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Italy : ma che cazzo hai fatto ?

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,129 ✭✭✭R P McMurphy


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    The EU free market is a good thing but the same old despicable beaurocratic faces Juncker, Van Rumpouy, Merkel at el leading the way and with some awful ideas and policy are turning people against it.

    Watch LePen storm France next year and the EU is finished in my opinion.
    LePen is still a very dirty word in France. Absolutely no chance of her storming anything.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,839 ✭✭✭Jelle1880


    Too many people falling for this myth that this is a vote against the EU.

    The ones that might benefit from it are Lega Nord, who will probably never govern and the Five Star Movement who see themselves as outside the traditional left-right spectrum.

    The latter one are somewhat Euroskeptic, but not even remotely anti-EU. They want Italy to stay in the EU but want changes to the EU as well. For example if they get in power they want a referendum on the use of the Euro, but not about leaving the EU.

    This was never going to be a Yes I believe, Renzi was a fool for making this about his own personal career. He didn't learn from Cameron it seems. Political suicide at it's best.

    Many people will make this into a win for the right, but plenty of left people have voted No as well, as it was simply a very bad proposal. The crux of it was to take power away from the local governments and consolidate it in Rome, which many people simply don't want. Especially in Italy local governments tend to be far more popular and do better than the national one.

    You just have to look at the amount of national governments they have had. I'm 31 and it's been something like 17 or 18 governments since I can recall (and at least 60 since WWII). It's also the 3rd time since WWII that Italians have voted against constitutional reform, they simply don't want it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    LePen is still a very dirty word in France. Absolutely no chance of her storming anything.

    I think you'd be incredibly naive to think she won't run it close at the very least.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,129 ✭✭✭R P McMurphy


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    I think you'd be incredibly naive to think she won't run it close at the very least.

    How is that being naive? You would find it difficult to find a French person that would admit to even considering voting for her party. She is a pariah and for good reason. Not a hope


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,839 ✭✭✭Jelle1880


    How is that being naive? You would find it difficult to find a French person that would admit to even considering voting for her party. She is a pariah and for good reason. Not a hope

    I disagree, even if I strongly dislike her.

    Front National won big in the last elections, 4.7 million votes, 24% of the vote and 24 of France's 74 seats.
    They've been incredibly smart in showing a different face in different parts of the country. In the south they focus on immigrants because many French people have worries about that. In the north they focus on the economy and welfare.

    It all depends on who she goes up against I think. If it's François Fillon then I think he will win handsomely.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,151 ✭✭✭kupus


    meh


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 27,834 ✭✭✭✭ThisRegard


    That's elitist talk.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Another politician placing his ego above national interests.

    Pinning your career to the outcome of a referendum is fairly universally known to be a really dumb idea. Everyone who dislikes you will vote against your referendum to make you stand down, regardless of the content of the actual referendum. And very few politicians have approval ratings above 50%.

    Cameron learned this earlier this year and now this idiot has too.

    This is an interesting one though because the referendum had basically nothing to do with EU membership at all. The media has spun it as pro-EU versus anti-EU because that's how the parties are aligned, but the outcome of the referendum meant nothing for EU membership.

    The worry is that now the PM has stood down, an election will be called that anti-EU sides will capitalise on.

    But that's far from certain. A "No" vote, much like referendums here, has significant chunks of people who actually are voting on the constitution, and not on the government. Plus, with their "protest" vote out of the way, many voters will feel like they've had their say; those votes don't necessarily translate into support for a far-right party, but rather a re-organisation of the existing parties.

    One of the issues we have here in Ireland with media is that much of our media follows the lead of the UK media and feeds from their stories. The UK media have largely doubled-down on Brexit now and are looking to put a positive spin on it; any sniff that there's anti-EU sentiment elsewhere in the EU makes it look like the UK was "ahead of the curve" and hadn't just lost it's mind.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,839 ✭✭✭Jelle1880


    seamus wrote: »
    Another politician placing his ego above national interests.

    Pinning your career to the outcome of a referendum is fairly universally known to be a really dumb idea. Everyone who dislikes you will vote against your referendum to make you stand down, regardless of the content of the actual referendum. And very few politicians have approval ratings above 50%.

    Cameron learned this earlier this year and now this idiot has too.

    This is an interesting one though because the referendum had basically nothing to do with EU membership at all. The media has spun it as pro-EU versus anti-EU because that's how the parties are aligned, but the outcome of the referendum meant nothing for EU membership.

