February 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value is 5.3 C. (max 25 points)

2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during January. (max 20 points)

3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

6. For a BONUS question, predict the maximum temperature in Ireland on the 14th, and give a location. (max 10 points, 8 for the temperature, 2 for the location, 2 and 1 point superbonus points available).

Enter by the deadline of 0300h Wednesday 1st of February, after which penalties run at 1 point every 3h or portion late to 1800h 2nd (at this point the penalty stands at 15 points) then 1 point per hour after that.

Good luck!

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 6.6 _ 15.0_ -2.0 _ 140_ 90_ 12.0c Valentia Observatory

sunflower3

Sunflower3 __________ 5.8 _ 14.5_ -3.4 _ 150_ 100_ 11.0c Claremorris

200motels

200motels_______________ 5.4__13.5__-4.5__129__88__7.4 Valentia

Bsal

Bsal __________ 5.5 _ 14.0_ -4.0 _ 125_ 93_ 13.0c Valentia

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

sryanbruen __________ 6.6 _ 15.0_ -2.0 _ 140_ 90_ 12.0c Valentia Observatory

EDIT: sryanbruen __________ 5.8 _ 15.0_ -5.0 _ 90_ 110_ 12.0c Valentia Observatory

Cooler, drier and sunnier than what I was anticipating.

dacogawa

Dacogawa__________ 5.1__13.9__-4.9__110__95__10.6 Valentia

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit. ___ 6.3 ___14.7 ___ -4.8 ___ 120 ___ 100 ___ 11.5 Phoenix Park.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH __________ 5.8 _ 14.6_ -5.2 _ 85_ 105_ 11.1c Mace Head

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ______________ 5.5 _ 13.8 _ -4.5 _ 115 _ 112 ____ 8.5 _ Shannon

Joe Public

Joe Public ______4.9 _ 13.9 _ -5.9 _ 145 _ 80 ____ 11.9 _ Roches Point

John mac

john mac_______________ 5.2__12.2__-5.3__107__92__8.3 shannon

Lumi

Lumi ______ 5.6 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 115 _ 90 ____ 9.9 _ Shannon

mickger844posts

mickger844posts __________ 5.8 _ 12.6_ -5.2 _ 89_ 110_ 9.1c Mace Head

Jpmarn

Jpmarn __________ 6.1_ 13.6_ -5.9 _ 120_ 105_ 11.2c Valentia

dasa29

Dasa29 __________ 5.3 _ 13.5_ -3.0 _ 110_ 95_ 13.0c Mullingar

waterways

waterways__________ 5.4__13.7__-6.3__118__93__8.0 Caherdaniel

mrskinner

Skinner_____5.3____14.4____-5.1____125____100____11°Valentia

JCX BXC

JCX BX__________ 6.4_ 15_ -3.0 _ 130_ 110_ 11.5c Valentia Observatory

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ________ 4.9 __ 13.8 __ --6.5 __ 135 __ 105 ___ 10.5 Malin Head

pauldry

Pauldry ________ 5.8 __ 14.0__ -4.6 __ 124__ 100___ 12.6 Valencia[/QUOTE]

rameire

Rameire_______________ 5.9__14.0__-3.5__102__92__9.4 Valentia

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for February 2017


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 14th _ loc'n

JCX BXC ____________6.4 _ 15.0 _ --3.0 _ 130 _ 110 ___ 11.5 __ Val
Kindred Spirit _______ 6.3 _ 14.7 _ --4.8 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ Ph Park
Jpmarn ____________ 6.1 _ 13.6 _ --5.9 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 11.2 __ Val
Rikand ____ (-6) ____ 6.0 _ 16.0 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 12.0 __ Sherkin
Rameire ___ (-3) ____ 5.9 _ 14.0 _ --3.5 _ 102 _ 092 ____ 9.4 __ Val
sryanbruen _________ 5.8 _ 15.0 _ --5.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 12.0 __ Val
DOCARCH __________ 5.8 _ 14.6 _ --5.2 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 11.1 __ Mace Hd
Sunflower3 _________ 5.8 _ 14.5 _ --3.4 _ 150 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ Clar
Pauldry ____________ 5.8 _ 14.0 _ --4.6 _ 124 _ 100 ___ 12.6 __ Val
mickger844posts_____ 5.8 _ 12.6 _ --5.2 _ 089 _ 110 ____ 9.1 __ Mace Hd
Lumi ______________ 5.6 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 9.9 __ Shan

