Share Picks 2017

Grecco

New Year so we need a new thread (really? was 2016 that good lol)

So I haven't looked at many stocks bar two and was hoping others may have already done the research to start me out. Anyways here`s two.

Shire SHP.L £46.76

Shire is one of the main pharma players globally focusing on treatments for rare diseases and specialised conditions.
Targeting $20bn in annual revenues by 2020.

Bank of Ireland BIR.L 23.75c

Profits (not Revenue!) close to 1 billion, should exceed that in 2017. Bad loan book significantly reduced.
Not without upside risk due to Brexit, but has a great man running the business now in Richie Boucher. Richie isn't afraid to stick his hands into his own pockets and buy a few shares as he demonstrated last year.
Might not see dividends either this year.

g0g

General consensus BOI still good value at that price?

The Duke of Moral Hazard

Risky Punt - Providence Resources 15.25 GBX

• This could have a lot of upside however if nothing shakes out again towards the end of the 3rd quarter expect the stock to recede if not implode once more

Good prospect - Malin Corp Plc 12 EUR

• Lots of Bio Sciences on their portfolio
• Stock had earlier highs last year to 15.37 - I would expect to test this high again bar exogenous volatility

newacc2015

g0g wrote: »

General consensus BOI still good value at that price?

It rallied to 25c today. If the bond market keeps going the way it is, the massive hole in their pension deficit will slowly close

IMO BOI operates in a unique market. Mortgage rates in Ireland are insane and there is no sign of that changing anytime soon ie Frank Money, the only real potential game changer in the market can't get a license. BOI are actually really good at managing their mortgage book and buying distressed mortgages from other lenders, which they are successful at turning around.

Their UK exposure is still a massive concern. How will they deal with the fact half of their revenue is in the UK? Their UK profits are worth less due to the FX changes

The IPO of AIB might impact their share price. AIB had a pretax profit from trading of around €1bn for 2015, which I imagine is higher now as their cost of borrowing is even lower and they are ridiculously aggressive with borrowers in default. The value of AIB is estimated to be €12.2bn which would indicate BOI is overpriced at 25c per share

Francie Barrett

Also think it'll be a good year for financials and I think looking at one of the most reviled names in that sector will turn out to deliver the best performance. Royal Bank of Scotland at £2.27 has had so many problems, investors have just given up on it and think it can never be turned around. The reality is much different. Most of the troubles that it has and will have are known quantities. Customer redress costs from PPI and mis-selling have peaked and have now been time-boxed. DOJ settlement costs will be unpleasant, but will be manageable. The toxic investment banking business has been sold off and shrunk that it's now a tiny part of the balance sheet. The core underlying retail/commercial businesses are strong franchises that are already delivering a 10% ROE. I think with a 12/24 month timeline, we could easily see this at about £4.

Grecco

g0g wrote: »

General consensus BOI still good value at that price?

Compared with similar European banks its a massive yes

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/1229/841677-bank-of-ireland/

The Duke of Moral Hazard wrote: »

Risky Punt - Providence Resources 15.25 GBX

Were they not going to be the next Tullow Oil. Cash is still king with these junior oil explorers, how is Providence doing on the funding front?

newacc2015 wrote: »

The value of AIB is estimated to be €12.2bn which would indicate BOI is overpriced at 25c per share

How is the value of AIB above any bank found, Depending on how you go about valuing these they could be worthless or the next Apple. I haven't looked too deeply into AIB but I am happy to buy BOI at 25p.
Yes there may be some short term volatility with Brexit but overall I expect this to test the 30p mark before long.

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Also think it'll be a good year for financials and I think looking at one of the most reviled names in that sector will turn out to deliver the best performance. Royal Bank of Scotland at £2.27 has had so many problems, investors have just given up on it and think it can never be turned around. The reality is much different. Most of the troubles that it has and will have are known quantities. Customer redress costs from PPI and mis-selling have peaked and have now been time-boxed. DOJ settlement costs will be unpleasant, but will be manageable. The toxic investment banking business has been sold off and shrunk that it's now a tiny part of the balance sheet. The core underlying retail/commercial businesses are strong franchises that are already delivering a 10% ROE. I think with a 12/24 month timeline, we could easily see this at about £4.

Must take a close look Francie

Green Mile

I think Providence Resources would a good one to invest however, I think their share price will go either way when they start drilling in June/July 2017.
Definitely one to watch.

jive

REGN $381.20

Down 35% last year, more than sector average, good pipeline and likely approval of a new blockbuster drug in March. Fairly volatile stock, looks likely to rebound this year.

