Fight Time From 4am-McGregor vs Mayweather**MOD Warning in 1st Post**

I am more concerned and worried for Conor's health and safety should this be a real genuine fight, and I am not even a fan of Conor. Are you ardent fans not writing him to express your concern for his health? Straight up question..

Mellor wrote: »

Donald Trump wrote: »

Betting markets often just work off arbitrage. The broker just figures out how to make money.
Suppose 4 people put down 10 for mcG to win and 2 people puts down 10 for MW to win. Then if I'm the dealer I'll give 3:2 for MW and 1:4 for McG. I've taken 60 in bets
So if MW wins I pay out 2 X ( 15 + original 10 back) and keep 10 for myself
if McG wins I pay out 4 X (2.50 + 10) and keep 10 for myself
In other words, I don't care of the actual real likelihood, I just set the odds so that I can't lose!

You're forgetting one thing. You retrospectively change odds like in a tote.

Is your example. MW has been inflated to a silly price. Say you take 1 more bet on MW at 3/2, now your 70 in facing a 75 payout. So you cut him to evens. And take another 2 bets. Now you've taken in 90 facing a payout of 115. You cut MW further and get take another bet on Conor at evens.

How's the payout look now?"

Mayweather is the favourite because he is the favourite in reality. But I guarantee the books are taking way more money on Conor. Lots of people having a cheeky $10 for the lols adds up. Arbing helps to a degree. But a market like this is probably very unbalanced in bets placed.

It's much more likely that the bookies are laying off liability on the exchanges.

Of course. I just wanted to give a simple example. Maybe a lot of people are aware of it, but others might think the bookie only goes with his gut like the fella down the pub.
As you mentioned, bookies will have to hedge those risks by laying off with betting exchanges or other bookies. The point is that even if they think an event has say only a 1 in a 100 chance of winning (not this event, just general) but that if that happens that they would lose a huge amount of money and possibly bankrupt them, they will shorten the odds on that event so that more people take the other side, or at least so that they aren't exposed at a 100:1 payout for more money coming in.
This link explains how for a similarly one-sided betting, the bookies adjusted so that they weren't going to lose regardless of the outcome

Tyson vs. Douglas betting

(Although in that case the underdog won...but I'm not talking about the outcome, only how the bookies manipulate the odds so that they aren't exposed regardless of the result)

Sweet Science wrote: »

Ah i think thats a myth which has grown legs. Didnt embarrass him granted but was in control all fight.

Yes, but if you watch the fight there was no beatdowns for large parts....It was a very scrappy and messy fight most of the time.

As for the official scores, yes they were wide, but that is just rd by rd scores of 10-9. It doesn't tell the full story of the rds and how close or competitive they were.

Jimmy Bottlehead wrote: »

Good argument. I liked your reasoning in paragraph 2, where you outlined your points and backed them all up. Congrats. You truly are an polemicist extraordinare.

Now back to Posting For Grown-Ups:

Amateur wrestling is usually viewed as the toughest combat sport to compete in, due to the relentless grind, the weight cuts and the sport itself. Of course, that's up for debate, but in MMA most of the athletes will agree it's the art that they find the toughest to participate in.

There you go, Jimmy. Knock yourself out, if you so please.....

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=78509909

I used to watch a lot of boxing and have watched more MMA about 10 years ago, still love my boxing but only watch the big fights whereas I watch most UFC events and a couple of other organisations.


Conor price is way too low for his chances however thats standard in gambling the bookies edge. The only chance he has is if he ruffles his feathers in the early rounds and does something different in terms of stance and distance however that probably isn't enough either as Floyd is unreal defensively. 40 year old slowing down versus a pup as seen by many will enjoy the build up thats for sure and I will purchase assuming not priced too high here and considering the time I wouldn't imagine it would be extortionate.

Its not mma forum v boxing some lovers and haters need to chill a bit.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Hatton spent the early rounds chasing Mayweather and was tiring as the fight went on. Mayweather picked him off at distance and Hatton struggled the longer it went. But we all have our own opinions on it.

Regardless though Hatton was a really tough fighter and a great boxer. Conor doesnt have that boxing pedigree so anyone who think he will be able to land a big punch on Mayweather is deluding themselves.

Yes, but there was so many instances/exchanges where Cortez got involved incorrectly and did not allow the fight develop. It wasn't spots here and there, it was steady and consistent involvement and not allowing the fight to flow.

Cortez was poor that night, he wouldn't let Ricky get close shots off, he kept stepping in and breaking it up. It was frustrating to watch as I was a big Ricky fan.

Augeo wrote: »

Bookies edge is 10/15% generally

Conor needs to be 20's here to be approaching value.

Burial. wrote: »

Who's sanctioning this by the way? I recall one of the WBs saying they wanted no part of it.

NSAC although Conor got his boxing license in California.

Commissions don't care, they were competing with each other to get this fight.

Floyd's only fights in Vegas though so all his recent fights have been sanctioned by NSAC.

Bob Bennett was the one who had final say, he watched Conor train and spar before making a decision,

walshb wrote: »

Why does anyone believe that Floyd won't or can't hurt Conor? That has to be the biggest nonsense I have ever heard. Is Conor some superman that cannot be hurt? Is his head/chin/body made from steel? If Conor does get knocked out or stopped on his feet will that be still a case of him not getting hurt?

I know, Floyd isn't Julian Jackson, but he's not Paddy Barnes either, and this time he is preparing to land on a non boxer, which should make the task easier for hi, as well as allowing him to commit more to the shots.

You crazy man. Did you ever see Mayweather knock out Jose Aldo in 13 seconds?
McGregor can't be beaten. Not even by that fella that choked him
I've seen McGregor propel his fists in a punching manner towards opponents while in a MMA competition. Therefore he can beat anyone and everyone. Nobody can stop him.

(BTW, I am not a fan of MW. I think he's a cunt. But realistically this is just a farce. I'm just taking the piss at this stage which I think is what the event deserves. In some ways, we are contributing to the hype by even commenting on it so I might drop out now)

BTW, folks, the real fight on August 26 isn't Mayweather-McGregor, it's boxing thread vs. MMA thread....Who gets the most traffic....?

Deleted User wrote: »

Evens and 4/6 would be a fairly normal split, that's a good bit higher than 5%.

Where? In MMA and boxing is it?

Just a quick trawl of oddschecker and you can see the book on some upcoming boxing matches is around 5%.

Floyd is in to 1/6 ... 16.65 ROI too good to pass up but if betting here in Ireland probably best to hold fire and let the public money come in on McGregor.

In Vegas 90% of the money has been on Mayweather as per William Hill.