Share Picks 2017

Grecco · 03-01-2017 08:04PM #1

New Year so we need a new thread (really? was 2016 that good lol)

So I haven't looked at many stocks bar two and was hoping others may have already done the research to start me out. Anyways here`s two.

Shire SHP.L £46.76

Shire is one of the main pharma players globally focusing on treatments for rare diseases and specialised conditions.
Targeting $20bn in annual revenues by 2020.

Bank of Ireland BIR.L 23.75c

Profits (not Revenue!) close to 1 billion, should exceed that in 2017. Bad loan book significantly reduced.
Not without upside risk due to Brexit, but has a great man running the business now in Richie Boucher. Richie isn't afraid to stick his hands into his own pockets and buy a few shares as he demonstrated last year.
Might not see dividends either this year.

g0g · 03-01-2017 09:23PM

General consensus BOI still good value at that price?

The Duke of Moral Hazard · 03-01-2017 10:14PM

Risky Punt - Providence Resources 15.25 GBX

This could have a lot of upside however if nothing shakes out again towards the end of the 3rd quarter expect the stock to recede if not implode once more

Good prospect - Malin Corp Plc 12 EUR

Lots of Bio Sciences on their portfolio
Stock had earlier highs last year to 15.37 - I would expect to test this high again bar exogenous volatility

newacc2015 · 03-01-2017 10:29PM

g0g wrote: »

General consensus BOI still good value at that price?

It rallied to 25c today. If the bond market keeps going the way it is, the massive hole in their pension deficit will slowly close

IMO BOI operates in a unique market. Mortgage rates in Ireland are insane and there is no sign of that changing anytime soon ie Frank Money, the only real potential game changer in the market can't get a license. BOI are actually really good at managing their mortgage book and buying distressed mortgages from other lenders, which they are successful at turning around.

Their UK exposure is still a massive concern. How will they deal with the fact half of their revenue is in the UK? Their UK profits are worth less due to the FX changes

The IPO of AIB might impact their share price. AIB had a pretax profit from trading of around €1bn for 2015, which I imagine is higher now as their cost of borrowing is even lower and they are ridiculously aggressive with borrowers in default. The value of AIB is estimated to be €12.2bn which would indicate BOI is overpriced at 25c per share

Francie Barrett · 03-01-2017 11:45PM

Also think it'll be a good year for financials and I think looking at one of the most reviled names in that sector will turn out to deliver the best performance. Royal Bank of Scotland at £2.27 has had so many problems, investors have just given up on it and think it can never be turned around. The reality is much different. Most of the troubles that it has and will have are known quantities. Customer redress costs from PPI and mis-selling have peaked and have now been time-boxed. DOJ settlement costs will be unpleasant, but will be manageable. The toxic investment banking business has been sold off and shrunk that it's now a tiny part of the balance sheet. The core underlying retail/commercial businesses are strong franchises that are already delivering a 10% ROE. I think with a 12/24 month timeline, we could easily see this at about £4.

Grecco · 04-01-2017 10:57AM

g0g wrote: »

General consensus BOI still good value at that price?

Compared with similar European banks its a massive yes

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/1229/841677-bank-of-ireland/

The Duke of Moral Hazard wrote: »

Risky Punt - Providence Resources 15.25 GBX

Were they not going to be the next Tullow Oil. Cash is still king with these junior oil explorers, how is Providence doing on the funding front?

newacc2015 wrote: »

The value of AIB is estimated to be €12.2bn which would indicate BOI is overpriced at 25c per share

How is the value of AIB above any bank found, Depending on how you go about valuing these they could be worthless or the next Apple. I haven't looked too deeply into AIB but I am happy to buy BOI at 25p.
Yes there may be some short term volatility with Brexit but overall I expect this to test the 30p mark before long.

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Also think it'll be a good year for financials and I think looking at one of the most reviled names in that sector will turn out to deliver the best performance. Royal Bank of Scotland at £2.27 has had so many problems, investors have just given up on it and think it can never be turned around. The reality is much different. Most of the troubles that it has and will have are known quantities. Customer redress costs from PPI and mis-selling have peaked and have now been time-boxed. DOJ settlement costs will be unpleasant, but will be manageable. The toxic investment banking business has been sold off and shrunk that it's now a tiny part of the balance sheet. The core underlying retail/commercial businesses are strong franchises that are already delivering a 10% ROE. I think with a 12/24 month timeline, we could easily see this at about £4.

Must take a close look Francie

Green Mile · 04-01-2017 01:28PM

I think Providence Resources would a good one to invest however, I think their share price will go either way when they start drilling in June/July 2017.
Definitely one to watch.

jive · 04-01-2017 03:50PM

REGN $381.20

Down 35% last year, more than sector average, good pipeline and likely approval of a new blockbuster drug in March. Fairly volatile stock, looks likely to rebound this year.