I don't invest in individual stocks, only ETFs, I like to pick a few to follow just for interests sakes.

Thargor

jive wrote: »

REGN $381.20

Down 35% last year, more than sector average, good pipeline and likely approval of a new blockbuster drug in March. Fairly volatile stock, looks likely to rebound this year.

I don't invest in individual stocks, only ETFs, I like to pick a few to follow just for interests sakes.

Any ETF or fund recs for the year?

y0ssar1an22

man utd. if you believe they will get into top 4 and champions league (I do) their share price should see a nice rise. currently trading at $15.45. i expect an increase up to $19-20.

Volkswagen. still trading way down after the emissions scandal at €139 and on the rise. i expect price to stabilize at about €180-190.

after that, not too sure. disney could be a good prospect. couple of big movies due out in 2017 which should increase value.

daheff

I agree with BOI (& PTSB) -and financials in general.


Also going to say a general US Stock mkt pick (USD strengthening vs EUR).


See OIL rising to 65$ a barrel...tempered somewhat by USD/EUR.

Remember this time last year China wobbled and caused a big dip in the markets? I'm seeing something similar this year...maybe just at the start of the summer...DTrump esquire caused!

UK stocks (FTSE 100)- I'm guessing will drop circa 5%, but probably lose some more in EUR terms due to GBP weakness after BREXIT is finally confirmed by UK govt.

Hollister11

What you peoples expectations be of BOI in 10 years. Possibly a €1, or €2?

ftse100

daheff wrote: »

I agree with BOI (& PTSB) -and financials in general.


Also going to say a general US Stock mkt pick (USD strengthening vs EUR).


See OIL rising to 65$ a barrel...tempered somewhat by USD/EUR.

Remember this time last year China wobbled and caused a big dip in the markets? I'm seeing something similar this year...maybe just at the start of the summer...DTrump esquire caused!

UK stocks (FTSE 100)- I'm guessing will drop circa 5%, but probably lose some more in EUR terms due to GBP weakness after BREXIT is finally confirmed by UK govt.

Wouldn't GBP weakness see less of a loss in Euro terms?

daheff

ftse100 wrote: »

Wouldn't GBP weakness see less of a loss in Euro terms?

On a 1 for 1 basis yes. If you had GBP shares now and the price stayed the same but the FX rate dropped, then your EUR value would be less.

But remember that there are outside investors whose GBP buying power increases due to the USD/GBP EUR/GBP FX rate. This will bid up the market somewhat.

Grecco

I notice a lot of Currency predictions here. I don`t believe the Dollar will get much stronger, the euro will strengthen but so too will Sterling.
I`m predicting Sterling/euro back down to 80p
Euro/Dollar at $1.15

But by far the best currency again this year will go to Bitcoin (853.02 Euro). In fact the Bitcoin could 10X again if the Chinese economy implodes which it might well do. The China Economy now is all about construction, the level of Debt, Ghost estates and what can only be called as lunatic gambling there is staggering. Its like Celtic tiger Ireland by 10,000. Like these guys (and girls they are even worse) are buying 2 and 3 apartments, speculating and borrowing to the hilt for whats nothing more than concrete boxes in the sky.
Now the question is not if but when. The Chinese Government can keep it going for so long.
Theirs talks there of a leveling out and soft landing! Sound familiar?
Where have you heard all that before

The Duke of Moral Hazard

The Duke of Moral Hazard wrote: »

Good prospect - Malin Corp Plc 12 EUR

• Lots of Bio Sciences on their portfolio
• Stock had earlier highs last year to 15.37 - I would expect to test this high again bar exogenous volatility

Isn't that the Elan crew? Bargepoles come to mind.

jive

Thargor wrote: »

Any ETF or fund recs for the year?

No afraid not, I just invest in VEA, VGK and VTI. Can't remember %s off top of my head but around 50% VGK, 35% VTI and 15% VEA. I don't even follow news on these I just rebalance every few months.

kerosene

Anglesea mining might well be worth keeping an eye on this month. They have a scoping study due any day now, it is quite a volatile share and id be suprised if it didnt provide a decent return in the short term.

Ive been following cap-xx for 12 months, its gradually increased from 3p to 7p during that time and looks to have plenty of room for bigger gains.

