February 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 29-01-2017 6:39am #1

1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value is 5.3 C. (max 25 points)

2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during January. (max 20 points)

3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

6. For a BONUS question, predict the maximum temperature in Ireland on the 14th, and give a location. (max 10 points, 8 for the temperature, 2 for the location, 2 and 1 point superbonus points available).

Enter by the deadline of 0300h Wednesday 1st of February, after which penalties run at 1 point every 3h or portion late to 1800h 2nd (at this point the penalty stands at 15 points) then 1 point per hour after that.

Good luck!

sryanbruen · 29-01-2017 10:41am

sryanbruen __________ 6.6 _ 15.0_ -2.0 _ 140_ 90_ 12.0c Valentia Observatory

sunflower3 · 29-01-2017 7:48pm

Sunflower3 __________ 5.8 _ 14.5_ -3.4 _ 150_ 100_ 11.0c Claremorris

200motels · 29-01-2017 10:32pm

200motels_______________ 5.4__13.5__-4.5__129__88__7.4 Valentia

Bsal · 30-01-2017 12:13am

Bsal __________ 5.5 _ 14.0_ -4.0 _ 125_ 93_ 13.0c Valentia

sryanbruen · 31-01-2017 5:44pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

sryanbruen __________ 6.6 _ 15.0_ -2.0 _ 140_ 90_ 12.0c Valentia Observatory

EDIT: sryanbruen __________ 5.8 _ 15.0_ -5.0 _ 90_ 110_ 12.0c Valentia Observatory

Cooler, drier and sunnier than what I was anticipating.

dacogawa · 31-01-2017 6:23pm

Dacogawa__________ 5.1__13.9__-4.9__110__95__10.6 Valentia

kindredspirit · 31-01-2017 8:10pm

Kindred Spirit. ___ 6.3 ___14.7 ___ -4.8 ___ 120 ___ 100 ___ 11.5 Phoenix Park.

DOCARCH · 31-01-2017 8:11pm

DOCARCH __________ 5.8 _ 14.6_ -5.2 _ 85_ 105_ 11.1c Mace Head

Tae laidir · 31-01-2017 11:20pm

Tae laidir ______________ 5.5 _ 13.8 _ -4.5 _ 115 _ 112 ____ 8.5 _ Shannon

Joe Public · 31-01-2017 11:55pm

Joe Public ______4.9 _ 13.9 _ -5.9 _ 145 _ 80 ____ 11.9 _ Roches Point

John mac · 01-02-2017 12:05am

john mac_______________ 5.2__12.2__-5.3__107__92__8.3 shannon

Lumi · 01-02-2017 12:21am

Lumi ______ 5.6 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 115 _ 90 ____ 9.9 _ Shannon

mickger844posts · 01-02-2017 1:24am

mickger844posts __________ 5.8 _ 12.6_ -5.2 _ 89_ 110_ 9.1c Mace Head

Jpmarn · 01-02-2017 1:33am

Jpmarn __________ 6.1_ 13.6_ -5.9 _ 120_ 105_ 11.2c Valentia

dasa29 · 01-02-2017 1:36am

Dasa29 __________ 5.3 _ 13.5_ -3.0 _ 110_ 95_ 13.0c Mullingar

waterways · 01-02-2017 1:37am

waterways__________ 5.4__13.7__-6.3__118__93__8.0 Caherdaniel

mrskinner · 01-02-2017 1:38am

Skinner_____5.3____14.4____-5.1____125____100____11°Valentia

JCX BXC · 01-02-2017 1:42am

JCX BX__________ 6.4_ 15_ -3.0 _ 130_ 110_ 11.5c Valentia Observatory

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2017 2:10am

M.T. Cranium ________ 4.9 __ 13.8 __ --6.5 __ 135 __ 105 ___ 10.5 Malin Head

pauldry · 01-02-2017 3:11am

Pauldry ________ 5.8 __ 14.0__ -4.6 __ 124__ 100___ 12.6 Valencia[/QUOTE]