I don't invest in individual stocks, only ETFs, I like to pick a few to follow just for interests sakes.

Thargor · 04-01-2017 08:47PM

jive wrote: »

REGN $381.20

Down 35% last year, more than sector average, good pipeline and likely approval of a new blockbuster drug in March. Fairly volatile stock, looks likely to rebound this year.

I don't invest in individual stocks, only ETFs, I like to pick a few to follow just for interests sakes.

Any ETF or fund recs for the year?

y0ssar1an22 · 05-01-2017 12:12PM

man utd. if you believe they will get into top 4 and champions league (I do) their share price should see a nice rise. currently trading at $15.45. i expect an increase up to $19-20.

Volkswagen. still trading way down after the emissions scandal at €139 and on the rise. i expect price to stabilize at about €180-190.

after that, not too sure. disney could be a good prospect. couple of big movies due out in 2017 which should increase value.

daheff · 05-01-2017 06:19PM

I agree with BOI (& PTSB) -and financials in general.

Also going to say a general US Stock mkt pick (USD strengthening vs EUR).

See OIL rising to 65$ a barrel...tempered somewhat by USD/EUR.

Remember this time last year China wobbled and caused a big dip in the markets? I'm seeing something similar this year...maybe just at the start of the summer...DTrump esquire caused!

UK stocks (FTSE 100)- I'm guessing will drop circa 5%, but probably lose some more in EUR terms due to GBP weakness after BREXIT is finally confirmed by UK govt.

Hollister11 · 05-01-2017 06:21PM

What you peoples expectations be of BOI in 10 years. Possibly a €1, or €2?

ftse100 · 06-01-2017 12:29AM

daheff wrote: »

I agree with BOI (& PTSB) -and financials in general.

Also going to say a general US Stock mkt pick (USD strengthening vs EUR).

See OIL rising to 65$ a barrel...tempered somewhat by USD/EUR.

Remember this time last year China wobbled and caused a big dip in the markets? I'm seeing something similar this year...maybe just at the start of the summer...DTrump esquire caused!

UK stocks (FTSE 100)- I'm guessing will drop circa 5%, but probably lose some more in EUR terms due to GBP weakness after BREXIT is finally confirmed by UK govt.

Wouldn't GBP weakness see less of a loss in Euro terms?

daheff · 06-01-2017 11:56AM

ftse100 wrote: »

Wouldn't GBP weakness see less of a loss in Euro terms?

On a 1 for 1 basis yes. If you had GBP shares now and the price stayed the same but the FX rate dropped, then your EUR value would be less.

But remember that there are outside investors whose GBP buying power increases due to the USD/GBP EUR/GBP FX rate. This will bid up the market somewhat.

Grecco · 06-01-2017 06:03PM

I notice a lot of Currency predictions here. I don`t believe the Dollar will get much stronger, the euro will strengthen but so too will Sterling.
I`m predicting Sterling/euro back down to 80p
Euro/Dollar at $1.15

But by far the best currency again this year will go to Bitcoin (853.02 Euro). In fact the Bitcoin could 10X again if the Chinese economy implodes which it might well do. The China Economy now is all about construction, the level of Debt, Ghost estates and what can only be called as lunatic gambling there is staggering. Its like Celtic tiger Ireland by 10,000. Like these guys (and girls they are even worse) are buying 2 and 3 apartments, speculating and borrowing to the hilt for whats nothing more than concrete boxes in the sky.
Now the question is not if but when. The Chinese Government can keep it going for so long.
Theirs talks there of a leveling out and soft landing! Sound familiar?
Where have you heard all that before

06-01-2017 06:08PM

The Duke of Moral Hazard wrote: »

Good prospect - Malin Corp Plc 12 EUR

Lots of Bio Sciences on their portfolio

Stock had earlier highs last year to 15.37 - I would expect to test this high again bar exogenous volatility

Isn't that the Elan crew? Bargepoles come to mind.

jive · 06-01-2017 11:26PM

Thargor wrote: »

Any ETF or fund recs for the year?

No afraid not, I just invest in VEA, VGK and VTI. Can't remember %s off top of my head but around 50% VGK, 35% VTI and 15% VEA. I don't even follow news on these I just rebalance every few months.

kerosene · 09-01-2017 06:29AM

Anglesea mining might well be worth keeping an eye on this month. They have a scoping study due any day now, it is quite a volatile share and id be suprised if it didnt provide a decent return in the short term.

Ive been following cap-xx for 12 months, its gradually increased from 3p to 7p during that time and looks to have plenty of room for bigger gains.

