February 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

Table of forecasts for February 2017


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 14th _ loc'n

JCX BXC ____________6.4 _ 15.0 _ --3.0 _ 130 _ 110 ___ 11.5 __ Val
Kindred Spirit _______ 6.3 _ 14.7 _ --4.8 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ Ph Park
Jpmarn ____________ 6.1 _ 13.6 _ --5.9 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 11.2 __ Val
Rikand ____ (-6) ____ 6.0 _ 16.0 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 12.0 __ Sherkin
Rameire ___ (-3) ____ 5.9 _ 14.0 _ --3.5 _ 102 _ 092 ____ 9.4 __ Val
sryanbruen _________ 5.8 _ 15.0 _ --5.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 12.0 __ Val
DOCARCH __________ 5.8 _ 14.6 _ --5.2 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 11.1 __ Mace Hd
Sunflower3 _________ 5.8 _ 14.5 _ --3.4 _ 150 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ Clar
Pauldry ____________ 5.8 _ 14.0 _ --4.6 _ 124 _ 100 ___ 12.6 __ Val
mickger844posts_____ 5.8 _ 12.6 _ --5.2 _ 089 _ 110 ____ 9.1 __ Mace Hd
Lumi ______________ 5.6 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 9.9 __ Shan

Con Sensus _________5.6 _ 14.0 _ --5.0 _ 119 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ Val

Bsal _______________5.5 _ 14.0 _ --4.0 _ 125 _ 093 ___ 13.0 __ Val
Tae laidir ___________5.5 _ 13.8 _ --4.5 _ 115 _ 112 ____ 8.5 __ Shan
waterways__________ 5.4 _ 13.7 _ --6.3 _ 118 _ 093 ____ 8.0 __ Caherdaniel*
200motels__________ 5.4 _ 13.5 _ --4.5 _ 129 _ 088 ____ 7.4 __ Val

NormaL ____________ 5.3 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ ??

MrSkinner __________ 5.3 _ 14.4 _ --5.1 _ 125 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ Val
Dasa29 ____________ 5.3 _ 13.5 _ --3.0 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 13.0 __ Mull
john mac___________ 5.2 _ 12.2 _ --5.3 _ 107 _ 092 ____ 8.3 __ Shan
Dacogawa__________ 5.1 _ 13.9 _ --4.9 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 10.6 __ Val
Joe Public __________ 4.9 _ 13.9 _ --5.9 _ 145 _ 080 ___ 11.9 __ RochPt
M.T. Cranium _______ 4.9 _ 13.8 _ --6.5 _ 135 _ 105 ___ 10.5 __ Malin Hd
____________________________________________

* for this location I think Sherkin Island might be closest?

In general, a rather average sort of February, although rather wet, is foreseen and the expectation for warmest location is mostly in the southwest, Valentia got 9 of 21 votes, Shannon got 3, Sherkin now at 2 and Roches Point had 1, then away from the southwest, Mace Head had two supporters, and Mullingar, Claremorris, Malin Head and Phoenix Park had one each. The consensus will be adjusted if any other forecasts are entered.

12.5 on 1st at Valentia.

Euro says, how low can you go? Indications of -8 C potential inland east in 8-10 d. GFS more like -6.

After the second week ...

IMT on 4.7 with the second week rather cold, 4.3 C which is 1.1 deg below average.

PRC now at 79% with the second week generally dry (apart from Dublin) at 42%.

SUN is now bang on normal (100.1%) with the second week at 86.5% (Valentia quite sunny at 154%).

MAX now 13.5 (Shannon, 14th) as mentioned above with regard to the bonus.

As Valentia came in third and Moore Park was not guessed, I thought it might be fair to tweak the scoring with seven points for the temperature and three for the location, giving three to the Shannon guesses and one point for Valentia.

Those getting seven points for the temperature portion will be Bsal and Dasa29 who were closest at 13.0, as well as Pauldry (12.6). Those at 11.9 to 12.0 will have six points, (Rikand, sryanbruen and Joe Public), then the next three (JCX BXC, Kindred Spirit, Jpmarn also NormaL) get five points, DOCARCH, sunflower3 and Mr Skinner at four along with Con Sensus, Dacogawa, M.T.Cranium and Lumi with three, Rameire, mickger844posts and Tae laidir with two and John mac, waterways and 200motels with the lowest three guesses sharing one point.