rameire · 01-02-2017 10:32am

Rameire_______________ 5.9__14.0__-3.5__102__92__9.4 Valentia

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2017 8:30pm

Table of forecasts for February 2017

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 14th _ loc'n

JCX BXC ____________6.4 _ 15.0 _ --3.0 _ 130 _ 110 ___ 11.5 __ Val
Kindred Spirit _______ 6.3 _ 14.7 _ --4.8 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ Ph Park
Jpmarn ____________ 6.1 _ 13.6 _ --5.9 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 11.2 __ Val
Rikand ____ (-6) ____ 6.0 _ 16.0 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 12.0 __ Sherkin
Rameire ___ (-3) ____ 5.9 _ 14.0 _ --3.5 _ 102 _ 092 ____ 9.4 __ Val
sryanbruen _________ 5.8 _ 15.0 _ --5.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 12.0 __ Val
DOCARCH __________ 5.8 _ 14.6 _ --5.2 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 11.1 __ Mace Hd
Sunflower3 _________ 5.8 _ 14.5 _ --3.4 _ 150 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ Clar
Pauldry ____________ 5.8 _ 14.0 _ --4.6 _ 124 _ 100 ___ 12.6 __ Val
mickger844posts_____ 5.8 _ 12.6 _ --5.2 _ 089 _ 110 ____ 9.1 __ Mace Hd
Lumi ______________ 5.6 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 9.9 __ Shan

Con Sensus _________5.6 _ 14.0 _ --5.0 _ 119 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ Val

Bsal _______________5.5 _ 14.0 _ --4.0 _ 125 _ 093 ___ 13.0 __ Val
Tae laidir ___________5.5 _ 13.8 _ --4.5 _ 115 _ 112 ____ 8.5 __ Shan
waterways__________ 5.4 _ 13.7 _ --6.3 _ 118 _ 093 ____ 8.0 __ Caherdaniel*
200motels__________ 5.4 _ 13.5 _ --4.5 _ 129 _ 088 ____ 7.4 __ Val

NormaL ____________ 5.3 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ ??

MrSkinner __________ 5.3 _ 14.4 _ --5.1 _ 125 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ Val
Dasa29 ____________ 5.3 _ 13.5 _ --3.0 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 13.0 __ Mull
john mac___________ 5.2 _ 12.2 _ --5.3 _ 107 _ 092 ____ 8.3 __ Shan
Dacogawa__________ 5.1 _ 13.9 _ --4.9 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 10.6 __ Val
Joe Public __________ 4.9 _ 13.9 _ --5.9 _ 145 _ 080 ___ 11.9 __ RochPt
M.T. Cranium _______ 4.9 _ 13.8 _ --6.5 _ 135 _ 105 ___ 10.5 __ Malin Hd
____________________________________________

* for this location I think Sherkin Island might be closest?

In general, a rather average sort of February, although rather wet, is foreseen and the expectation for warmest location is mostly in the southwest, Valentia got 9 of 21 votes, Shannon got 3, Sherkin now at 2 and Roches Point had 1, then away from the southwest, Mace Head had two supporters, and Mullingar, Claremorris, Malin Head and Phoenix Park had one each. The consensus will be adjusted if any other forecasts are entered.

Rikand · 01-02-2017 9:55pm

dammit forgot

Rikand _____ 6.0 ____ 16.0 _____ -6.0 _____ 90 _____ 110 _____ 12.0 - Sherkin Island

M.T. Cranium · 02-02-2017 10:24pm

12.5 on 1st at Valentia.

Euro says, how low can you go? Indications of -8 C potential inland east in 8-10 d. GFS more like -6.

M.T. Cranium · 05-02-2017 11:50am

That 12.5 was repeated at two stations on the 2nd.

You may see a low of -3.9 for Mullingar yesterday, that was probably at midnight because I saw -5 on the 0600h report from there. And I never looked at 0700h. So expect something fairly low to be reported for today.

Tae laidir · 06-02-2017 9:45am

Mullingar -5.6 confirmed.

Rikand · 06-02-2017 10:16pm

Tae laidir wrote: »

Mullingar -5.6 confirmed.

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pauldry · 06-02-2017 11:42pm

13.3c recorded max

Min could go lower the next week or so

M.T. Cranium · 08-02-2017 7:09pm

After the first week ...

IMT on 5.1 C which is 0.2 below normal.

PRC was 115% of normal.

SUN was 113.7% of normal.

MAX 13.3, MIN --5.6

IMT will probably dip below 4.0 at some point then recover a bit. PRC will fall off, SUN may stay about where it is now, MIN likely to fall.

pauldry · 14-02-2017 3:23pm

Shannon and Moorepark are leading the way on 13c so far

Can 14 on the 14th be reached?

February 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

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