Green Mile · 10-01-2017 01:09PM

Anyone have an opinion on lansdowne oil and gas? They seem to have gotten into some amount of trouble in the prvious years but their stocks are back trading at a low price. I think they’re involved with the drilling for the oil off the coast of Ireland. Seems like a very risky stock but perhaps one that would be worth the punt?

kerosene · 13-01-2017 12:54PM

kerosene wrote: »

Anglesea mining might well be worth keeping an eye on this month. They have a scoping study due any day now, it is quite a volatile share and id be suprised if it didnt provide a decent return in the short term.

Ive been following cap-xx for 12 months, its gradually increased from 3p to 7p during that time and looks to have plenty of room for bigger gains.

cap-xx at 10p today and rising.

y0ssar1an22 · 13-01-2017 02:26PM

kerosene wrote: »

cap-xx at 10p today and rising.

am i missing something here? are they not trading at £10, as oppose to 10p?

https://www.google.ie/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=cap-xx+share+price

alb · 13-01-2017 03:48PM

GBX means pence

The Duke of Moral Hazard · 18-01-2017 10:16PM

Thargor wrote: »

Any ETF or fund recs for the year?

Could be an EFT with massive upside, bit of a risky one but aren't they all?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NUGT?p=NUGT

Pawwed Rig · 18-01-2017 10:17PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Isn't that the Elan crew? Bargepoles come to mind.

Just got a letter from broker today asking if I want to join a class action lawsuit against Elan for insider trading :pac:

The Duke of Moral Hazard · 18-01-2017 10:33PM

Thanks to DrDonkey for the heads up about Elan.

Sounds like a right car crash. Didn't know the back story as it was before my time.

Read this article and f*ck me what a horror show:

http://www.irishexaminer.com/lifestyle/features/weekend-big-read-the-story-of-elan-stranger-than-fiction-240094.html

Pawwed Rig · 18-01-2017 10:47PM

I actually made good money on Elan back in the day. I was lucky though as I sold at $25 or so about a week before they hit $2.

It was a rollercoaster but a good rush for a gambler.

To be fair they did come out with some winning products. The MS drug was all the rage when I was in.

The Duke of Moral Hazard · 18-01-2017 11:41PM

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

I actually made good money on Elan back in the day. I was lucky though as I sold at $25 or so about a week before they hit $2.

It was a rollercoaster but a good rush for a gambler.

To be fair they did come out with some winning products. The MS drug was all the rage when I was in.

Anything catching your eye these days ;-)

Pawwed Rig · 19-01-2017 12:08AM

The Duke of Moral Hazard wrote: »

Anything catching your eye these days ;-)

I have good gains on CRH and Netflix at the moment. Both at high water marks though so not sure if there is much value in them anymore.

Hubspot might be worth a punt if you can get it for less than $50 (the company has a target of $200 over the next few years so believe that at your own risk). I think 20% gains are achievable but could be volatile

19-01-2017 07:34AM

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Just got a letter from broker today asking if I want to join a class action lawsuit against Elan for insider trading :pac:

The class action lawsuit is decided and won. Its just a case of applying for the reward of you qualify (if you bought or sold shares in the relevant time when the insider trading was going on). Of course, if you qualify, you will need to come up with 10 year old evidence of your trades...

The Duke of Moral Hazard wrote: »

Thanks to DrDonkey for the heads up about Elan.

Sounds like a right car crash. Didn't know the back story as it was before my time.

Read this article and f*ck me what a horror show:

http://www.irishexaminer.com/lifestyle/features/weekend-big-read-the-story-of-elan-stranger-than-fiction-240094.html

That article isn't the half of it. Biotechs can be rough rides but there were other things here such as the sale of assets cheap to old buddies etc

What scares me about Malin is that six of the eight Directors, including the chairman and chief executive are all ex Elan insiders. Indeed, the 'lead independent Non-Executive Director' was the CEO's number two in the final days of Elan. It doesn't suggest any improvement in corporate governance. For sure somebody will make money out of it, but who and why is open to question and I would much prefer to avoid.

19-01-2017 07:41AM

The Duke of Moral Hazard wrote: »

Anything catching your eye these days ;-)

I sold some BHP Billiton two weeks ago for a more than double is just less than a year and haven't reinvested. With the Trump rally, I don't see huge value anywhere right now and Brexit means I think UK stocks will have a rocky ride. I'm heavily into Big Oil which I think will continue to improve and the divvy is good while i'm waiting.

Pawwed Rig · 19-01-2017 08:19AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The class action lawsuit is decided and won. Its just a case of applying for the reward of you qualify (if you bought or sold shares in the relevant time when the insider trading was going on). Of course, if you qualify, you will need to come up with 10 year old evidence of your trades....

Just check my online trade history.
I get these notifications of class actions regularly enough. Usually just bin them as they seem to be litigation happy over yonder in the US

Share Picks 2017

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