July 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

First, to answer two questions above ...

(a) no clickbait intended, but we would be lost without that website (for this contest anyway) ...

(b) penalties are assessed every 3h or portion (I have a policy of 5 min grace period) so for example if you are 13 hours late, that's 12 plus a portion and therefore five points as you thought.

This is a preliminary table of forecasts, Con Sensus may be reset if we have further entries. Please note that late forecasts are also subject to score limits on the fast-approaching bonus question (this is to protect the field against late changes in the forecast models more than a second punishment and you won't lose points unless you score high on the bonus anyway). Also, decimal precision beyond our scoring system is subject to rounding (I rounded one forecast of 103.5% to 104).

Welcome Gonzo, and good luck everyone ...


Table of forecasts July 2017


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Mull 3rd

Jpmarn ____ (-3) ___16.2 _ 28.5 _ 3.9 _ 130 _ 090 _____ 18.5*
Sunflower3 ________ 16.2 _ 27.5 _ 6.0 _ 095 _ 110 _____ 19.8
sdanseo ____ (-5) __ 16.1 _ 31.9 _ 4.0 _ 104 _ 110 _____ 21.1*
sryanbruen ________ 16.1 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 19.4
Rikand ____________16.0 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 18.5
Joe Public __ (-3) ___ 15.9 _ 29.9 _ 4.5 _ 110 _ 099 _____ 18.9*
Kindred Spirit ______ 15.9 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 110 _____ 17.2
Bsal ______________15.9 _ 26.4 _ 3.7 _ 115 _ 103 _____ 19.1
Dasa29 ___________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 100 _____ 21.0
mickger844posts ___ 15.8 _ 26.5 _ 3.9 _ 115 _ 090 _____ 20.6
Tae laidir __________15.7 _ 28.2 _ 4.4 _ 088 _ 094 _____ 16.8
waterways _________15.7 _ 27.5 _ 3.7 _ 111 _ 093 _____ 17.3

Con Sensus ________ 15.7 _ 28.0 _ 3.8 _ 110 _ 099 _____ 19.1

200motels _ (-7) ____15.7 _ 26.3 _ 3.7 _ 119 _ 091 _____ 21.3*
Rameire ___ (-2) ___ 15.6 _ 28.0 _ 3.5 _ 103 _ 085 _____ 17.4*
Gonzo ____________ 15.6 _ 27.8 _ 3.2 _ 118 _ 099 _____ 18.7
pauldry ___________ 15.6 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 101 _____ 20.4

Normal ____________15.5 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 19.8


MrSkinner _________ 15.5 _ 25.8 _ 3.6 _ 095 _ 099 _____ 20.6
DOCARCH _________ 15.3 _ 26.7 _ 3.8 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 18.6
M.T. Cranium _______15.3 _ 25.5 _ 3.5 _ 120 _ 090 _____ 20.1
John mac __________15.2 _ 29.5 _ 3.2 _ 098 _ 110 _____ 20.1
Dacogawa _________ 15.1 _ 26.4 _ 3.2 _ 131 _ 082 _____ 16.8

___________________________________________________________

* late entries (3 to 24h) subject to maximum score of 8/10 as well as overall score penalty.

Con Sensus is currently 11th ranked forecast of the 21 entries.

The group forecast appears to be a little warmer than average, somewhat wetter than normal, and average in terms of sunshine.

Okay, Mullingar confirmed at 16.9 C on 3rd, scoring will be in pairs (not counting Con or NormaL) with two exceptions forced by ties or reduced scores ... the most logical group of three would have given Rameire nine points but he's capped at eight anyway. Forecasts (and their scores) subject to that possibility were marked in the table with *.

I then clumped together the lowest scores at 2 since nobody went far off the target with this.

10 pts ... Tae laidir and Dacogawa (both 16.8)
9 pts ... Kindred Spirit (17.2) and waterways (17.3)
8 pts ... Rameire (17.4), Jpmarn and Rikand (both 18.5)
7 pts ... DOCARCH (18.6), Gonzo (18.7)
6 pts ... Joe Public (18.9), Bsal (19.1) also Con Sensus (19.1)
5 pts ... sryanbruen (19.4), Sunflower3 (19.8) also NormaL (19.8)
4 pts ... M.T. Cranium and John mac (both 20.1)
3 pts ... Pauldry (20.4), MrSkinner and mickger844posts (both 20.6)
2 pts ... Dasa29 (21.0), sdanseo (21.1) and 200motels (21.3)

New MAX of 22.7 (Shannon) and MIN of 3.1 (Markree) reported on Saturday 8th.