    The worry is that now the PM has stood down, an election will be called that anti-EU sides will capitalise on.

    But that's far from certain. A "No" vote, much like referendums here, has significant chunks of people who actually are voting on the constitution, and not on the government. Plus, with their "protest" vote out of the way, many voters will feel like they've had their say; those votes don't necessarily translate into support for a far-right party, but rather a re-organisation of the existing parties.

    As far as I know there is nothing in Italian law that allows elections right now.

    The government hasn't fallen, Renzi has just resigned.


  • Registered Users Posts: 62 ✭✭The Draugan


    The EU is doomed. I think the EU should slowly wind it down slowly and allow these countries to be independent sovereign nations once again. The people will take it either democratically via elections or by the bullet.

    his is now inevitably what needs to happen , those at the head of the EU and may of the member states are so out of touch with the people they are supposed to represent that they are starting to loose control altogether. Its pretty evident at this stage that the bank bailouts were unwanted as are the throngs of economic migrants wandering across Europe at the minute , with southern Italy particularly badly affected.

    an organised break up would at this point be favorable to they so far dysfunction and disruptive backlash's that we've seen in recent years between Greece , Brexit and the ongoing instability in Italy and Spain.

    None of thees results are actually all that shocking , the negative feeling towards the EU and those in power is a common thread across Europe, in fact globally their is strong anti establishment sentiment , France and the Netherlands up next lets see how that goes.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 67,512 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    his is now inevitably what needs to happen , those at the head of the EU and may of the member states are so out of touch with the people they are supposed to represent that they are starting to loose control altogether. Its pretty evident at this stage that the bank bailouts were unwanted as are the throngs of economic migrants wandering across Europe at the minute , with southern Italy particularly badly affected.

    an organised break up would at this point be favorable to they so far dysfunction and disruptive backlash's that we've seen in recent years between Greece , Brexit and the ongoing instability in Italy and Spain.

    None of thees results are actually all that shocking , the negative feeling towards the EU and those in power is a common thread across Europe, in fact globally their is strong anti establishment sentiment , France and the Netherlands up next lets see how that goes.


    The two of you should try and get your 'opinions' from as wide a variety of sources as possible, it dilutes the sensational scaryness, honestly. The Italians voted NOT to change the current way of doing things.
    Here is one for instance.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/05/referendum-win-may-lead-nowhere-for-five-star-and-northern-league


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,802 ✭✭✭✭suicide_circus


    seamus wrote: »
    Another politician placing his ego above national interests.

    Pinning your career to the outcome of a referendum is fairly universally known to be a really dumb idea. Everyone who dislikes you will vote against your referendum to make you stand down, regardless of the content of the actual referendum. And very few politicians have approval ratings above 50%.

    Cameron learned this earlier this year and now this idiot has too.

    This is an interesting one though because the referendum had basically nothing to do with EU membership at all. The media has spun it as pro-EU versus anti-EU because that's how the parties are aligned, but the outcome of the referendum meant nothing for EU membership.

    The worry is that now the PM has stood down, an election will be called that anti-EU sides will capitalise on.

    But that's far from certain. A "No" vote, much like referendums here, has significant chunks of people who actually are voting on the constitution, and not on the government. Plus, with their "protest" vote out of the way, many voters will feel like they've had their say; those votes don't necessarily translate into support for a far-right party, but rather a re-organisation of the existing parties.

    One of the issues we have here in Ireland with media is that much of our media follows the lead of the UK media and feeds from their stories. The UK media have largely doubled-down on Brexit now and are looking to put a positive spin on it; any sniff that there's anti-EU sentiment elsewhere in the EU makes it look like the UK was "ahead of the curve" and hadn't just lost it's mind.
    Much better for politicians to be slithery teflon coated bastards devoid of a single genuinely held principle that would say the sky is green if it meant 30 more seconds gorging themselves from the trough.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16 GiantTcr


    Italy votes against economic reform. Follows the Brexit/Trump tendency for populist protest voting - whether it is good for them or not. Italians have spurned a splendid opportunity, by a truly reforming prime minister, to overhaul a non fit for purpose political structure.
    And plunge Italy, and Europe, into further turmoil.
    Serious problems ahead now for Italy. Bailouts, rescue packages, bankrupt banks.
    Talk about turkeys voting for Christmas. Even the turkeys wouldnt have been this stupid.

    Economic reform? It's too little too late. The words European and economic don't mix very well. The people made the right decision. Forza Italia!