Green Mile

Anyone have an opinion on lansdowne oil and gas? They seem to have gotten into some amount of trouble in the prvious years but their stocks are back trading at a low price. I think they’re involved with the drilling for the oil off the coast of Ireland. Seems like a very risky stock but perhaps one that would be worth the punt?

kerosene

kerosene wrote: »

Anglesea mining might well be worth keeping an eye on this month. They have a scoping study due any day now, it is quite a volatile share and id be suprised if it didnt provide a decent return in the short term.

Ive been following cap-xx for 12 months, its gradually increased from 3p to 7p during that time and looks to have plenty of room for bigger gains.

cap-xx at 10p today and rising.

y0ssar1an22

kerosene wrote: »

cap-xx at 10p today and rising.

am i missing something here? are they not trading at £10, as oppose to 10p?

https://www.google.ie/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=cap-xx+share+price

alb

GBX means pence

The Duke of Moral Hazard

Thargor wrote: »

Any ETF or fund recs for the year?

Could be an EFT with massive upside, bit of a risky one but aren't they all?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NUGT?p=NUGT

Pawwed Rig

Deleted User wrote: »

Isn't that the Elan crew? Bargepoles come to mind.

Just got a letter from broker today asking if I want to join a class action lawsuit against Elan for insider trading :pac:

The Duke of Moral Hazard

Thanks to DrDonkey for the heads up about Elan.

Sounds like a right car crash. Didn't know the back story as it was before my time.

Read this article and f*ck me what a horror show:

http://www.irishexaminer.com/lifestyle/features/weekend-big-read-the-story-of-elan-stranger-than-fiction-240094.html

Pawwed Rig

I actually made good money on Elan back in the day. I was lucky though as I sold at $25 or so about a week before they hit $2.

It was a rollercoaster but a good rush for a gambler.

To be fair they did come out with some winning products. The MS drug was all the rage when I was in.

The Duke of Moral Hazard

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

I actually made good money on Elan back in the day. I was lucky though as I sold at $25 or so about a week before they hit $2.

It was a rollercoaster but a good rush for a gambler.

To be fair they did come out with some winning products. The MS drug was all the rage when I was in.

Anything catching your eye these days ;-)

Pawwed Rig

The Duke of Moral Hazard wrote: »

Anything catching your eye these days ;-)

I have good gains on CRH and Netflix at the moment. Both at high water marks though so not sure if there is much value in them anymore.

Hubspot might be worth a punt if you can get it for less than $50 (the company has a target of $200 over the next few years so believe that at your own risk). I think 20% gains are achievable but could be volatile

Pawwed Rig

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Just got a letter from broker today asking if I want to join a class action lawsuit against Elan for insider trading :pac:

The class action lawsuit is decided and won. Its just a case of applying for the reward of you qualify (if you bought or sold shares in the relevant time when the insider trading was going on). Of course, if you qualify, you will need to come up with 10 year old evidence of your trades...

The Duke of Moral Hazard wrote: »

Thanks to DrDonkey for the heads up about Elan.

Sounds like a right car crash. Didn't know the back story as it was before my time.

Read this article and f*ck me what a horror show:

http://www.irishexaminer.com/lifestyle/features/weekend-big-read-the-story-of-elan-stranger-than-fiction-240094.html

That article isn't the half of it. Biotechs can be rough rides but there were other things here such as the sale of assets cheap to old buddies etc

What scares me about Malin is that six of the eight Directors, including the chairman and chief executive are all ex Elan insiders. Indeed, the 'lead independent Non-Executive Director' was the CEO's number two in the final days of Elan. It doesn't suggest any improvement in corporate governance. For sure somebody will make money out of it, but who and why is open to question and I would much prefer to avoid.

The Duke of Moral Hazard

The Duke of Moral Hazard wrote: »

Anything catching your eye these days ;-)

I sold some BHP Billiton two weeks ago for a more than double is just less than a year and haven't reinvested. With the Trump rally, I don't see huge value anywhere right now and Brexit means I think UK stocks will have a rocky ride. I'm heavily into Big Oil which I think will continue to improve and the divvy is good while i'm waiting.

Pawwed Rig

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The class action lawsuit is decided and won. Its just a case of applying for the reward of you qualify (if you bought or sold shares in the relevant time when the insider trading was going on). Of course, if you qualify, you will need to come up with 10 year old evidence of your trades....

