ 3.7 __ 111 __ 093 ___ 17.3


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 15.9 ___28.0 ___ 4.0 ___110 ___ 110 ___ 17.2


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 4,996 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac ______ 15.2 __ 29.5 __ 3.2 __ 98 __ 110 ___ 20.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,563 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 16.0 ___ 29.0 ___ 4.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 18.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner.........15.5.......25.8°........3.6°.......95%........99%.......20.6°


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _____ 15.8 __ 26.5 __ 3.9 __ 115 __ 090 ___ 20.6


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ______ 15.1 __ 26.4 __ 3.2 __ 131 __ 82 ___ 16.8

    Are you click-bating us to the Met.ie site M.T. ? :D :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,760 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire______15.6___28.0___3.5____103____85____17.4


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ______ 16.2 __ 28.5 __ 3.9__ 130__ 90 ___ 18.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public _____ 15.9 __ 29.9 __ 4.5 __ 110 __ 099 ___ 18.9


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    sdanseo______ 16.1 __ 31.9 __ 4.0 __ 103.5 __ 110 ___ 21.1

    Late, so I guess I'm -5 pts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels 15.7 __ 26.3 __ 3.7 __ 119 __ 91 ___ 21.3


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    First, to answer two questions above ...

    (a) no clickbait intended, but we would be lost without that website (for this contest anyway) ... :)

    (b) penalties are assessed every 3h or portion (I have a policy of 5 min grace period) so for example if you are 13 hours late, that's 12 plus a portion and therefore five points as you thought.

    This is a preliminary table of forecasts, Con Sensus may be reset if we have further entries. Please note that late forecasts are also subject to score limits on the fast-approaching bonus question (this is to protect the field against late changes in the forecast models more than a second punishment and you won't lose points unless you score high on the bonus anyway). Also, decimal precision beyond our scoring system is subject to rounding (I rounded one forecast of 103.5% to 104).

    Welcome Gonzo, and good luck everyone ...


    Table of forecasts July 2017


    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Mull 3rd

    Jpmarn ____ (-3) ___16.2 _ 28.5 _ 3.9 _ 130 _ 090 _____ 18.5*
    Sunflower3 ________ 16.2 _ 27.5 _ 6.0 _ 095 _ 110 _____ 19.8
    sdanseo ____ (-5) __ 16.1 _ 31.9 _ 4.0 _ 104 _ 110 _____ 21.1*
    sryanbruen ________ 16.1 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 19.4
    Rikand ____________16.0 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 18.5
    Joe Public __ (-3) ___ 15.9 _ 29.9 _ 4.5 _ 110 _ 099 _____ 18.9*
    Kindred Spirit ______ 15.9 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 110 _____ 17.2
    Bsal ______________15.9 _ 26.4 _ 3.7 _ 115 _ 103 _____ 19.1
    Dasa29 ___________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 100 _____ 21.0
    mickger844posts ___ 15.8 _ 26.5 _ 3.9 _ 115 _ 090 _____ 20.6
    Tae laidir __________15.7 _ 28.2 _ 4.4 _ 088 _ 094 _____ 16.8
    waterways _________15.7 _ 27.5 _ 3.7 _ 111 _ 093 _____ 17.3

    Con Sensus ________ 15.7 _ 28.0 _ 3.8 _ 110 _ 099 _____ 19.1

    200motels _ (-7) ____15.7 _ 26.3 _ 3.7 _ 119 _ 091 _____ 21.3*
    Rameire ___ (-2) ___ 15.6 _ 28.0 _ 3.5 _ 103 _ 085 _____ 17.4*
    Gonzo ____________ 15.6 _ 27.8 _ 3.2 _ 118 _ 099 _____ 18.7
    pauldry ___________ 15.6 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 101 _____ 20.4

    Normal ____________15.5 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 19.8


    MrSkinner _________ 15.5 _ 25.8 _ 3.6 _ 095 _ 099 _____ 20.6
    DOCARCH _________ 15.3 _ 26.7 _ 3.8 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 18.6
    M.T. Cranium _______15.3 _ 25.5 _ 3.5 _ 120 _ 090 _____ 20.1
    John mac __________15.2 _ 29.5 _ 3.2 _ 098 _ 110 _____ 20.1
    Dacogawa _________ 15.1 _ 26.4 _ 3.2 _ 131 _ 082 _____ 16.8

    ___________________________________________________________

    * late entries (3 to 24h) subject to maximum score of 8/10 as well as overall score penalty.

    Con Sensus is currently 11th ranked forecast of the 21 entries.

    The group forecast appears to be a little warmer than average, somewhat wetter than normal, and average in terms of sunshine.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,563 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    We were going for RealFeel on the bonus question, weren't we ? :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yep

    Warmer here than there today

    Itl be around 17c

    Thats a duckegg on my part


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Early book-keeping item, 4.2 C was the MIN at Mullingar on Saturday 1st.

    I was just looking at hourly obs and 17 C was the max for Mullingar today. We'll see what that means with more precision later. I think it means congrats Dacogawa, tae laidir, waterways and/or Kindred Spirit.

    Odd factoid, while five forecasts rounded off to 17, no forecasts round off to 18, we have two at 18.5.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Yesterdays Max at Mulllingar according to met.ie is 16.9c. Dacogowa got it almost right.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    and strong tea:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Okay, Mullingar confirmed at 16.9 C on 3rd, scoring will be in pairs (not counting Con or NormaL) with two exceptions forced by ties or reduced scores ... the most logical group of three would have given Rameire nine points but he's capped at eight anyway. Forecasts (and their scores) subject to that possibility were marked in the table with *.

    I then clumped together the lowest scores at 2 since nobody went far off the target with this.

    10 pts ... Tae laidir and Dacogawa (both 16.8)
    9 pts ... Kindred Spirit (17.2) and waterways (17.3)
    8 pts ... Rameire (17.4), Jpmarn and Rikand (both 18.5)
    7 pts ... DOCARCH (18.6), Gonzo (18.7)
    6 pts ... Joe Public (18.9), Bsal (19.1) also Con Sensus (19.1)
    5 pts ... sryanbruen (19.4), Sunflower3 (19.8) also NormaL (19.8)
    4 pts ... M.T. Cranium and John mac (both 20.1)
    3 pts ... Pauldry (20.4), MrSkinner and mickger844posts (both 20.6)
    2 pts ... Dasa29 (21.0), sdanseo (21.1) and 200motels (21.3)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Report after the first week ...

    IMT at 14.8 C which is 0.2 below normal for the week.

    PRC at 60% of normal, blend of nearly dry conditions south coast to wetter than average in north Connacht and west Ulster.

    SUN only 56.7% and very dull near west coast.

    MAX that I spotted was 22.6 at Phoenix Park on Thursday 6th. This could be edged out today.

    MIN appears to be 4.2 at Mullingar on 1st.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    New MAX of 22.7 (Shannon) and MIN of 3.1 (Markree) reported on Saturday 8th.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Markree Castle Sligo had a minimum temperature of just 3.0c yesterday according to met.ie


Advertisement