Con Sensus _________5.6 _ 14.0 _ --5.0 _ 119 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ Val

Bsal _______________5.5 _ 14.0 _ --4.0 _ 125 _ 093 ___ 13.0 __ Val
Tae laidir ___________5.5 _ 13.8 _ --4.5 _ 115 _ 112 ____ 8.5 __ Shan
waterways__________ 5.4 _ 13.7 _ --6.3 _ 118 _ 093 ____ 8.0 __ Caherdaniel*
200motels__________ 5.4 _ 13.5 _ --4.5 _ 129 _ 088 ____ 7.4 __ Val

NormaL ____________ 5.3 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ ??

MrSkinner __________ 5.3 _ 14.4 _ --5.1 _ 125 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ Val
Dasa29 ____________ 5.3 _ 13.5 _ --3.0 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 13.0 __ Mull
john mac___________ 5.2 _ 12.2 _ --5.3 _ 107 _ 092 ____ 8.3 __ Shan
Dacogawa__________ 5.1 _ 13.9 _ --4.9 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 10.6 __ Val
Joe Public __________ 4.9 _ 13.9 _ --5.9 _ 145 _ 080 ___ 11.9 __ RochPt
M.T. Cranium _______ 4.9 _ 13.8 _ --6.5 _ 135 _ 105 ___ 10.5 __ Malin Hd
____________________________________________

* for this location I think Sherkin Island might be closest?

In general, a rather average sort of February, although rather wet, is foreseen and the expectation for warmest location is mostly in the southwest, Valentia got 9 of 21 votes, Shannon got 3, Sherkin now at 2 and Roches Point had 1, then away from the southwest, Mace Head had two supporters, and Mullingar, Claremorris, Malin Head and Phoenix Park had one each. The consensus will be adjusted if any other forecasts are entered.

Rikand

dammit forgot

Rikand _____ 6.0 ____ 16.0 _____ -6.0 _____ 90 _____ 110 _____ 12.0 - Sherkin Island

M.T. Cranium

12.5 on 1st at Valentia.

Euro says, how low can you go? Indications of -8 C potential inland east in 8-10 d. GFS more like -6.

M.T. Cranium

That 12.5 was repeated at two stations on the 2nd.

You may see a low of -3.9 for Mullingar yesterday, that was probably at midnight because I saw -5 on the 0600h report from there. And I never looked at 0700h. So expect something fairly low to be reported for today.

Tae laidir

Mullingar -5.6 confirmed.

Rikand

Tae laidir wrote: »

Mullingar -5.6 confirmed.

pauldry

13.3c recorded max

Min could go lower the next week or so

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 5.1 C which is 0.2 below normal.

PRC was 115% of normal.

SUN was 113.7% of normal.

MAX 13.3, MIN --5.6

IMT will probably dip below 4.0 at some point then recover a bit. PRC will fall off, SUN may stay about where it is now, MIN likely to fall.

pauldry

Shannon and Moorepark are leading the way on 13c so far

Can 14 on the 14th be reached?

Jpmarn

Some answers to our bonus question. We had pleasant romantically high temperatures of 13.5 C at Shannon Airport. 12.9 Moorepark and 12.4 at Valentia. Most stations in the southern half of the country temperature made double figures at best but the failed in the northern half. Even in the Dublin area there were big difference in the highs there. Casement made 10.1c but Airport only made 7.8 with Phoenix Park a degree higher.

M.T. Cranium

After the second week ...

IMT on 4.7 with the second week rather cold, 4.3 C which is 1.1 deg below average.

PRC now at 79% with the second week generally dry (apart from Dublin) at 42%.

SUN is now bang on normal (100.1%) with the second week at 86.5% (Valentia quite sunny at 154%).

MAX now 13.5 (Shannon, 14th) as mentioned above with regard to the bonus.

As Valentia came in third and Moore Park was not guessed, I thought it might be fair to tweak the scoring with seven points for the temperature and three for the location, giving three to the Shannon guesses and one point for Valentia.

Those getting seven points for the temperature portion will be Bsal and Dasa29 who were closest at 13.0, as well as Pauldry (12.6). Those at 11.9 to 12.0 will have six points, (Rikand, sryanbruen and Joe Public), then the next three (JCX BXC, Kindred Spirit, Jpmarn also NormaL) get five points, DOCARCH, sunflower3 and Mr Skinner at four along with Con Sensus, Dacogawa, M.T.Cranium and Lumi with three, Rameire, mickger844posts and Tae laidir with two and John mac, waterways and 200motels with the lowest three guesses sharing one point.