Just check my online trade history.
I get these notifications of class actions regularly enough. Usually just bin them as they seem to be litigation happy over yonder in the US

Pawwed Rig

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

I get these notifications of class actions regularly enough. Usually just bin them as they seem to be litigation happy over yonder in the US

The usual ones that come are from ambulance chasing lawyers looking to start an action on any pretext and then to settle for 'go-away money' and fat fees, and I agree are only suitable for binning.

This one is different. The case has already been in court and has been won. The case is over. The only remaining step now is just to divide the money (up to 100 million dollars) among those who qualify (those who traded in the relevant periods even if they were not part of the court action)

evolving_doors

Chipotle Mexican Grill maybe.
Hasn't recovered since the ecoli scare but appears to be creeping back up.
Plus (it's impossible not to mention lately :rolleyes: ) the anti everything trump amongst half the American population... so people might go pro-Mexican.
I hazard a guess at about $50 to go yet.

Pawwed Rig

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Hubspot might be worth a punt if you can get it for less than $50 (the company has a target of $200 over the next few years so believe that at your own risk). I think 20% gains are achievable but could be volatile

14% rise since I posted this

b4bmm

Cairn Energy LSE, already had a nice run since the lows in oil price but Got lots more to run with the monster find in Senegal. Also start producing from North Sea mid this year. History of returns to shareholders, sold a big find in India for about $4B few years back with special dividend to holders. If you want a more leveraged play to that find in Senegal go for FAR Ltd on the ASX. Depends on your risk tolerance. Big swings with FAR are possible, CNE is more stable if your prone to stressing over high volatility. Outlook of a few years but should be a big year for both.

MNS also on the ASX. Extremely well run graphite exploration company trying to get a foothold in the growing battery industry, the best management I have seen for a junior by far. All management heavily invested and not with free options either, from their own pockets. Getting down to the business side of things trying to lock down off take agreements which will in turn allow finance for construction of the operation in Tanzania. Has already given great returns but its got a long way to go over the next few years and even the next 12 months. Attracting top level people to the company, just recently the former CEO of Aston Martin has joined the board who has extensive contacts, previously worked with Porsche, BMW, Ford, Daewoo etc and should really be the last link in getting a deal with a major auto manufacturer. They have the best battery guys in the business on the board too, the inventor of the lithium-ion battery infact. approx $350m MC right now, this will be many billions in the coming years IMO.
Good luck to all.

Green Mile

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

14% rise since I posted this

Their earnings announcement for full year 2016 will be issued on 14th of Feb so that explains their increase. Would be interesting to watch that stock on that day.

y0ssar1an22

possibly activision blizzard. announced good results today. with overwatch killing it, and their next cod should be back in Vietnam, i expect continued rise. currently trading at $47. hoping this to rise to 60-70 by june/july.

RobertKK

Risky but high risk reward.
Esperion is already up 70%+ this year and at $21 it is still way off its highs which were well over $100, it lows were at $9s
The pathway for their cholesterol drug looks clearer.
For the record I bought some at $13s and more in the $18s.
Despite the already huge gains, I believe ESPR still has a long way to go.

ftse100

kerosene wrote: »

Anglesea mining might well be worth keeping an eye on this month. They have a scoping study due any day now, it is quite a volatile share and id be suprised if it didnt provide a decent return in the short term.

Ive been following cap-xx for 12 months, its gradually increased from 3p to 7p during that time and looks to have plenty of room for bigger gains.

Anglesey up 30% on Friday...Hopefully they finally get Parys back up and running soon. Zinc is well up over the past 12 months. Weak GBP should help too from an external and domestic POV. Pretty concerned with the age of the BOD though.. Near 70s. Could be a buyout down the line possibly.. I still think they are massively undervalued @ 4.8GBX

For those looking for a big international bluechip and who are not worried by political correctness, might I suggest Philip Morris International (PM). This is the Philip Morris business worldwide except the US.

They pay a decent dividend (4% before taxes) and have recently had a lot of success with a new reduced risk tobacco product (heatsticks) which heats the tobacco instead of burning it - and seems to be doing very well where it has been launched - so has growth potential.

Current price is $102 per share

BeardedBadger

I'm pretty much a complete newbie here but does anyone else think AMD is a good punt this year? Lots of trouble in the Intel camp (COO quit last week) and new tech being brought out by AMD could lead to fairly significant gains. Please feel free to correct me on this.