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,802 ✭✭✭✭suicide_circus


    Marty Schulz knows the writing is on the wall and is exiting stage left


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,839 ✭✭✭Jelle1880


    So many people that seem to swallow the media's line that this is about the EU and a people rising up against it.

    It's not.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭pumpkin4life


    Isn't talk of Italy leaving the Euro now on the cards? This is great news.

    Unfortunately, we'll be the last fùckers to get out.

    Who will tell us what to do now?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 337 ✭✭Oodoov


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    The EU free market is a good thing but the same old despicable beaurocratic faces Juncker, Van Rumpouy, Merkel at el leading the way and with some awful ideas and policy are turning people against it.

    Watch LePen storm France next year and the EU is finished in my opinion.

    It was always going to fail imo. The latest thing from the EU is making people feel guilty about being a nationalist within their own country like having pride at being French, Italian, German, Irish etc... is a bad thing. Fcuk right off.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Much better for politicians to be slithery teflon coated bastards devoid of a single genuinely held principle that would say the sky is green if it meant 30 more seconds gorging themselves from the trough.
    If you don't start making more sense, we're going to have to put you in a home.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Oodoov wrote: »
    It was always going to fail imo. The latest thing from the EU is making people feel guilty about being a nationalist within their own country like having pride at being French, Italian, German, Irish etc... is a bad thing. Fcuk right off.
    What part of the EU exactly has been doing this?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,966 ✭✭✭Patser


    So last night I was wondering would this be good news for Ireland, what with the Euros imminent collapse maybe cancelling out the Brexit Sterling drop.

    And sure enough within minutes of the announcement Sterling started to rocket, since this result was going to collapse Italian banks, ruin their country and lead to the Euros final, total demise.

    Now 12 hours later the Euro is actually doing better vs Sterling than it was on Friday, and looking to get back down to roughly where it's been bouncing for the last month?

    I know some analysts were saying the Euro was already anticipating the result but I'm still confused.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Patser wrote: »
    So last night I was wondering would this be good news for Ireland, what with the Euros imminent collapse maybe cancelling out the Brexit Sterling drop.

    And sure enough within minutes of the announcement Sterling started to rocket, since this result was going to collapse Italian banks, ruin their country and lead to the Euros final, total demise.

    Now 12 hours later the Euro is actually doing better vs Sterling than it was on Friday, and looking to get back down to roughly where it's been bouncing for the last month?

    I know some analysts were saying the Euro was already anticipating the result but I'm still confused.
    Right now with Trump and Brexit, the currency markets are incredibly jittery. Sterling has been clawing back some value in recent weeks despite an increase in uncertainty about Brexit - because Trump's win is good news for the UK. But only a little. And the Euro is the last of the 3 major currencies; if they're all shaky at the same time, as they are right now, then the predictability becomes tough - where some people bail out of the euro to buy USD or GBP, other people see the drop in the Euro as a good opportunity to bail out of some USD or GBP funds. And so the euro comes back up again.

    There's more up and down fun to come. If May's government may not be able to Brexit without a parliamentary vote, France and their presidential elections, Trump ever increasing sh1tstorm of craziness and he's not even in power yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,038 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    LePen is still a very dirty word in France. Absolutely no chance of her storming anything.

    Agreed, will possibly win the first round, but crushed in the next round. The favourite to win that election Fillon running a very hardline style campaign will appeal to those worried about immigration, terrorism, but more crucially does not have the stigma of been a Le Pen.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,966 ✭✭✭Patser


    RobertKK wrote: »
    Matteo Renzi will be told, it is close to Christmas, we wants our holidays, hold on...

    He missed their call last night,

    So they're calling again, saying please stay, change your mind and hang on.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/1205/836548-italy-pm-resignation/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭KingBrian2


    Jelle1880 wrote: »
    So many people that seem to swallow the media's line that this is about the EU and a people rising up against it.

    It's not.