Three points for location are added on for Lumi (6), Tae laidir (5) and John mac (4) so nobody qualified for the two point superbonus, and one point will be added to all those who guessed Valentia (about half the field), with Bsal and Pauldry qualifying for one additional superbonus point. So that brings them to 9 points.

M.T. Cranium

New MAX of 14.3 at Casement on Friday 17th.

JCX BXC

Looks like it'll be broken tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium

The 14.3 MAX was tied rather than broken, at Roches Point on Sunday 19th.

JCX BXC

Cork Airport reported 15c (rounded) today so I'd say the max has been broken.

M.T. Cranium

Yes, 14.5 confirmed at Cork, most other numbers not yet posted (as of 0500h, will check the full list around 0900h). Third week summary tomorrow. Looks like a rather bumpy ride to the finish line, but milder end of forecasts probably will do well.

I don't think rain or sunshine will be very far from average.

M.T. Cranium

14.9 MAX at Roches Point (20th).

Rikand

Another degree required to compensate me for my tardy entry

M.T. Cranium

You'll do fine with your higher IMT.

Week three update, almost forgot (thanks to Doris) ...

IMT is already up to 6.2, with this past week at an average value of 9.4 C which is a full 3.8 above normal for the week. This may come down slightly by end of the month but not much if at all.

PRC before today was at 76% with the third week rather dry (69%) -- I estimate that this now stands at 83%, so the fourth week will need to be about 1.5 times normal to bring the month up to 100%.

SUN during the past week was a meagre 36.7% dragging the month down to 79% of normal. That may improve slightly or stay about the same in the rather turbulent period ahead. Turbulence at least breaks up some of the cloud.

Max and min have been discussed in previous posts. Stay safe.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks and for the final February figures (to be confirmed with monthly summary tomorrow) ...

IMT finished on 6.3 C with the fourth week also on that value which was 0.4 above normal for the period. The month was more like 0.9 above normal.

PRC for the week was 181% which gives an estimate of 102% of normal for the month.

SUN for the week was 85.2% and the monthly estimate is 81% of normal.

I will confirm all values tomorrow and post some scoring. March contest in a separate thread (if you haven't already entered).

M.T. Cranium

The final values confirmed in the MS are:

IMT ..... 6.3 C

MAX ... 14.9 C

MIN .. --5.6 C

PRC .. 104%

SUN ... 80%

Scoring tables up within the hour, I hope.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for February 2017


FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus __ TOTALS

Kindred Spirit _______ 25 _ 18 _ 14 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 5 _ 0 ______ 78
sryanbruen _________ 20 _ 19 _ 16 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 6 _ 1 ______ 76
DOCARCH __________ 20 _ 17 _ 18 _ 09 _ 05 ___ 4 _ 0 ______ 73
Lumi ______________ 18 _ 11 _ 18 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 3 _ 3 ______ 72
Jpmarn ____________ 23 _ 07 _ 19 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 5 _ 1 ______ 70

NormaL ____________15 _ 19 _ 08 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 5 _ 1 ______ 68

Pauldry ____________20 _ 11 _ 12 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 7 _ 1+1 ____ 66
MrSkinner __________15 _ 15 _ 17 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 1 ______ 66

Con Sensus _________18 _ 11 _ 16 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 1 ______ 66

Rikand ____ (-6) ____ 22 _ 09 _ 18 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 6 _ 0 __ 69-6=63
Dacogawa__________ 13 _ 10 _ 15 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 3 _ 1 ______ 62
JCX BXC ___________ 24 _ 19 _ 01 _ 06 _ 04 ___ 5 _ 1 ______ 60

john mac___________ 14 _ 00 _ 19 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 1 _ 3 ______ 59
Bsal _______________17 _ 11 _ 06 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 7 _ 1+1 ____ 58
waterways__________ 16 _ 08 _ 15 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 1 _ 1 ______ 58
Joe Public __________ 11 _ 10 _ 19 _ 01 _ 10 ___ 6 _ 0 ______ 57
Tae laidir ___________17 _ 09 _ 11 _ 11 _ 04 ___ 2 _ 3 ______ 57
Rameire ___ (-3) ____ 21 _ 11 _ 02 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 2 _ 1 __ 59-3=56
mickger844posts_____ 20 _ 00 _ 18 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 2 _ 0 ______ 54
200motels__________ 16 _ 06 _ 11 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 1 ______ 51