Rebel001

How about CAP-XX on LSE? I bought some @ 7 GBP. It seems like this share has a bit to run yet and it could be very good depending on announcements.
I know this share was mentioned previously on this thread.

irishgeo

Anyone aryzta are worth a punt in their current troubles.

Surely they will manage to pull out of it.

Prezatch

Highly speculative cobalt junior miner: Ardea Resources recently IPO'd and currently priced a 0.31. Market cap 20m AUD.

Cobalt prices are just beginning to spike back up again and with the current shift to electric vehicles taking the world by storm this could work out very nicely.

AlmightyCushion

BeardedBadger wrote: »

I'm pretty much a complete newbie here but does anyone else think AMD is a good punt this year? Lots of trouble in the Intel camp (COO quit last week) and new tech being brought out by AMD could lead to fairly significant gains. Please feel free to correct me on this.

As some one who knows about tech and follows AMD related news, Zen has been talked about and hyped up for a while now. If information leaked to date is accurate then it could be very good for AMD. AMD hyped up previous chip releases and they turned out to be rubbish so there is that risk.

Because of the hype and leaks, it's possible that Zen being competitive could already be priced in. If you want to make a quick buck, get in and get out after Zen hits the market then I think you might be too late for that. If Zen is good then you might make a few quid but nothing major. If it's rubbish or just not very competitive then you could lose money. If you want to buy and hold for a few years then I think it could be a good investment. Their GPUs are pretty competitive with nVidia in every segment bar the high end chips like the 1080 and Titan but AMD has Vega coming soon which should compete in that segment.

I think that with the release of Zen and Vega we could see a much more competitive AMD over the next few years. Saying that, I haven't put my money where my mouth is and invested in AMD. I just got into investing so I'm sticking with ETFs for now.

Prezatch

Prezatch wrote: »

Highly speculative cobalt junior miner: Ardea Resources recently IPO'd and currently priced a 0.31. Market cap 20m AUD.

Cobalt prices are just beginning to spike back up again and with the current shift to electric vehicles taking the world by storm this could work out very nicely.

Just to add to this, my other speculative pick in the lithium/cobalt space is European Metals Holdings, currently priced at 0.985 on the ASX. Expect it to open about 8-10% higher on Monday due to the latest update (http://www.lse.co.uk/AllNews.asp?code=qeutwbwc&headline=European_Metals_Says_Cinovec_Lithium_Estimate_Increased_Substantially). Risky due to the lack of secured financing so far. Market cap 72m AUD.

For something less risky go with Galaxy Resources currently priced at 0.54 which should see at least 40% growth by year end. Market cap 1bn AUD

marno21

Prezatch wrote: »

Highly speculative cobalt junior miner: Ardea Resources recently IPO'd and currently priced a 0.31. Market cap 20m AUD.

Cobalt prices are just beginning to spike back up again and with the current shift to electric vehicles taking the world by storm this could work out very nicely.

Trading right now at 0.695. Quite a jump in a week.

Prezatch

Yep, joint largest gainer on the ASX lastnight up 50%. I was supposed to buy some more at the open but fell asleep!

Couple of moving parts involved, the price of cobalt is rocketing up, the largest current cobalt miners are mainly based in the DRC which is experiencing some conflicts at the moment with full on war potentially on the cards, and most importantly ARL is still supremely undervalued to its peers given the size and quality of its resource. ARL also has a decent bank balance.

They announced lastnight that a pre-feaasibility study for the KNP zone is being prepared and will be available in Jan 18.

https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYC4g%2B9yxKZoeV1ke92GA%3D%3D

irishgeo

being trying to get on with degiro but its i cant figure out how to buy it.

Prezatch

I use degiro and have no problems. Degiro's cheap and cheerful system won't show you any price information for any stocks on the ASX though, so I go with google finance to see approximately where it's at. You can' t buy immediately when the market opens either until Degiro sorts itself out so usually around 11.45pm.

Not knowing the current bid/ask means you might need to put a limit price slightly higher than what you see on google finance to get the order executed.

Just a word of warning, despite the bull feeling on this stock at the moment, there is still huge potential for it to go south, as with any penny stock... so tread carefully.

lucky john

irishgeo wrote: »

being trying to get on with degiro but its i cant figure out how to buy it.

As Prezatch said...tread carefully, a lot of big boy manipulation going on.

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/motors/electric-car-makers-on-battery-alert-as-hedge-funds-stockpile-cobalt-1.2987018