    Yes but it is a public outcry and the EU takes the hit for bad governance in all these countries. You don't have to be an expert economist to know that most of Europe had massive inflation before the € ever came around or when the EU was set up. Too many misinformed and uneducated people don't even know their own countries history and the disastrous economic policies in the 80's. The truth is Europe was closer to a federal organization in the 80's than it is today. The populist rhetoric paint an alternative view of the world that does not exist.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    KingBrian2 wrote: »
    Yes but it is a public outcry and the EU takes the hit for bad governance in all these countries. You don't have to be an expert economist to know that most of Europe had massive inflation before the € ever came around or when the EU was set up. Too many misinformed and uneducated people don't even know their own countries history and the disastrous economic policies in the 80's. The truth is Europe was closer to a federal organization in the 80's than it is today. The populist rhetoric paint an alternative view of the world that does not exist.
    +1
    Governments always deflect. Have done since day dot. If it's not the EU, it's the immigrants. If it's not the immigrants, it's the gypsies. If it's not the gypsies, it's the poor. If it's not the poor, it's the lefties.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭Butters1979


    The referendum was about government reform and nothing to do with Europe or ‘Italexit’. But because the prime minister said he would resign if it was rejected meant a lot of people saw an opportunity to force change. Those who voted against did not necessarily disagree with the reform but instead disliked the prime minister and wanted him gone. This could result in a general election and then we will see if they vote pro or anti EU. You can reform the government later, the opportunity to force change was what drove the result here. This is not a protest vote, this is the public using the only power they have, their vote, as a tool to get an election going. This is democracy at its best, not its worst. There’s huge demand for big change in Italy, and they may well get it.

    On a side note, those calling the Austrian election a victory, it was indeed a technical victory. But a far right candidate got 44% of the vote. That’s an insane swing to the right in a country that’s been so liberal for so long. 10 years ago or even 5 years ago a far right candidate getting double figures in an Austrian election would have been considered worrying. Who knows if this is peak ‘swing to the right’ or there’s more momentum to come. I seriously doubt those 44% are going to swing back until they get their victory. If it continues for a few more years, Europe is going far right.
    Think about that when it comes to le Pen, you would be hard pressed to find anyone admitting they would vote for her, but all that means is polls are probably way off, as those who won't admit they will vote for her in a poll will still vote for her in an election. I don't think she'll win, but I don't think it will be as heavy a defeat as a lot are expecting.

    As for the OP’s post, he has an idea that those who voted in a way he disagrees with are stupid or uneducated and that if they were smarter or just more educated they would vote the way he agrees with. This is the highest level of ignorance. Not only does he see difference of opinion to him as an intellect or education level issue, he as completely failed to comprehend the motivation behind those that voted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 67,512 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The referendum was about government reform and nothing to do with Europe or ‘Italexit’. But because the prime minister said he would resign if it was rejected meant a lot of people saw an opportunity to force change. Those who voted against did not necessarily disagree with the reform but instead disliked the prime minister and wanted him gone. This could result in a general election and then we will see if they vote pro or anti EU. You can reform the government later, the opportunity to force change was what drove the result here. This is not a protest vote, this is the public using the only power they have, their vote, as a tool to get an election going. This is democracy at its best, not its worst. There’s huge demand for big change in Italy, and they may well get it.

    On a side note, those calling the Austrian election a victory, it was indeed a technical victory. But a far right candidate got 44% of the vote. That’s an insane swing to the right in a country that’s been so liberal for so long. 10 years ago or even 5 years ago a far right candidate getting double figures in an Austrian election would have been considered worrying. Who knows if this is peak ‘swing to the right’ or there’s more momentum to come. I seriously doubt those 44% are going to swing back until they get their victory. If it continues for a few more years, Europe is going far right.

    As for the OP’s post, he has an idea that those who voted in a way he disagrees with are stupid or uneducated and that if they were smarter or just more educated they would vote the way he agrees with. This is the highest level of ignorance. Not only does he see difference of opinion to him as and intellect or education level issue, he as completely failed to comprehend the motivation behind those that voted.

    I thought they voted to stay the same - to resist change?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭Butters1979


    I thought they voted to stay the same - to resist change?

    Really? I'm not sure why you aren't seeing this. They voted against government reform, knowing it would cause their PM to resign. They specifically voted against the reform because of this, rather than their opinion on the reform itself. (well some did, some voted against purely because they didn't like the centralisation of power).

    What part of triggering the PM resigning and a potential early general election do you not see as change?


  • Registered Users Posts: 67,512 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Really? I'm not sure why you aren't seeing this. They voted against government reform, knowing it would cause their PM to resign. They specifically voted against the reform because of this, rather than their opinion on the reform itself. (well some did, some voted against purely because they didn't like the centralisation of power).

    What part of triggering the PM resigning and a potential early general election do you not see as change?

    So in that respect it is the same as Brexit. Cutting your nose off to spite your face.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,484 ✭✭✭Fighting Tao


    Something something cake....


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