Three points for location are added on for Lumi (6), Tae laidir (5) and John mac (4) so nobody qualified for the two point superbonus, and one point will be added to all those who guessed Valentia (about half the field), with Bsal and Pauldry qualifying for one additional superbonus point. So that brings them to 9 points.

14.9 MAX at Roches Point (20th).

You'll do fine with your higher IMT.

Week three update, almost forgot (thanks to Doris) ...

IMT is already up to 6.2, with this past week at an average value of 9.4 C which is a full 3.8 above normal for the week. This may come down slightly by end of the month but not much if at all.

PRC before today was at 76% with the third week rather dry (69%) -- I estimate that this now stands at 83%, so the fourth week will need to be about 1.5 times normal to bring the month up to 100%.

SUN during the past week was a meagre 36.7% dragging the month down to 79% of normal. That may improve slightly or stay about the same in the rather turbulent period ahead. Turbulence at least breaks up some of the cloud.

Max and min have been discussed in previous posts. Stay safe.

The final values confirmed in the MS are:

IMT ..... 6.3 C

MAX ... 14.9 C

MIN .. --5.6 C

PRC .. 104%

SUN ... 80%

Scoring tables up within the hour, I hope.

Annual scoring 2017 and winter portion of four seasons 2016-17

Dec 2016 scores will be dropped from this table next month, they are here to fill out the winter totals.

rank/
__ FORECASTER ____ (Dec) __ JAN _ FEB ___ 2017 TOTAL ___ Winter Total (pts)

t01 pauldry _________ (68) ___ 74 __ 66 _____ 140 ________ 208 ___ 10
t01 Jpmarn _________ (60) ___ 70 __ 70 _____ 140 ________ 200 ____ 6

03 Kindred Spirit _____ (44) ___ 54 __ 78 _____ 132 ________ 176 ____ 1
04 Lumi ____________ (66) ___ 57 __ 72 _____ 129 ________ 195 ____ 5 (t)
05 mickger844posts ___(42) ___ 74 __ 54 _____ 128 ________ 170 ____ 1

06 Con Sensus _______(61) ___ 59 __ 66 _____ 125 ________ 186 ____ 3

06 Tae laidir _________(76) ___ 68 __ 57 _____ 125 ________ 201 ____ 7
07 DOCARCH ________(58) ___ 47 __ 73 _____ 120 ________ 178 ____ 2
t08 sryanbruen ______ (41) ___ 43 __ 76 _____ 119 ________ 160
t08 Rikand __________(53) ___ 54 __ 63 _____ 117 ________ 170 ____ 1
10 John mac ________ (46) ___ 58 __ 59 _____ 117 ________ 163
11 MrSkinner ________(79) ___ 50 __ 66 _____ 116 ________ 195 ____ 5 (t)
12 200motels ________(61) ___ 64 __ 51 _____ 115 ________ 176 ____ 1
13 Rameire _________ (56) ___ 57 __ 56 _____ 113 ________ 169

14 NormaL _________ (81) ___ 43 __ 68 _____ 111 ________ 192 ____ 3

14 Dacogawa ________(51) ___ 46 __ 62 _____ 108 ________ 159
15 waterways _______ (41) ___ 49 __ 58 _____ 107 ________ 148
15 Bsal ____________ (50) ___ 49 __ 58 _____ 107 ________ 157
17 Dasa29 __________(33) ___ 55 __ 49 _____ 104 ________ 137
18 M.T. Cranium _____ (62) ___ 53 __ 46 ______ 99 ________ 161
19 sunflower3 _______ (89) ___ 46 __ 48 ______ 94 ________ 183 ____ 3
20 Joe Public ________ (69) ___ 36 __ 57 ______ 93 ________ 162
21 JCX BXC _________ (--) ___ --- __ 60 ______ 60

=================================================

---

=================================================

(Four seasons, totals Dec - Feb are then awarded points, ten for top score and then seven for 2nd, six for 3rd etc, down to 1 point for each of 8th, 9th and 10th. Two were tied for 10th so there are in fact eleven people with points. If your seasonal score was below 170, no points for you.

As to the annual scoring, Pauldry and Jpmarn are setting the pace with an average of 70 for the first two months. Not too big a spread yet, everyone in with a chance, and remember, the main contest drops your two worst scores so if you've missed a month, keep playing and you still have one other score to drop even if you have that missed month.