Dasa29 ____________ 15 _ 06 _ 01 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 7 _ 0 ______ 49
Sunflower3 _________ 20 _ 16 _ 02 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 0 ______ 48
M.T. Cranium _______ 11 _ 09 _ 13 _ 05 _ 05 ___ 3 _ 0 ______ 46
____________________________________________

note that a slight boost of two points was given on MIN scores to achieve minimum progression, points for four raw scores of zero were allocated in rank order, basically everybody got two extra points except the two warmest who got one extra. And in the SUN column, with one score of 10 and nobody at 9, the best of the 8's moved up to 9.

Congrats then to Kindred Spirit, sryanbruen and DOCARCH for medal performances this month, scoring generally quite good.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring 2017 and winter portion of four seasons 2016-17

Dec 2016 scores will be dropped from this table next month, they are here to fill out the winter totals.

rank/
__ FORECASTER ____ (Dec) __ JAN _ FEB ___ 2017 TOTAL ___ Winter Total (pts)

t01 pauldry _________ (68) ___ 74 __ 66 _____ 140 ________ 208 ___ 10
t01 Jpmarn _________ (60) ___ 70 __ 70 _____ 140 ________ 200 ____ 6

03 Kindred Spirit _____ (44) ___ 54 __ 78 _____ 132 ________ 176 ____ 1
04 Lumi ____________ (66) ___ 57 __ 72 _____ 129 ________ 195 ____ 5 (t)
05 mickger844posts ___(42) ___ 74 __ 54 _____ 128 ________ 170 ____ 1

06 Con Sensus _______(61) ___ 59 __ 66 _____ 125 ________ 186 ____ 3

06 Tae laidir _________(76) ___ 68 __ 57 _____ 125 ________ 201 ____ 7
07 DOCARCH ________(58) ___ 47 __ 73 _____ 120 ________ 178 ____ 2
t08 sryanbruen ______ (41) ___ 43 __ 76 _____ 119 ________ 160
t08 Rikand __________(53) ___ 54 __ 63 _____ 117 ________ 170 ____ 1
10 John mac ________ (46) ___ 58 __ 59 _____ 117 ________ 163
11 MrSkinner ________(79) ___ 50 __ 66 _____ 116 ________ 195 ____ 5 (t)
12 200motels ________(61) ___ 64 __ 51 _____ 115 ________ 176 ____ 1
13 Rameire _________ (56) ___ 57 __ 56 _____ 113 ________ 169

14 NormaL _________ (81) ___ 43 __ 68 _____ 111 ________ 192 ____ 3

14 Dacogawa ________(51) ___ 46 __ 62 _____ 108 ________ 159
15 waterways _______ (41) ___ 49 __ 58 _____ 107 ________ 148
15 Bsal ____________ (50) ___ 49 __ 58 _____ 107 ________ 157
17 Dasa29 __________(33) ___ 55 __ 49 _____ 104 ________ 137
18 M.T. Cranium _____ (62) ___ 53 __ 46 ______ 99 ________ 161
19 sunflower3 _______ (89) ___ 46 __ 48 ______ 94 ________ 183 ____ 3
20 Joe Public ________ (69) ___ 36 __ 57 ______ 93 ________ 162
21 JCX BXC _________ (--) ___ --- __ 60 ______ 60

=================================================

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(Four seasons, totals Dec - Feb are then awarded points, ten for top score and then seven for 2nd, six for 3rd etc, down to 1 point for each of 8th, 9th and 10th. Two were tied for 10th so there are in fact eleven people with points. If your seasonal score was below 170, no points for you.

As to the annual scoring, Pauldry and Jpmarn are setting the pace with an average of 70 for the first two months. Not too big a spread yet, everyone in with a chance, and remember, the main contest drops your two worst scores so if you've missed a month, keep playing and you still have one other score to drop even if you have that missed month.

M.T. Cranium

The numbers in the above table are all okay but the ranks were inserted with errors between 8th and 10th place.

In fact the tie was not for 8th place, Sryanbruen has that alone, the tie was 9th between Rikand and John mac.

Means nothing to the actual data in the tables, carry on.