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February 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-01-2017 6:39am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,183 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value is 5.3 C. (max 25 points)

    2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during January. (max 20 points)

    3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

    6. For a BONUS question, predict the maximum temperature in Ireland on the 14th, and give a location. (max 10 points, 8 for the temperature, 2 for the location, 2 and 1 point superbonus points available).

    Enter by the deadline of 0300h Wednesday 1st of February, after which penalties run at 1 point every 3h or portion late to 1800h 2nd (at this point the penalty stands at 15 points) then 1 point per hour after that.

    Good luck!


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 6.6 _ 15.0_ -2.0 _ 140_ 90_ 12.0c Valentia Observatory

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 __________ 5.8 _ 14.5_ -3.4 _ 150_ 100_ 11.0c Claremorris


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels_______________ 5.4__13.5__-4.5__129__88__7.4 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal __________ 5.5 _ 14.0_ -4.0 _ 125_ 93_ 13.0c Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    sryanbruen __________ 6.6 _ 15.0_ -2.0 _ 140_ 90_ 12.0c Valentia Observatory

    EDIT: sryanbruen __________ 5.8 _ 15.0_ -5.0 _ 90_ 110_ 12.0c Valentia Observatory

    Cooler, drier and sunnier than what I was anticipating.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa__________ 5.1__13.9__-4.9__110__95__10.6 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit. ___ 6.3 ___14.7 ___ -4.8 ___ 120 ___ 100 ___ 11.5 Phoenix Park.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH __________ 5.8 _ 14.6_ -5.2 _ 85_ 105_ 11.1c Mace Head


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ______________ 5.5 _ 13.8 _ -4.5 _ 115 _ 112 ____ 8.5 _ Shannon


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ______4.9 _ 13.9 _ -5.9 _ 145 _ 80 ____ 11.9 _ Roches Point


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac_______________ 5.2__12.2__-5.3__107__92__8.3 shannon


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi ______ 5.6 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 115 _ 90 ____ 9.9 _ Shannon


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts __________ 5.8 _ 12.6_ -5.2 _ 89_ 110_ 9.1c Mace Head


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn __________ 6.1_ 13.6_ -5.9 _ 120_ 105_ 11.2c Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 __________ 5.3 _ 13.5_ -3.0 _ 110_ 95_ 13.0c Mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways__________ 5.4__13.7__-6.3__118__93__8.0 Caherdaniel


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____5.3____14.4____-5.1____125____100____11°Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCX BX__________ 6.4_ 15_ -3.0 _ 130_ 110_ 11.5c Valentia Observatory


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,183 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium ________ 4.9 __ 13.8 __ --6.5 __ 135 __ 105 ___ 10.5 Malin Head


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry ________ 5.8 __ 14.0__ -4.6 __ 124__ 100___ 12.6 Valencia[/QUOTE]


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,755 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire_______________ 5.9__14.0__-3.5__102__92__9.4 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,183 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for February 2017


    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 14th _ loc'n

    JCX BXC ____________6.4 _ 15.0 _ --3.0 _ 130 _ 110 ___ 11.5 __ Val
    Kindred Spirit _______ 6.3 _ 14.7 _ --4.8 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ Ph Park
    Jpmarn ____________ 6.1 _ 13.6 _ --5.9 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 11.2 __ Val
    Rikand ____ (-6) ____ 6.0 _ 16.0 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 12.0 __ Sherkin
    Rameire ___ (-3) ____ 5.9 _ 14.0 _ --3.5 _ 102 _ 092 ____ 9.4 __ Val
    sryanbruen _________ 5.8 _ 15.0 _ --5.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 12.0 __ Val
    DOCARCH __________ 5.8 _ 14.6 _ --5.2 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 11.1 __ Mace Hd
    Sunflower3 _________ 5.8 _ 14.5 _ --3.4 _ 150 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ Clar
    Pauldry ____________ 5.8 _ 14.0 _ --4.6 _ 124 _ 100 ___ 12.6 __ Val
    mickger844posts_____ 5.8 _ 12.6 _ --5.2 _ 089 _ 110 ____ 9.1 __ Mace Hd
    Lumi ______________ 5.6 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 9.9 __ Shan

    Con Sensus _________5.6 _ 14.0 _ --5.0 _ 119 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ Val

    Bsal _______________5.5 _ 14.0 _ --4.0 _ 125 _ 093 ___ 13.0 __ Val
    Tae laidir ___________5.5 _ 13.8 _ --4.5 _ 115 _ 112 ____ 8.5 __ Shan
    waterways__________ 5.4 _ 13.7 _ --6.3 _ 118 _ 093 ____ 8.0 __ Caherdaniel*
    200motels__________ 5.4 _ 13.5 _ --4.5 _ 129 _ 088 ____ 7.4 __ Val

    NormaL ____________ 5.3 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ ??

    MrSkinner __________ 5.3 _ 14.4 _ --5.1 _ 125 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ Val
    Dasa29 ____________ 5.3 _ 13.5 _ --3.0 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 13.0 __ Mull
    john mac___________ 5.2 _ 12.2 _ --5.3 _ 107 _ 092 ____ 8.3 __ Shan
    Dacogawa__________ 5.1 _ 13.9 _ --4.9 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 10.6 __ Val
    Joe Public __________ 4.9 _ 13.9 _ --5.9 _ 145 _ 080 ___ 11.9 __ RochPt
    M.T. Cranium _______ 4.9 _ 13.8 _ --6.5 _ 135 _ 105 ___ 10.5 __ Malin Hd
    ____________________________________________

    * for this location I think Sherkin Island might be closest?

    In general, a rather average sort of February, although rather wet, is foreseen and the expectation for warmest location is mostly in the southwest, Valentia got 9 of 21 votes, Shannon got 3, Sherkin now at 2 and Roches Point had 1, then away from the southwest, Mace Head had two supporters, and Mullingar, Claremorris, Malin Head and Phoenix Park had one each. The consensus will be adjusted if any other forecasts are entered.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    dammit forgot

    Rikand _____ 6.0 ____ 16.0 _____ -6.0 _____ 90 _____ 110 _____ 12.0 - Sherkin Island


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,183 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    12.5 on 1st at Valentia.

    Euro says, how low can you go? Indications of -8 C potential inland east in 8-10 d. GFS more like -6.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,183 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    That 12.5 was repeated at two stations on the 2nd.

    You may see a low of -3.9 for Mullingar yesterday, that was probably at midnight because I saw -5 on the 0600h report from there. And I never looked at 0700h. So expect something fairly low to be reported for today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Mullingar -5.6 confirmed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    Mullingar -5.6 confirmed.

    88dd024b7f3e953f0902ab8fc06680ce49f59f6ada239929251f27b7cf5d7d37.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    13.3c recorded max

    Min could go lower the next week or so


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,183 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT on 5.1 C which is 0.2 below normal.

    PRC was 115% of normal.

    SUN was 113.7% of normal.

    MAX 13.3, MIN --5.6

    IMT will probably dip below 4.0 at some point then recover a bit. PRC will fall off, SUN may stay about where it is now, MIN likely to fall.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Shannon and Moorepark are leading the way on 13c so far

    Can 14 on the 14th be reached?


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